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Economy

Firm Unveils Volatility Index for Nigerian Stock Market

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Volatility Index for Nigerian Stock Market

By Quantitative Financial Analytics

Stock market volatility is one of those words that are being thrown around every now and then when describing stock market behaviours.

For example, on January 29, 2016, The Vanguard had an article entitled, “Stock Market Volatility – Operators Seek Govt Intervention Fund”, and On November 11, 2017, it also had another article, The ‘Big Oil’ and market volatilities”.

In the same way, ThisDay newspaper, on June 23, 2014 wrote “Stock Market Volatility Persists”. Even on LinkedIn pages, people write about market volatilities like the one written by Rotimi Fakayejo, MD Enterprise StockBrokers Plc on September 9, 2015, who posted the article “Gainers & Losers of the volatility of the Nigerian Bourse” on his LinkedIn page.

The Guardian on its business page wrote, “Equities rise on the Exchange amid volatility” on February 8, 2015.

Those are excellent articles both in content and intent although some made it look like market volatility is necessarily a bad thing. But one thing lacking in the articles is the quantification of how volatile the Nigerian market had been or was expected to be.

There have been various explanations for increased or subdued volatilities in the market as some of those articles opined. One reason is the arrival of new and unanticipated information that tends to or alters the expected return on a stock.

News items like the Brexit, the Chinese contagion, escalation of the US-North Korea impasse can have remarkable effects on market volatility. Changes in volatility can even emanate from changes in investors’ behaviours like when investors panic in anticipation of an election result or FED or Central bank decisions on interest rates, etc.

Volatility does not imply that the market is collapsing; rather, it implies that the market is behaving in such a way that it is more difficult to make accurate predictions about the market based on currently prevailing data and information.

Depending on one’s investment strategy and horizon and subject to the availability of tradable financial instruments, investors can manage and even profit from volatility.

In more advanced markets with tradable financial products like variance and volatility swaps, volatility may present opportunities for profit.

It follows therefore that knowledge of volatility of returns in stock markets’ behaviour is of paramount importance to investors because such knowledge helps investors to know or gain more information on the data generating such returns.

Knowing how volatile the stock market has been or is expected to be, guides investors in their decision-making process as such knowledge enables them to access both the return potential of the market as well as the uncertainty of such returns.

Volatility is the “magnitude of movements regardless of direction” and stock market volatility relates to the magnitude of price changes without paying attention to whether the change is up or down.

Stock market volatility is captured by two broad measures: implied and realized volatility. Realized volatility differs from implied volatility.

While implied volatility is a forward-looking measure, realized volatility is historical or backward looking.

Implied volatility answers the question, what is the expected volatility of the market in so and so time while realized volatility answers the question, what was or is the actual market volatility in so and so period.

While realized volatility is based on the actual movement of an underlying, implied volatility is based on a value derived from associated options prices. Realized volatility measures real risk while implied volatility measures anticipated risk.

Indices that measure volatility abound the world over especially in more advanced markets. The Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE)’s VIX, otherwise called the fear gauge, measures implied volatility in the US market while India VIX is a volatility index based on the NIFTY Index Option prices in India and is meant to measure implied volatility in Indian stock market.

In the UK, implied volatility is measured with the FTSE IVI and is based on the index’s underlying option prices. In abundance also are realized volatility measures in more advanced markets like those calculated by S&P Dow Jones.

Currently, there is no index that measures implied or realized volatilities of the Nigerian stock market. The absence of an implied volatility measure is understandable as such is derivable from options and options are non-existent in the Nigerian market.

Realized volatility on the other hand, is derivable from historical data. To fill this gap, analysts at Quantitative Financial Analytics have come up with a Realized Volatility Index for the Nigerian Market.

The index is a one-month look back volatility measure of the NSE All Share index, (hereinafter called the underlying index). It assumes a 21-day monthly trading period and multiplies the result by 100 to reflect the index as a percentage.

The index is calculated daily and for all the trading dates that its underlying index (ASI) is calculated. The index has been calculated from 1998 to present and gives a bird’s eye view of the most and least volatile periods of the Nigerian stock market.

Comparatively speaking, the S&P 500 1-month realized index as at November 22, 2017 was 5.85, down from 5.87 the previous day while the Quantitative Financial Analytics (QFA) Nigeria All Share Index realized volatility index for corresponding period was 6.45, down from 6.55 the previous day.

Now, it is easy to talk about market volatility in Nigeria with some specifics and ability to compare with other markets and periods, at least in realized terms.

Quantitative Financial Analytics continues to add value to the Nigerian market with its many analytics.

It will be recalled that not long above, it rolled out its Fixed Income Analytics Report, which is a report with robust data and information on sovereign and corporate bonds trading in the Nigerian market.

For more information on the index and other reports, please contact us at an*******@****************ia.com

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Flour Mills Supports 2026 Paris International Agricultural Show

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flour mills PIAS 2026

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

For the second time, Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc is sponsoring the Paris International Agricultural Show (PIAS) as part of its strategies to fortify its ties with France.

The 2026 PIAS kicked off on February 21 and will end on March 1, with about 607,503 visitors, nearly 4,000 animals, and over 1,000 exhibitors in attendance last year, and this year’s programme has already shown signs of being bigger and better.

The theme for this year’s event is Generations Solution. It is to foster knowledge transfer from younger generations and structure processes through which knowledge can be harnessed to drive technological advancement within the global agricultural sector.

In his address on the inaugural day of the Nigerian Pavilion on February 23, the Managing Director for FMN Agro and Director of Strategic Engagement/Stakeholder Relations, Mr Sadiq Usman, said, “At FMN, our mission is Feeding and Enriching Lives Every Day.

