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FG Must Reduce Debt Burden Ratio Below 20%—FSDH

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Federal Government has been advised to development ways to reduce its debt burden ratio below 20 percent, at least in the main time.

FSDH Research, in its latest report titled ‘Nigerian Public Debt: A Comparative Analysis,’ said the fact that interest payment is such a significant part of government revenue limits the revenue left for the government to undertake other developmental projects in the short-term.

“We expect this position to improve as government revenue increases as a result of the ongoing economic measures in the country to raise the level of revenue.

“We are of the opinion that government should develop strategies to reduce the ratio of interest payment to revenue below 20 percent in the medium-term,” the firm suggested.

It said further that although the debt stock in Nigeria has increased substantially, it believes this is sustainable in the short-to-medium term given the economic growth potential of the country.

In the short-to-medium-term, government will need to borrow both from external and domestic sources in order to augment the low revenue facing the country as a result of the current economic challenges.

The FGN needs to improve critical infrastructure in the country to increase the competitiveness of the economy to attract investments. This requires more money than current government revenue. The FGN is also working to diversify its revenue base through the issuance of the FGN Savings Bond, Diaspora Bond, and Sukuk.

The efforts of the FGN coupled with the improvement in the macroeconomic environment should help to lower interest rate, it noted.

“We will also continue to encourage the government to partner with the private sector in the provision of critical infrastructure. In addition, government should ensure that any debt contracted is judiciously utilised on projects that promote economic growth and development,” FSDH Research said.

The firm said it observed that the public debt (total of both external and domestic debt) in Nigeria has been increasing over the last five years and the issue of the sustainability of the debt level has generated a lot of debate.

A comparative analysis of the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of a number of countries shows that the ratio of debt-to-GDP is very low in Nigeria.

“Amongst the countries we monitored, Japan recorded the highest debt-to-GDP of 250.40%. This was followed by the United States of America (U.S) with 104.17%; France 96%, United Kingdom (UK) 89.30%; and Germany 68.30%. India and China have a debt-to-GDP of 69.50% and 42.90% respectively. South Africa and Venezuela have debt-to-GDP of 50.10% and 49.80% respectively,” it said.

Available data from the Debt Management Office (DMO) shows that Nigeria’s total debt stock as at March 2017 stood at N19.16trn, representing an increase of 10.37% from the December 2016 figure of N17.36trn.

This also represents growth of 153.63% from N7.55trn in 2012. A breakdown of the debt stock shows that external debt accounted for 22.08% (N4.23trn), while domestic debt stock accounted for 77.92% (N14.93trn).

The increase in the total debt is attributable to the following factors: the need to fund infrastructure and to supplement the declining government revenue. Many analysts have argued that the increase in government’s appetite for borrowing has crowded out the private sector.

The proportion of domestic debt to total public debt dropped consistently between 2013 and Q1

2017.

On the average, the proportion of domestic debt to total debt was 85% between 2012 and 2015; but reduced to 78% between 2016 and Q1 2017.

The increase in external borrowing and the impact of exchange rate depreciation were the main reasons for the reduction in the proportion of the domestic debt stock. The FGN has set what it believes to be an optimal domestic debt to external debt ratio at 60:40. At the current (external to domestic debt) level of 78:22, it appears that there is still room to increase the external debt component of the total debt stock.

The debt-to-GDP in Nigeria as at December 2016 stood at 17.11%. This is far below the critical limit of 40% the FGN has set for the Nigerian economy.

This means that, by this metric alone, there is substantial room for the government to increase its borrowing.

However, the debt-to-GDP ratio is not the only issue. The major stress point is the rising level of interest payment relative to government revenue. The ratio of interest payment-to-government-revenue increased from 24.48% in 2012 to an estimated 35.32% in 2016.

The FGN expects that this ratio will moderate slightly to 33.67% in 2017.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget

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domestic debt servicing

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.

She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.

According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.

However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.

She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.

“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.

“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.

“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.

“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.

Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.

She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.

The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.

She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.

Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.

She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.

The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.

“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.

“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

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Economy

Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally

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Customs Street Nigerian Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.

Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.

Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.

Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.

On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.

Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.

Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.

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Economy

Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation

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Rite foods stamp black

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.

In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.

Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.

“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.

He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.

Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.

“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”

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