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FSDH Urges MPC to Ease Monetary Policy to Stimulate Growth

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) prepares to hold its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2018 next week, one of the leading investment firms in the country, FSDH Research, has advised the committee to consider cutting its rates so as to “boost credit creation and stimulate economic growth.”

In a report released on Thursday, analysts at FSDH said they would expect the MPC to consider a drop in either the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which is currently at 14 percent, or the Cash Reserve Ration (CRR), presently at 22.50 percent.

The investment company noted that although the GDP growth rate in Nigeria improved further in Q4 2017 at 1.92 percent from 1.40 percent in Q3 2017, the recovery was still very fragile, emphasising that additional monetary policies were required to stimulate a broad-based growth.

“FSDH Research’s analysis of the growth pattern in 2017 shows that two sectors; agriculture and, mining and quarrying were the major drivers of growth. They were the two sectors out of the six largest sectors of the Nigerian economy that recorded growth in 2017. Other leading sectors which are trade, information and communication, manufacturing, and real estate all contracted. Thus, the need for monetary policy easing,” it said.

FSDH Research said looking at the developments in the international market; the economic outlook in the major advanced countries is strong in the short-term to medium-term, necessitating monetary policy normalisation.

It said the outlook of the GDP growth rate remains strong, the unemployment rate is low in most regions and should remain low in the short-term, while inflation rate is trending up.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States (U.S) Federal Reserve (The Fed) increased the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Rate) at its March 2018 meeting. The Fed increased the Fed Rate to 1.50 percent – 1.75 percent from 1.25 percent -1.50 percent.

“FSDH Research expects that the FOMC will increase the Fed Rate to 2.25 percent – 2.50 percent by year end. The increase in the interest rate should lead to increase in the yields on the fixed income securities in the advanced markets, with the attendant possible increase in capital flights from the emerging markets,” the report said.

According to FSDH, the increase in the crude oil price and favourable crude oil production in Nigeria have increased capital inflows and also led to favourable trade balance. Consequently, the country’s external reserves (30-Day Moving Average) increased substantially in the last five months, growing to $46.04 billion as at March 26, 2018.

It said this provides additional short-term stability for the value of Naira.

However, FSDH Research recognised the vulnerabilities of the Nigerian economy to the adverse movements in the crude oil prices. Thus the need to stimulate other non-oil sectors to reduce these vulnerabilities, it said.

Continuing, FSDH Research noted that the current strategies of the Debt Management Office (DMO) to reduce the interest expense on the debt of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) were working.

It pointed out that the latest debt figures show that the interest expense on the local debt has dropped in the last few months.

The investment firm also observed a relative increase in the revenue accrued to the FGN from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). These two factors have led to a drop in the ratio of the interest expense to the FGN FAAC revenue which stood at 20% in December 2017. Thus the yields on the fixed income securities in the market have dropped substantially in the last six months, it said.

Although FSDH Research said it believes the yields on the NTBs may drop further, it is of the view that the yields on the FGN Bonds may move up gradually from the current level as the FGN starts to borrow to fund the 2018 budget.

It said despite the drop in the yields on fixed income securities in Q4 2017, Nigeria recorded the highest Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) inflows in 2017 during the last quarter.

This, it explained, implies improving confidence on the short-term outlook of the Nigeria economy.

FSDH Research also noted that the growth in money supply as at December 2017 was lower than the CBN’s target for the year.

The broad money (M2) grew by 2.62 percent, lower than the target of 10.29 percent, while the net domestic credit contracted by 2.95 percent as against the target of 17.93 percent. The net credit to the private sector grew marginally by 1.40 percent, lower than the target of 14.88 percent.

It pointed out that the need to curb high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market were the main reasons for the contractionary monetary policy.

FSDH Research said it believes the inflation rate may drop to single digit mid-year, while the exchange rate should remain stable in the short-term.

“Therefore, there is a need for monetary policy easing to boost credit creation and stimulate economic growth,” it averred.

Concluding, FSDH Research said looking at the short-term outlook of the Nigerian economy, it believes the MPC should begin monetary policy easing to signal the end of its monetary policy tightening cycle.

The CBN will hold its first MPC meeting on Tuesday, April 3 and Wednesday, April 4, 2018.

At its last meeting in November 2017, the committee maintained the MPR at 14 percent, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR; and the CRR and Liquidity Ratio (LR) left at 22.50 percent and 30 percent respectively.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Geo-Fluids Seeks Approval to Raise Share Capital to N25bn

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Geo-Fluids

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the players in the hydrocarbon business in Nigeria, Geo-Fluids Plc, which trades its securities on the NASD OTC Securities Exchange, is planning to restructure its share capital with an increased of about 1,090 per cent.

Next Monday, the company will hold its Annual General Meeting (AGM) and one of the resolutions to be tabled to shareholders by the board is an authorisation for raising the share capital from N2.1 billion to N25.0 billion.

This is to be achieved by creating an additional 45,742,332,488 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, each ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the firm.

Funds from this action would be used to expand the business scope to include hydrocarbons, mining, and natural resource development.

“That the share capital of the company be and is hereby increased from N2,128,833,756 to N25,000,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 kobo each, each ranking pari passu in all respects with the existing ordinary shares of the company,” a part of the resolutions read.

In addition, Geo-Fluids wants approval, “To undertake the business of bitumen production and processing in all its forms, including but not limited to the exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, refining, treatment, blending, storage, packaging, distribution, marketing, importation, exportation, shipping, transportation, trading, and general supply of bitumen, its derivatives, by-products, and ancillary materials; and to carry on all other related or incidental undertakings, services, or operations that may be considered advantageous, beneficial, or necessary for the advancement, expansion, or diversification of the bitumen industry.”

