Economy
Further Downside in Sight for Guinness Nigeria Plc

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new report by Cordros Captial Ltd has revealed that the stock of Guinness Nigeria Plc will see further decline.
Since Guinness released its disappointing first half 2016/17 result on January 26, its share price has, justifiably, fallen by 2.3 percent.
The selloffs notwithstanding, the new report said it anticipates further decline (13%) in the share price from current level (N65.00), driven by slower-than-expected performance recovery over the near term, and importantly, the potential dilutive impact of the proposed capital raising exercise. The report further said hopes that Guinness will overturn the current loss after tax in the second half (January-June 2017) remains to be seen and forecasts loss to expand to N5.1 billion by year end on persistent cost pressure.
The vulnerability of costs to foreign exchange fluctuations remains elevated, as FX scarcity is expected to persist amid tamer supply outlook.
Although flexibility over the adjustment of unit prices has slightly improved (across the FMCG universe) with the reality of local and imported inflation, we think the impact on Guinness’ margins will be muted by higher risk of negative mix, considering the severity of the weakened aggregate purchasing power.
Brewery products do not belong to the category of consumer goods (food and staples) which have lesser price elasticity even in Nigeria’s current episode of depressed disposable income.
The Board recently received shareholder approval for a capital raise of N40 billion via rights issue and it expects that the rights will be offered to shareholders at N60 per share, thus potentially increasing the shares outstanding by 44 percent assuming all current shareholders exercise their rights.
The dilutive impact of the new issues was also taken into consideration in arriving at our new target price of N56.72 (previously N78.24).
On the positive, the deployment of the rights proceeds to the settlement of outstanding debt (at 137% of equity in H1-16/17) should have visible impact on profitability by taming finance charges (at 5-year CAGR of 70% by end-2016FY).
Worthy of note in the latest Q2-16/17 result was the 29.8% y/y and 58.4% q/q growth in revenue, achieved through a combination of increased sales from exports, spirits expansion, and continued resilience of the value beer category. We think these factors will remain important drivers of growth
(+24% in 2017FY), more so, given the renewed commitment to route-toconsumers (a major weak spot in GUINNESS’ operation).
Full analysis here: file:///C:/Users/USER/Desktop/Photos/Guinness-Nig-Q2-2017.pdf
Economy
Flour Mills Supports 2026 Paris International Agricultural Show
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
For the second time, Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc is sponsoring the Paris International Agricultural Show (PIAS) as part of its strategies to fortify its ties with France.
The 2026 PIAS kicked off on February 21 and will end on March 1, with about 607,503 visitors, nearly 4,000 animals, and over 1,000 exhibitors in attendance last year, and this year’s programme has already shown signs of being bigger and better.
The theme for this year’s event is Generations Solution. It is to foster knowledge transfer from younger generations and structure processes through which knowledge can be harnessed to drive technological advancement within the global agricultural sector.
In his address on the inaugural day of the Nigerian Pavilion on February 23, the Managing Director for FMN Agro and Director of Strategic Engagement/Stakeholder Relations, Mr Sadiq Usman, said, “At FMN, our mission is Feeding and Enriching Lives Every Day.
“This is a mandate we have fulfilled through decades of economic shifts, rooted in a culture of deep resilience and constant innovation. We support this pavilion because FMN recognises that the next frontier of global Agribusiness lies in high-level technical exchange.
“We thank the France-Nigeria Business Council (FNBC), the organisers of the PIAS, and our fellow members of the Nigerian Pavilion – Dangote, BUA, Zenith, Access, and our partners at Creativo El Matador and Soilless Farm Lab— we are exceedingly pleased to work to showcase the true face of Nigerian commerce.”
Speaking on the invaluable nature of the relationship between Nigeria and France, and the FMN’s commitment to process and product innovation, Mr John G. Coumantaros, stated, “The France – Nigeria relationship is a valuable partnership built on a shared value agenda that fosters remarkable Intercontinental trade growth.
“Also, as an organisation with over six decades of transformational footprint in Nigeria and progressively across the African Continent, FMN has been unwaveringly committed to product and process innovation.
“Therefore, our continuous partnership with France for the success of the Paris International Agricultural Show further buttresses the thriving relationship between both countries.”
PIAS is one of the most widely attended agricultural shows, with thousands of people from across the world in attendance.
