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Fitch Rates Seplat Proposed Dollar-Denominated Bond Issuance

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By Dipo Olowookere

Last week, one of the companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc (Seplat) announced its intention to issue five or seven-year Dollar denominated bonds to foreign investors.

The notes would be issue to refinance the company’s debts, a statement signed by the oil firm had disclosed.

With investors gearing up for the exercise, one of the renowned rating agencies in the world, Fitch Ratings, has assigned expected senior unsecured ‘B-(EXP)’/’RR4(EXP)’ ratings to the proposed bond issuance.

This information was made known in a statement issued by Fitch on Wednesday, February 28, 2018, which was obtained by Business Post.

Also in the statement, Fitch assigned an expected Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of ‘B-(EXP)’ with a Positive Outlook to Seplat.

According to the rating firm, the expected IDR assumes a successful refinancing in 2018, i.e., issuance of USD-denominated senior notes and signing of a new long-term revolving credit facility (RCF).

The assignment of a final IDR is contingent upon the successful completion of the refinancing, with terms and conditions in line with our current assumptions.

The assignment of a final rating to the notes is contingent upon receipt of final documentation substantially in line with draft documentation reviewed.

The ‘B-(EXP)’ IDR reflects Seplat’s small scale by production and reserves, concentration of onshore exploration and production (E&P) assets in Nigeria (B+/Negative), and the cash flow volatility that has been associated with its operating environment.

Specifically, between February 2016 and June 2017, Seplat’s performance was severely impacted by a militant attack and subsequent prolonged downtime at the Forcados oil pipeline and export terminal. The company also has large, albeit declining, receivables from state-owned Nigerian Petroleum Development Company (NPDC).

The force majeure was lifted in June 2017 and Seplat has been ramping up production at its main asset.

Fitch said the Positive Outlook assigned to Seplat reflects its view that the Amukpe-Escravos oil pipeline, which Seplat anticipates to be fully commissioned and operational in Q318, will somewhat mitigate cash flow volatility by providing a viable alternative export route to Seplat.

The successful completion and start of operations of the Escravos oil pipeline coupled with continued production ramp-up across Seplat’s upstream assets could result in an upgrade of the IDR to ‘B’.

Along with the post-restructuring capital structure, the rating captures Seplat’s financial profile over 2018-2020, with forecast funds from operations (FFO) net adjusted leverage expected to remain comfortably below the 3.5x negative sensitivity.

On the key rating drivers, Fitch said Seplat, as a small E&P company with onshore oil and gas assets in Nigeria, had its full year 2017 working interest (WI) production around 37 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboepd), split nearly equally between liquids and natural gas.

Its main assets are the Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) 4, 38 and 41, production at which was severely constrained in 2016-1H17 due to the closure of the Forcados oil pipeline and export terminal following an attack.

Fitch forecasts that Seplat will continue ramping up its daily oil and gas output to 68kboepd in 2021, which incorporates our conservative estimate of a 20 percent additional downtime on the management forecasts.

It also believes that even following Seplat’s expected production ramp-up in 2018-2021 it will remain a small E&P company with a significant onshore asset concentration in one country. Its WI production and reserves (end-2016 – 241mmboe of proved or 1P reserves) remain commensurate with the ‘B’ category rating for an E&P company.

Fitch said to avoid a repetition of a prolonged downtime experienced when force majeure was declared on the Forcados oil pipeline and export terminal, Seplat and the Nigerian authorities have been working on a number of security options and alternative export routes.

The Nigerian government has prioritised the completion of the 160kbopd Amukpe-Escravos oil pipeline. Seplat currently expects the pipeline to be fully commissioned and operational in 3Q18.

In addition to the Escravos pipeline, two jetties at the domestic Warri oil refinery have been upgraded to allow exports of 30kbopd gross.

However, this is a more expensive option as barging of crude is required and Seplat plans to use Escravos as the primary crude export route, supported by Forcados and the Warri refinery routes.

“We believe that these measures when fully operational should provide adequate flexible cover for Seplat’s export transportation needs, but nonetheless conservatively model additional downtime of 20% in our forecasts for 2018-2020,” the rating agency said in its report.

It noted that following the resumption of production at OLMs 4, 38 and 41 in June 2017, Seplat’s financial profile has improved materially.

“Our 2017 base case forecasts FFO at $134 million vs. negative $11 million in 2016 and FFO net adjusted leverage of 2.5x vs. 8.5x at end-2016.

“We expect that Seplat will maintain a conservative financial profile over 2018-2020, with positive free cash flow (FCF), FFO adjusted net leverage under 2.5x and interest coverage of at least 3x,” it said.

