Economy
East African Economies to Maintain Growth on Rising Commodity Prices
By Dipo Olowookere
Ongoing improvement in East Africa’s economic prospects is forecast by Ecobank’s research team in the newly published East Africa section of its flagship financial website, AfricaFICC (https://Ecobank.com/AfricaFICC).
Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda are the regions’ economic powerhouses and are enjoying a period of significant economic growth – their Gross Domestic Products are forecast to grow by between 5.2 percent and 8.5 percent this year – supported by ongoing reforms and the improvement in commodity prices which has driven up export revenues.
Much of the region is reliant on agricultural crops and commodities for export earnings, but continued economic optimism looks assured. The combined effects of further export diversification, improvements in infrastructure, industrialisation, major oil discoveries, and the potential for significant growth in commercial services, look set to turbocharge their economies.
East Africa is a well-integrated Anglophone trade hub, but the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could pave the way for the entire African continent to capitalise on its enormous growth potential. Ever-closer economic co-operation and integration will provide the bedrock for the continent’s increased competitiveness globally.
Ecobank Kenya Managing Director and Regional Executive of Central, Eastern and Southern African (CESA) countries, Mr Samuel Adjei, stated that, “The East African nations look set for continued and sustained economic growth, assisted by commodity prices and the prospect of significant oil production.
The region is a world leader in disruptive Fintech, illustrated by the resounding success of mobile money and Kenya, together with Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda, represent a regional powerhouse for global commercial services.”
Dr Edward George, Ecobank’s Head of Group Research said: “The countries in East Africa, most of them members of the East African Community (EAC), make up one of the most dynamic commercial and economic regions in Africa.
“East Africa is a leading exporter of tea, coffee, cut flowers and minerals to world markets, is a financial, logistics and services hub, and has some of the most diverse intra-regional trade flows in Africa.
“Consumers in countries like Kenya have been transacting by mobile for more than a decade and we are now seeing East African tech hubs in Nairobi, Kigali and Kampala take a leadership role in developing innovations to address long-standing African challenges. It’s an exciting time for East Africa.”
Kenya, with its diversified commodity exports, which include tea, horticultural goods and coffee, has started producing crude oil. But in the absence of a pipeline it must all be transported to the coast by truck. Both Kenya and Uganda have proposed rival pipelines, and until a decision is made on which will proceed first, Kenya’s oil production will be constrained
Ethiopia is benefitting from strong foreign direct investment in infrastructure and industrial projects. Its coffee and gold exports have been aided by higher commodity prices, although higher oil prices could constrain its economy which is dependent on imports of petroleum products.
Transport, construction, mining, tourism and commercial services are the driving forces behind Tanzania’s strong economic performance, as it upgrades its infrastructure and industrialisation.
Uganda has diversified agricultural exports, led by coffee (it is Africa’s largest exporter of Robusta). The country plans to start exporting crude oil in 2019 and its service sector, which accounts for 52% of GDP, continues to expand strongly, supported by an emerging tech innovation sector.
Rwanda’s agricultural sector is benefitting from improved weather conditions and strengthening commodity prices are bolstering its mining exports. The government’s strong support for innovation is aimed at turning Rwanda into innovators’ preferred ‘Proof of Concept’ country in Africa.
Burundi’s fragile political situation – which has led to the suspension of donor aid – has weakened its economy, which is heavily dependent on agriculture and minerals.
The ongoing civil conflict in South Sudan has severely constrained economic growth and development of the country’s transport and social infrastructure. The country’s significant oil reserves, fertile soil with abundant water supplies and growing population could lay the foundations for strong growth in the future.
Ecobank’s flagship Africa Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) online resource provides key facts for businesses and investors on the economies of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and the key sectors of activity.
The website gives a country-by country analysis, including the general economic outlook, details of the FX, FI and banking sectors, and overview of the energy and soft commodity sectors, as well as of key trade flows.
By Dipo Olowookere
Sell-offs in mid- and large-cap stocks crashed the local bourse by 0.05 per cent on Monday, with almost all the major sectors closing lower.
The insurance counter depreciated by 1.69 per cent, the consumer goods space lost 1.07 per cent, the energy segment shed 0.14 per cent, and the industrial goods index contracted by 0.06 per cent. But the banking sector gained 0.78 per cent, which was not enough to offset the losses printed by the others.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) moderated by 118.66 points to 247,238.74 points from 247,357.40 points, and the market capitalisation receded by N77 billion to N159.511 trillion from N159.588 trillion.
Investor sentiment was weak yesterday after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended with 27 advancing equities and 32 declining equities, implying a negative market breadth index.
