Economy
Fitch Returns Nigeria’s Outlook to Stable, Forecasts 2% GDP Growth
**Says Inflation to Remain at Double Digits through 2019
**Debt to Hits 292% of Revenue
**Buhari Expected to Continue Economic Programme if Re-elected
By Dipo Olowookere
The outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been reviewed upward to stable nearly six months after it was dropped to negative by Fitch Ratings.
In a statement dated November 2, 2018, the global rating agency said it also affirmed its rating on Nigeria at ‘B+’.
According to Fitch, the revision of the outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs reflects the ongoing economic recovery and decreasing external vulnerabilities, both supported by increased oil production and higher global oil prices.
It noted that despite setbacks, the Nigerian economy is continuing its slow recovery from the recession that ended in early 2017.
Fitch pointed out that non-oil growth has been supported by an increase in the supply of foreign exchange and will receive an additional boost as the government begins its delayed implementation of the 2018 capital budget.
“Political uncertainty ahead of the general election scheduled for February 2019 may lead to some weakening in growth, but we expect any disruption to be short-lived,” the statement obtained by Business Post said.
It added that the contribution of the oil sector has been positive in the first half of 2018 as oil production, including condensates, has averaged just below 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared with 1.9 mbpd in 2017.
Fitch said it expects average production of crude oil in Nigeria to remain around 2.1 mbpd through 2018 and 1H19.
Fitch is forecasting a GDP growth of 2 percent overall in 2018, increasing to 2.5 percent in 2019 and 3.3 percent in 2020, and the agency expects that Nigeria’s medium-term growth will average around 4 percent.
It noted that oil production will increase as new exploration and oil infrastructure projects begin to come online, but emphasised that Nigeria will struggle to raise production to the levels envisaged in the 2019-2021 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).
Fitch said high inflation has been a rating weakness, but CPI growth slowed to 11.3 percent year-on-year in September 2018, down from a recent peak of 18.7 percent in January 2017.
Inflation fell rapidly in 1Q18, but disinflation has slowed since, as base effects fade and conflicts between herders and farmers affect food supplies.
Fitch said it expects that annual average inflation will fall, but remain in the double digits through 2019.
“Despite falling inflation, Fitch expects that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will move towards tighter monetary policy to support FX rate stability,” the firm said.
The CBN has kept the monetary policy rate at 14 percent since May 2016, but has conducted monetary policy through its sales of Open Market Operation bills and by managing the reserve ratio.
Foreign currency availability has improved although Fitch believes that it remains a constraint on economic growth. The CBN continues to operate an FX regime with multiple windows and exchange rates, which will not change before the general elections. However, the wholesale interbank FX rate has depreciated, bringing it closer to the rate at the Investors and Exporters window.
Nigeria has increased its stock of international reserves to $44.6 billion (7.2 months of current external payments) as of September 2018, from $37.9 billion at end-2017.
The accumulation of reserves has been a function of both an increase in oil export receipts and an increase in inflow of foreign investments.
The rating agency said Nigeria’s external flows are exposed to global risk sentiments as well as to investor’s views on the country’s political and fiscal developments. However, the build-up of reserves provides a substantial external buffer.
“Nigeria’s ‘B+’ IDRs also reflect the country’s position as Africa’s largest economy and its well-developed domestic debt markets, balanced against low levels of domestic revenue mobilisation and of GDP per capita, a high level of hydrocarbon dependence, and low rankings on governance and business environment indicators.
“Nigeria continues to run persistent fiscal deficits at both the central and general government levels. Fitch forecasts a general government deficit of 4.3 percent of GDP in 2018, approximately the same as 2017.
“The government’s 2019-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a decrease in expenditure following three straight years of increasing capital expenditure. Lower expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, will help the general government fiscal deficit to narrow to 4 percent of GDP in 2019, but the government will continue to experience difficulty in raising non-oil domestic revenue.
“Oil revenue has increased since hitting bottom in 2016, but volatile production levels and inefficiencies within the petroleum sector have limited the transmission of higher oil prices to higher government revenue,” the statement said.
It added that Nigeria’s general government debt will rise to 292 percent of revenue, well above the historical ‘B’ median of 205 percent of revenue, reflecting the accumulation of new debt and the lack of progress on raising government revenue.
