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Economy

High Imports in Q1 2021 Leave Nigeria With N3.9trn Trade Deficit

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trade deficit trade balance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A significant increase in the value of imports in the first quarter of 2021 has left Nigeria with a trade deficit of N3.9 trillion.

A report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that in the period under review, the country recorded a total merchandise trade of N9.8 trillion, 6.99% higher than the value recorded in Q4 of 2020 and 14.13 per cent higher than the figures in the same period of 2020.

The agency stated that the export component of this trade was N2.9 trillion, representing 29.79 per cent of the total trade, while the import aspect took N6.9 trillion, representing 70.21 per cent.

“The higher level of imports over exports resulted in a trade deficit (in goods) of  N3.9 trillion,” the stats office said in its report.

It was further disclosed that crude oil export accounted for N1.9 trillion in Q1 of 2021, representing 66.38 per cent of the total export, while non–crude oil export accounted for 33.62 per cent of the total export.

According to the NBS, the value of total imports rose by 15.61 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020 and 54.30 per cent compared to Q1 2020.

The value of imported agricultural products stood at 18.37 per cent higher than in Q4 2020 and 140.47 per cent higher year-on-year, while the value of raw material imports fell by 6.50 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020 but increased by 109.29 per cent compared to Q1, 2020.

Also, the value of solid minerals imports was 36.97 per cent higher in Q1 2021 than in Q4 2020 and 59.26 per cent more than its value in Q1 2020, while the value of energy goods imports was 34.39 per cent in Q1 2021, higher than in Q4 2020 and 1,346.72 per cent higher than the value recorded in Q1 2020.

In addition, the value of imported manufactured goods grew by 18.47 per cent in Q1 2021 against the value recorded in Q4 2020 and 69.70 per cent against its value in Q1 2020, while the value of other oil products imported in Q1 2021 was 19.02 per cent more than its value in Q4 2020 but 15.76 per cent less than the corresponding quarter of 2020.

The major import trading partners of Nigeria in the period were China, accounting for 29.34 per cent, the Netherlands with 10.60 per cent, the United States with 8.88 per cent, India with 8.60 per cent and Belgium with 3.48 per cent.

On the exports side, the total value decreased by 8.99 per cent against the level recorded in Q4 2020 and 29.26 per cent compared to Q1,2020.

It was disclosed that the value of agricultural exports increased by 128.0 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020 and 0.1 per cent compared to Q1 2020, while the value of raw material goods exports in Q1 2021 was 9.0 per cent lower than the value in Q4 2020 and 6.7 per cent lower than the value recorded in Q1 2020, with the value of solid minerals exports increasing by 107.2 per cent in Q1 2021 against Q4 2020 and 481.7 per cent against the corresponding quarter in 2020.

Also, the exports of energy goods increased in value by 16.3 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020 and 18.1 per cent compared to Q1 2020, while the value of manufactured goods exports rose by 94.0 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020 but decreased by 43.7 per cent compared to Q1 2020.

The agency further said the value of crude oil exports in Q1 2021 decreased by 23.5 per cent compared to Q4 2020 and 34.5 per cent compared to Q1 2020, while the export value of other oil products increased by 25.5 per cent in Q1 2021 compared to Q4 2020, and rose marginally 0.1 per cent compared to Q1 2020.

Business Post observed that the major export trading partners of the country in the first three months of the year were India at 16.79 per cent, Spain at 9.88 per cent, China at 6.54 per cent, The Netherlands at 5.50 per cent and France at 4.59 per cent.

Aduragbemi Omiyale is a journalist with Business Post Nigeria, who has passion for news writing. In her leisure time, she loves to read.

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Economy

PenCom Assures Strong Risk Controls for PFA Investments in Custodians’ Parent Companies

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PenCom

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has defended its decision to allow Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs) to invest in the parent companies of their custodians, insisting that adequate safeguards are in place to protect contributors’ funds.

The director-general of the pension regulator, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, speaking on Tuesday during the Meet the Press Briefing at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, said the commission’s decision to relax the investment restriction followed a comprehensive risk assessment that found minimal conflict of interest.

