Economy
Equity Market Ready for Recovery
By FSDH Research
There are indications that the Nigerian equity market is ready for a recovery in the year 2017 after three consecutive years of decline. The equity market, as measured by The Nigerian Stock Exchange All Share Index (NSEASI), depreciated by 16.14%, 17.36% and 6.17% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.
As at April 28, 2017 the NSEASI had lost 4.15% of its value. The major factors responsible for the poor performance of the equity market in the last three years are: weak macroeconomic performance, inconsistent policies, weak corporate earnings and portfolio realignment from equities to fixed income securities.
However, looking at the strong growth in the unaudited results that quoted companies released for the period January – March 2017 and the improvement in the macroeconomic environment, we believe the equity market is ready for a recovery in 2017.
As at April 27, 2017, 62 quoted companies had released their unaudited quarterly results for the period January – March 2017.
The total turnover of these companies increased by 41% from N1,450billion in 2016 to N2,042bilion in 2017.
The Profit Before Tax (PBT) increased by 45% from N257billion in 2016 to N373billion in 2017 while the Profit After Tax increased by 29% from N240billion in 2016 to N310billion in2017.
The recent increase in the crude oil price and production and subsequent increase in the external reserves have helped to stabilise the foreign exchange market – a major concern of the foreign investors. The increase in the supply of foreign exchange to meet the input requirements of manufacturing companies should increase their production activities and revenue in the current financial year.
The fiscal and the monetary authorities are implementing policies that should inspire investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy and market.
Our survey shows that most investors did a lot of portfolio realignment -moving from equities to fixed income securities. The main reason for this was the lacklustre performance of equities in the face of attractive yields on fixed income securities.
The data from the National Pension Commission (PenCom) on the allocation of the Pension Fund Assets as at February 2017 shows that the weight of the pension fund assets on domestic equity dropped consistently from 2014 to 2017.
The weight stood at 13.7%, 10.4%, 8.6% and 7.5% in February 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 respectively. These figures are lower than PenCom’s approved pension fund assets allocation weight to equities, an indication that there is room for pension fund assets to allocate more funds to equities.
PenCom stipulates the maximum weights of equities in the investment portfolio of pension assets as follows: Fund I: 30%; Fund II: 25%, Fund III: 10% and Fund IV: 5%. Any pension contributor can make a formal request to join Fund I. Fund II is for active contributors who are below the age of 49 years. Fund III is for active contributors who are 50 years and above while Fund IV is strictly for retirees.
The analysis of the equity transactions on the NSE in the last three years shows investors’ apathy for equity investment.
According to the NSE, the value of equity transactions from foreign and domestic investors declined between 2014 and 2016.
Foreign transactions were N1.54trillion, N1.03trillion and N0.52trillion in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively while Domestic transactions were N1.14trillion, N0.88trillion and N0.63trillion in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively.
Although the relative size of foreign investors’ participation in the equity market declined between 2014 and 2016 (58%, 54% and 45% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively), the share of foreign investors’ participation was higher than domestic investors’ participation between 2014 (Foreign: 58% and Domestic: 42%) and 2015 (Foreign: 54% and Domestic: 46%).
The foreign investors’ participation in 2016 at 46% was lower than domestic investors’ participation at 54%.
The uncertainties surrounding the foreign exchange policies and the difficulties to access foreign exchange to repatriate capital and profit led to the withdrawal of foreign investors from the market. The stability in the macroeconomic environment and the strong earnings of quoted companies should attract the needed liquidity into the market. Consequently, the equity market should record a strong recovery in the year 2017.
Source: FSDH Research
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.
On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.
According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.
He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.
He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.
Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.
He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.
He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.
He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.
The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.
Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.
The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.
The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.
Dangote ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.
Nigeria has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.
Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.
The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in April 2026 rose to 15.69 per cent, beating analysts’ expectations of 15.95 per cent, as the fallout from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.
The statistical office on Friday showed the headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
The rise in prices comes as an energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, which stoked food prices and affected relative exchange rate stability.
According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”
“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 17.55%, which was 17.05% points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2025 (34.60%),” the NBS said.
Analysts at Coronation Research had earlier projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026. It added that the expected inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.
It also expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
The MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will meet this month, the first since the Iran War started in late February, to review core monetary policies and possibly make adjustments.
The committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February.
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