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How Forex, Tax Frustrated Nestlé Nigeria Plc in 2016

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The year 2016 would go down as an annus horribilis in the annals of Nestlé Nigeria Plc as the company posted its lowest EPS (-67% YoY to N10) in eight years even as the stock price declined to multi-year lows as noted by ARM Securities in its earlier report.

According to ARM Securities, as with the broader economy, Nestlé’s result was weighed down by fall-out from the 53 percent Naira depreciation which cascaded into N16.3 billion in FX losses over 2016.

In addition, the expiration of tax holidays on its Agbara factory drove a 44pps YoY jump in effective tax rate to 63 percent.

Accordingly, Nestlé reported a weighty decline in dividend per share of N10.00 (-67% YoY) which translates to a dividend yield of 1.3% using last trading price.

Going into 2017, the key risk for Nestlé remains the sizeable FX exposure on its books which comprises FCY loans to its parent and trade payables.

In addition, continued rise in domestic grain prices, which drove gross margin pressures in 2016, poses downsides to earnings.

As earlier stated by ARM Securities, Nestlé booked N16.3 billion in FX losses, housed under finance expenses, following Naira depreciation over 2016.

The FX losses stemmed from sizable Dollar borrowings, which rose 27 percent YoY to $152 million (92% of total debt).

Nestlé noted that an illiquid FX market compelled the company to acquire a one-year $40 million loan1 from its parent company (Nestlé S.A) to address working capital needs.

Furthermore, Dollar paucity forced Nestlé to seek extended credit terms from related parties (+182% YoY to N38.6 billion) which underpinned the jump in trade payables to record levels

(+76.4% YoY to N64.7 billion).

Over FY 16, Nestlé paid $15.1 million to related parties as part repayment on FCY loans owed while cash rose four times to multi-year highs of N51.4 billion presumably being stockpiled to acquire needed FX for loan repayments of N38.3 billion due in 2016 and 2017.

As earlier stated, higher effective taxes over 2016, following the expiration of pioneer tax holiday on its on Flowergate factory at Agbara, piled more pressure on earnings. The development drove a steeper contraction in post-tax earnings (-67% YoY) relative to pre-tax (-25% YoY).

In addition to FX and taxation issues, Nestlé struggled with rising input costs as elevated West African demand for Nigerian grains, a by-product of naira weakness underpinned an upswing in prices of key inputs YoY (CPO: +250%, sorghum: +150%, Maize: +108%).

To combat input cost inflation (COGS: +27% YoY), Nestlé implemented price increases of 30%-40% across its product portfolio (particularly Maggi and Milo which comprise ~75% of revenue) which translated into double digit growth in revenues (+20.3% YoY) largely buoyed by its food segment (+25.4% YoY).

Nonetheless, relative to the inflation in grain prices, the price hikes paled in comparison, which resulted in gross margin compression to four-year lows of 41 percent.

Going into 2017, as with most FMCGs, Nestlé guides to pushing through further price hikes to offset the inflationary pressures. That said, softer real income levels2 should result in subdued volume growth and as such we see topline growth pulling back from the 2016 heights. Specifically, we look for a 14.5 percent YoY increases in sales to N208.3 billion as we think Nestlé’s defensive product portfolio and relatively better pricing power should help weather the macro headwinds to consumer purchasing power.

In terms of input costs, we expect grain prices to remain elevated over H1 2017 due to higher regional demand for domestic grains (such as maize and sorghum) on the back of relative weakness of the Naira (NGN) vis-à-vis other West African currencies. However, towards H2 2017, we expect regional demand for local grains to moderate as improving FX liquidity drives naira appreciation at the parallel market and reduces bargaining power of local suppliers.

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng

“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Tariff Concerns Weaken Oil Prices

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell by over 1 per cent on Thursday as markets weighed macroeconomic concerns from the United States as well as other countries, with Brent futures losing $1.07 or 1.5 per cent to trade at $69.88 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declining by $1.13 or 1.7 per cent to $66.55 a barrel.

The market was depressed from risk that tariff wars between the US and other countries could hurt global demand.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump threatened to slap a 200 per cent tariff on wine, cognac and other alcohol imports from Europe, in addition to previous tariffs.

According to market analysts, this has opened a new front in a global trade war and has sent jitters to investors who are worried about stiffer trade barriers around the world’s largest consumer market.

This latest move is in response to the European Union’s plan to impose tariffs on American whiskey and other products next month, which itself is a reaction to Mr Trump’s 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum imports that took effect on Wednesday.