“This is a mandate we have fulfilled through decades of economic shifts, rooted in a culture of deep resilience and constant innovation. We support this pavilion because FMN recognises that the next frontier of global Agribusiness lies in high-level technical exchange.

“We thank the France-Nigeria Business Council (FNBC), the organisers of the PIAS, and our fellow members of the Nigerian Pavilion – Dangote, BUA, Zenith, Access, and our partners at Creativo El Matador and Soilless Farm Lab— we are exceedingly pleased to work to showcase the true face of Nigerian commerce.”

Speaking on the invaluable nature of the relationship between Nigeria and France, and the FMN’s commitment to process and product innovation, Mr John G. Coumantaros, stated, “The France – Nigeria relationship is a valuable partnership built on a shared value agenda that fosters remarkable Intercontinental trade growth.

“Also, as an organisation with over six decades of transformational footprint in Nigeria and progressively across the African Continent, FMN has been unwaveringly committed to product and process innovation.

“Therefore, our continuous partnership with France for the success of the Paris International Agricultural Show further buttresses the thriving relationship between both countries.”

PIAS is one of the most widely attended agricultural shows, with thousands of people from across the world in attendance.

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Economy

NEITI Backs Tinubu’s Executive Order 9 on Oil Revenue Remittances

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NEITI

By Adedapo Adesanya

Despite reservations from some quarters, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has praised President Bola Tinubu’s Executive Order 9, which mandates direct remittances of all government revenues from tax oil, profit oil, profit gas, and royalty oil under Production Sharing Contracts, profit sharing, and risk service contracts straight to the Federation Account.

Issued on February 13, 2026, the order aims to safeguard oil and gas revenues, curb wasteful spending, and eliminate leakages by requiring operators to pay all entitlements directly into the federation account.

NEITI executive secretary, Musa Sarkin Adar, called it “a bold step in ongoing fiscal reforms to improve financial transparency, strengthen accountability, and mobilise resources for citizens’ development,” noting that the directive aligns with Section 162 of Nigeria’s Constitution.

He noted that for 20 years, NEITI has pushed for all government revenues to flow into the Federation Account transparently, calling the move a win.

For instance, in its 2017 report titled Unremitted Funds, Economic Recovery and Oil Sector Reform, NEITI revealed that over $20 billion in due remittances had not reached the government, fueling fiscal woes and prompting high-level reforms.

Mr Adar described the order as a key milestone in Nigeria’s EITI implementation and urged amendments to align it with these reforms.

He affirmed NEITI’s role in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and pledged close collaboration with stakeholders, anti-corruption bodies, and partners to sustain transparent management of Nigeria’s mineral resources.

Meanwhile, others like the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) have kicked against the order, saying it poses a serious threat to the stability of the oil and gas industry, calling it a “direct attack” on the PIA.

Speaking at the union’s National Executive Council (NEC) meeting in Abuja on Tuesday, PENGASSAN President, Mr Festus Osifo, said provisions of the order, particularly the directive to remit 30 per cent of profit oil from Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs) directly to the Federation Account, could destabilise operations at the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.

Mr Osifo firmly dispelled rumours of imminent protests by the union, despite widespread claims that the controversial executive order threatens the livelihoods of 10,000 senior staff workers at NNPC.

He noted, however, that the union had begun engagements with government officials, including the Presidential Implementation Committee, and expressed optimism that common ground would be reached.

Mr Osifo, who also serves as President of the Trade Union Congress (TUC), expressed concerns that diverting the 30 per cent profit oil allocation to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC), without clearly defining how the statutory management fee would be refunded to NNPC, could affect the salaries of hundreds of PENGASSAN members.

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Economy

Dangote Cement Deepens Dominance, Export Activities With $1bn Sinoma Deal

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Dangote Cement Sinoma

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

To strengthen its domestic market dominance, drive its export activities, optimise existing operational assets and enhance production efficiency and capacity expansion, Dangote Cement Plc has sealed $1 billion strategic agreements with Sinoma International Engineering for cement projects across Africa.

The president of Dangote Industries Limited, the parent firm of Dangote Cement, Mr Aliko Dangote, disclosed that the deal reinforces the company’s long-term growth strategy and aligns with the broader aspirations of the Dangote Group’s Vision 2030.

According to him, Sinoma will construct 12 new projects and expand others for the cement organisation across Africa, helping to achieve 80 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) production capacity by 2030, while supporting the group’s overarching target of generating $100 billion in revenue within the same period.

Under the Strategic Framework Agreement, Sinoma will collaborate with Dangote Cement on the delivery of new plants, brownfield expansions, and modernisation initiatives aimed at strengthening operational performance across key markets.

The new projects include a new integrated line in Northern Nigeria with a satellite grinding unit, a new line in Ethiopia and other projects in Zambia/Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Sierra Leone and Cameroon. In Nigeria, Sinoma will also handle different projects in Itori, Apapa, Lekki, Port Harcourt and Onne.

The projects signal Dangote Cement’s sustained commitment to consolidating its leadership position within the African cement industry, while enhancing its competitiveness on the global stage.

Chairman of the Dangote Cement board, Mr Emmanuel Ikazoboh, during the agreement signing event in Lagos, explained that the new projects would enable the company to play a critical role in actualising Dangote Group’s Vision 2030.

The new projects, when completed, will increase Dangote Cement’s capacity and dominant position in Africa’s cement industry.

On his part, the Managing Director of Dangote Cement, Mr Arvind Pathak, said the agreement reflects the company’s determination to grow its investments across African markets to close supply gaps and support the continent’s infrastructural ambitions.

According to him, Dangote Cement is committed to making Africa fully self‑sufficient in cement production, creating more value and linkages, leading to increased economic activities and a reduction in unemployment.

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