Economy
Firm Unveils Volatility Index for Nigerian Stock Market
By Quantitative Financial Analytics
Stock market volatility is one of those words that are being thrown around every now and then when describing stock market behaviours.
For example, on January 29, 2016, The Vanguard had an article entitled, “Stock Market Volatility – Operators Seek Govt Intervention Fund”, and On November 11, 2017, it also had another article, The ‘Big Oil’ and market volatilities”.
In the same way, ThisDay newspaper, on June 23, 2014 wrote “Stock Market Volatility Persists”. Even on LinkedIn pages, people write about market volatilities like the one written by Rotimi Fakayejo, MD Enterprise StockBrokers Plc on September 9, 2015, who posted the article “Gainers & Losers of the volatility of the Nigerian Bourse” on his LinkedIn page.
The Guardian on its business page wrote, “Equities rise on the Exchange amid volatility” on February 8, 2015.
Those are excellent articles both in content and intent although some made it look like market volatility is necessarily a bad thing. But one thing lacking in the articles is the quantification of how volatile the Nigerian market had been or was expected to be.
There have been various explanations for increased or subdued volatilities in the market as some of those articles opined. One reason is the arrival of new and unanticipated information that tends to or alters the expected return on a stock.
News items like the Brexit, the Chinese contagion, escalation of the US-North Korea impasse can have remarkable effects on market volatility. Changes in volatility can even emanate from changes in investors’ behaviours like when investors panic in anticipation of an election result or FED or Central bank decisions on interest rates, etc.
Volatility does not imply that the market is collapsing; rather, it implies that the market is behaving in such a way that it is more difficult to make accurate predictions about the market based on currently prevailing data and information.
Depending on one’s investment strategy and horizon and subject to the availability of tradable financial instruments, investors can manage and even profit from volatility.
In more advanced markets with tradable financial products like variance and volatility swaps, volatility may present opportunities for profit.
It follows therefore that knowledge of volatility of returns in stock markets’ behaviour is of paramount importance to investors because such knowledge helps investors to know or gain more information on the data generating such returns.
Knowing how volatile the stock market has been or is expected to be, guides investors in their decision-making process as such knowledge enables them to access both the return potential of the market as well as the uncertainty of such returns.
Volatility is the “magnitude of movements regardless of direction” and stock market volatility relates to the magnitude of price changes without paying attention to whether the change is up or down.
Stock market volatility is captured by two broad measures: implied and realized volatility. Realized volatility differs from implied volatility.
While implied volatility is a forward-looking measure, realized volatility is historical or backward looking.
Implied volatility answers the question, what is the expected volatility of the market in so and so time while realized volatility answers the question, what was or is the actual market volatility in so and so period.
While realized volatility is based on the actual movement of an underlying, implied volatility is based on a value derived from associated options prices. Realized volatility measures real risk while implied volatility measures anticipated risk.
Indices that measure volatility abound the world over especially in more advanced markets. The Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE)’s VIX, otherwise called the fear gauge, measures implied volatility in the US market while India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices in India and is meant to measure implied volatility in Indian stock market.
In the UK, implied volatility is measured with the FTSE IVI and is based on the index’s underlying option prices. In abundance also are realized volatility measures in more advanced markets like those calculated by S&P Dow Jones.
Currently, there is no index that measures implied or realized volatilities of the Nigerian stock market. The absence of an implied volatility measure is understandable as such is derivable from options and options are non-existent in the Nigerian market.
Realized volatility on the other hand, is derivable from historical data. To fill this gap, analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics have come up with a Realized Volatility Index for the Nigerian Market.
The index is a one-month look back volatility measure of the NSE All Share index, (hereinafter called the underlying index). It assumes a 21-day monthly trading period and multiplies the result by 100 to reflect the index as a percentage.
The index is calculated daily and for all the trading dates that its underlying index (ASI) is calculated. The index has been calculated from 1998 to present and gives a bird’s eye view of the most and least volatile periods of the Nigerian stock market.