She explained that under PenCom’s investment regulations, PFAs are only permitted to invest pension assets in carefully selected instruments that meet stringent criteria, including profitability, strong credit ratings and proven track records.

According to her, the commission regularly reviews its investment regulations, conducts routine examinations and spot checks on PFAs to ensure strict compliance with established risk management guidelines.

“PFAs cannot just go into the stock market and buy any kind of stock. There are strict guidelines. Companies must demonstrate profitability, have a proven track record and satisfy other criteria before pension funds can invest,” she said.

Ms Oloworaran noted that each PFA also operates under the oversight of a board, an investment committee and a risk management committee, providing additional layers of governance to safeguard contributors’ funds.

She said PenCom recently issued a circular allowing PFAs to invest in the parent companies of their custodians after determining that the potential conflict of interest was negligible.

The PenCom boss explained that the parent companies involved are largely Tier-1 banks, including First Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and Zenith Bank, which she described as A-rated institutions with strong financial foundations.

She said the policy was intended to widen investment opportunities for pension funds without compromising safety.

Using Stanbic IBTC as an example, Ms Oloworaran explained that if its custodian is Zenith Bank, the previous restriction prevented the pension administrator from investing in Zenith Bank shares despite the bank’s strong performance.

“We reviewed the risks and any potential conflict of interest and found the risks to be very low. That is why we opened that investment window,” she said.

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Economy

Meristem Forecasts 15.95% Inflation Rate for June 2026

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inflation rate

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Analysts at Meristem Research have predicted that the inflation rate for June 2026 in Nigeria should marginally rise to 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis from the 15.93 per cent reported in May 2026.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release inflation numbers for last month later today, Wednesday, July 15, 2026.

In its report sighted by Business Post, Meristem Research said it expects inflationary pressures to re-emerge across key economies in the near term, as the re-escalation of the US-Iran conflict has reignited upward pressure on global oil prices.

It disclosed that this marks a sharp reversal from most of June, when the ceasefire between the two countries helped drive oil prices lower, raising expectations of some relief on the inflation front.

With conflicts now flaring up again, oil prices are likely to increase again, and the anticipated easing in energy-driven inflation may not materialise as broadly as earlier envisaged.

“Nonetheless, some relief is likely from the food segment, where robust supply conditions across major producing regions and softening demand should continue to ease food price pressures,” it stated.

The team also explained that it projected a 15.95 per cent inflation rate because of the lingering effects of persistent food price pressures.

“However, we expect core inflation to moderate as the sharp reversal in energy prices begins to filter through to transportation, distribution, and other energy-related costs, easing underlying price pressures.

“On a month-on-month basis, the combined effect of lower petrol prices, a relatively stable Naira, and the gradual pass-through of reduced energy costs across the supply chain should exert further downward pressure on inflation.

“Based on our assessment, food inflation is expected to remain the key swing factor, as seasonal pre-harvest supply constraints are likely to offset some of the gains from lower logistics costs,” it said.

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Economy

NASD Index Drops 1.61%

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NASD Unlisted Securities Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and Afriland Properties Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.61 per cent on Tuesday, July 14.

CSCS Plc saw its stock value drop N9.08 to close at N82.40 per share compared with the preceding session’s N91.48 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 17 Kobo to sell at N15.00 per unit versus N15.70 per unit.

The losses recorded by the two securities pulled back the market capitalisation by N41.64 billion to N2.546 trillion from N2.587 trillion, and cracked the NASD Security Index (NSI) by 69.36 points to 4,242.31 points from 4,311.67 points.

It was observed that the exchange witnessed two price advancers during the session, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which gained N1.37 to end at N151.37 per share compared with the previous day’s N150.00 per share, and Food Concepts Plc chalked up 5 Kobo to settle at N2.50 per unit versus N2.45 per unit.

The volume of securities traded by market participants surged by 50.7 per cent to 13.7 million units from the previous 9.1 million units, while the value of securities went down by 79.7 per cent to N65.2 million from N320.4 million, and the number of deals crashed by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from the previous session’s 28 deals.

At the close of transactions, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with the sale of 3.4 billion units for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc, which exchanged 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 73.9 million units transacted for N5.2 billion.

GNI Plc also closed the trading day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.

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