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Economic Momentum in Nigeria, Others to Remains Weak—World Bank

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By Dipo Olowookere

The World Bank Group on Tuesday said it expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 2.2 percent in the year 2020.

In a statement yesterday, the global lender said in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, growth is expected to accelerate to 3.3 percent in 2020, with South Africa anticipated to rise to 1.5 percent and Angola to pick up to 2.9 percent next year.

However, the World Bank said these projections would remain “assuming that investor sentiment toward some of the large economies of the region improves, that oil production will recover in large exporters, and that robust growth in non-resource-intensive economies will be underpinned by continued strong agricultural production and sustained public investment.”

It added that, “While per capita GDP is expected to rise in the region, it will nevertheless be insufficient to significantly reduce poverty.”

Business Post reports that the World Bank has observed that in 2019, activities, especially trade, in the emerging market and developing economies, which Nigeria belongs to, has been markedly weaker than expected, with a substantial softening in external demand, heightened global policy uncertainty, and subdued investment only partially offset by recent improvements in external financing conditions.

“As demand from major economies continues to moderate, export growth is expected to decelerate across EMDE regions in 2019.

“Overall, export growth in 2019 is expected to be below historical averages in more than 80 percent of EMDEs. Trade in Asia—which contains major, tightly interconnected, global manufacturing hubs—has been particularly affected,” the World Bank said yesterday.

It noted that growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to stabilize next year as some countries move past periods of financial strain, but economic momentum remains weak.

“Emerging and developing economy growth is constrained by sluggish investment, and risks are tilted to the downside.

“These risks include rising trade barriers, renewed financial stress, and sharper-than-expected slowdowns in several major economies, the World Bank says in its June 2019 Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment. Structural problems that misallocate or discourage investment also weigh on the outlook,” the statement said.

On the global scene, the World Bank said economic growth is forecast to ease to a weaker-than-expected 2.6 percent in 2019 before inching up to 2.7 percent in 2020.

“Stronger economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and improving living standards,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. “Current economic momentum remains weak, while heightened debt levels and subdued investment growth in developing economies are holding countries back from achieving their potential. It’s urgent that countries make significant structural reforms that improve the business climate and attract investment. They also need to make debt management and transparency a high priority so that new debt adds to growth and investment.”

Growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slow in 2019, especially in the Euro Area, due to weaker exports and investment. U.S. growth is forecast to ease to 2.5 percent this year and decelerate to 1.7 percent in 2020. Euro Area growth is projected to hover around 1.4 percent in 2020-21, with softness in trade and domestic demand weighing on activity despite continued support from monetary policy.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Naira Loses Against Dollar Official, Black Markets

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira opened the new trading week on a negative note on Monday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) and the black market.

At the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar by N5 to sell for N1,380/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,375/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N1 to trade at N1,373/$1 versus N1,372/$1.

At the official market, it lost 63 Kobo or 0.05 per cent against the Dollar during the session to close at N1,362.84/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s value of N1,362.21/$1.

However, the Nigerian Naira gained N2.30 against the Pound Sterling at the spot market yesterday, quoting at N1,821.29/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,823.59/£1, and improved against the Euro by 23 Kobo to settle at N1,574.35/€1 versus N1,574.58/€1.

Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that interbank forex turnover increased to $92.248 million across 90 deals, from $73.565 million last Friday.

On the policy front, participants believed that the application of the fourth edition of the Foreign Exchange Manual of the central bank, which introduces updated guidelines for foreign exchange transactions and tightening compliance requirements for authorised dealers and market participants, will enhance market flexibility and ease previous restrictions.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market snapped from recent declines, jolted by Strategy’s purchase of 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company raised $181 million through common stock sales, using the proceeds to fund the bitcoin purchase and increase its cash reserves to $1 billion, pushing the price of the coin higher by 3.2 per cent to $63,731.69.

Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 8.4 per cent to $0.1738, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 5.2 per cent to $1,711.54, Solana (SOL) expanded by 5.1 per cent to $67.82, and Ripple (XRP) improved by 4.9 per cent to $1.18.

Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 4.3 per cent to $0.0873, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.7 per cent to $609.50, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.3274, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $0.9997 and $0.9998, respectively.

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Economy

Economist Tasks FG to Explore Alternative Funding Sources

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Aliyu Ilias

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The federal government has been advised to consider exploring other funding sources to finance its budget deficits.

Speaking with Punch recently, the chief executive of CSA Advisory, Mr Aliyu Ilias, said the current appetite for borrowing by the government cannot be sustained because it elevates debt-servicing costs.

The economist suggested the sale of some public assets and the involvement of the private sector in infrastructure financing for economic growth.

According to him, running to the debt markets to raise funds for the government is not the best route to take, as the reliance on borrowing always leads to higher debt-servicing obligations.

“The more you borrow, the more you are also incurring more debt services,” he said, tasking the government to also capitalise on increased oil revenues stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

“The government can actually sell off some of their assets to raise more money. The government can also, if you look at the revenue we are getting from oil, it’s getting more, especially with this war. It’s another opportunity for us to actually not borrow again,” Mr Ilias submitted.

He also pointed to ongoing tax reforms as another avenue to improve government finances and narrow the fiscal gap.

“The government can also look at tax reform. The fact is that the government does not have money. The only chance for getting more money is to address the financial deficit,” he added.

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Crude Oil Gains Over $1 Despite Easing Iran-Israel Tensions

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil was up by $1 on Monday as Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an ‌appeal from US President Donald Trump.

Brent crude futures gained $1.16 or 1.3 per cent to trade at $94.25 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 76 cents or 0.8 per cent to $91.30 per barrel.

Iran’s military said Monday it halted attacks on Israel after the two countries exchanged their most intense strikes in months, further straining an already shaky ceasefire as well as the US-Israeli relationship. Iran, however, said it would resume strikes if Israel continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel also halted attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, stopping short of acknowledging a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump said the countries were aiming for.

President Trump said earlier that the US blockade, which was introduced in April, would remain in place “in full force” until a final peace agreement between the two warring nations is reached.

Prices gained more than 5 per cent earlier on Monday after renewed Israeli strikes ​on Iran and attacks on Lebanon had reduced hopes of an imminent end to the wider war.

Market analysts noted that because of the strikes, investors were concerned that flows through the Strait of Hormuz might remain restricted for longer. Roughly ​a fifth of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway before US-Israeli airstrikes at the end of February ‌unleashed the ⁠latest escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.

Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed its military ​attacks on Iran, adding to concerns about global shipping and energy flows.

In the face of ​the supply crisis, a sub-group under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on ⁠Sunday agreed on its fourth oil output target increase in four months. The seven members decided to increase ​targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 barrels per day in May and April to take into account the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

On paper, the sub-group has increased its output quotas from April ⁠to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day, but in reality, the group’s production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million ​barrels per day in April compared with 42.77 million barrels per day in February.

Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for crude oil to Asia ​in July for a second month.

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