Economy
How Cardoso Influenced Retaining Interest Rate at 27% in November
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, voted to hold interest rate at 27 per cent at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
The committee members were split on whether to cut interest rates or keep them unchanged when they met in November, but the central bank chief broke the ice with a hold vote.
Minutes of the MPC meeting held on November 25 revealed a split vote across the 11 members, with five members supporting a hold at 27 per cent and five members favouring a rate cut. One member abstained.
Mr Cardoso, as the 12th man and chairman of the committee, said holding rates was a deliberate signal to reinforce macroeconomic stability and acknowledge that the current monetary policy stance was beginning to deliver the intended outcomes.
It had been widely expected that the MPC would cut the rate after headline inflation declined for the seventh consecutive month to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, down from 18.02 per cent in September, at the time.
“In my view, holding is a clear signal of reinforcing stability and acknowledgement that the current policy stance is having the desired effect,” Mr Cardoso said.
The committee also retained the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for deposit money banks at 45 per cent, merchant banks at 16 per cent and 75 per cent for non-Treasury Single Account (TSA) public sector deposits, while the liquidity ratio was kept at 30 per cent.
Mr Cardoso noted that the improved anchoring of overnight market rates within the standing facilities corridor demonstrated stronger transmission of monetary policy to the wholesale market, describing this development as a positive outcome.
According to him, the effective transmission of policy provided room for further technical adjustments to the corridor in response to evolving liquidity conditions and sustained price action in the benchmark government securities market.
He added that the proposed asymmetric adjustment of the monetary policy corridor widening the floor while keeping the ceiling tight was designed to absorb persistent excess liquidity without undermining the Central Bank’s control over short-term interest rates.
Economy
Oil Prices Mixed as US Proposes Plan to End Iran War
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices were mixed on Tuesday after reports that the United States had sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East.
Brent futures went down by $0.83 or 0.9 per cent to $99.11 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate climbed $4.22 or 4.79 per cent to $92.35 per barrel.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the US and Iran were “in negotiations right now” and suggested Tehran was eager to make a peace deal, even as the Islamic Republic denied it’s in direct talks with America.
President Trump, speaking in the Oval Office, said he decided to back off from his recent threat to order strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure
According to reports, the plan includes a one-month ceasefire to be announced, according to a mechanism that US Middle East envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are working on.
The Strait of Hormuz was handling about 20 per cent of global seaborne oil supplies until the war broke out, before Iran virtually stopped flows via the critical waterway. With around a fifth of the world’s daily oil supply cut off by the Middle East war, prices are still more than 40 per cent higher than they were when the conflict erupted in late February.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), which has seen its liquified natural gas (LNG) and most oil supply choked at the vital chokepoint, said Iran’s weaponisation of the energy and trade flows amounts to economic terrorism against every nation in the world.
Since the US-Israel strikes on Iran began on February 28, the daily traffic of over 100 vessels, including tankers, through the Strait of Hormuz, has slowed to a trickle of a handful of passages per week, all cargoes apparently approved for transit by Iran.
Iranian state media said that Iran would permit safe transit through the strait, except for ships associated with its “enemies.”
Amid the messaging clash between the US and Iran on negotiations, multiple outlets have reported that regional leaders are engaged in behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts to help broker an end to the war.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US rose by 2.3 million barrels in the week ending March 20. Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) will be released later on Wednesday.
Economy
Airtel Africa, Others Lift Nigerian Exchange by 0.85%
By Dipo Olowookere
The bulls rescued the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited from the bears on Tuesday amid cherry-picking of shares with sound fundamentals.
Data showed that the bourse closed higher by 0.85 per cent during the trading day, influenced by bargain-hunting activities by investors.
Business Post reports that Airtel Africa led the gainers’ chart yesterday after it rose by 10.00 per cent to N2,497.00, Consolidated Hallmark increased by 10.00 per cent to N4.95, John Holt gained 10.00 per cent to close at N14.30, Legend Internet also surged by 10.00 per cent to N6.60, and Zichis appreciated by 9.97 per cent to N10.37.