Seplat’s 2017 gas revenues of $124 million were up 18 percent year-on-year and its daily gas sales averaged 293MMscfd (gross, not WI) in 4Q17. Seplat aims to increase gas supply to the domestic Nigerian market. Its gas processing capacity stands at 525MMscfd, while current wells can deliver around 400MMscfd (gross).

Nigerian gas prices are largely de-linked from oil prices, e.g. while average realised oil prices dropped by 21 percent between 2015 and 2016, gas prices increased by 19 percent. Seplat projects a higher share of gas in its production volumes, from 50 percent in 2017 to 60 percent in 2021.

“We view positively the higher share of gas in the sales mix, as it provides a more stable source of revenues.

However, gas remains the smaller business and is projected to account for less than 25 percent of the company’s gross revenues in 2021. Gas sales are also subject to credit risks and FX risks, as USD-linked payments for gas are made in Naira,” Fitch stated.

The rating company said the senior notes and secured RCF are expected to be issued by Seplat and will benefit from pari-passu upstream guarantees from Seplat West Ltd (contributor to almost 100 percent of consolidated EBITDA in 2017), Newton Energy and Seplat East Swamp Ltd.

The RCF will further benefit from a security package including a pledge over the shares of Seplat West and Newton, thus ranking it ahead of senior notes under our recovery analysis.

The notes benefit from a standard high-yield covenant package including covenants on permitted payments, incurrence of indebtedness and issuance of preferred stock, merger, consolidation or sale of assets, investments, creation of certain liens, pari passu in right of payment, and contain no financial maintenance covenants.

On its key assumptions, Fitch said they were based on Brent price deck of $52.5/bbl in 2018, $55/bbl in 2019 and $57.5/bbl thereafter; successful renewal of licenses for OMLs 4, 38 and 41 that expire in June 2019; domestic gas prices of between $2.5/mscf and $3/mscf, in line with management forecasts; and daily oil and gas production volumes ramping up from about 37kboepd in 2017 to 68kboepd in 2021, including a 20 percent additional downtime on the management forecasts.

Other were Opex (excluding royalties) improving from about $7.5/boe in 9M17 to about $6.5/boe in 2020-2021, 20 percent more conservative than management forecasts; average capex of about $105 million in 2017-2021, in line with management forecasts; and other cash inflows and outflows as projected plus $100 million additional outflows assumed by Fitch in each 2019-2021.

On the assumptions that relate to recovery estimates, Fitch its bespoke recovery analysis considered Seplat’s value on a going-concern basis in a distressed scenario and assumed that the company would keep its operating licenses and would be restructured rather than liquidated.

Fitch also applied a 25 percent discount to the 2017 EBITDA reflecting its view of a sustainable, post-reorganisation level upon which it based the valuation of the company. The discount reflects risks associated with the oil price volatility, potential unplanned downtime and other adverse factors.

In addition, the 4.5x multiple was used to calculate a post-reorganisation enterprise value (EV), reflecting a mid-cycle multiple for oil & gas and metals & mining companies in the EMEA region. This considered that Seplat does not have any unique characteristic that would allow for a higher multiple, such as significant market share, or undervalued assets.

As per Fitch’s criteria, the new and prior ranking RCF is assumed to be fully drawn and it has also taken 10 percent off the EV to account for administrative claims.

The waterfall results in a 100 percent recovery corresponding to a ‘RR1’ Recovery Rating for the RCF. The noteholders could achieve a recovery of 70% (RR3) but are capped at ‘RR4’ (soft cap), in line with Fitch’s criteria as Seplat’s physical assets are located in Nigeria.

Fitch said it expects Seplat’s liquidity to improve post refinancing, supported by positive FCF generation and a manageable maturity profile.

Fitch-projected FCF is around $125 million in 2018 and $66 million in 2019 because as at December 31, 2017, Seplat had the equivalent of $437 million in cash.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Adedeji Urges Nigeria to Add More Products to Export Basket

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nigeria Export Basket

By Adedapo Adesanya

The chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, has urged the country to broaden its export basket beyond raw materials by embracing ideas, innovation and the production of more value-added and complex products

Mr Adedeji said this during the maiden distinguished personality lecture of the Faculty of Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Osun State, on Thursday.

The NRS chairman, in the lecture entitled From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy, revealed that Nigeria experienced stagnation in its export drive over three decades, from 1998 to 2023, and added only six new products to its export basket during that period.

He stressed the need to rethink growth through the lens of complexity by not just producing more of the same stuff, lamenting that Nigeria possesses a high-tech oil sector and a low-productivity informal sector, as well as lacking “the vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity,” he said in a statement by his special adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi.

