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Fitch Fears Another Naira Devaluation, Downgrades 3 Banks

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Fitch Ratings

By Dipo Olowookere

The ratings of three banks in Nigeria have been downgraded Fitch Ratings amid fears that their operations would be negatively impacted by a further devaluation of the Naira.

A statement issued by the agency said the banks and others in the country will face material pressures from a weaker operating environment over the next few months given the price of crude oil and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on individuals and businesses.

The downgraded lenders are Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) and United Bank for Africa (UBA). Their ratings were lowered to Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) ‘B’ and Viability Rating (VR) ‘b’.

In the statement, Fitch said it has also placed the Long-Term IDRs, VRs and National Ratings of all 10 rated Nigerian banks (excluding Stanbic IBTC Holdings and Stanbic IBTC Bank, which are not assigned VRs and IDRs) on Rating Watch Negative (RWN).

According to the rating firm, before the current crisis, its outlook for the Nigerian banking sector was negative, which reflected tough operating conditions, including slow GDP growth, rising regulatory risks and potential performance pressures.

Fitch said it expects banks’ credit profiles to suffer from weaker asset quality and reduced profitability in the more severe downside scenario.

“Based on experiences from 2015/2016, we expect the current oil price shock to adversely impact the oil and gas sector.

“This sector accounts for around 30 percent of the banking sector’ gross loans, of which a large proportion was restructured during the previous crisis (some are still classified as Stage 2 under IFRS 9).

“Our stress tests show that asset-quality risks arising from deterioration of the banks’ oil and gas exposures are the biggest threat to their ratings.

“Additionally, we expect the non-oil segment to be impacted by the slower economy, but also due to the COVID-19 crisis, which could severely affect communities and industries. It would particularly test the quality of consumer and SME loans,” it said.

Fitch noted that lower oil revenues also raise the prospect of a material Naira devaluation, which would put pressure on the banks’ regulatory capital ratios.

However, it stated that given the banks’ net long foreign-currency positions, its stress tests show that in most cases the impact on Fitch Core Capital (FCC) ratios is tolerable under several scenarios.

“Nigerian banks have reasonable loss absorption buffers, underpinned by strengthened capitalisation since the last crisis.

“In the near-term, healthy earnings will continue to absorb larger credit losses but future profits will be under pressure from slowing loan growth, reduced client activity and higher levels of provisioning for expected credit losses under the IFRS 9 accounting framework,” it noted.

Fitch added that, “On balance, the near-term impact from the oil price shock and COVID-19 on funding and liquidity is likely to be tolerable.

“The primary risk is that lower oil revenues (and Nigeria’s falling FX reserves) could limit banks’ access to foreign currency (FC) liquidity.

“Furthermore, adverse global conditions could impede some banks in raising external financing. Local-currency liquidity remains strong with banks funded mainly by low-cost customer deposits.”

Fitch said it will resolve the RWN once it has assessed how this economic shock impacts the banking system and the credit profiles of each bank, as well as the banks’ ability to adapt.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) recently announced relief measures, which should alleviate some near-term asset-quality pressures.

Some of these include requesting banks to restructure loan tenors and terms for consumers and business that are most affected, particularly borrowers in the oil and gas, agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Budget Office Explains Reason for Quarterly Report Delay

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2026 budget tinubu

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Budget Office of the Federation has defended the delay in publishing three outstanding Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports, saying the situation arose from the repeal and re-enactment of the 2025 Appropriation Act and the subsequent extension of the budget’s implementation period to June 2026.

The last publication on the budget office’s website is Q3 2025, a development that breaks the Fiscal Responsibility Act amid the country’s rising borrowing costs and mounting fiscal pressure.

In a clarification statement, the DG of the Budget Office, Mr Tanimu Yakubu, said public concerns over the absence of the reports must be understood within the constitutional and fiscal framework governing public finance administration in Nigeria, stressing that a fiscal year is not strictly tied to the January–December calendar, but is instead a legislative construct defined by appropriation laws passed by the National Assembly.

“The fiscal year is not necessarily synonymous with the calendar year. The calendar year is a fixed chronological construct of twelve months running from January to December.

“The fiscal year, however, is a juridical and legislative creation whose duration, commencement, and terminal date are determined by the extant appropriation framework enacted by law,” he said.

Mr Yakubu claimed that the recent reporting delay followed the Repeal and Re-enactment of the 2025 Appropriation Act concluded in December 2025, alongside an extension of the budget’s execution period.

These changes, he said, effectively altered the operational timeline for fiscal reporting and necessitated comprehensive reconciliations before publication of the affected quarterly reports.

“In substance and in law, therefore, the fiscal year becomes not merely a chronological concept, but a legislatively sustained expenditure window,” he explained.

The Budget Office further noted that Nigeria’s fiscal practice has historically accommodated adjustments such as supplementary budgets, rollover provisions, and implementation extensions, particularly for capital projects, to ensure continuity and prevent wastage of public resources.