The American president has threatened to impose an array of trade penalties since returning to the White House in January, though he has postponed action on many of them.

Also, uncertainty stemming from a US proposal for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire also affected the market after Russian President Vladimir Putin said it agreed to stop fighting but any ceasefire should lead to a lasting peace and address root causes of the conflict.

The possibility of this could boost the availability of Russian oil.

Also on the supply front, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, with global demand now expected to rise by just 1.03 million barrels per day, off last month’s forecast by 70,000 barrels per day.

The report cited deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, including escalating trade tensions.

Meanwhile, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that the wider OPEC+ group which includes OPEC plus Russia and other allies, in February raised output by 363,000 barrels per day to 41.01 million barrels per day, led by Kazakhstan.

This comes as OPEC+ plans to phases out its most recent layer of output cuts beginning in April.

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Economy

NGX Index Rises 0.12% as Investor Sentiment Turns Bullish

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NGX All-Share Index

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rebounded by 0.12 per cent on Thursday on the back of a renewed bargain-hunting by investors.

The bourse closed higher during the session despite a 0.50 per cent loss suffered by the banking space due to profit-taking.

This was offset by the gains recorded by the others, especially the consumer goods index, which appreciated by 1.40 per cent at the close of business.

Further, the insurance counter improved by 0.62 per cent, and the energy sector gained 0.05 per cent, while the industrial goods and commodity indices closed flat.

When the closing gong was struck by 2:30 pm, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 130.56 points to 106,220.94 points from 106,090.38 points and the market capitalisation increased by N82 billion to N66.518 trillion from the N66.436 trillion reported a day earlier.

UPDC was the best-performing equity after chalking up 9.92 per cent to settle at N2.77, International Breweries gained 9.62 per cent to sell for N5.70, Royal Exchange expanded by 9.59 per cent to 80 Kobo, Multiverse rose by 8.81 per cent to N8.65, and NGX Group appreciated by 6.14 per cent to N32.85.

Conversely, University Press lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N4.32, Academy Press shed 9.66 per cent to trade at N2.62, Red Star Express weakened by 9.32 per cent to N5.35, Neimeth slumped by 8.33 per cent to N2.75, and C&I Leasing moderated by 4.75 per cent to N3.81.

Business Post reports that Customs Street ended with 36 price gainers and 20 price losers, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.

A total of 341.7 million shares valued at N16.7 billion exchanged hands in 11,233 deals yesterday versus the 1.5 billion shares worth N10.3 billion transacted a day earlier in 11,748 deals, showing a 64.14 per cent rise in the trading value, a 77.20 per cent decline in the trading volume, and a 4.38 per cent fall in the number of deals.

Tantalizers was the busiest with a turnover of 29.6 million stocks valued at N98.0 million, Access Holdings transacted 29.2 million equities for N693.3 million, Zenith Bank exchanged 28.7 million shares worth N1.4 billion, GTCO traded 26.7 million equities valued at N1.6 billion, and Universal Insurance sold 21.0 million shares worth N12.2 million.

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Economy

House of Reps Rejects 15% VAT Increase, Remains 7.5%

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VAT Revenue

By Adedapo Adesanya

On Thursday, the House of Representatives rejected changes to consumption and company taxes that President Bola Tinubu had proposed in the controversial tax bills as it adopted the Tax Reform Bill as a working document.

President Tinubu was seeking to double the value-added tax (VAT) rate to 15 per cent over six years to help fund the national budget and change how the revenue is distributed among the 36 states of the federation.

But the lower chamber of the National Assembly rejected the proposal, dealing a blow to his efforts to bolster government revenue and reduce borrowings.

The Speaker of the House of Reps, Mr Abbas Tajudeen, said after deliberations on clauses of the bill, it was adopted as a working document.

Mr Tajudeen, who commended the Committee on Finance for a work well done, said the report was a reflection of the mind of Nigerians.

“All the 36 states, including the Federal Capital Territory have their representatives in the sub-committee.

“This is the first time such a report is getting hundred per cent approval by almost all members,” he said.

On his part, the Chairman of the finance committee, Mr James Faleke, said that contentious areas were well taken care of, adding that the committee recommended that VAT should be based on consumption but explained that it still remains 7.5 per cent as it had been.

Mr Falake said the committee recommended a repeal of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) to establish the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS), but kicked against a proposal to lower the company tax rate to 25 per cent by next year, from 30 per cent currently.

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