Economy
GlobalData Forecasts 2.7% Growth for Nigeria’s Economy in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
GlobalData, an analytics company, has revealed that Nigeria’s real GDP growth should grow by 2.7 per cent in 2023.
This is a slowdown in economic growth compared to 3 per cent in 2022, its report titled Macroeconomic Outlook Report: Nigeria revealed.
The report showed that the continued decline in oil production, insecurity ahead of the 2023 general elections, and high inflationary pressure remain the major areas of concern for Nigeria, adding that the broadening inflationary pressure had triggered a cost-of-living crisis.
“Inflation rate is projected to further rise to 19.2 per cent in 2023 from 19.1 per cent in 2022. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, Multidimensional Poverty Index Survey (2022), as of 17 November 2022, 133 million people, equivalent to 63 per cent of the nation’s population, were experiencing multidimensional poverty in the country,” it stated.
According to GlobalData, agriculture, industry and services sectors, the three sectors are forecast to grow by 12.2 per cent, 14 per cent, and 12.2 per cent in 2023, compared to 13 per cent, 14.9 per cent, and 12.9 per cent.
This is in comparison to 23.6 per cent, 32.2 per cent and 44.2 per cent, respectively, that the sectors contributed to the gross values added (GVA) in 2022.
In October 2022, the country allocated a budget of N20.5 trillion ($51.5 billion) for the 2023 fiscal year, of which more than 60 per cent will be used to finance debt repayments. The report said this would curtail the expenditure on other developmental sectors.
GlobalData estimates the exchange rate to depreciate to N420.60/$ in 2023 from N415.30/$ in 2022, adding that Nigeria’s foreign exchange (forex) remained depressed amid the dwindling crude oil production and lower export revenue.
Speaking on this, Mr Puja Tiwari, Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Nigeria’s oil output rose to 1.4 billion barrels per day (bpd) in December 2022 from below one bpd in August 2022, according to Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
“However, it is significantly below what it was last decade ago (above two million bpd). Oil theft and prolonged repair work at Forcados, a key oil terminal which is expected to continue till September 2023, will result in Nigeria’s underproduction of crude oil in 2023.
“Meanwhile, the violent attacks on the election commission offices raise questions on the security in the country ahead of elections.”
“Introducing measures to reduce poverty as well as monetary measures to curb the mounting prices continue to be the need of the hour for the Nigerian economy. Moreover, the government also needs to work towards policies to control rising gross debt, depreciating currency, and increasing unemployment to reactivate the economy,” he said.
By Dipo Olowookere
On the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week, 3.588 billion shares valued at N195.313 billion exchanged hands in 254,553 deals, higher than the 3.361 billion shares worth N151.948 billion traded in 229,442 deals a week earlier.
Over a quarter of these transactions were centred around the trio of Sterling Holdco, Access Holdings, and Zenith Bank, which specifically accounted for 1.038 billion stocks worth N46.081 billion in 33,067 deals, contributing 28.92 per cent and 23.59 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.
They helped the financial equities to lead the activity chart with 2.498 billion units sold for N94.005 billion in 111,052 deals, contributing 69.62 per cent and 48.13 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Services stocks traded 329.034 million units valued at N3.452 billion in 14,050 deals, and energy shares transacted 152.472million units worth N42.511 billion in 19,022 deals.
In the week, 61 equities appreciated versus 25 equities in the previous week, as 36 stocks depreciated compared with 54 stocks of the preceding week, while 49 shares remained unchanged, in contrast to 67 shares of the previous trading week.
Trans-Nationwide Express gained 60.48 per cent to sell for N6.05, Ecobank appreciated by 46.30 per cent to N67.30, Stanbic IBTC rose by 36.63 per cent to N188.55, Royal Exchange improved by 29.37 per cent to N1,85, and Aradel grew by 28.93 per cent to N1,649.00.
