Economy
FSDH Urges MPC to Ease Monetary Policy to Stimulate Growth
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) prepares to hold its first Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of 2018 next week, one of the leading investment firms in the country, FSDH Research, has advised the committee to consider cutting its rates so as to “boost credit creation and stimulate economic growth.”
In a report released on Thursday, analysts at FSDH said they would expect the MPC to consider a drop in either the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), which is currently at 14 percent, or the Cash Reserve Ration (CRR), presently at 22.50 percent.
The investment company noted that although the GDP growth rate in Nigeria improved further in Q4 2017 at 1.92 percent from 1.40 percent in Q3 2017, the recovery was still very fragile, emphasising that additional monetary policies were required to stimulate a broad-based growth.
“FSDH Research’s analysis of the growth pattern in 2017 shows that two sectors; agriculture and, mining and quarrying were the major drivers of growth. They were the two sectors out of the six largest sectors of the Nigerian economy that recorded growth in 2017. Other leading sectors which are trade, information and communication, manufacturing, and real estate all contracted. Thus, the need for monetary policy easing,” it said.
FSDH Research said looking at the developments in the international market; the economic outlook in the major advanced countries is strong in the short-term to medium-term, necessitating monetary policy normalisation.
It said the outlook of the GDP growth rate remains strong, the unemployment rate is low in most regions and should remain low in the short-term, while inflation rate is trending up.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the United States (U.S) Federal Reserve (The Fed) increased the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Rate) at its March 2018 meeting. The Fed increased the Fed Rate to 1.50 percent – 1.75 percent from 1.25 percent -1.50 percent.
“FSDH Research expects that the FOMC will increase the Fed Rate to 2.25 percent – 2.50 percent by year end. The increase in the interest rate should lead to increase in the yields on the fixed income securities in the advanced markets, with the attendant possible increase in capital flights from the emerging markets,” the report said.
According to FSDH, the increase in the crude oil price and favourable crude oil production in Nigeria have increased capital inflows and also led to favourable trade balance. Consequently, the country’s external reserves (30-Day Moving Average) increased substantially in the last five months, growing to $46.04 billion as at March 26, 2018.
It said this provides additional short-term stability for the value of Naira.
However, FSDH Research recognised the vulnerabilities of the Nigerian economy to the adverse movements in the crude oil prices. Thus the need to stimulate other non-oil sectors to reduce these vulnerabilities, it said.
Continuing, FSDH Research noted that the current strategies of the Debt Management Office (DMO) to reduce the interest expense on the debt of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) were working.
It pointed out that the latest debt figures show that the interest expense on the local debt has dropped in the last few months.
The investment firm also observed a relative increase in the revenue accrued to the FGN from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC). These two factors have led to a drop in the ratio of the interest expense to the FGN FAAC revenue which stood at 20% in December 2017. Thus the yields on the fixed income securities in the market have dropped substantially in the last six months, it said.
Although FSDH Research said it believes the yields on the NTBs may drop further, it is of the view that the yields on the FGN Bonds may move up gradually from the current level as the FGN starts to borrow to fund the 2018 budget.
It said despite the drop in the yields on fixed income securities in Q4 2017, Nigeria recorded the highest Foreign Portfolio Investments (FPIs) inflows in 2017 during the last quarter.
This, it explained, implies improving confidence on the short-term outlook of the Nigeria economy.
FSDH Research also noted that the growth in money supply as at December 2017 was lower than the CBN’s target for the year.
The broad money (M2) grew by 2.62 percent, lower than the target of 10.29 percent, while the net domestic credit contracted by 2.95 percent as against the target of 17.93 percent. The net credit to the private sector grew marginally by 1.40 percent, lower than the target of 14.88 percent.
It pointed out that the need to curb high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market were the main reasons for the contractionary monetary policy.
FSDH Research said it believes the inflation rate may drop to single digit mid-year, while the exchange rate should remain stable in the short-term.
“Therefore, there is a need for monetary policy easing to boost credit creation and stimulate economic growth,” it averred.
Concluding, FSDH Research said looking at the short-term outlook of the Nigerian economy, it believes the MPC should begin monetary policy easing to signal the end of its monetary policy tightening cycle.
The CBN will hold its first MPC meeting on Tuesday, April 3 and Wednesday, April 4, 2018.
At its last meeting in November 2017, the committee maintained the MPR at 14 percent, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR; and the CRR and Liquidity Ratio (LR) left at 22.50 percent and 30 percent respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) will, at the Commercial Bid Conference, announce the successful bidders for 50 oil and gas blocks in the 2025 Licensing Round on July 21, 2026.
The regulator said the conference would conclude an eight-month licence round that began on December 1, 2025, after President Bola Tinubu approved the exercise under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
The commission said the 50 blocks include 15 onshore, 19 shallow-water, 15 frontier and one deep-offshore block, covering basins such as the Niger Delta, Chad Basin, Benue Trough, Anambra and Bida.
It said the round aims to attract about $10 billion in fresh investment and to unlock discovered but undeveloped fields, fallow assets and gas resources. NUPRC described the 2025 round as the third licensing exercise under the PIA framework and stressed it is designed to prioritise natural gas development.
NUPRC outlined a five-stage process for the round — registration and pre-qualification, data acquisition, technical bid submission and evaluation, and the commercial bid conference — followed by ministerial approval and contracting. The Commission said it notified pre-qualified applicants on March 16, 2026, and closed technical and commercial bids on June 12, 2026.
NUPRC chief executive, Mrs Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, had said the selection would be merit-based and would exclude weaker applicants.