Comparatively speaking, the S&P 500 1-month realized index as at November 22, 2017 was 5.85, down from 5.87 the previous day while the Quantitative Financial Analytics (QFA) Nigeria All Share Index realized volatility index for corresponding period was 6.45, down from 6.55 the previous day.
Now, it is easy to talk about market volatility in Nigeria with some specifics and ability to compare with other markets and periods, at least in realized terms.
Quantitative Financial Analytics continues to add value to the Nigerian market with its many analytics.
It will be recalled that not long above, it rolled out its Fixed Income Analytics Report, which is a report with robust data and information on sovereign and corporate bonds trading in the Nigerian market.
For more information on the index and other reports, please contact us at [email protected]
Economy
Oil Prices Climb on Worries of Possible Iran-US Conflict
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher on Friday as traders worried that this week’s talks between the US and Iran had failed to reduce the risk of a military conflict between the two countries.
Brent crude futures traded at $68.05 a barrel after going up by 50 cents or 0.74 per cent, and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $63.55 a barrel due to the addition of 26 cents or 0.41 per cent.
Iran and the US held negotiations in Muscat, the capital of Oman, on Friday to overcome sharp differences over Iran’s nuclear programme.
It was reported that the talks had ended with Iran’s foreign minister saying negotiators will return to their capitals for consultations and the talks will continue.
Regardless, the meeting kept investors anxious about geopolitical risk, as Iran wanted to stick to nuclear issues while the US wanted to discuss Iran’s ballistic missiles and support for armed groups in the region.
Any escalation of tension between the two nations could disrupt oil flows, since about a fifth of the world’s total consumption passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, as does Iran, which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
According to Reuters, Iran objected to the presence of any US Central Command (CENTCOM) or other regional military officials, saying that would jeopardise the process.
The current confrontation was sparked by more than two weeks of unrest in Iran that saw authorities launch a deadly crackdown that killed thousands of civilians and shocked the world. As reports of the deaths trickled out of Iran, US President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if any of the tens of thousands of protesters arrested were executed.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s planned oil exports could fall by as much as 35 per cent this month via its main route through Russia, as the country’s top oil company, Tengiz oilfield, slowly recovers from fires at power facilities in January.
ING analysts have pointed out Iran’s neighbour, Iraq, and a disagreement with the US as another bullish factor for oil prices. It seems Iraqi politicians favour Mr Nouri al-Maliki as the country’s next Prime Minister, but the US thinks Mr al-Maliki is too close to Iran. President Trump has already threatened the oil producer with consequences if he emerges as PM.
Economy
Adedeji Urges Nigeria to Add More Products to Export Basket
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, has urged the country to broaden its export basket beyond raw materials by embracing ideas, innovation and the production of more value-added and complex products
Mr Adedeji said this during the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the Faculty of Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State, on Thursday.
The NRS chairman, in the lecture entitled From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy, revealed that Nigeria experienced stagnation in its export drive over three decades, from 1998 to 2023, and added only six new products to its export basket during that period.
He stressed the need to rethink growth through the lens of complexity by not just producing more of the same stuff, lamenting that Nigeria possesses a high-tech oil sector and a low-productivity informal sector, as well as lacking “the vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity,” he said in a statement by his special adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi.
Mr Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the world by comparative studies of success and failure, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil.
“We are not just looking at numbers in a vacuum; we are looking at the strategic choices made by nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa over the same twenty-five-year period. While there are many ways to underperform, the path to success is remarkably consistent: it is defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.
“When we put these stories together, the divergence is clear. Vietnam used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while the others remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.
“There are three big lessons here for us in Nigeria as we think about our roadmap. First, avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities,” he stated, adding that for Nigeria, which is at an even earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.
“Relying solely on our natural endowments isn’t just a path to stagnation; it’s a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground. If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products,” the taxman stated.
He added that President Bola Tinubu has already begun the difficult work of rebuilding the economy, building collective knowledge to innovate, produce, and build a resilient economy.
