Connect with us

Economy

Equity Market Ready for Recovery

Published

on

By FSDH Research

There are indications that the Nigerian equity market is ready for a recovery in the year 2017 after three consecutive years of decline. The equity market, as measured by The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSEASI), depreciated by 16.14%, 17.36% and 6.17% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

As at April 28, 2017 the NSEASI had lost 4.15% of its value. The major factors responsible for the poor performance of the equity market in the last three years are: weak macroeconomic performance, inconsistent policies, weak corporate earnings and portfolio realignment from equities to fixed income securities.

However, looking at the strong growth in the unaudited results that quoted companies released for the period January – March 2017 and the improvement in the macroeconomic environment, we believe the equity market is ready for a recovery in 2017.

As at April 27, 2017, 62 quoted companies had released their unaudited quarterly results for the period January – March 2017.

The total turnover of these companies increased by 41% from N1,450billion in 2016 to N2,042bilion in 2017.

The Profit Before Tax (PBT) increased by 45% from N257billion in 2016 to N373billion in 2017 while the Profit After Tax increased by 29% from N240billion in 2016 to N310billion in2017.

The recent increase in the crude oil price and production and subsequent increase in the external reserves have helped to stabilise the foreign exchange market – a major concern of the foreign investors. The increase in the supply of foreign exchange to meet the input requirements of manufacturing companies should increase their production activities and revenue in the current financial year.

The fiscal and the monetary authorities are implementing policies that should inspire investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy and market.

Our survey shows that most investors did a lot of portfolio realignment -moving from equities to fixed income securities. The main reason for this was the lacklustre performance of equities in the face of attractive yields on fixed income securities.

The data from the National Pension Commission (PenCom) on the allocation of the Pension Fund Assets as at February 2017 shows that the weight of the pension fund assets on domestic equity dropped consistently from 2014 to 2017.

The weight stood at 13.7%, 10.4%, 8.6% and 7.5% in February 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. These figures are lower than PenCom’s approved pension fund assets allocation weight to equities, an indication that there is room for pension fund assets to allocate more funds to equities.

PenCom stipulates the maximum weights of equities in the investment portfolio of pension assets as follows: Fund I: 30%; Fund II: 25%, Fund III: 10% and Fund IV: 5%. Any pension contributor can make a formal request to join Fund I. Fund II is for active contributors who are below the age of 49 years. Fund III is for active contributors who are 50 years and above while Fund IV is strictly for retirees.

The analysis of the equity transactions on the NSE in the last three years shows investors’ apathy for equity investment.

According to the NSE, the value of equity transactions from foreign and domestic investors declined between 2014 and 2016.

Foreign transactions were N1.54trillion, N1.03trillion and N0.52trillion in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively while Domestic transactions were N1.14trillion, N0.88trillion and N0.63trillion in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.

Although the relative size of foreign investors’ participation in the equity market declined between 2014 and 2016 (58%, 54% and 45% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively), the share of foreign investors’ participation was higher than domestic investors’ participation between 2014 (Foreign: 58% and Domestic: 42%) and 2015 (Foreign: 54% and Domestic: 46%).

The foreign investors’ participation in 2016 at 46% was lower than domestic investors’ participation at 54%.

The uncertainties surrounding the foreign exchange policies and the difficulties to access foreign exchange to repatriate capital and profit led to the withdrawal of foreign investors from the market. The stability in the macroeconomic environment and the strong earnings of quoted companies should attract the needed liquidity into the market. Consequently, the equity market should record a strong recovery in the year 2017.

Source: FSDH Research

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Sanwo-Olu Signs 2026 Lagos Budget of N4.45trn into Law

Published

on

Budget of N4.45trn

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Monday signed the 2026 appropriation bill of N4.45 trillion into law.

At the signing ceremony in Alausa, Ikeja in the presence of his deputy, Mr Femi Hamzat, the Governor thanked the Lagos State House of Assembly, led by the Speaker, Mr Mudashiru Obasa, for passing the 2026 budget christened Budget of Shared Prosperity.

He said though the appropriation bill was increased from N4.2 trillion to N4.45 trillion, this only showed the independence of the parliament, promising that the executive arm of government will accountably implement the bill.

“On behalf of the people and the government of Lagos State, let me thank the House of Assembly. This is a budget that you have had your full input into, you have scrutinized, you have dissected, and you have taken your time to do the very constitutional provision, which is enshrined in our constitution. I want to thank you for the work you have done.

