Economy
Nigeria’s Creditworthiness Improves by Higher Commodity Prices—Report
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A new report by the UBS Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office (CIO) has revealed that Nigeria’s creditworthiness improved by higher commodity prices and stronger economic outlook.
The report on Africa’s sovereign credit prospects, an important benchmark used to evaluate the risk of investing in a country, concludes that after years of deterioration, the credit outlook of many African sovereign issuers was stabilizing or improving.
Africa’s sovereigns have been hit by a range of issues in recent years, including the end of the commodity super cycle, depreciating exchange rates and mounting public debt ratios. Energy exporters, such as Nigeria, were particularly affected.
Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has seen several credit rating downgrades in recent quarters, but the recent recovery in energy prices and the potential for further moderate upside should bode well for the sovereign’s creditworthiness.
According to the report’s findings, however, macroeconomic prospects in the region are beginning to improve.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts real GDP growth to almost double this year in Sub-Saharan Africa, reaching 2.6 percent, while fiscal and current account deficits are expected to have peaked at 4.5 percent and 4 percent last year, respectively.
Key drivers supporting the outlook include rising global growth and trade, a modest recovery in energy and base metal prices, more competitive exchange rates for African currencies, and structural reforms in a range of countries.
Head of Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, France and Belgium International at UBS Wealth Management, Ali Janoudi, disclosed that, “The modest energy price recovery over the past 18 months has supported the growth potential of many African economies, but especially Nigeria.
“The more optimistic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa should also affect Nigeria’s economy going forward as the region embarks on a new phase of development.”
On his part, Head of Emerging Market Asset Allocation at UBS Wealth Management’s CIO, Michael Bolliger, noted that, “We expect Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, to recover from recession this year although it is unlikely that growth rates will return to previous highs.
“A determining factor for the country’s growth outlook will be a successful continuation of the Naira’s exchange rate liberalization.”
UBS provides financial advice and solutions to wealthy, institutional and corporate clients worldwide, as well as private clients in Switzerland.
The operational structure of the Group is comprised of our Corporate Center and five business divisions: Wealth Management, Wealth Management Americas, Personal & Corporate Banking, Asset Management and the Investment Bank. UBS’s strategy builds on the strengths of all of its businesses and focuses its efforts on areas in which it excels, while seeking to capitalize on the compelling growth prospects in the businesses and regions in which it operates, in order to generate attractive and sustainable returns for its shareholders.
All of its businesses are capital-efficient and benefit from a strong competitive position in their targeted markets.
UBS is present in all major financial centres worldwide. It has offices in 54 countries, with about 34 percent of its employees working in the Americas, 35 percent in Switzerland, 18 percent in the rest of Europe, the Middle East and Africa and 13 percent in Asia Pacific.
UBS Group AG employs approximately 60,000 people around the world. Its shares are listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 0.91 per cent growth was recorded by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, May 22, after the share prices of four securities ended in green.
According to data, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc went up by N15.61 to N179.67 per share from N164.06 per share, Newrest Asl Plc grew by N6.11 to N67.26 per unit from N61.15 per unit, Food Concepts Plc appreciated by 17 Kobo to N2.75 per share from N2.58 per share, and Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc added 6 Kobo to sell at N25.50 per unit compared with the previous day’s N25.44 per unit.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation chalked up N23.22 billion to settle at N2.561 trillion versus Thursday’s N2.538 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 38.81 points to 4,281.28 points from 4,242.47 points.
During the session, the price of Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was down by N3.13 to N71.07 per share from N74.20 per share.
The activity chart showed that the volume of securities transacted by the market participants decreased yesterday by 81.6 per cent to 590,339 units from the 3.2 million units recorded on Thursday, as the number of deals shrank by 28.6 per cent to 30 deals from the 42 deals recorded a day earlier, while the value of securities increased by 0.5 per cent to N95.3 million from the preceding session’s N94.8 million.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc closed the day as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with a turnover of 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 61.2 million units traded for N4.1 billion.
