Economy
FG Foresees Nigerian Economy Growing by 4.68% in 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government expects the Nigerian economy to grow by 4.68 per cent in 2026, supported by easing inflation, improved foreign exchange stability and continued fiscal reforms, the federal government said on Thursday.
The projection was outlined by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, during the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos.
Mr Edun said Nigeria had moved beyond the crisis-management phase of recent years and was now entering a period of economic consolidation, where stability must translate into growth, jobs and improved living standards.
According to the minister, two years of difficult reforms have helped stabilise key macroeconomic indicators, creating a platform for sustained expansion.
Inflation, which peaked above 33 per cent in 2024, declined to 15.15 per cent by December 2025. Foreign exchange volatility has eased, with the Naira trading below N1,500 to the Dollar, while external reserves rose to $45.5 billion.
GDP growth averaged 3.78 per cent by the third quarter of 2025, with 27 sectors recording expansion, Mr Edun said.
He warned, however, that Nigeria could not afford to reverse course.
Mr Edun said Nigeria cannot afford to pause or retreat from its reform agenda adding that the success of the consolidation phase would determine whether recent gains deliver productive jobs and shared prosperity.
The finance minister also addressed public concerns about Nigeria’s rising debt stock, which stood at about N152 trillion, insisting that the increase was largely the result of transparency and exchange rate adjustments rather than fresh borrowing.
He explained that about N30 trillion of the figure reflected previously unrecognised Ways and Means advances, now formally recorded, while nearly N49 trillion resulted from the revaluation of foreign debt following exchange rate reforms.
Despite the higher nominal figure, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio declined to 36.1 per cent, which the minister said remained among the lowest in Africa and well below the global average.
Reviewing fiscal outcomes in 2025, Mr Edun said the government maintained discipline despite revenue pressures, particularly from the oil and gas sector.
The fiscal deficit was kept at about 3.4 per cent of GDP, while non-oil revenue performance improved and allocations to states increased, strengthening fiscal federalism.
He also said the government achieved 84 per cent capital budget execution for 2024 projects during the transition period.
The minister noted that the 2026 Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity, currently under deliberation by the National Assembly, would prioritise growth-enhancing investments.
The budget proposes N58.18 trillion in total spending, including N26 trillion for capital expenditure, representing about 44 per cent of the total budget, one of the largest capital spending plans in Nigeria’s history.
Inflation is projected to average 16.5 per cent in 2026, while the exchange rate is expected to stabilise around N1,400/$1.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Nigeria Police Force (NPF) has promised to work with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc for the prevention of financial crime, and the reinforcement of trust and confidence in Nigeria’s capital market.
The Inspector General of Police, Mr Kayode Egbetokun, gave this assurance on Wednesday at the closing gong ceremony in his honour at the NGX in Lagos.
The police chief said, “A transparent and well-regulated capital market is vital to Nigeria’s economic growth. The Nigeria Police Force remains committed to working with regulators and market operators to prevent financial crime, protect investors, and uphold the integrity of our financial system.”
Earlier in his welcome address, the chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, commended the leadership of the police in supporting market integrity.
“Market integrity is a shared responsibility. By honouring the Inspector-General of Police, we are reinforcing the importance of institutional alignment in protecting investors and preserving trust in our financial system.
“Strong collaboration between regulators, enforcement agencies, and market infrastructure institutions is essential to building a resilient and credible market that supports economic growth,” he stated.
The Director-General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, while speaking, emphasized the importance of coordinated enforcement, noting: “Investor protection is at the core of market regulation, and today’s engagement highlights how critical collaboration with law enforcement is to achieving that mandate. This partnership strengthens our enforcement capacity, enhances deterrence against illegal investment activities, and reinforces confidence in the Nigerian capital market.”
As for the chairman of NGX Limited, Mr Ahonsi Unuigbe, “A transparent and orderly market can only thrive where rules are respected and misconduct is addressed decisively. The presence of the Nigeria Police Force in this collective effort sends a strong signal that safeguarding the market is a national priority.”
