Economy
Drought Pushing Food Prices up Sharply in East Africa
By Dipo Olowookere
Drought throughout East Africa has sharply curbed harvests and pushed the prices of cereals and other staple foods to unusually high levels, posing a heavy burden to households and special risks for pastoralists in the region.
Local prices of maize, sorghum and other cereals are near or at record levels in swathes of Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania, according to the latest Food Price Monitoring and Analysis Bulletin (FPMA).
Inadequate rainfall in most areas of the sub-region has put enormous strain on livestock and their keepers. Poor livestock body conditions due to pasture and water shortages and forcible culls mean animals command lower prices, leaving pastoralists with even less income to purchase basic foodstuffs.
“Sharply increasing prices are severely constraining food access for large numbers of households with alarming consequences in terms of food insecurity,” said Mario Zappacosta, FAO senior economist and coordinator of the Global Information and Early Warning System.
The trends in East Africa, where prices of staple cereals have doubled in some town markets, stand in marked contrast to the stable trend of FAO’s Food Price Index, which measures the monthly change in international prices of a basket of traded food commodities.
The difference is due to the drought that is hammering the sub-region, where food stocks were already depleted by the strong El Niño weather event that ended only last year. Poor and erratic rainfall in recent months, crucial for local growing seasons, are denting farm output.
Somalia’s maize and sorghum harvests are estimated to be 75 percent down from their usual level, and some 6.2 million people, more than half of the country’s total population, now face acute food insecurity, with the majority of those most affected living in rural areas.
Soaring prices
The FPMA Bulletin tracks food price trends on a granular level and in local terms, with an eye to flagging instances where the prices of essential food commodities increase sharply or are abnormally high.
In Mogadishu, prices of maize increased by 23 percent in January, and. the increase was even sharper in the main maize producing region of Lower Shabelle. Overall, in key market towns of central and southern Somalia, coarse grain prices in January have doubled from a year earlier.With an earlier than usual depletion of household stocks during the coming lean season and preliminary weather forecasts raising concerns for the performance of the next rainy season, prices are likely to further escalate in the coming months.
Maize prices in Arusha, United Republic of Tanzania, have almost doubled since early 2016, while they are 25 percent higher than 12 months earlier in the country’s largest city, Dar Es Salaam.
In South Sudan, food prices are now two to four times above their levels of a year earlier, exacerbated by ongoing insecurity and the significant depreciation of the local currency.
In Kenya, where eastern and coastal lowlands as well as some western areas of the Rift Valley all suffered below-average rainfall, maize prices are up by around 30 percent, with the increase somewhat contained somewhat thanks to sustained imports from Uganda.
Cereal prices aren’t the only ones rising. Beans now cost 40 percent more in Kenya than a year earlier, while in Uganda – where maize prices are now up to 75 percent higher than a year earlier – and increasing around the key border trading hub of Busia, the prices of beans and cassava flour are both about 25 percent higher than a year ago in the capital city, Kampala.
Double jeopardy for pastoralists
Drought-affected pastoral areas in the region face even harsher conditions.
In Somalia, goat prices are up to 60 percent lower than a year ago, while in pastoralist areas of Kenya the prices of goats declined by up to 30 percent over the last twelve months.
Shortages of pasture and water caused livestock deaths and reduced body mass, prompting herders to sell animals while they can, as is also occurring in drought-wracked southern Ethiopia. This also pushes up the prices of milk, which is, for instance, up 40 percent on the year in Somalia’s Gedo region.
Lower income from livestock collides with higher prices for cereals and other staple foods in a wrenching shock to terms of trade for pastoralist households. A medium-sized goat in Somalia’s Buale market was worth 114 kilograms of maize in January 2016, but at today’s prices can be traded for only 30 kilograms of the grain.
FAO uses its proprietary FPMA Tool, accessible to the public online, to monitor local markets and gather data for more than 1350 domestic price series in 91 countries around the globe in order to produce its Indicator of Food Price Anomalies.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Pathway Advisors Limited has announced its role as Lead Issuing House to a N300 billion Commercial Paper Programme for Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, reinforcing its leadership in capital market advisory and energy sector finance.
The transaction was formally concluded with the execution of programme documentation at Capital Club, Victoria Island, Lagos, following the completion of all regulatory and programme clearances. The signing ceremony marked a defining milestone in mobilising large-scale short-term capital for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
Speaking at the event, the chief executive of Pathway Advisors Limited, Mr Adekunle Alade, emphasised the strategic significance of the Commercial Paper issuance in financing working capital, thereby enabling high-growth energy businesses to scale efficiently and sustainably.
“Nigeria’s downstream energy sector is undergoing a profound transformation, accelerated by the removal of fuel subsidies, the emergence of domestic refining capacity, and rising demand for reliable product supply across the country and the broader West African region.
“Companies like Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited with a vertically integrated model, a strong track record, and a clear growth mandate are exactly the kind of issuers that the capital markets should be financing,” Mr Alade stated.
“Commercial paper, when structured appropriately, gives operationally strong businesses access to a deep and diverse pool of institutional investors, at tenors and costs that support the working capital intensity of petroleum trading and distribution. This transaction is a testament to what is achievable when credible issuers partner with experienced advisers to access the markets,” he added.