The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was GNI Plc, with the sale of 3.4 billion units for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units exchanged for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange witnessed a decline in transactions on Friday despite closing higher by 0.22 per cent on the back of sustained bargain-hunting.
During the last trading session of the week, investors transacted 711.9 million equities valued at N29.1 billion in 62,386 deals compared with the 1.1 billion equities worth N31.0 billion traded in 62,448 deals in the previous day, indicating a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 35.28 per cent, 6.13 per cent, and 0.10 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank closed the day as the most active stock with the sale of 198.1 million units for N4.6 billion, Access Holdings traded 69.7 million units worth N1.8 billion, Mutual Benefits exchanged 42.7 million units valued at N197.4 million, Japaul transacted 33.9 million units worth N134.4 million, and Zenith Bank sold 24.4 million units valued at N3.2 billion.
Yesterday, the industrial goods index rose by 0.53 per cent, the consumer goods sector jumped 0.28 per cent, the banking industry improved by 0.25 per cent, and the energy counter soared by 0.18 per cent, while the insurance space shed 0.18 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 536.98 points to finish at 249,712.37 points compared with the previous day’s 249,175.39 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N344 billion to N160.077 trillion from N159.733 trillion.
Aluminium Extrusion and DAAR Communications expanded by 10.00 per cent each to sell for N9.90 and N2.09, respectively, RT Briscoe surged by 9.93 per cent to N14.06, Learn Africa increased by 9.79 per cent to N12.90, and Red Star Express advanced by 9.56 per cent to N34.95.
On the flip side, Trans-Nationwide Express depreciated by 9.92 per cent to N5.72, Livestock Feeds dipped by 9.64 per cent to N8.90, The Initiates crashed by 8.65 per cent to N33.80, Ellah Lakes drowned by 8.64 per cent to N10.05, and Neimeth lost 6.36 per cent to trade at N10.30.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira weakened against the United States Dollar by N3.15 or 0.23 per cent to N1,375.46/$1 from N1,372.31/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, May 22.
It was also a similar situation for the domestic currency against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday, as it lost N9.46 to sell for N1,849.72/£1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,840.26/£1, and against the Euro, it depreciated by N6.26 to close at N1,597.04/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s exchange rate of N1,590.78/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the Dollar during the session by N2 to trade at N1,381/$1 versus the previous day’s N1,379/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,390/$1.
Analysts at Cowry Asset Management Limited, in their weekly financial outlook, have projected the Naira will remain under soft pressure in near term due to continuous FX demand.
“Looking ahead, the Naira may remain under mild pressure in the near term due to persistent FX demand, though rising external reserves could help cushion volatility,” they noted.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this week reiterated that it would continue with its current policy direction to sustain the fight against inflation and stabilise the exchange rate.
This comes as the FX market has changed significantly under the ongoing reforms introduced by the apex bank, with increased market liquidity reducing the need for heavy intervention by the CBN. Its intervention currently accounts for only about 1.2 to 1.3 per cent of total market turnover in 2025, a development he said reflects the growing strength of the market.
Turnover has risen sharply from about $100 million in 2023 to roughly $550 million presently, with transactions occasionally climbing to as high as $1 billion in a single day.
A look at the cryptocurrency market showed that it was down on Friday as Mr Kevin Warsh was sworn in by President Donald Trump as the chairman of the US Federal Reserve, replacing Mr Jerome Powell, who will continue as a governor in the US central bank.
The appointment was made in the hope that he would lead the central bank to cut interest rates, but the Iran war has sent oil prices soaring and re-ignited what had been cooling inflation.
Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 5.5 per cent to $2,010.90, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 5.2 per cent to trade at $0.1001, Cardano (ADA) fell by 5.0 per cent to $0.2389, Solana (SOL) slipped by 4.9 per cent to $82.69, and Bitcoin (BTC) slid by 3.3 per cent to $74,950.02.
Further, Ripple (XRP) went down by 2.9 per cent to $1.32, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 2.6 per cent to $641.61, and TRON (TRX) shrank by 1.2 per cent to $0.3606, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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