Economy
East African Economies to Maintain Growth on Rising Commodity Prices
By Dipo Olowookere
Ongoing improvement in East Africa’s economic prospects is forecast by Ecobank’s research team in the newly published East Africa section of its flagship financial website, AfricaFICC (https://Ecobank.com/AfricaFICC).
Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are the regions’ economic powerhouses and are enjoying a period of significant economic growth – their Gross Domestic Products are forecast to grow by between 5.2 percent and 8.5 percent this year – supported by ongoing reforms and the improvement in commodity prices which has driven up export revenues.
Much of the region is reliant on agricultural crops and commodities for export earnings, but continued economic optimism looks assured. The combined effects of further export diversification, improvements in infrastructure, industrialisation, major oil discoveries, and the potential for significant growth in commercial services, look set to turbocharge their economies.
East Africa is a well-integrated Anglophone trade hub, but the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could pave the way for the entire African continent to capitalise on its enormous growth potential. Ever-closer economic co-operation and integration will provide the bedrock for the continent’s increased competitiveness globally.
Ecobank Kenya Managing Director and Regional Executive of Central, Eastern and Southern African (CESA) countries, Mr Samuel Adjei, stated that, “The East African nations look set for continued and sustained economic growth, assisted by commodity prices and the prospect of significant oil production.
The region is a world leader in disruptive Fintech, illustrated by the resounding success of mobile money and Kenya, together with Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, represent a regional powerhouse for global commercial services.”
Dr Edward George, Ecobank’s Head of Group Research said: “The countries in East Africa, most of them members of the East African Community (EAC), make up one of the most dynamic commercial and economic regions in Africa.
“East Africa is a leading exporter of tea, coffee, cut flowers and minerals to world markets, is a financial, logistics and services hub, and has some of the most diverse intra-regional trade flows in Africa.
“Consumers in countries like Kenya have been transacting by mobile for more than a decade and we are now seeing East African tech hubs in Nairobi, Kigali and Kampala take a leadership role in developing innovations to address long-standing African challenges. It’s an exciting time for East Africa.”
Kenya, with its diversified commodity exports, which include tea, horticultural goods and coffee, has started producing crude oil. But in the absence of a pipeline it must all be transported to the coast by truck. Both Kenya and Uganda have proposed rival pipelines, and until a decision is made on which will proceed first, Kenya’s oil production will be constrained
Ethiopia is benefitting from strong foreign direct investment in infrastructure and industrial projects. Its coffee and gold exports have been aided by higher commodity prices, although higher oil prices could constrain its economy which is dependent on imports of petroleum products.
Transport, construction, mining, tourism and commercial services are the driving forces behind Tanzania’s strong economic performance, as it upgrades its infrastructure and industrialisation.
Uganda has diversified agricultural exports, led by coffee (it is Africa’s largest exporter of Robusta). The country plans to start exporting crude oil in 2019 and its service sector, which accounts for 52% of GDP, continues to expand strongly, supported by an emerging tech innovation sector.
Rwanda’s agricultural sector is benefitting from improved weather conditions and strengthening commodity prices are bolstering its mining exports. The government’s strong support for innovation is aimed at turning Rwanda into innovators’ preferred ‘Proof of Concept’ country in Africa.
Burundi’s fragile political situation – which has led to the suspension of donor aid – has weakened its economy, which is heavily dependent on agriculture and minerals.
The ongoing civil conflict in South Sudan has severely constrained economic growth and development of the country’s transport and social infrastructure. The country’s significant oil reserves, fertile soil with abundant water supplies and growing population could lay the foundations for strong growth in the future.
Ecobank’s flagship Africa Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) online resource provides key facts for businesses and investors on the economies of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the key sectors of activity.
The website gives a country-by country analysis, including the general economic outlook, details of the FX, FI and banking sectors, and overview of the energy and soft commodity sectors, as well as of key trade flows.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s economy, measured by gross domestic product (GDP), grew by 4.07 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced the development in its latest GDP report for Q4 2025 on Friday.
The latest figure represents an improvement over the 3.76 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, signalling sustained recovery across key sectors of the economy. The growth rate was faster than the third quarter’s 3.98 per cent.
The report confirmed that Nigeria’s oil sector grew 6.79 per cent year-on-year and the non-oil part of the economy expanded by 3.99 per cent.
Nigeria’s average daily oil production stood at 1.58 million barrels per day in the final three months of 2025. That was lower than the third quarter’s output of 1.64 million barrels per day but higher than the 1.54 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Breakdown of the data showed that the agriculture sector grew by 4.00 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025. This marks a significant increase compared to the 2.54 per cent growth recorded in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting improved output and resilience in the sector.
