Economy
How Forex, Tax Frustrated Nestlé Nigeria Plc in 2016

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The year 2016 would go down as an annus horribilis in the annals of Nestlé Nigeria Plc as the company posted its lowest EPS (-67% YoY to N10) in eight years even as the stock price declined to multi-year lows as noted by ARM Securities in its earlier report.
According to ARM Securities, as with the broader economy, Nestlé’s result was weighed down by fall-out from the 53 percent Naira depreciation which cascaded into N16.3 billion in FX losses over 2016.
In addition, the expiration of tax holidays on its Agbara factory drove a 44pps YoY jump in effective tax rate to 63 percent.
Accordingly, Nestlé reported a weighty decline in dividend per share of N10.00 (-67% YoY) which translates to a dividend yield of 1.3% using last trading price.
Going into 2017, the key risk for Nestlé remains the sizeable FX exposure on its books which comprises FCY loans to its parent and trade payables.
In addition, continued rise in domestic grain prices, which drove gross margin pressures in 2016, poses downsides to earnings.
As earlier stated by ARM Securities, Nestlé booked N16.3 billion in FX losses, housed under finance expenses, following Naira depreciation over 2016.
The FX losses stemmed from sizable Dollar borrowings, which rose 27 percent YoY to $152 million (92% of total debt).
Nestlé noted that an illiquid FX market compelled the company to acquire a one-year $40 million loan1 from its parent company (Nestlé S.A) to address working capital needs.
Furthermore, Dollar paucity forced Nestlé to seek extended credit terms from related parties (+182% YoY to N38.6 billion) which underpinned the jump in trade payables to record levels
(+76.4% YoY to N64.7 billion).
Over FY 16, Nestlé paid $15.1 million to related parties as part repayment on FCY loans owed while cash rose four times to multi-year highs of N51.4 billion presumably being stockpiled to acquire needed FX for loan repayments of N38.3 billion due in 2016 and 2017.
As earlier stated, higher effective taxes over 2016, following the expiration of pioneer tax holiday on its on Flowergate factory at Agbara, piled more pressure on earnings. The development drove a steeper contraction in post-tax earnings (-67% YoY) relative to pre-tax (-25% YoY).
In addition to FX and taxation issues, Nestlé struggled with rising input costs as elevated West African demand for Nigerian grains, a by-product of naira weakness underpinned an upswing in prices of key inputs YoY (CPO: +250%, sorghum: +150%, Maize: +108%).
To combat input cost inflation (COGS: +27% YoY), Nestlé implemented price increases of 30%-40% across its product portfolio (particularly Maggi and Milo which comprise ~75% of revenue) which translated into double digit growth in revenues (+20.3% YoY) largely buoyed by its food segment (+25.4% YoY).
Nonetheless, relative to the inflation in grain prices, the price hikes paled in comparison, which resulted in gross margin compression to four-year lows of 41 percent.
Going into 2017, as with most FMCGs, Nestlé guides to pushing through further price hikes to offset the inflationary pressures. That said, softer real income levels2 should result in subdued volume growth and as such we see topline growth pulling back from the 2016 heights. Specifically, we look for a 14.5 percent YoY increases in sales to N208.3 billion as we think Nestlé’s defensive product portfolio and relatively better pricing power should help weather the macro headwinds to consumer purchasing power.
In terms of input costs, we expect grain prices to remain elevated over H1 2017 due to higher regional demand for domestic grains (such as maize and sorghum) on the back of relative weakness of the Naira (NGN) vis-à-vis other West African currencies. However, towards H2 2017, we expect regional demand for local grains to moderate as improving FX liquidity drives naira appreciation at the parallel market and reduces bargaining power of local suppliers.
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng
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Economy
NASD Exchange Extends Bearish Run After 0.56% Drop
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south territory with a decline of 0.56 per cent on Wednesday, April 2.
This brought down the market capitalisation by N13 billion to N2.417 trillion from N2.430 trillion, and downed the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 22.57 points to 4,062.87 points from the previous session’s 4,062.87 points.
It was observed that the NASD exchange ended with three price gainers and three price losers during the trading day.
MRS Oil Plc depreciated by N19.00 to close at N171.00 per unit compared with the previous price of N190.00 per unit, NASD Plc lost N4.14 to trade at N37.36 per share compared with Wednesday’s N41.50 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc gave up N2.00 to sell at N78.00 per unit versus N80.00 per unit.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 19 Kobo to N93.00 per share from N92.81 per share, Food Concepts Plc expanded by 15 Kobo to N2.87 per unit from N2.72 per unit, and Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc improved by 2 Kobo to 52 Kobo per share from 50 Kobo per share.