Mr Adedeji urged Nigeria to learn from the world by comparative studies of success and failure, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Africa, and Brazil.

“We are not just looking at numbers in a vacuum; we are looking at the strategic choices made by nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa over the same twenty-five-year period. While there are many ways to underperform, the path to success is remarkably consistent: it is defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.

“When we put these stories together, the divergence is clear. Vietnam used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while the others remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.

“There are three big lessons here for us in Nigeria as we think about our roadmap. First, avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities,” he stated, adding that for Nigeria, which is at an even earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.

“Relying solely on our natural endowments isn’t just a path to stagnation; it’s a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground. If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products,” the taxman stated.

He added that President Bola Tinubu has already begun the difficult work of rebuilding the economy, building collective knowledge to innovate, produce, and build a resilient economy.

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Nigeria Inaugurates Strategy to Tap into $7.7trn Global Halal Market

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Halal Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu on Thursday inaugurated Nigeria’s National Halal Economy Strategy to tap into the $7.7 trillion global halal market and diversify its economy.

President Tinubu, while inaugurating the strategy, called for disciplined, inclusive, and measurable action for the strategy to deliver jobs and shared prosperity across the country.

Represented by Vice-President Kashim Shettima, he described the unveiling of the strategy as a signal of Nigeria’s readiness to join the world in grabbing a huge chunk of the global halal economy already embraced by leading nations.

“As well as to clearly define the nation’s direction within the market, is expected to add an estimated $1.5 billion to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2027. It is with this sense of responsibility that I formally unveil the Nigeria National Halal Economy Strategy.

“This document is a declaration of our promise to meet global standards with Nigerian capacity and to convert opportunity into lasting economic value. What follows must be action that is disciplined, inclusive, and measurable, so that this Strategy delivers jobs, exports, and shared prosperity across our nation.

“It is going to be chaired by the supremely competent Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment.”

The president explained that the halal-compliant food exports, developing pharmaceutical and cosmetic value chains would position Nigeria as a halal-friendly tourism destination, and mobilising ethical finance at scale,” by 2030.

“The cumulative efforts “are projected to unlock over twelve billion dollars in economic value.

“While strengthening food security, deepening industrial capacity, and creating opportunities for small-and-medium-sized enterprises across our states,” he added.

Allaying concerns by those linking the halal with religious affiliation, President Tinubu pointed out that the global halal economy had since outgrown parochial interpretations.

“It is no longer defined solely by faith, but by trust, through systems that emphasise quality, traceability, safety, and ethical production. These principles resonate far beyond any single community.

“They speak to consumers, investors, and trading partners who increasingly demand certainty in how goods are produced, financed, and delivered. It is within this broader understanding that Nigeria now positions itself.”

Tinubu said many advanced Western economies had since “recognised the commercial and ethical appeal of the halal economy and have integrated it into their export and quality-assurance systems.”

President Tinubu listed developed countries, including the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.

“They are currently among the “leading producers, certifiers, and exporters of halal food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and financial products.”

He stated that what these developed nations had experienced is a confirmation of a simple truth, that “the halal economy is a global market framework rooted in standards, safety, and consumer trust, not geography or belief.”

The president explained that the Nigeria national halal economy strategy is the result of careful study and sober reflection.

He added that it was inspired by the commitment of his administration of “to diversify exports, attract foreign direct investment, and create sustainable jobs across the federation.

“It is also the product of deliberate partnership, developed with the Halal Products Development Company, a subsidiary of the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

“And Dar Al Halal Group Nigeria, with technical backing from institutions such as the Islamic Development Bank and the Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa.”

The Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, said the inauguration of the strategy was a public-private collaboration that has involved extensive interaction with stakeholders.

Mrs Oduwole, who is the Chairperson, National Halal Strategy Committee, said that the private sector led the charge in ensuring that it is a whole-of-government and whole-of-country intervention.

The minister stressed that what the Halal strategy had done for Nigeria “is to position us among countries that export Halal-certified goods across the world.

The minister said, “We are going to leverage the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to ensure that we export our Halal-friendly goods to the rest of Africa and beyond to any willing markets; participation is voluntary. “

She assured that as the Chairperson, her ministry would deliver on the objectives of the strategy for the prosperity of the nation.

The Chairman of Dar Al-Halal Group Nigeria L.td, Mr Muhammadu Dikko-Ladan, explained that the Halal Product Development Company collaborated with the group in developing the strategy.

