Economy
Is Equity Market Rally Sustainable?
The performance of the Nigerian equity market as measured by The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSE ASI) has been impressive since the beginning of the year 2017.
As at the close of trading on July 27, 2017, the NSE ASI had appreciated by 38.59 percent Year-to-Date (YTD).
A review of the performance of 15 major equity market indices in other countries shows that the NSE ASI recorded the best performance of 37 percent as at July 26, 2017, closely followed by GSE All Share Index (Ghana) at 34 percent.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update July 2017 edition, states that equity prices in advanced economies remain strong, and are showing continued market confidence about company earnings.
It notes that markets are also optimistic about emerging market prospects as reflected in strengthening equity markets and some further compression of interest rate spreads.
It however cautions that oil exporters provide an exception to this pattern, because of the dwindling oil prices since March 2017.
The big question in the minds of investors and equity market analysts is if the strong growth in the equity market since April 2017 is sustainable or if there is a bubble waiting to burst.
Our review of the Price to Earnings (P/E) multiples of the top 10 most capitalised stocks on The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) as at July 27, 2017 shows that the companies traded at higher P/E multiples in July 2017 than in July 2016 and in July 2015.
The average P/E multiple for the companies increased from 11.46x in July 2015 to 12.25x in July 2016 and to 27.06x July 27, 2017.
Nestle recorded the highest P/E multiple of 78.87x in July 2017 and 34.91x in July 2015 while Nigerian Breweries recorded the highest P/E multiple in 2016 at 30.7x.
Although a high P/E multiple may indicate that investors believe in the future earnings growth of the company, the current trend in the market shows that stocks are trading far higher than the historical level and a possible correction may be imminent.
The monthly analysis of the NSE ASI shows that the equity market rally started in April 2017. The equity market appreciated between April and July 27, 2017 by 45 percent while it depreciated by 4.15 percent between December 2016 and April 2017.
The equity market followed similar trend between April and June in 2016 and 2017. The equity market recorded negative performance both in January and February 2017 at 3.12 percent and 2.72 percent respectively, with investors’ outlook that 2017 might be another bad year for equity market investment.
However, the fortune of the market changed in March 2017 with a month on month appreciation of 0.74 percent, April 0.95 percent, May 15 percent, June 12 percent, and 12 percent as at July 27, 2017.
YTD, the top gainers in the equity market as at July 27, 2017 are: May & Baker 245.74 percent; Fidson Healthcare 172.66 percent; Stanbic IBTC Holdings 150.00 percent; UBA 124.44 percent; Beta Glass 99.01 percent; Cement Company of Northern Nigeria 94 percent; Airline Services 91.20 percent; Okomu Oil 85.24 percent; FBN Holdings 78.21 percent; and Presco 77.06 percent.
Some notable factors that are responsible for the market rally are: improved business and consumers’ confidence in the economy, consistent improvement in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), stability in the foreign exchange market leading to the inflow of foreign investors, particularly with the establishment of the Investors and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window and the prospect of improvement in corporate earnings.
While we note that the improvement in the macroeconomic environment in the last few months has sustained the rally in the equity market, we think profit taking is imminent on a few stocks that have recorded strong appreciation in their share prices.
Economy
SEC Advances Fintech Innovation With Seven New ARIP Approvals
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has cleared seven new fintech and digital asset firms for admission into its Accelerated Regulatory Incubation Programme (ARIP), granting them Approval-in-Principle (AIP) to operate within the programme’s regulatory sandbox as part of efforts to promote innovation while protecting investors.
The commission said the move reinforces its commitment to fostering responsible innovation that deepens Nigeria’s capital market without compromising market integrity.
The seven firms set for admission into the programme are Bitbarter Technologies Limited, Luno Fintech Nigeria Limited, GetEquity Limited, Koinkoin Global Network Limited, Wrapped CBDC Ltd, Trovotech Ltd and Blockvault Custodian Ltd.
According to the SEC, the Approval-in-Principle permits the firms to operate within the defined scope of the programme, subject to conditions stipulated by the Commission.
It clarified that the approval is not a final operating licence but confirms that each entity has satisfied the admission requirements for ARIP.
“An Approval-in-Principle confirms that an entity has satisfied the Commission’s admission requirements for the Programme. It is not a final licence and remains conditional on the entity’s continued compliance with all applicable regulatory, operational, and supervisory obligations,” the Commission stated.
The ARIP is a controlled regulatory environment established by the SEC to accelerate the onboarding of digital asset and other investment service providers, including Virtual Asset Service Providers (VASPs) and tokenised product platforms.
The programme enables the Commission to evaluate emerging business models and financial technologies under regulatory supervision before they are offered to the investing public.
According to the commission, the initiative is designed to ensure that adequate safeguards are in place to protect investors while preserving the integrity of Nigeria’s capital market.
The SEC reiterated its commitment to supporting innovation that enhances efficiency, transparency, financial inclusion and sustainable growth in the capital market through initiatives such as ARIP.
It also urged members of the public to verify the regulatory status of individuals or organisations promoting investment products or services through its official channels before committing funds.
Economy
FG Denies IMF Allegation of 2% GDP Off-Budget Expenditure
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian government has dismissed claims by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it spent about two per cent of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outside the approved budget.
The widely reported claim was made by the IMF’s Resident Representative in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke, last week. He alleged that the country failed to record public spending equivalent to about two per cent of its GDP in recent official budgets, amounting to about N8 trillion.