Also, it wants the authority of shareholders, “To engage in the acquisition, development, and management of mining assets and concessions for the purpose of exploring, extracting, processing, and producing hydrocarbons, oil and gas, minerals, and other natural resources; and to develop, mine, and process coal, industrial minerals, and other raw materials required for industrial, commercial, energy, or infrastructural purposes, together with all related activities necessary to ensure the effective exploitation, utilisation, and commercialisation of such resources.”

Further, it wants, “To operate and participate in all segments of the oil and gas value chain, including but not limited to the exploration, prospecting, drilling, extraction, refining, processing, storage, blending, supply, marketing, distribution, importation, exportation, transportation, shipping, and trading of crude oil, refined petroleum products, petrochemicals, liquefied natural gas, compressed natural gas, and other related hydrocarbons and derivatives; and to establish, own, operate, or participate in facilities, ventures, or partnerships that advance the energy and petroleum sector.”

At the forthcoming meeting, the organisation wants its name changed from Geo-Fluids Plc to The Geo-Fluids Group Plc.

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Economy

PENGASSAN Kicks Against Full Privatisation of Refineries

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NNPC Port Harcourt refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has warned against the full privatisation of the country’s government-owned refineries.

Recall that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) is putting in place mechanisms to sell the moribund refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna.

However, this has met fresh resistance, with the President of PENGASSAN, Mr Festus Osifo, saying selling a 100 per cent stake would mean the government losing total control of the refineries, a situation he warned would be detrimental to Nigeria’s energy security.

Mr Osifo said the union was advocating the sale of about 51 per cent of the government’s stake while retaining 49 per cent, which he described as being more beneficial to Nigerians.

“PENGASSAN, even before the time of Comrade Peter Esele, had been advocating that government should sell its shares. The reason why we don’t want government to sell it 100 per cent to private investors is because of the issue bordering on energy security,” he said on Channels Television, late on Sunday.

“So, what we have advocated is what I have said earlier. If government sells 51 per cent stake in the refinery, what is going to happen? They will lose control, so that is actually selling. But for the benefit of Nigerians, retain 49 per cent of it.“

The PENGASSAN leader maintained that if the government had heeded the union’s advice in the past, the oil industry would be in a better state than it is today.

He addressed  concerns in some quarters over whether investors would be willing to buy stakes in government-owned refineries, insisting that there are investors who would be interested.

“Yes, there are investors who surely will be willing to buy a stake in the refinery because our population in Nigeria is quite huge, and those refineries, when well maintained without political pressures and political interference, will work,” he said.

However, Mr Osifo warned that even if the government decides to sell a 51 per cent stake, it must ensure that a complete valuation is carried out to avoid selling the refineries cheaply.

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Economy

SEC Gives Capital Market Operators Deadline to Renew Registration

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Capital Market Institute

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Capital market operators have been given a deadline by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for the renewal of their registration.

A statement from the regulator said CMOs have till Saturday, January 31, 2026, to renew their registration, and to make the process seamless, an electronic receipt and processing of applications would commence in the first quarter of 2026.

“These initiatives reflect our commitment to leveraging technology for faster, more transparent, and efficient regulatory processes.

“The commission is taking deliberate steps to make regulatory processes faster, more transparent, and technology-driven. We are investing in automation, database-supervision, and secure infrastructure to improve how we interact with the market,” the Director General of SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, was quoted as saying in the statement during an interview in Abuja over the weekend.

He noted that through the digital transformation portal, the organisation has automated registration and licensing end-to-end as operators can now submit applications, upload documents, and track approvals online, cutting down manual processing time and reducing the need for physical visits.

According to him, the agency has also rolled out the Commercial Paper issuance module, which allows operators to file documents, monitor progress, and receive approvals electronically while feedback from early users shows a clear improvement in turnaround time.

“Work is ongoing to automate quarterly and annual returns submissions, with structured templates and system checks to ensure accuracy. A returns analytics dashboard is also in development to support risk based supervision and exception reporting.

“To back these changes, we have started upgrading our IT infrastructure, servers, storage, networks, and security layers, to boost speed and reliability.

“Selective cloud migration is underway for platforms that need scalability and external access, while core internal systems remain on premisev5p for now as we assess security and cost implications.

“At the same time, we are strengthening data integrity and cybersecurity with vulnerability assessments and planned penetration testing once automation and migration phases are stable.

“These efforts show our commitment to building a modern, resilient regulatory environment that supports efficiency, investor confidence, and market stability,” he stated.

Mr Agama affirmed that the nation’s capital market was clearly on a path toward digital transformation adding that there is an urgent need for regulatory clarity on advanced technologies, targeted support for smaller firms, and capacity-building initiatives.

“A phased and proportionate approach to regulating emerging technologies such as AI is essential, complemented by internal readiness through supervisory technology tools.

“Furthermore, investor education, particularly among younger demographics, will be critical to future-proof participation and drive fintech adoption.

“Innovation is vital, but it must be accompanied by responsibility. As operators embrace automation, artificial intelligence, and data-driven tools, they bear a duty to ensure ethical, secure, and compliant deployment. Safeguarding investor data, preventing market abuse, and maintaining operational resilience are non-negotiable,” he declared.

The SEC DG said that ultimately, responsible technology adoption is about building trust, the cornerstone of our markets saying that trust thrives on fairness, transparency, accountability, and regulatory compliance.

He, therefore, urged operators to uphold these principles adding that it will not only protect investors and systemic stability but also strengthen the long-term credibility and competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.

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