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Explainer: NNPC, Afreximbank $3bn Crude Repayment Loan

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NNPC guarantee energy security

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s state-owned oil company, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited yesterday announced a $3billion loan from Africa Import and Export Bank (Afreximbank) against royalties from future oil production, as a temporary measure to improve dollar supply to the uniform foreign exchange window.

In a statement late Wednesday, the NNPC limited said the “NNPC and Afreximbank have jointly signed a commitment letter and term sheet for an emergency $3bn crude oil repayment loan.”

According to the statement, the “signing which took place today at the bank’s headquarters in Cairo will provide some immediate disbursement that will enable the NNPC limited to support the Federal government in its ongoing fiscal and monetary policy reforms aimed at stabilizing the exchange rate market.”

While this has helped propped up the local currency with the Naira gaining on the Dollar and other currencies, many gray areas remain about the deal. This explainer provided by the presidency and the NNPC will help make sense of pertinent questions:

  1. What is the $3 billion loan about?

The NNPC Limited secured an emergency $3 billion crude oil repayment loan from AFREXIM Bank. This is not a crude-for-refined products swap but an upfront cash loan against proceeds from a limited amount of future crude oil production.

  1. Is this loan risky for NNPC Ltd or the Nigerian Treasury?

No. The exposure for NNPC Ltd. is very limited, covering just a fraction of their entitlements. Additionally, there are no sovereign guarantees tied to this loan.

  1. What’s the benefit of this loan to Nigeria?

The loan will assist NNPC Ltd. in settling taxes and royalties in advance. It will also equip the Federal Government with the necessary dollar liquidity to stabilize the Naira, with limited risk.

  1. How will the loan be disbursed?

The funds will be released in stages or tranches based on the specific needs and requirements of the Federal Government.

  1. Will this affect fuel prices?

A strengthened Naira as a result of this initiative will lead to a reduction in fuel costs. This means that if the Naira appreciates in value, the cost of fuel will drop and further increases will be halted.

  1. What about subsidies? Are they coming back?

No. A stronger Naira will result in lower prices from the current level, making subsidies unnecessary. The deregulation policy remains unchanged.

  1. How will the loan be repaid?

The loan will be repaid against a fraction of proceeds from future crude oil production. It’s a strategic move that ensures a balance between our current economic needs and future production capabilities.

  1. What is the difference between this and previous swap deals?

This is not a crude for refined products agreement where the government does not earn any proceeds from the swap.

Meanwhile, market analysts and fiscal experts worry that this measure won’t help clear the large backlog that the country is faced with in the long term as this will only provide succour in the short term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Crude Oil Down on Steady US Energy Demand Forecast

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Crude Oil Loan Facility

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil went down on Tuesday after a projection showed steady demand in the world’s largest oil producer, the United States, for 2025, Brent futures declining by $1.09 or 1.35 per cent to settle at $79.92 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude losing $1.32 or 1.67 per cent to finish at $77.50 a barrel.

On Tuesday, the US Energy Information Administration said the country’s oil demand would remain steady at 20.5 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026, with domestic oil output rising to 13.55 million barrels per day, an increase from the agency’s previous forecast of 13.52 million barrels per day for this year.

Also, the oil market shrank a few days after prices gained following new US sanctions on Russian oil exports to India and China.

On Monday, prices jumped 2 per cent after the US Treasury Department on Friday imposed sanctions on Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas as well as 183 vessels that transport oil as part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet of tankers.

Analysts say this move could have a significant price impact on Russian oil supplies from the fresh sanctions, however, their effect on the physical market could be less pronounced than what the affected volumes might suggest.

ING analysts estimated the new sanctions had the potential to erase the entire 700,000 barrels per day surplus they had forecast for this year, but said the real impact could be lower.

Uncertainty about demand from China, the world’s largest oil importer, could impact tighter supply this year.

China’s crude oil imports fell in 2024 for the first time in two decades outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, official data showed on Monday.

Meanwhile, the American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending January 10.

For the week prior, the API reported a draw of 4.022 million barrels in US crude oil inventories amid build season, while product inventories saw a hefty build.

In 2024, crude oil inventories dropped by more than 12 million barrels, according to the API’s inventory data. In the first few weeks of 2025, crude inventories have shed more than 6.6 million barrels.

Official data from the US EIA will be due later on Wednesday, confirming the actual level of stockpiles.

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Economy

Stock Exchange Suffers Heavy Loss as Investors Pull Out N1.1trn

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Local Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, going down by 1.66 per cent as investors embarked on profit-taking after most stocks on the trading platform gained in the past few trading sessions.

It was observed that the industrial goods sector was the most affected yesterday as it went down by 4.99 per cent due to the decline suffered by Dangote Cement and others.

The insurance continued its downward trend during the day as it lost 2.80 per cent, the consumer goods counter fell by 0.27 per cent, and the banking index shed 0.10 per cent, while the energy sector appreciated by 0.29 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) deflated by 1,745.16 points to settle at 103,622.09 points compared with the previous trading day’s 105,367.25 points and the market capitalisation moderated by N1.1 trillion to finish at N63.188 trillion versus Monday’s N64.252 trillion.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak on Tuesday after the bourse ended with 41 depreciating equities and 23 appreciating equities, representing a negative market breadth index.

Honeywell Flour lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.54, Dangote Cement declined by 9.98 per cent to N431.00, Julius Berger crashed by 9.98 per cent to N139.80, Sovereign Trust Insurance decreased by 9.68 per cent to N1.12, and Prestige Assurance tumbled by 9.30 per cent to N1.17.

On the flip side, Northern Nigerian Flour Mills appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N45.10, Livestock Feeds grew by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Academy Press expanded by 9.90 per cent to N3.22, University Press increased by 9.82 per cent to N4.81, and Neimeth gained 9.76 per cent to quote at N3.15.

During the session, market participants bought and sold 503.3 million shares valued at N12.6 billion in 12,900 deals compared with the 505.8 million shares worth N8.1 billion traded in 14,259 deals a day earlier, indicating a rise in the trading value by 55.56 per cent and a drop in the trading volume and number of deals by 0.49 per cent and 9.53 per cent, respectively.

The most active stock for the session was GTCO with 54.4 million units worth N3.2 billion, Nigerian Breweries transacted 32.2 million units for N1.0 billion, Universal Insurance traded 30.8 million units valued at N22.6 million, AIICO Insurance exchanged 26.6 million units worth N47.2 million, and Chams transacted 20.0 million units valued at N40.9 million.

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Economy

FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds

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FGN Savings Bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.

Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.

According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.

These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.

Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.

However, interested investor can only  buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.

This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.

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