But in a statement issued on Sunday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, said the federal government does not operate a “shadow budget” or spend public funds outside the constitutional and statutory framework governing public finance, and described the reports as a misrepresentation of Mr Ebeke’s comments.
He explained that sections 80–83 and 162 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) provide that public funds can only be withdrawn and spent in accordance with the Constitution and laws enacted by the National Assembly.
According to him, all FG spending is backed by duly enacted Appropriation Acts, Supplementary Appropriation Acts or other statutory authorisations approved by the National Assembly.
Mr Oyedele added that multi-year capital projects, which span several budget cycles, are implemented in line with existing laws and approved capital rollover provisions where applicable.
“These are recognised features of public financial management and should not be misconstrued as expenditures outside the budget,” he said.
He described as inaccurate suggestions that trillions of naira were secretly spent without legislative approval, arguing that such allegations should identify the specific projects allegedly executed without appropriation or legal authority and provide credible evidence to support the claims.
“To be meaningful, assertions of this magnitude must be supported by verifiable facts rather than conjecture.
“For the purpose of public education, it is important to distinguish between appropriation, expenditure authorisation, financing and fiscal reporting,” he added.
Mr Oyedele said Nigeria’s public finance framework includes several statutory transfers, first-line charges and intervention mechanisms established by Acts of the National Assembly.
These, he said, include statutory allocations to development commissions and other agencies created by law, cost of collection and administration retained by designated revenue-collecting agencies, capital expenditure approved under separate budgets for some agencies and the Federal Capital Territory, special interventions for national priorities such as security, infrastructure and disaster response, as well as debt service obligations and other statutory transfers.
The minister maintained that the expenditures are neither secret nor illegal, stressing that they are established by law, disclosed in official fiscal reports and subject to oversight, audit and accountability mechanisms.
“Their treatment for reporting purposes may differ from their presentation in the annual Appropriation Act, particularly under international statistical and reporting standards adopted by the Federal Government. Such classification differences should not be misrepresented as evidence of unlawful expenditure,” he said.
Mr Oyedele also rejected claims that the reported amount represented an increase in Nigeria’s budget deficit.
“A fiscal deficit is determined by the relationship between total government revenues and total government expenditures. Whether a capital project is financed through annual appropriations, supplementary appropriations, statutory transfers, approved intervention mechanisms, or other lawful financing arrangements does not, by itself, increase the fiscal deficit,” he said.
He further explained that the IMF’s observation related primarily to the comprehensiveness, timing and presentation of Nigeria’s fiscal reporting rather than the legality of government expenditure.
According to him, Nigeria, like many other countries, is working to improve the alignment between its budget presentation and international fiscal reporting standards as part of ongoing public financial management reforms.
Mr Oyedele recalled that President Bola Tinubu had, during the presentation of the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly on December 19, 2025, urged lawmakers to end the practice of operating multiple and overlapping budgets and instead adopt a single, harmonised budget framework.
He said the federal government remains committed to prudent fiscal management, transparency and accountability, adding that recent reforms have strengthened budget credibility, revenue administration, treasury management and the digitalisation of government financial processes.
According to him, these reforms have been acknowledged by the IMF, other multilateral institutions, international credit rating agencies, investors and major global media organisations.
While describing public debate as essential in a democracy, Mr Oyedele urged commentators to base their arguments on facts and a proper understanding of Nigeria’s constitutional and fiscal framework.
“Mischaracterising technical observations as evidence of unlawful expenditure neither advances informed public discourse nor strengthens democratic accountability,” he said.
He added that the federal government would continue to uphold the rule of law, ensure transparency in the management of public resources and work with the National Assembly, oversight institutions, development partners and Nigerians to further strengthen fiscal governance in line with international best practices
Economy
Ahimie to Position CIS as Key Contributor to Capital Market, National Economy
By Dipo Olowookere
The 14th president and chairman of the council of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers (CIS), Ms Fiona Ahimie, has promised to position the organisation as a leading professional body contributing meaningfully to the growth and development of the Nigerian capital market and the national economy.
She made this commitment during her swearing-in ceremony on Thursday, June 25, 2026, as the first female leader of the 34-year-old institute.
Ms Ahimie also pledged to strengthen professional excellence, deepen stakeholder engagement, expand financial literacy, promote youth and women’s development, and drive innovation and digital transformation.
The event, which was attended by several capital market stakeholders, was also used as a send-off ceremony for Ms Ahimie’s predecessor, Mr Oluropo Samuel Dada, in recognition of his exemplary leadership and dedicated service to the organisation over the past two years.
Present were Nigeria’s Vice President, Mr Kashim Shettima, represented by the Special Adviser to the President on Economic Affairs, Mr Tope Fasua; the Minister of Women Affairs & Social Development, Ms Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim; the Governor of Ekiti State, Mr Biodun Abayomi Oyebanji; the Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, represented by the Commissioner for Finance, Mr Abayomi Oluyomi; the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, represented by the Director of Financial Policy & Regulations at the CBN, Ms Rita Ijeoma Sike; the Director-General of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Mr Emomotimi Agama; the Chairman of First Holdco, Mr Femi Otedola, represented by the chief executive First Holdco, Mr Adebowale Oyedeji; the former DG of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), formerly known as the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Ms Ndi Okereke-Onyiuke; and the chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, amongst others.
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