Yesterday, the volume of securities dipped by 91.8 per cent to 260.2 million units from 3.2 billion units, the value of securities went down by 98.1 per cent to N154.2 million from N8.3 billion, while the number of deals soared by 53.3 per cent to 46 deals from 30 deals.
GNI Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 56.9 million units valued at N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.5 million units traded for N1.8 billion.
The most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was also GNI Plc with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.2 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units exchanged for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units transacted for N1.2 billion.
Economy
Naira Slips to N1,380/$1 at Official Market, Remains N1,405/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira dropped N2.09 or 0.15 per cent against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, April 2, to trade at N1,380.79/$1 compared with Wednesday’s rate of N1,378.70/$1.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N2.77 to quote at N1,824.86/£1 versus the N1,836.57/£1 it was traded at midweek, and improved its value against the Euro by N10.54 to N1,591.92/€1 from N1,602.46/€1.
Yesterday was the last trading session of the week for the local currency in the spot market, as the market will be closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter Holiday.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the greenback yesterday at N1,405/$1, but gained N8 at the GTBank FX counter to settle at N1,388/$1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,396/$1.
Pressure eased on the domestic currency as strong policy indicators have helped calm the majority of worries within the financial systems. Particularly in the remittance segment, the apex bank has directed all International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) to route remittance transactions through designated Naira settlement accounts in banks, a move aimed at boosting transparency and channelling more foreign exchange into the formal market.
This helps take off pressure from the foreign reserves, which have fallen below the $50 billion mark as they are gradually decreasing rather than falling sharply.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was bullish on Thursday, as macro sentiment shifted against recent optimism after reports that Iran is drafting a protocol with Oman to manage traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about disruptions to a key global oil route.
The remarks came after U.S. President Trump on Wednesday night vowed to hit Iran “extremely hard” in the coming weeks and that the Strait of Hormuz would “open naturally” once the war ends.
Cardano (ADA) chalked up 1.9 per cent to trade at $0.2435, Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 1.2 per cent to $0.0912, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 0.8 per cent to $2,066.37, Bitcoin (BTC) added 0.5 per cent to sell at $67,080.53, Solana (SOL) increased by 0.5 per cent to $79.91, and Ripple (XRP) jumped 0.2 per cent to $1.31.
Conversely, Binance Coin (BNB) dipped 0.7 per cent to $586.90, and TRON (TRX) depreciated by 0.3 per cent to $0.3147, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Bulls, Bears Share Customs Street’s Spoils Amid Bullish Investor Sentiment
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock market was relatively flat on Friday, as the bears and the bulls shared the spoils of war, though investor sentiment turned bullish compared with the preceding session’s bearish posture.
Data from the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited showed that the All-Share Index (ASI) was marginally down by 4.66 points as it ended at 201,698.89 points versus Wednesday’s 201,703.55 points, and the market capitalisation slightly contracted by N3 billion to N129.806 trillion from N129.809 trillion.
Customs Street was shut on Friday because of the public holidays declared by the federal government today and next Monday.
Business Post reports that John Holt declined by 9.91 per cent to N15.45, Abbey Mortgage Bank shed 9.60 per cent to trade at N8.95, International Energy Insurance slipped by 6.48 per cent to N3.32, Chams shrank by 5.30 per cent to N3.75, and Tantalizers depreciated by 5.18 per cent to N4.03.
On the flip side, Unilever Nigeria improved by 10.00 per cent to N103.40, Fortis Global Insurance gained 9.82 per cent to trade at N1.23, Multiverse appreciated 9.81 per cent to N20.15, Legend Internet advanced by 9.38 per cent to N6.30, and Zichis grew by 9.02 per cent to N14.14.
The market breadth index was positive during the trading session, as there were 35 appreciating stocks and 24 depreciating stocks.
Yesterday, investors traded 560.0 million equities valued at N19.3 billion in 49,676 deals, in contrast to the 815.5 million equities worth N33.3 billion transacted in 52,641 deals in the preceding day, representing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 31.33 per cent, 42.04 per cent, and 5.63 per cent, respectively.
Secure Electronic Technology dominated the activity log with 59.7 million shares valued at N61.1 million, Wema Bank exchanged 52.0 million equities worth N1.4 billion, VFD Group transacted 36.0 million stocks for N410.5 million, Access Holdings sold 35.3 million shares valued at N914.8 million, and Chams traded 31.0 million equities worth N115.0 million.
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