Transcorp Power collapsed by 10.00 per cent to N219.60, SUNU Assurances also fell by 10.00 per cent to N3.24, International Breweries slipped by 9.85 per cent to N12.35, Neimeth depreciated by 9.78 per cent to N8.30, and Austin Laz lost 9.64 per cent to trade at N3.28.
Conversely, Thomas Wyatt appreciated by 9.92 per cent to N3.99, Lasaco Assurance gained 9.89 per cent to quote at N2.00, CMFC surged by 9.18 per cent to N3.45, Chams jumped by 7.78 per cent to N4.85, and NGX Group flew higher by 6.96 per cent to N158.30.
The level of activity increased during the session, as market participants bought and sold 638.0 million shares for N57.2 billion in 71,240 deals versus the 565.5 million shares worth N29.9 billion transacted in 53,688 deals last Friday, indicating a rise in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 12.82 per cent, 91.30 per cent, and 32.69 per cent, respectively.
Access Holdings led the activity chart yesterday after trading 47.6 million stocks valued at N1.4 billion, FCMB exchanged 40.3 million equities for N478.3 million, First Holdco sold 34.2 million shares valued at N4.3 billion, Champion Breweries transacted 33.2 million stocks worth N372.2 million, and Zenith Bank traded 25.4 million equities valued at N3.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The major crude oil grades fell more than 7 per cent on Monday, settling at their lowest levels in over a week, after the United States abruptly suspended a campaign of air strikes against Iran.
Brent crude futures declined by $8.42 or 8.7 per cent to settle at $88.36 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures shrank by $6.70 or 7.5 per cent to close at $82.61 per barrel.
Brent futures last week surpassed $100 a barrel as the conflict, which has reduced oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, spilt over to the Red Sea. This hindered exports from the world’s top exporter, Saudi Arabia, via the Bab el-Mandeb strait to Asia.
However, Iran said it had halted retaliatory attacks against American allies in the Middle East as the US refrained from attacking Iran for the second night in a row.
The overnight lull in attacks came ahead of a key meeting scheduled in Washington between President Donald Trump and Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu.
The visit is scheduled for Tuesday, exactly five months since US and Israeli forces launched a wide campaign of air strikes on Iranian targets.
Iran has pushed back, attacking US allies in the Middle East and essentially closing the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint waterway through which a massive amount of oil and gas normally passes en route to global markets.
President Trump on Monday said the US is holding “good talks” with Iran, and that “there’s a good chance that something could happen” in regard to a potential deal. He also threatened “strong military action” if diplomacy fails.
Saudi Arabia’s air defences intercepted and destroyed drones launched from Iraq as Yemen’s Houthis claimed they had targeted sensitive crude oil supply and transport sites linking eastern Saudi Arabia to the critical Red Sea oil export hub of Yanbu.
Shipping data from Kpler showed that fewer than 10 commodity vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz daily during the weekend.
Also, ship traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell on Sunday after Yemeni Houthis attacked Saudi oil installations along the Red Sea coast, although a third Chinese supertanker exited via the waterway.
Kazakhstan, among the world’s 10 biggest oil producers, has more than halved its daily oil output following the closure of the main exporting terminal in Russia’s Black Sea over drone attacks.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Those interested in buying or selling the shares of Aluminium Extrusion Plc on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited will not be able to do so for now.
This is because trading activities on the company’s securities on the Nigerian bourse have been suspended by the NGX Regulation Limited.
The reason for this is that the organisation has failed to submit its financial statements as required by the listing rules for the perusal of the investing community.
After being given grace periods to file the results, the board of the firm has not done the needful, necessitating the wielding of the stick on the entity.
A notice from Customs Street disclosed that the suspension became effective last Wednesday. It will be lifted when the financial results are submitted.
“In accordance with the default filing rules, the suspension of trading in the shares of the company shall be lifted upon the submission of the relevant financial statements,” a part of the notice said.
Business Post reports that Aluminium Extrusion has not filed its financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, more than three months after it was required to submit its financial performance for the last fiscal year.
“Trading license holders and the investing public are hereby notified that pursuant to Rule 3.1, Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing, (Default Filing Rules), which provides that if an issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the cure period1, the exchange will: a) send to the issuer a second filing deficiency notification within two business days after the end of the cure period; b) suspend trading in the issuer’s securities; and c) notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the market within 24 hours of the suspension.
“Trading in the shares of Aluminium Extrusion Plc has been suspended from the facilities of Nigerian Exchange Limited effective Wednesday, July 22, 2026, for not filing its Audited Financial Statements for the year ended December 31, 2025,” the disclosure stated.
Shares of Aluminium Extrusion last traded on the domestic stock exchange at N9.90 per unit.