On the flip side, NPF Microfinance Bank lost 6.29 per cent to trade at N6.56, Royal Exchange depreciated by 5.32 per cent to N1.78, CWG crashed by 4.82 per cent to N20.75, Veritas Kapital went down by 4.21 per cent to N2.05, and UPDC slipped by 3.88 per cent to N4.95.
The market breadth index was positive after Customs Street finished with 32 appreciating equities and 26 depreciating equities, representing bullish investor sentiment.
It was observed that buying pressure was across the key sectors of the market, with the insurance, consumer goods, and banking indices up by 2.14 per cent, 0.53 per cent, and 0.50 per cent apiece, while the industrial goods and energy sectors closed flat.
The All-Share Index (ASI) gained 1,691.86 points on Tuesday to finish at 200,705.88 points from Monday’s 199,014.02 points, and the market capitalisation soared by N1.086 trillion to N128.836 trillion from N127.750 trillion.
At the exchange yesterday, 1.3 billion shares worth N65.3 billion were traded in 89,949 deals compared with the 848.8 million shares valued at N53.3 billion transacted in 139,458 deals a day earlier, showing a decline in the number of deals by 35.50 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 53.16 per cent and 22.51 per cent, respectively.
The activity log was topped by Access Holdings with 266.8 million stocks valued at N6.0 billion, GTCO traded 184.4 million shares for N19.4 billion, Wema Bank exchanged 182.5 million equities worth N4.8 billion, UBA sold 119.1 million stocks valued at N5.8 billion, and Zenith Bank transacted 42.7 million shares for N4.6 billion.
Economy
Nigeria to Raise Output by 100,000 bpd to Offset Global Supply Shortfall
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mr Bayo Ojulari, has said that Nigeria could increase oil production by about 100,000 barrels per day over the next few months to realistically help the global shortfall.
Speaking with Reuters on the sidelines of the ongoing CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, the NNPC helmsman, when asked if Nigeria could help make up for the crude shortfall resulting from the US-Israel war on Iran, said the country was working towards it.
His comment comes as the war continued to rage on and affect crude prices as well as liquified natural gas (LNG), particularly due to the restrictions from the Strait of Hormuz.
The country averaged between 1.6 million barrels per day and 1.7 million barrels per day last year and is hoping to average 1.8 million barrels per day this year, but has faced several challenges to production, mainly underinvestment and oil theft.
“We are building that capacity,” he said, though he added, “We are not like Saudi Arabia,” referring to the top OPEC member. “But we can contribute.”
During an onstage interview at the conference, Mr Ojulari said NNPC completed a full portfolio review of its business last year and is beginning to implement changes this year.
He said a crucial focus that the state oil company is working on is to improve execution and ensure projects are delivered on budget and on time.
His comments followed the country recording a combined crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in January and February of 2026, according to an analysis of data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
According to the data, Nigeria produced a total of 50.5 million barrels of crude oil and condensate in January, while output declined notably in February, with total production dropping to approximately 41.6 million barrels, bringing cumulative output for the two months to 92 million barrels.
Based on the government’s benchmark in the 2026 budget, the country was expected to produce about 57 million barrels in January and 51.5 million barrels in February, to reach about 108.6 million barrels for the period.
The daily production averages provided in the NUPRC report further illustrated the extent of the gap. In January, total liquids output, according to the data, averaged about 1.63 million barrels per day, falling short of the 1.84 million barrels per day target by roughly 210,000 barrels per day.
In the same vein, in February, the shortfall widened significantly, with production averaging about 1.48 million barrels per day, leaving a gap of around 360,000 barrels per day.
According to the report, over the course of the two months, the daily deficits accumulated into the overall shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels, reinforcing the scale of Nigeria’s underperformance relative to its fiscal assumptions.
Crude oil production remained the dominant component of Nigeria’s output in the period under review. In January, crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day, before declining to roughly 1.31 million barrels per day in February, dragging down overall output for the month.
On the other hand, condensate production, while significantly smaller in volume, provided some support to total output. It averaged just over 116,000 barrels per day in January and about 122,000 barrels per day in February.
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