Economy
NEITI Backs Tinubu’s Executive Order 9 on Oil Revenue Remittances
By Adedapo Adesanya
Despite reservations from some quarters, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has praised President Bola Tinubu’s Executive Order 9, which mandates direct remittances of all government revenues from tax oil, profit oil, profit gas, and royalty oil under Production Sharing Contracts, profit sharing, and risk service contracts straight to the Federation Account.
Issued on February 13, 2026, the order aims to safeguard oil and gas revenues, curb wasteful spending, and eliminate leakages by requiring operators to pay all entitlements directly into the federation account.
NEITI executive secretary, Musa Sarkin Adar, called it “a bold step in ongoing fiscal reforms to improve financial transparency, strengthen accountability, and mobilise resources for citizens’ development,” noting that the directive aligns with Section 162 of Nigeria’s Constitution.
He noted that for 20 years, NEITI has pushed for all government revenues to flow into the Federation Account transparently, calling the move a win.
For instance, in its 2017 report titled Unremitted Funds, Economic Recovery and Oil Sector Reform, NEITI revealed that over $20 billion in due remittances had not reached the government, fueling fiscal woes and prompting high-level reforms.
Mr Adar described the order as a key milestone in Nigeria’s EITI implementation and urged amendments to align it with these reforms.
He affirmed NEITI’s role in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and pledged close collaboration with stakeholders, anti-corruption bodies, and partners to sustain transparent management of Nigeria’s mineral resources.
Meanwhile, others like the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) have kicked against the order, saying it poses a serious threat to the stability of the oil and gas industry, calling it a “direct attack” on the PIA.
Speaking at the union’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting in Abuja on Tuesday, PENGASSAN President, Mr Festus Osifo, said provisions of the order, particularly the directive to remit 30 per cent of profit oil from Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) directly to the Federation Account, could destabilise operations at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Mr Osifo firmly dispelled rumours of imminent protests by the union, despite widespread claims that the controversial executive order threatens the livelihoods of 10,000 senior staff workers at NNPC.
He noted, however, that the union had begun engagements with government officials, including the Presidential Implementation Committee, and expressed optimism that common ground would be reached.
Mr Osifo, who also serves as President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), expressed concerns that diverting the 30 per cent profit oil allocation to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), without clearly defining how the statutory management fee would be refunded to NNPC, could affect the salaries of hundreds of PENGASSAN members.
Economy
Dangote Cement Deepens Dominance, Export Activities With $1bn Sinoma Deal
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
To strengthen its domestic market dominance, drive its export activities, optimise existing operational assets and enhance production efficiency and capacity expansion, Dangote Cement Plc has sealed $1 billion strategic agreements with Sinoma International Engineering for cement projects across Africa.
The president of Dangote Industries Limited, the parent firm of Dangote Cement, Mr Aliko Dangote, disclosed that the deal reinforces the company’s long-term growth strategy and aligns with the broader aspirations of the Dangote Group’s Vision 2030.
According to him, Sinoma will construct 12 new projects and expand others for the cement organisation across Africa, helping to achieve 80 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) production capacity by 2030, while supporting the group’s overarching target of generating $100 billion in revenue within the same period.
Under the Strategic Framework Agreement, Sinoma will collaborate with Dangote Cement on the delivery of new plants, brownfield expansions, and modernisation initiatives aimed at strengthening operational performance across key markets.
The new projects include a new integrated line in Northern Nigeria with a satellite grinding unit, a new line in Ethiopia and other projects in Zambia/Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Sierra Leone and Cameroon. In Nigeria, Sinoma will also handle different projects in Itori, Apapa, Lekki, Port Harcourt and Onne.
The projects signal Dangote Cement’s sustained commitment to consolidating its leadership position within the African cement industry, while enhancing its competitiveness on the global stage.
Chairman of the Dangote Cement board, Mr Emmanuel Ikazoboh, during the agreement signing event in Lagos, explained that the new projects would enable the company to play a critical role in actualising Dangote Group’s Vision 2030.
The new projects, when completed, will increase Dangote Cement’s capacity and dominant position in Africa’s cement industry.
On his part, the Managing Director of Dangote Cement, Mr Arvind Pathak, said the agreement reflects the company’s determination to grow its investments across African markets to close supply gaps and support the continent’s infrastructural ambitions.
According to him, Dangote Cement is committed to making Africa fully self‑sufficient in cement production, creating more value and linkages, leading to increased economic activities and a reduction in unemployment.
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