The industry sector also recorded a stronger performance during the period under review. It grew by 3.88 per cent year-on-year, up from 2.49 per cent posted in the fourth quarter of 2024. The improvement suggests enhanced activity in manufacturing, construction, and related industrial sub-sectors.
The services sector maintained its position as a major growth driver, expanding by 4.15 per cent in Q4 2025. However, this was slightly lower than the 4.75 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
Overall, the 4.07 per cent GDP growth in the final quarter of 2025 underscores broad-based expansion across agriculture, industry, and services, despite a marginal moderation in services growth.
The Q4 performance provides further evidence of strengthening economic momentum, with improvements recorded in both agriculture and industry compared to the previous year.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
For the second time, Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc is sponsoring the Paris International Agricultural Show (PIAS) as part of its strategies to fortify its ties with France.
The 2026 PIAS kicked off on February 21 and will end on March 1, with about 607,503 visitors, nearly 4,000 animals, and over 1,000 exhibitors in attendance last year, and this year’s programme has already shown signs of being bigger and better.
The theme for this year’s event is Generations Solution. It is to foster knowledge transfer from younger generations and structure processes through which knowledge can be harnessed to drive technological advancement within the global agricultural sector.
In his address on the inaugural day of the Nigerian Pavilion on February 23, the Managing Director for FMN Agro and Director of Strategic Engagement/Stakeholder Relations, Mr Sadiq Usman, said, “At FMN, our mission is Feeding and Enriching Lives Every Day.
“This is a mandate we have fulfilled through decades of economic shifts, rooted in a culture of deep resilience and constant innovation. We support this pavilion because FMN recognises that the next frontier of global Agribusiness lies in high-level technical exchange.
“We thank the France-Nigeria Business Council (FNBC), the organisers of the PIAS, and our fellow members of the Nigerian Pavilion – Dangote, BUA, Zenith, Access, and our partners at Creativo El Matador and Soilless Farm Lab— we are exceedingly pleased to work to showcase the true face of Nigerian commerce.”
Speaking on the invaluable nature of the relationship between Nigeria and France, and the FMN’s commitment to process and product innovation, Mr John G. Coumantaros, stated, “The France – Nigeria relationship is a valuable partnership built on a shared value agenda that fosters remarkable Intercontinental trade growth.
“Also, as an organisation with over six decades of transformational footprint in Nigeria and progressively across the African Continent, FMN has been unwaveringly committed to product and process innovation.
“Therefore, our continuous partnership with France for the success of the Paris International Agricultural Show further buttresses the thriving relationship between both countries.”
PIAS is one of the most widely attended agricultural shows, with thousands of people from across the world in attendance.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Despite reservations from some quarters, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has praised President Bola Tinubu’s Executive Order 9, which mandates direct remittances of all government revenues from tax oil, profit oil, profit gas, and royalty oil under Production Sharing Contracts, profit sharing, and risk service contracts straight to the Federation Account.
Issued on February 13, 2026, the order aims to safeguard oil and gas revenues, curb wasteful spending, and eliminate leakages by requiring operators to pay all entitlements directly into the federation account.
NEITI executive secretary, Musa Sarkin Adar, called it “a bold step in ongoing fiscal reforms to improve financial transparency, strengthen accountability, and mobilise resources for citizens’ development,” noting that the directive aligns with Section 162 of Nigeria’s Constitution.
He noted that for 20 years, NEITI has pushed for all government revenues to flow into the Federation Account transparently, calling the move a win.
For instance, in its 2017 report titled Unremitted Funds, Economic Recovery and Oil Sector Reform, NEITI revealed that over $20 billion in due remittances had not reached the government, fueling fiscal woes and prompting high-level reforms.
Mr Adar described the order as a key milestone in Nigeria’s EITI implementation and urged amendments to align it with these reforms.
He affirmed NEITI’s role in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and pledged close collaboration with stakeholders, anti-corruption bodies, and partners to sustain transparent management of Nigeria’s mineral resources.
Meanwhile, others like the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) have kicked against the order, saying it poses a serious threat to the stability of the oil and gas industry, calling it a “direct attack” on the PIA.
Speaking at the union’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting in Abuja on Tuesday, PENGASSAN President, Mr Festus Osifo, said provisions of the order, particularly the directive to remit 30 per cent of profit oil from Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) directly to the Federation Account, could destabilise operations at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Mr Osifo firmly dispelled rumours of imminent protests by the union, despite widespread claims that the controversial executive order threatens the livelihoods of 10,000 senior staff workers at NNPC.
He noted, however, that the union had begun engagements with government officials, including the Presidential Implementation Committee, and expressed optimism that common ground would be reached.
Mr Osifo, who also serves as President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), expressed concerns that diverting the 30 per cent profit oil allocation to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), without clearly defining how the statutory management fee would be refunded to NNPC, could affect the salaries of hundreds of PENGASSAN members.
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