At 20 percent of general government revenue, interest payments are already more than twice the ‘B’ median. Federal government interest expenditure to federal government revenue stands much higher at just below 60 percent, the company stated.
“Fitch forecasts Nigeria’s current account (CA) surplus to widen to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2018 as oil export receipts have grown thanks to high oil prices. The CA surplus will narrow in subsequent years as import growth increases following several years of import compression related to tight foreign exchange supply. Nigeria is a net external creditor equivalent to 12 percent of GDP in 2018.
Fitch considers that the easing of foreign-currency liquidity has reduced risks regarding Nigerian banks’ ability to meet dollar liabilities and external debt repayments. However, economic headwinds have continued to affect asset quality.
“Average industry NPLs (according to CBN data) increased to 15 percent at end-2017, reflecting the lag affect from 2015. NPLs are concentrated in the oil and gas sector. The ongoing economic recovery, higher oil prices and widespread loan restructuring is likely to moderately help asset quality, but high NPLs will weigh on private sector credit provision.
“Credit to the private sector returned to modest positive growth in 2018 after tight domestic liquidity and crowding out from government borrowing led to a contraction of 5 percent through November 2017,” the firm said.
It was stressed that the outcome of the upcoming general elections remains uncertain. President Buhari will face a strong challenge from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who won the October 2018 primary to be the People’s Democratic Party candidate. Abubakar has made limited statements regarding his economic policy platform, but has criticised the current FX regime and has also signalled his support for devolving more control over public finances to the state governments.
“If Buhari is re-elected, we expect his government to continue implementing the economic programme outlined in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan released in March 2017.
“Fitch does not expect widespread disruption or instability around the election. However, a flare-up of violence in the Niger Delta around the elections presents downside risk to the fiscal, external and GDP growth forecasts,” the rating agency stated.
Economy
Budget Office Explains Reason for Quarterly Report Delay
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Budget Office of the Federation has defended the delay in publishing three outstanding Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports, saying the situation arose from the repeal and re-enactment of the 2025 Appropriation Act and the subsequent extension of the budget’s implementation period to June 2026.
The last publication on the budget office’s website is Q3 2025, a development that breaks the Fiscal Responsibility Act amid the country’s rising borrowing costs and mounting fiscal pressure.
In a clarification statement, the DG of the Budget Office, Mr Tanimu Yakubu, said public concerns over the absence of the reports must be understood within the constitutional and fiscal framework governing public finance administration in Nigeria, stressing that a fiscal year is not strictly tied to the January–December calendar, but is instead a legislative construct defined by appropriation laws passed by the National Assembly.
“The fiscal year is not necessarily synonymous with the calendar year. The calendar year is a fixed chronological construct of twelve months running from January to December.
“The fiscal year, however, is a juridical and legislative creation whose duration, commencement, and terminal date are determined by the extant appropriation framework enacted by law,” he said.
Mr Yakubu claimed that the recent reporting delay followed the Repeal and Re-enactment of the 2025 Appropriation Act concluded in December 2025, alongside an extension of the budget’s execution period.
These changes, he said, effectively altered the operational timeline for fiscal reporting and necessitated comprehensive reconciliations before publication of the affected quarterly reports.
“In substance and in law, therefore, the fiscal year becomes not merely a chronological concept, but a legislatively sustained expenditure window,” he explained.
The Budget Office further noted that Nigeria’s fiscal practice has historically accommodated adjustments such as supplementary budgets, rollover provisions, and implementation extensions, particularly for capital projects, to ensure continuity and prevent wastage of public resources.
It added that similar practices exist in other jurisdictions, where fiscal years are defined by law rather than fixed to the calendar year.
Citing constitutional provisions, the office referenced Sections 80 and 81 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), which require that public expenditure be backed by appropriation laws rather than a rigid annual cycle. It maintained that as long as legislative authority exists, expenditure remains valid within the approved framework.
The DG also pointed to judicial precedents underscoring the supremacy of the National Assembly in public finance matters, noting that executive spending must align with statutory approval.
He also explained that the current reconciliation process involves revenue performance reviews, cash flow adjustments, debt analysis, and inter-agency coordination to ensure accuracy and audit integrity of the outstanding reports.