“You will notice that there is a slight increase from what we put forward, but that goes to show that the independence that you have, and the fact that you believe that Lagosians actually also deserve more, and the fact that you believe that we also can do more. So we’re excited and we’re happy with the way that you have brought it forward here to us.

“For us in the executive, it is another opportunity for us to be able to work together. It is a budget of shared prosperity that has been properly christened, and sharing prosperity means that it’s an inclusive government, it’s a budget that must carry everybody along irrespective of what part of the state, what division in the state, what sector you are from you must feel governance, you must feel the essence of why we’re in government in one form or the other,” Mr Sanwo-Olu said.

The Speaker, represented by the Majority leader of the Lagos Assembly, Mr Noheem Adams, praised the Governor for his people-oriented policies.

Business Post recalls that on November 25, 2025, Mr Sanwo-Olu presented a proposed to spend N4.237 trillion this year, higher than the N3.366 trillion approved for 2025.

But the lawmakers increased the budget to N4.445 trillion and passed it on January 8, 2026, and transmitted to the Governor for assent.

Continue Reading

Economy

Nigeria’s Non-Oil Exports Rise 11.5% to $6.1bn in 2025—NEPC

Published

on

non-oil exports

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigeria Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has disclosed that Nigeria’s non-oil exports for the year 2025 stood at $6.1 billion.

According to the NEPC Executive Director, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, on Monday, the figure showed a growth of 11.5 per cent compared to the $5.4 billion recorded in December 2024.

Mrs Ayeni noted that while the top three export destinations for the year were the Netherlands, Brazil, and India, a total of 1.23 million metric tonnes of goods were exported to 11 Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries, with Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, Togo, and Benin topping the list.

However, she explained that the exit of Burkina Faso, Mail and Niger led to a decline of trade within the ECOWAS sub-region, as well as Africa.

The three countries under military juntas have moved to restrict trade with their fellow West Africans.

A further breakdown of the 2025 report of the non-oil sector showed that 281 products, which include agricultural commodities, processed and semi-processed goods, were exported.

Top products on the list of non-oil export include cocoa, sesame seeds, urea, soya beans, and rubber, amongst others.

Nigeria has moved in recent times to boost its non-oil exports to reduce vulnerability to external shocks and price volatility associated with commodities like oil.

Despite Nigeria’s heavy dependence on oil revenues, it continues to expose the country to sudden fiscal pressures whenever global prices fall, often constraining public spending and slowing growth.

The latest NEPC data shows that by expanding exports in agriculture, manufacturing, services, and creative industries, Nigeria can build a more balanced economic structure that is better able to absorb global disruptions while sustaining steady income flows.

Market analysts have noted that strengthening non-oil exports can help Nigeria’s long-term competitiveness and foreign exchange (FX) earnings. It could also further improve the country’s trade balance, support currency stability, and attract investment by signalling economic resilience and policy credibility.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Raises Nigeria’s 2026 Growth to 4.4% on Improved Macroeconomic Conditions

Published

on

Tinubu IMF president Kristalina Georgieva

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The economic growth outlook of Nigeria for 2026 has been upgraded by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to 4.4 per cent from the 4.2 per cent earlier projected in October 2025.

This comes a few days after the World Bank Group raised the country’s growth forecast to 4.4 per cent this year from the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.

In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update titled Global Economy: Steady amid Divergent Forces, the IMF explained that it was lifting the growth projection for Nigeria due to improved macroeconomic conditions and reform momentum.

However, it cautioned that “escalating geopolitical tensions” in the Middle East and Ukraine could negatively impact “the [positive] outlook.”

The organisation stressed that renewed trade tensions and protectionist measures, which could heighten global uncertainty and high public debt and fiscal deficits could exert upward pressure on long-term interest rates.

The IMF also identified energy prices as a critical factor shaping the 2026 outlook, projecting that energy commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 per cent in 2026 largely due to weak global demand.

It charged the Nigerian government to focus on rebuilding fiscal buffers, and structural reforms without delay to maintain economic stability.

The Fund also stressed that central bank independence remains critical for macroeconomic stability, especially amid heightened global volatility.

It said the ability of the country to meet its 2026 growth target would depend on the consistent implementation of reforms and its capacity to withstand domestic and external shocks as the global economy continues to adjust.

As for the global economy, the IMF noted that it anticipates a 3.3 per cent growth in 2026, reflecting a balancing of divergent forces.

Continue Reading

Trending