“In addition to the strategy, an export programme is underway involving the Ministry of Trade and Investment, through which Nigerian companies can be onboarded into the Saudi Arabian market and beyond.£

Mr Dikko-Ladan described the Strategy as a landmark opportunity for Nigeria, as it creates market access and attracts foreign direct investment.

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UK, Canada, Others Back New Cashew Nut Processing Plant Construction in Ogun

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Cashew Nut Processing Plant

By Adedapo Adesanya

GuarantCo, part of the Private Infrastructure Development Group (PIDG), has provided a 100 per cent guarantee to support a $75 million debt facility for Robust International Pte Ltd (Robust) to construct a new cashew nut processing plant in Ogun State, Nigeria.

GuarantCo, under the PIDG is funded by the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Australia, Sweden and Canada, mobilises private sector local currency investment for infrastructure projects and supports the development of financial markets in lower-income countries across Africa and Asia.

Nigeria is one of Africa’s largest cashew producers of 300,000 tonnes of raw cashew nuts annually, yet currently less than 10 per cent are processed domestically. Most raw nuts are exported unprocessed to Asian and other countries, forfeiting up to 80 per cent of their potential export value and adding exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations.

According to GuarantCo, this additional plant will more than double Robust’s existing cashew processing capacity from 100 metric tonnes per day to 220 metric tonnes per day to help reduce this structural gap.

The new plant will be of extensive benefit to the local economy, with the procurement of cashew nuts from around 10,000 primarily low-income smallholder farmers.

There is an expected increase in export revenue of up to $335 million and procurement from the local supply chain over the lifetime of the guarantee.

Furthermore, the new plant will incorporate functionality to convert waste by-products into value-added biomass and biofuel inputs to enhance the environmental impact of the transaction.

It is anticipated that up to 900 jobs will be created, with as many as 78 per cent to be held by women. Robust also has a target to gradually increase the share of procurement from women farmers, from 15 per cent to 25 per cent by 2028, as it reaches new regions in Nigeria and extends its ongoing gender-responsive outreach programme for farmers.

Terms of the deal showed that the debt facility was provided by a Symbiotics-arranged bond platform, which in turn issued notes with the benefit of the GuarantCo guarantee. These notes have been subscribed to in full by M&G Investments. The transaction was executed in record time due to the successful replication of two recent transactions in Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, again in collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics.

Speaking on the development, the British Deputy High Commissioner, Mr Jonny Baxter, said: “The UK is proud to support innovative financing that mobilises private capital into Nigeria’s productive economy through UK-backed institutions such as PIDG. By backing investment into local processing and value addition, this transaction supports jobs, exports and more resilient agricultural supply chains. Complementing this, through the UK-Nigeria Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnerships and the Developing Countries Trading Scheme, the UK is supporting Nigerian businesses to scale exports to the UK and beyond, demonstrating how UK-backed partnerships help firms grow and compete internationally.”

Mr Dave Chalila, Head of Africa and Middle East Investments at GuarantCo, said: “This transaction marks GuarantCo’s third collaboration with M&G Investments and Symbiotics, emphasising our efforts to bring replicability to everything we do so that we accelerate socio-economic development where it matters most. The transaction is consistent with PIDG’s mandate to mobilise private capital into high-impact, underfinanced sectors. In this case, crowding in institutional investors in the African agri-processing value chain.

“As with the two recent similarly structured transactions, funding is channelled through the Symbiotics institutional investor platform, with the notes externally rated by Fitch and benefiting from a rating uplift due to the GuarantCo guarantee.”

Adding his input, Mr Vishanth Narayan, Group Executive Director at Robust International Group, said: “As a global leader in agricultural commodities, Robust International remains steadfast in its commitment to building resilient, ethical and value-adding supply chains across origin and destination markets. This transaction represents an important step in advancing our long-term strategy of strengthening processing capabilities, deepening engagement with farmers and enhancing local value addition in the regions where we operate. Through sustained investment, disciplined execution and decades of operating experience, we continue to focus on delivering reliable, high-quality products while fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth.”

For Ms María Redondo, director at M&G Investments, “The guarantee gives us the assurance to invest in hard currency, emerging market debt, while supporting Robust’s new cashew processing plant in Nigeria. It’s a clear example of how smart credit enhancement can unlock institutional capital for high-impact development and manage currency and credit risks effectively. This is another strong step in channelling institutional capital into meaningful, on‑the‑ground growth.”

Also, Ms Valeria Berzunza, Structuring & Arranging at Symbiotics, said: “We are pleased to continue our collaboration with M&G Investments, GuarantCo, and now with Robust through a transaction with a strong social and gender focus, demonstrating that well-structured products can boost commercially attractive, viable, and impactful investments.”

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