Similarly, the chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, stressed the importance of aligning innovation with oversight, pointing out that, “Technology and market growth must be supported by strong enforcement and investor protection frameworks. Our collaboration with the SEC and the Nigeria Police Force reflects a unified approach to preserving the credibility of Nigeria’s capital market.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 0.09 per cent on Wednesday, February 4, amid renewed appetite for unlisted stocks.
This lifted the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 3.18 points to 3,641.30 points from the previous session’s 3,641.30 points and raised the market capitalisation by N1.9 billion to N2.180 trillion from the N2.178 trillion quoted on Tuesday.
The bourse recorded three price gainers and four price losers at the midweek session.
The advancers were led by Air Liquide Plc, which went up by N2.04 rise to end at N22.53 per share versus the previous session’s N20.49 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) added 97 Kobo to sell at N44.97 per unit versus N44.00 per unit, and Acorn Petroleum Plc appreciated by 2 Kobo to N1.37 per share from N1.35 per share.
On the flip side, Geo-Fluids Plc lost 55 Kobo to sell at N6.26 per unit versus N6.81 per unit, Nipco Plc depreciated by 48 Kobo to trade at N259.00 per share versus N259.48 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc declined by 40 Kobo to N63.10 per unit from N63.50 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) depleted by 1 Kobo to 65 Kobo per share from 66 Kobo per share.
Yesterday, the volume of trades slid by 64.5 per cent to 2.5 million units from 7.0 million units, the value of transaction decreased by 53.2 per cent to N17.7 million from N37.9 million, and the number of deals went down by 47.1 per cent to 18 deals from 34 deals.
CSCS Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 16.0 million units valued at N652.6 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.7 million units exchanged for N111.2 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 11.7 million units traded for N76.1 million.
CSCS Plc was also the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 16.0 million units sold for N652.6 million, trailed by Mass Telecom Innovation Plc with 13.3 million units worth N5.3 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 11.7 million units valued at N76.1 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira rallied at the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Wednesday as supply continues to outweigh demand, giving it an edge against the United States Dollar.
In the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira improved its value on the greenback yesterday by N5 to quote at N1,450/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,455/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it gained N3 to trade at N1,383/$1, in contrast to Tuesday’s exchange rate of N1,386/$1.
In the the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), which is also the official market, the Naira firmed up against the Dollar at midweek by N14.63 or 1.1 per cent to settle at N1,358.28/$1 versus the preceding session’s N1,372.91/$1.
Against the Pound Sterling, the domestic currency appreciated on Wednesday by N14.16 to N1,863.43/£1 from the previous day’s N1,877.59/£1, and gained N13.73 on the Euro to end at N1,606.03/€1 versus the N1,619.76/€1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
The strengthening of the Naira value has been driven by the injection of forex into the financial markets by foreign investors seeking attractive investments in the emerging markets, helping to boost Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with the capacity to support the local currency.
As of February 4, 2026, the reserves reached $46.59 billion.
The local currency has been able to find a solid path despite no indications of any intervention from the apex bank in recent week, strengthening the case of price discovery.
Policy moves by the CBN is also offering a backbone for the FX market as it considers some strategic reforms through a policy known as the Single Regulatory Window.
In its 2025 Fintech Report, the central bank said this scheme will significantly reduce time-to-market for new digital financial products by streamlining licensing and supervisory processes across multiple agencies.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was in red amid a broad sell-off in global technology stocks, with reports showing that liquidity was notably thin, amplifying price moves and contributing to forced liquidations. The decline followed a sharp sell-off in global technology stocks overnight, where concerns over the pace of artificial intelligence adoption and rising capital spending by major firms weighed heavily on valuations.
Bitcoin (BTC) lost 7.9 per cent to sell at $70,534.94, Ripple (XRP) declined by 11.2 per cent to $1.42, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 9.4 per cent to $689.70, Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 8.9 per cent to $2,072.46, and Solana (SOL) dipped by 8.7 per cent to $89.86.
In addition, Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 6.9 per cent to $0.1008, Cardano (ADA) slipped by 6.8 per cent to $0.2792, Litecoin (LTC) dropped 5.1 per cent to trade at $57.56, and US Dollar Tether (USDT) went down by 0.1 per cent to $0.9980, while the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00.
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