On the flip side, Coronation Insurance lost 14.38 per cent to close at N2.50, Ikeja Hotel declined by 14.36 per cent to N33.40, International Energy Insurance shrank by 13.80 per cent to N3.06, Academy Press slumped by 12.57 per cent to N7.65, and Honeywell Flour crumbled by 11.01 per cent to N19.00.
Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 6.57 per cent to 217,167.57 points, and the market capitalisation advanced by 6.60 per cent to N139.827 trillion, as the demand for Nigerian stocks soared.
Also, all other indices finished higher apart from the insurance and growth indices, which fell by 0.04 per cent and 0.99 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira sold at N1,343.64/$1 Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, April 17, after shedding N1.34 or 0.10 per cent against the greenback from the previous day’s rate of N1,342.30/$1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window during the session by N5.03 to quote at N1,824.39/£1 versus the previous rate of N1,819.36/£1, and lost N10.05 against the Euro to sell at N1,591.14/€1 versus N1,581.09/€1.
At the GTBank FX desk, the exchange rate of the Naira to the Dollar remained unchanged at N1,355/$1, and it also maintained stability in the parallel market at N1,375/$1.
Interbank liquidity increased to N124.34 million from N74.255 million the previous day, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed.
Meanwhile, external reserves remain at $48.70 billion, down from the 2009 peak of $50 billion amidst uncertainties in the global commodities market.
Global oil prices dropped sharply on Friday after Iran signalled that the Strait of Hormuz would remain open to commercial shipping during a temporary ceasefire in the Middle East.
Crypt assets also gained on the news from Iran’s foreign minister, who declared the Strait of Hormuz open, drawing a positive response from President Donald Trump. The development helped ease worry around risky assets like crypto.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was bullish, as traders weighed possible scenarios ahead of next week’s US-Iran cease-fire deadline.
Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 3.2 per cent to $2,410.53, Bitcoin (BTC) jumped by 2.8 per cent to $77,124.22, Ripple (XRP) rose by 2.7 per cent to $1.47, Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 2.5 per cent to $643.97, Dogecoin (DOGE) added 1.0 per cent to close at $0.0988, Cardano (ADA) improved by 0.9 per cent to $0.2578, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.4 per cent to $88.53, and TRON (TRX) gained 0.4 per cent to sell at $0.3275, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices plunged by 9 per cent on Friday after Iran said passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz was open for the remaining ceasefire period.
Brent crude futures lost $9.01 or 9.07 per cent to trade at $90.38 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by $10.48 or 11.45 per cent to finish at $83.85 a barrel.
Iran said Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for the remainder of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, bolstering hopes of a breakthrough in the weeks-long crisis over the crucial oil route.
Iran had maintained its blockade of the strait despite a two-week ceasefire with the US, which expires on Tuesday, and previously said it would not open the key waterway while Israel continued to strike Lebanon.
Business Post had reported that oil prices weakened to around $88 per barrel after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted on X that “all commercial vessels” would be allowed to pass through the strait throughout the remainder of the ten-day ceasefire in Lebanon.
US President Donald Trump thanked Iran on Truth Social, but stressed that the US naval blockade of the regime’s ports would remain “in full force and effect” until a peace deal was completed. “This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated,” he added.
A second round of truce talks between the US and Iran is expected to take place as oil tankers are beginning to test the waters at the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the fact that all ships can sail through the Strait of Hormuz, this passage needs to be coordinated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Market analysts noted that if these initial tankers make it through, flows will begin to partially normalise. However, a handful of vessels does not equal restored capacity. The backlog alone will take significant time to clear, and producers across the region are still dealing with disrupted output and logistics.
Prices had already fallen earlier in the Friday session as possible further talks between the US and Iran over the weekend and a 10-day ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel raised investors’ hopes that the war in the Middle East could be nearing an end.
The American President also said on Friday that the US has banned Israel from further bombing in Lebanon, using a harsher tone than usual with the longtime US ally.
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