She said only candidates with strong technical and financial credentials, professionalism and credible development plans would advance, and that winners would be chosen on a weighted combination of technical and commercial scores.
To widen participation, the federal government fixed signature bonuses for the round in a prescribed range of $3 million to $7 million per block, the Commission said, adding that bids outside that range would be non-compliant and excluded.
NUPRC said it would resolve the tied highest bids within the range by conducting a sealed rebid for the signature bonus, adding that successful bidders will receive Petroleum Prospecting Licences (PPLs) and may elect either a Concession or a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) framework, noting that the choice of framework will determine fiscal terms for up to two decades.
The agency noted that bidders were required to present host community development plans and to commit to remit 3 per cent of operating expenditure to Host Community Development Trusts. It said decarbonisation objectives and broader environmental, social and governance (ESG) requirements were mandatory parts of submissions.
It warned that applicants with government debts, those that had previously failed to develop licences “vigorously and in a business-like manner,” or those found non-compliant with applicable laws could be disqualified at any stage.
The regulator said it expects ministerial approval and formal contracting between July and October 2026, after which awardees must execute concession contracts before licences take legal effect.
Recall that during the 25th Nigeria Oil and Gas (NOG) Energy Week in Abuja, the NUPRC issued PPLs to 12 companies across 19 blocks from the 2024 round. The Commission named recipients, including Boron Energy Limited, Energy Marketing and Supply Limited, Sahara Deepwater Resources Limited, Tulkan Energy E&P Company Limited and said that the exercise showed the licensing pipeline was functioning.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Mrs Olu Verheijen, has said Nigeria requires about $38.3 billion in fresh investment to sustain current oil and gas production and achieve its 2030 output targets.
Speaking at the recently concluded 25th NOG Energy Week Conference and Exhibition in Abuja, Mrs Verheijen said global investors are now prioritising countries with predictable policies, competitive fiscal terms and credible regulatory systems.
“For Africa, that question is urgent. And for Nigeria, the scale of the task is equally clear: to sustain the current base and grow toward our 2030 production target, analysis shows a financing gap of about $38.3 billion,” she said.
According to her, the era when countries relied solely on resource endowment to attract capital has ended.
“Capital has no passport. It is rational. It prices risk. It follows credibility. It asks one question: can this country turn resources into bankable projects, and bankable projects into reliable returns?”
She said Nigeria had deliberately repositioned itself through reforms aimed at improving investor confidence and accelerating project execution.
“We recalibrated fiscal terms, clarified regulation and streamlined oversight. We introduced targeted incentives and cut contracting timelines by more than half. We made a clear statement to the world: Nigeria is no longer asking to be trusted; Nigeria is working to be bankable.”
Highlighting progress recorded under the reforms, Verheijen said Nigeria now has more than $50 billion worth of upstream projects in its visible investment pipeline.
“We now have more than 50 billion dollars of upstream projects in the visible pipeline. In the last three years, more than 10 billion dollars of long-awaited final investment decisions have come through.”
She added that crude oil and condensate production has increased by about 400,000 barrels per day since 2023, while onshore production is at its highest level in two decades.
“Crude oil and condensate production has risen by about 400,000 barrels per day since 2023. Onshore production is at its strongest level in twenty years.”
Mrs Verheijen said the Federal Government remains committed to achieving its target of producing three million barrels of oil per day and 10 billion standard cubic feet of gas daily by 2030, while strengthening Nigeria’s competitiveness in the global energy market.
She also highlighted ongoing reforms in the power sector, including the N4 trillion Presidential Power Sector Financial Reforms Programme, which she described as critical to restoring confidence across Nigeria’s electricity value chain.
On gas development, she said the government was expanding domestic LPG supply, improving affordability and supporting investments through tax and import duty incentives.
“A gas-rich nation cannot be comfortable when families are priced back to firewood, charcoal or kerosene,” she said.
Mrs Verheijen stressed that Nigeria’s ambition extends beyond exporting crude oil to building an industrial economy anchored on value addition.
“We have chosen not merely to produce molecules, but to convert molecules into megawatts, fertiliser, petrochemicals, mobility, manufacturing, jobs and exports.”
She concluded that the country’s reforms were laying the foundation for long-term growth despite lingering challenges.
“The age of Nigerian hesitation is ending. The age of Nigerian ambition has begun. Our task now is to turn reform into relief, capital into projects, projects into jobs, and energy into national greatness.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in June 2026 moderated to 15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, as pressure from the Iran war mildly eased, though it largely remained in focus during the review month.
In the report on Wednesday, the statistical office showed that the headline inflation rate for June on a month-on-month basis was 1.66 per cent, 0.09 per cent lower than the 1.75 per cent recorded in May 2026.
On an annualised basis, the print was down from 25.29 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025). This was due to the rebasing of the calculation year from 2009 to 2024.
The rise in prices, which stemmed from the continued conflict in the Middle East, continued to stoke food prices and energy costs, which account for a huge chunk of average spending.
The food inflation rate in May 2026 on a month-on-month basis was 3.75 per cent, up by 0.77 percentage points from May 2026 (2.98 per cent), while on a year-on-year basis, it was 17.52 per cent and stood at 25.41 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025).
At 15.91 per cent print, the inflation marginally beat expectations by Meristem Research, predicted at 15.95 per cent.
There had been expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran would help drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front. However, with conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
This will be a core factor that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be looking at when it meets for the next policy meeting. At its last meeting, the committee left benchmarked interest rates at 26.5 per cent.