Economy
Nigeria Inaugurates Strategy to Tap into $7.7trn Global Halal Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Thursday inaugurated Nigeria’s National Halal Economy Strategy to tap into the $7.7 trillion global halal market and diversify its economy.
President Tinubu, while inaugurating the strategy, called for disciplined, inclusive, and measurable action for the strategy to deliver jobs and shared prosperity across the country.
Represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, he described the unveiling of the strategy as a signal of Nigeria’s readiness to join the world in grabbing a huge chunk of the global halal economy already embraced by leading nations.
“As well as to clearly define the nation’s direction within the market, is expected to add an estimated $1.5 billion to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. It is with this sense of responsibility that I formally unveil the Nigeria National Halal Economy Strategy.
“This document is a declaration of our promise to meet global standards with Nigerian capacity and to convert opportunity into lasting economic value. What follows must be action that is disciplined, inclusive, and measurable, so that this Strategy delivers jobs, exports, and shared prosperity across our nation.
“It is going to be chaired by the supremely competent Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.”
The president explained that the halal-compliant food exports, developing pharmaceutical and cosmetic value chains would position Nigeria as a halal-friendly tourism destination, and mobilising ethical finance at scale,” by 2030.
“The cumulative efforts “are projected to unlock over twelve billion dollars in economic value.
“While strengthening food security, deepening industrial capacity, and creating opportunities for small-and-medium-sized enterprises across our states,” he added.
Allaying concerns by those linking the halal with religious affiliation, President Tinubu pointed out that the global halal economy had since outgrown parochial interpretations.
“It is no longer defined solely by faith, but by trust, through systems that emphasise quality, traceability, safety, and ethical production. These principles resonate far beyond any single community.
“They speak to consumers, investors, and trading partners who increasingly demand certainty in how goods are produced, financed, and delivered. It is within this broader understanding that Nigeria now positions itself.”
Tinubu said many advanced Western economies had since “recognised the commercial and ethical appeal of the halal economy and have integrated it into their export and quality-assurance systems.”
President Tinubu listed developed countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
“They are currently among the “leading producers, certifiers, and exporters of halal food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and financial products.”
He stated that what these developed nations had experienced is a confirmation of a simple truth, that “the halal economy is a global market framework rooted in standards, safety, and consumer trust, not geography or belief.”
The president explained that the Nigeria national halal economy strategy is the result of careful study and sober reflection.
He added that it was inspired by the commitment of his administration of “to diversify exports, attract foreign direct investment, and create sustainable jobs across the federation.
“It is also the product of deliberate partnership, developed with the Halal Products Development Company, a subsidiary of the Saudi Public Investment Fund.
“And Dar Al Halal Group Nigeria, with technical backing from institutions such as the Islamic Development Bank and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa.”
The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said the inauguration of the strategy was a public-private collaboration that has involved extensive interaction with stakeholders.
Mrs Oduwole, who is the Chairperson, National Halal Strategy Committee, said that the private sector led the charge in ensuring that it is a whole-of-government and whole-of-country intervention.
The minister stressed that what the Halal strategy had done for Nigeria “is to position us among countries that export Halal-certified goods across the world.
The minister said, “We are going to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to ensure that we export our Halal-friendly goods to the rest of Africa and beyond to any willing markets; participation is voluntary. “
She assured that as the Chairperson, her ministry would deliver on the objectives of the strategy for the prosperity of the nation.
The Chairman of Dar Al-Halal Group Nigeria L.td, Mr Muhammadu Dikko-Ladan, explained that the Halal Product Development Company collaborated with the group in developing the strategy.
“In addition to the strategy, an export programme is underway involving the Ministry of Trade and Investment, through which Nigerian companies can be onboarded into the Saudi Arabian market and beyond.£
Mr Dikko-Ladan described the Strategy as a landmark opportunity for Nigeria, as it creates market access and attracts foreign direct investment.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism9 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn











