By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has pegged the exchange rate at N410.15/$1 and the crude oil benchmark at $57 per barrel for the 2022 budget it is planning to submit to the National Assembly for approval.
The Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Mrs Zainab Ahmed, confirmed this on Monday at an interactive session organised by the House of Representatives Committee on Finance on the 2022-2024 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper (MTEF/FSP) in Abuja.
Mrs Ahmed noted that the perception of the naira as being overvalued despite recent adjustment by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has compounded Nigeria’s risk aversion in the global capital market, which she said would further put pressure on the foreign exchange market, stressing that foreign portfolio investors have yet to return to the Nigerian market.
The Minister stated that while the government plans to borrow to fund the N5.62 trillion deficits in 2022, it will reduce capital expenditure by N259.3 billion, as the reduction would become necessary due to economic volatility occasioned by the unstable global oil market as well as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
She added that for capital expenditure next year, ministries, departments and agencies would get N1.76 trillion as opposed to the N2.02 trillion spent in 2021.
Other key macro-economic assumptions in the MTEF/FSP include a crude oil benchmark crude oil production of 1.88 million barrels per day, an inflation rate of 13 per cent, and a nominal gross domestic product (GDP) of 149.4 trillion.
The Minister noted that interestingly, non-oil GDP continues to grow at 169.7 trillion, compared to oil GDP of 14.7 trillion included in the nominal GDP while nominal consumption is 1.3 trillion.
She said, “The budget deficit and the financing items for the expenditure projected for 2022 is N5.62 trillion, up from N5.60 trillion in 2021.
“The deficit is going to be financed by new foreign and domestic borrowings, both domestic and foreign, in the sum of N4.89 trillion, then privatisation proceeds of N90.73 billion and drawdowns from project titles of N635 billion.
“This amount represents 3.05 per cent of the estimated GDP, which is slightly above the 3 per cent threshold that is spent recommended in the Fiscal Responsibility Act. The revenue that we expect is N6.54 trillion, N2.62 trillion to accrue to the Federation Account and Value Added Tax (VAT), respectively.”
Mrs Ahmed further said the net oil and gas revenue, which would be available for the federation account for distribution, would be N6.151 trillion in 2022.
Dipo Olowookere