It added that similar practices exist in other jurisdictions, where fiscal years are defined by law rather than fixed to the calendar year.

Citing constitutional provisions, the office referenced Sections 80 and 81 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which require that public expenditure be backed by appropriation laws rather than a rigid annual cycle. It maintained that as long as legislative authority exists, expenditure remains valid within the approved framework.

The DG also pointed to judicial precedents underscoring the supremacy of the National Assembly in public finance matters, noting that executive spending must align with statutory approval.

He also explained that the current reconciliation process involves revenue performance reviews, cash flow adjustments, debt analysis, and inter-agency coordination to ensure accuracy and audit integrity of the outstanding reports.

Mr Yakubu then assured that the missing quarterly reports are being finalised and will be released in phases in the coming weeks, adding that reforms are underway to strengthen digital reporting systems and improve transparency and timeliness in fiscal data publication.

In his words, “Accordingly, the outstanding Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports are being finalised and will be released in phases over the coming weeks.

“In parallel, the Budget Office is strengthening its digital reporting architecture, data harmonisation systems, and institutional coordination mechanisms to support more comprehensive, timely, and analytically robust fiscal reporting in line with evolving international public finance reporting standards.”

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Economy

NGX Group Advances Investor Education Drive with Digital Retail Engagement Initiative

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NGX Group Shares

Nigerian Exchange Group has intensified its investor education drive through a digital engagement initiative aimed at improving financial literacy and deepening retail participation in the Nigerian capital market.

The Group recently hosted an X Space session themed Follow the Fundamentals: A Beginner’s Guide to the Stock Market, reaching over 5,000 users, largely young Nigerians, first-time investors, and retail market participants seeking to better understand investment opportunities in the capital market.

Featuring social media investment influencer Omiete Inko-Tariah, alongside representatives from Nigerian Exchange Limited and NGX Regulation Limited, the session demystified key concepts around market operations, investor protection, and safe participation. Beyond education, it served as an open forum where retail investors engaged directly with market stakeholders on issues of confidence, transparency, and accessibility.

Speaking on the initiative, Clifford Akpolo, Head, Group Communications and Partnerships at NGX Group, said: “Deepening retail participation is critical to building a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable capital market. At NGX Group, we believe financial literacy is not just an educational responsibility; it is a strategic imperative for strengthening investor confidence, improving market accessibility, and expanding long-term wealth creation opportunities for Nigerians. Through digital platforms like this, we are leveraging innovation to connect with the next generation of investors and democratize access to market knowledge.”

The initiative forms part of NGX Group’s broader sustainability agenda under its Community pillar, which focuses on advancing financial literacy, inclusion, and economic empowerment through education-driven and stakeholder-focused programmes.

Following the success of this edition, NGX Group plans to sustain similar engagements as part of its ongoing commitment to strengthening investor confidence, deepening retail participation, and building a more resilient and inclusive investment ecosystem.

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Economy

NGX Posts Turnover of 7.772 billion Equities Worth N374bn in Five Days

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VFD Group Lists NGX

By Dipo Olowookere

A total turnover of 7.772 billion equities worth N374.040 billion in 402,945 deals was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week compared with the 7.075 billion equities worth N324.351 billion traded in 474,436 deals a week earlier.

Data from the stock exchange showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.774 billion shares valued at N196.352 billion in 153,515 deals, contributing 61.43 per cent and 52.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The ICT segment followed with 1.118 billion stocks worth N57.825 billion in 44,622 deals, and the services sector transacted 601.745 million equities for N6.984 billion in 27,653 deals.

First Holdco, UBA, and Chams accounted for 2.195 billion shares worth N99.820 billion in 30,056 deals, contributing 28.24 per cent and 26.69 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

Berger Pains led the gainers’ chart after gaining 55.57 per cent to trade at N168.95, SCOA Nigeria improved by 45.92 per cent to N33.05, DAAR Communications expanded by 42.41 per cent to N2.25, Fidson rose by 32.52 per cent to N136.50, and Learn Africa grew by 32.32 per cent to N10.85.

On the flip side, Zichis led the losers’ table after it gave up 11.78 per cent to settle at N29.43, The Initiates declined by 10.03 per cent to N32.30, NPF Microfinance Bank depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N5.76, NCR Nigeria shed 10.00 per cent to quote at N179.10, and Custodian Investment crashed by 9.52 per cent to N81.25.

At the close of transactions in the five-day trading week, 74 equities appreciated versus 69 equities in the previous week, 24 stocks depreciated versus 36 stocks a week earlier, and 48 shares closed flat versus 41 shares of the preceding week.

Last week, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 2.27 per cent to finish at 250,330.92 points, and the market capitalisation chalked up 2.13 per cent to end at N160.444 trillion.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the energy, sovereign bond, and commodity indices, which fell by 1.19 per cent, 0.08 per cent and 0.80 per cent, respectively.

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