Mr Yakubu then assured that the missing quarterly reports are being finalised and will be released in phases in the coming weeks, adding that reforms are underway to strengthen digital reporting systems and improve transparency and timeliness in fiscal data publication.
In his words, “Accordingly, the outstanding Quarterly Budget Implementation Reports are being finalised and will be released in phases over the coming weeks.
“In parallel, the Budget Office is strengthening its digital reporting architecture, data harmonisation systems, and institutional coordination mechanisms to support more comprehensive, timely, and analytically robust fiscal reporting in line with evolving international public finance reporting standards.”
Economy
NGX Group Advances Investor Education Drive with Digital Retail Engagement Initiative
Nigerian Exchange Group has intensified its investor education drive through a digital engagement initiative aimed at improving financial literacy and deepening retail participation in the Nigerian capital market.
The Group recently hosted an X Space session themed Follow the Fundamentals: A Beginner’s Guide to the Stock Market, reaching over 5,000 users, largely young Nigerians, first-time investors, and retail market participants seeking to better understand investment opportunities in the capital market.
Featuring social media investment influencer Omiete Inko-Tariah, alongside representatives from Nigerian Exchange Limited and NGX Regulation Limited, the session demystified key concepts around market operations, investor protection, and safe participation. Beyond education, it served as an open forum where retail investors engaged directly with market stakeholders on issues of confidence, transparency, and accessibility.
Speaking on the initiative, Clifford Akpolo, Head, Group Communications and Partnerships at NGX Group, said: “Deepening retail participation is critical to building a more resilient, inclusive, and sustainable capital market. At NGX Group, we believe financial literacy is not just an educational responsibility; it is a strategic imperative for strengthening investor confidence, improving market accessibility, and expanding long-term wealth creation opportunities for Nigerians. Through digital platforms like this, we are leveraging innovation to connect with the next generation of investors and democratize access to market knowledge.”
The initiative forms part of NGX Group’s broader sustainability agenda under its Community pillar, which focuses on advancing financial literacy, inclusion, and economic empowerment through education-driven and stakeholder-focused programmes.
Following the success of this edition, NGX Group plans to sustain similar engagements as part of its ongoing commitment to strengthening investor confidence, deepening retail participation, and building a more resilient and inclusive investment ecosystem.
Economy
NGX Posts Turnover of 7.772 billion Equities Worth N374bn in Five Days
By Dipo Olowookere
A total turnover of 7.772 billion equities worth N374.040 billion in 402,945 deals was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week compared with the 7.075 billion equities worth N324.351 billion traded in 474,436 deals a week earlier.
Data from the stock exchange showed that the financial services industry led the activity chart with 4.774 billion shares valued at N196.352 billion in 153,515 deals, contributing 61.43 per cent and 52.49 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The ICT segment followed with 1.118 billion stocks worth N57.825 billion in 44,622 deals, and the services sector transacted 601.745 million equities for N6.984 billion in 27,653 deals.
First Holdco, UBA, and Chams accounted for 2.195 billion shares worth N99.820 billion in 30,056 deals, contributing 28.24 per cent and 26.69 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Berger Pains led the gainers’ chart after gaining 55.57 per cent to trade at N168.95, SCOA Nigeria improved by 45.92 per cent to N33.05, DAAR Communications expanded by 42.41 per cent to N2.25, Fidson rose by 32.52 per cent to N136.50, and Learn Africa grew by 32.32 per cent to N10.85.
On the flip side, Zichis led the losers’ table after it gave up 11.78 per cent to settle at N29.43, The Initiates declined by 10.03 per cent to N32.30, NPF Microfinance Bank depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N5.76, NCR Nigeria shed 10.00 per cent to quote at N179.10, and Custodian Investment crashed by 9.52 per cent to N81.25.
At the close of transactions in the five-day trading week, 74 equities appreciated versus 69 equities in the previous week, 24 stocks depreciated versus 36 stocks a week earlier, and 48 shares closed flat versus 41 shares of the preceding week.
Last week, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 2.27 per cent to finish at 250,330.92 points, and the market capitalisation chalked up 2.13 per cent to end at N160.444 trillion.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher apart from the energy, sovereign bond, and commodity indices, which fell by 1.19 per cent, 0.08 per cent and 0.80 per cent, respectively.
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