Economy
Hedging Against Inflation Amidst Economic Uncertainty
Rising global inflation has been the dominant macroeconomic conversation in 2022, significantly influencing investment decisions. The pressures on global inflation have largely been exacerbated by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war—and associated sanctions—which have pushed energy and commodity prices to multi-year highs.
In Nigeria, inflation reached a 15-year height of 20.5% in August 2022, reflecting a passthrough from global inflation dynamics and worsening domestic insecurity. Specifically, there have been considerable pressures on food and energy prices. For instance, prices of food items such as vegetable oil, bread and imported rice have risen 21.0% on average in the past year. Likewise, diesel prices have tripled, while gas prices have doubled over the same period. These pressures have strained consumer wallets, increased the cost of living, and invariably pushed more Nigerians below the poverty line.
Another implication of inflation is the erosion of the value of investments. The latest inflation figure suggests that to maintain the value of one’s investment, one would need to earn a return over 20.0%. Although recent interest rate increases by the monetary authorities have helped cushion this inflationary impact, there appears to be an obvious gap to fill to maintain the value of wealth. This concern is further complicated by the consensus expectation for inflation to climb higher in subsequent months.
To manage the impact of inflation on investments, several leading financial institutions like CardinalStone Securities—the trading firm responsible for executing the Titan Trust Bank and Union Bank of Nigeria Plc deal, the largest trade in Nigeria’s capital market history—often advise and assist investors.
Speaking to this, Elile Olutimayin, Managing Director, CardinalStone Securities, believes that increasing exposure to stocks could be one way to add inflation protection to one’s portfolio over time. This is because companies with pricing power can adjust their prices in response to inflation, thus preserving their fundamental value.
Furthermore, she suggests diversifying one’s portfolio to include asset classes which mostly correlate positively with inflation, such as commodities and real estate. For context, with current global inflation largely driven by higher commodity prices, commodity exposures can provide a necessary hedge to investors. Likewise, rentals and lease income tend to increase as inflation rises, as does the value of the real estate properties.
A third consideration, according to Elile, is the need to maintain a long-term view, as it is widely acknowledged that investors have a greater chance of beating inflation over longer horizons. For context, instruments like stocks tend to be more volatile over the short term, increasing their riskiness. Likewise, the relative illiquidity of real estate investments makes a long-term position more appropriate.
In conclusion, wealth management often requires professional guidance from industry practitioners like CardinalStone. The firm offers an array of financial solutions that cut across asset management, securities trading, alternative investments, investment banking, and much more, making them well positioned to support potential and existing clients on their investment journey.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in June 2026 moderated to 15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, as pressure from the Iran war mildly eased, though it largely remained in focus during the review month.
In the report on Wednesday, the statistical office showed that the headline inflation rate for June on a month-on-month basis was 1.66 per cent, 0.09 per cent lower than the 1.75 per cent recorded in May 2026.
On an annualised basis, the print was down from 25.29 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025). This was due to the rebasing of the calculation year from 2009 to 2024.
The rise in prices, which stemmed from the continued conflict in the Middle East, continued to stoke food prices and energy costs, which account for a huge chunk of average spending.
The food inflation rate in May 2026 on a month-on-month basis was 3.75 per cent, up by 0.77 percentage points from May 2026 (2.98 per cent), while on a year-on-year basis, it was 17.52 per cent and stood at 25.41 per cent in the same month of the preceding year (June 2025).
At 15.91 per cent print, the inflation marginally beat expectations by Meristem Research, predicted at 15.95 per cent.
There had been expectations that the ceasefire between the United States and Iran would help drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front. However, with conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
This will be a core factor that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will be looking at when it meets for the next policy meeting. At its last meeting, the committee left benchmarked interest rates at 26.5 per cent.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.
The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.
She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.
According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.
“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.
Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.
She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.
The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.
She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.
Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.
“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Meristem Research have predicted that the inflation rate for June 2026 in Nigeria should marginally rise to 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.93 per cent reported in May 2026.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today, Wednesday, July 15, 2026.
In its report sighted by Business Post, Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.
It disclosed that this marks a sharp reversal from most of June, when the ceasefire between the two countries helped drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front.
With conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.
“Nonetheless, some relief is likely from the food segment, where robust supply conditions across major producing regions and softening demand should continue to ease food price pressures,” it stated.
The team also explained that it projected a 15.95 per cent inflation rate because of the lingering effects of persistent food price pressures.
“However, we expect core inflation to moderate as the sharp reversal in energy prices begins to filter through to transportation, distribution, and other energy-related costs, easing underlying price pressures.
“On a month-on-month basis, the combined effect of lower petrol prices, a relatively stable Naira, and the gradual pass-through of reduced energy costs across the supply chain should exert further downward pressure on inflation.
“Based on our assessment, food inflation is expected to remain the key swing factor, as seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints are likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs,” it said.