“The successful execution of this programme further affirms Pathway Advisors’ position as a trusted financial advisory and investment banking firm in complex, large-scale capital market transactions,” he stated.
In his comments, the chief executive of Pivot Integrated Energy Services Limited, Mr Babajide Babatope, described the commercial paper programme as a pivotal step in the company’s strategy to expand its supply capacity and strengthen its position as a leading integrated energy provider in Nigeria and West Africa.
“Nigeria’s downstream energy market demands scale, speed, and the right capital structure to compete effectively. This commercial paper programme gives us the financial firepower to support our growing volumes, reinforce our supply chain, and serve our customers with greater reliability across the regions we operate in,” Mr Babatope disclosed.
He noted that Pivot is one of the 20 approved off-takers in the Dangote Refinery PMS Consortium, with a target volume of 300 million litres per quarter, a position that underscores the company’s standing in Nigeria’s post-subsidy energy supply architecture. He added that the CP Programme would also support the company’s accelerating regional push, including active operations in Ghana, where Pivot has delivered over 100,000 MT since April 2025, and a planned entry into Tanzania with deliveries targeted in Q3 of 2026.
Mr Babatope further expressed appreciation to Pathway Advisors and other transaction parties for their professionalism, rigour, and commitment throughout the programme’s execution, and signalled his intention to continue deepening these partnerships as Pivot advances to subsequent phases of growth and financing.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN) has secured a $12 billion commitment from South Korea to establish a Skills Acquisition Centre in Abuja, as part of efforts to strengthen entrepreneurship and boost small businesses across Nigeria.
The chief executive of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, disclosed this over the weekend during a road walk and sensitisation campaign at Utako Market in Abuja to commemorate the 2026 World MSME Day.
According to Mr Odii, the proposed facility will provide vocational and entrepreneurial training to young Nigerians and enhance the capacity of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
He said the agency is awaiting the allocation of land by the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Administration for the project.
“We need land in the FCT to build the Skills Acquisition Centre. If the FCT Administration is unable to provide one, we will use our office premises in Idu, Abuja, because we do not want Nigeria to miss this opportunity offered by the Korean Government to support skills and vocational training,” he said.
As part of activities marking the World MSME Day, Mr Odii also announced the launch of SMEDAN’s N500 million GROW Fund, a zero-interest financing intervention designed to support small businesses across the country.
He explained that the fund would be disbursed to members of registered cooperative societies and business associations to strengthen their enterprises.
According to him, beneficiaries are expected to utilise the funds strictly for business purposes, including expanding working capital, acquiring workspaces and purchasing equipment.
“The funding is meant to support and improve their businesses. It should be used for working capital, workspaces, tools and other productive business needs. Any use outside these objectives will not be encouraged,” he said.
Mr Odii further disclosed that entrepreneurs trained by SMEDAN in Abuja would receive vocational equipment, including washing machines, barbing kits, shoemaking tools and sewing machines, to enable them to become self-reliant.
“We have identified these tools as essential to the businesses of our trainees based on the skills programmes they have undergone,” he added.
The SMEDAN boss stressed that the agency’s interventions are driven by the critical role MSMEs play in Nigeria’s economy.
“Small businesses are the heartbeat of Nigeria’s economy. By providing infrastructure, skills and financing, we are creating an enabling environment for them to grow, thrive and contribute meaningfully to national development,” he said.
Odii also revealed that the National MSME Policy would be reviewed and relaunched in November 2026 to strengthen the sector and improve its contribution to economic growth.
He called on state governments to collaborate with SMEDAN in expanding skills acquisition programmes, creating jobs, reducing poverty and supporting the economic development agenda of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has purchased two cargoes of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), marking its first-ever procurement of Middle Eastern crude as it diversifies its feedstock sources ahead of continuous expansion.
According to a report by S&P Global Commodity Insights, the two cargoes will be the first sourced by the 700,000-barrels-per-day refinery from any Middle Eastern supplier, signalling a shift from its traditional reliance on Nigerian, African, and United States crude grades.
The report said the purchases followed the resumption of oil exports from the Middle East after the United States and Iran reached an interim peace agreement that restored confidence in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The refinery, designed primarily to process Nigeria’s light sweet crude, has increasingly diversified its crude slate as operations ramp up. The company sources crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.
The refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Plc had agreed on the supply of between 13 and 15 cargoes of Nigerian crude monthly in Naira, but the volumes often fluctuate. In May, the state oil company allocated seven cargoes to the plant, up from five in previous months.
The chief executive of the Dangote Refinery, Mr David Bird, had previously disclosed that these constraints had compelled the company to seek additional crude sources outside Nigeria.
According to S&P Global, the refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. The report noted that in 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.
The report added that the refinery’s expansion plans would further increase its crude requirements. Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.
Business Post understands that since NNPC cargoes are cheaper for the refinery because of lower shipping costs, importation of crude could translate to higher fuel prices, with Nigerians possibly buying as high as N1,300 – N1,400 at the pump.
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