Economy
How Stock Market Investors ‘Pocketed’ N916bn During Lockdown—Analysis
By Dipo Olowookere
**As Market Recorded 15 Gains, 8 Losses During Period
When on Sunday, March 29, 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari announced in a nationwide broadcast that activities and offices in Abuja, Lagos and Ogun State would be totally shut down from the next day except for those rendering essential services, many thought the stock market would be badly affected.
The outcome of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) on Monday, March 30, 2020, confirmed the fears of many about this as on the first day of the lockdown, the market went down by 2.43 percent.
Though the trading floor of the bourse remained closed, the management of the exchange activated its business continuity plan to allow stockbrokers and investors trade remotely using electronic devices.
The next day, the market fell by 0.14 percent and prices were trading low, and the next day, which was April Fool’s Day, another loss was recorded, this time, by 0.94 percent.
When the next day the market appreciated by 0.10 percent, some analysts said it would be short-lived and they guessed right because at the next trading session, the market returned to its familiar territory, losing 0.13 percent on the last trading session of that week.
When activities resumed the next Monday, investors were greeted with a 2.02 percent loss and for some traders, they quickly positioned themselves by buying equities at cheap prices with the hopes of selling high when things normalise probably after the lockdown or when vaccine for the COVID-19, which caused the initial stay-at-home order, is found by scientists.
But Business Post observed that for the next seven consecutive sessions, the market was acting like it was on steroids, closing in the green territory until it was halted on April 20 and 21, 2020.
On April 22, it closed bullish, but slipped the next day by 1.36 percent, before staging a comeback from April 23 till the last day of the lockdown on May 4, 2020.
Many have wondered why the stock market remained bullish despite the economy struggling for life as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.
Few days ago, Business Post attributed the sudden rise in the market to foreign portfolio investors choosing to reinvest their funds in the local market when they could not take away their trapped Dollars out of the country because of the stoppage of forex sales to dealers at the Investors and Exporters segment of the market.
From Business Post’s analysis, there were a total of 23 trading sessions from when the lockdown became effective in Nigeria till it was lifted by President Buhari.
It was observed that of the 23 trading days, the market recorded 18 gains and eight losses. Putting this into percentage, bulls dominated by 76 percent, while the bears managed only 24 percent.
During the 23 trading days, the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 1,759.07 points to 23,089.86 points from 21,330.79 points, while the market capitalisation increased by N916 billion to N12.033 trillion from N11.117 trillion.
Since the movement cessation was eased, the market has remained bullish, closing higher at the close of transactions on Thursday.
However, as at the time of filing this report, the market was down by 1.20 percent.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
More petroleum marketers are looking to take advantage being offered by the Dangote Refinery in Lagos through its bulk-purchase incentives, allowing petrol stations to sell premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, cheaper to motorists.
Recall that recently, Dangote Refinery entered into a deal with MRS Oil Nigeria, Ardova Plc, Heyden for the purchase of petrol at least two million litres at N909 per litre.
With this agreement, MRS Oil has been able to dispense to customers at a pump price of N935 per litre across its stations in Nigeria.
For those not under this arrangement, they have been battling with price instability, especially after depot owners recently increased their price to N950 per litre from N909 per litre because of the rise in crude oil prices in the international market.
Worried by this and attracted by the bulk-purchase agreement incentives of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association (IPMAN) is already having talks to buy directly from the Lagos-based oil facility.
The national president of the group, Mr Abubakar Maigandi Garima, said members are eager to sign on with Dangote Refinery for the bulk-purchase agreement.
He argued that members could not continue to depend on depot owners for products when they can buy directly from the refinery bearing in mind that the minimum quantity to buy from Dangote Refinery is two million litres at N909 per litre.
The desire to be part of the bulk-purchase agreement, it was also gathered, was also apparently being fuelled by the testimonies from motorists who have been praising the impressive burn rate of fuel sourced from Dangote Refinery and sold in MRS filing stations which they said lasts longer compared to other products imported into the country and sold by others.
The management of the Dangote Refinery, citing economic relief provided by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s crude-for-naira swap initiative, had announced a bulk-purchase offer incentives to the three leading downstream sector operators, so that Nigerians could heave a sigh of relief on the reduced pump price.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has projected a 3.6 per cent economic growth for Nigerian in 2025 and 2026 on the back of ongoing reforms by the federal government.
The Bretton Wood institution in its report titled Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 published on Thursday, said recent reforms, including subsidy removal, Naira liberalisation and the introduction of tax reform bills would help to boost business confidence.
“In Nigeria, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2024, mainly driven by services sector activity, particularly in financial and telecommunication services.
“Macroeconomic and fiscal reforms helped improve business confidence. In response to rising inflation and a weak naira, the central bank tightened monetary policy.
“Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit narrowed due to a surge in revenues driven by the elimination of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, following the unification of the exchange rate and improved revenue administration,” a part of the report stated.
The World Bank noted that the wider Sub-Saharan Africa, to which Nigeria belongs would see a 4.1 per cent growth in the current year, before seeing a 4.3 per cent rise in 2026.
“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, SSA is expected to firm to 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, as financial conditions ease alongside further declines in inflation. Following weaker-than-expected regional growth last year, growth projections for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, with improvements seen across various subgroups. At the country level, projected growth has been upgraded for nearly half of SSA economies in both 2025 and 2026.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to an average of 3.6 per cent a year in 2025-26. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024, inflation is projected to gradually decline, boosting consumption and supporting growth in the services sector, which continues to be the main driver of growth,” it added.
The global lender disclosed that oil production is expected to increase over the forecast period but remain below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
By Adedapo Adesanya
Four price gainers helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange close higher by 0.35 per cent on Thursday, January 16.
The value of the trading platform jumped by N3.69 billion during the session to N1.072 trillion from the N1.068 trillion it closed in the preceding session, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) made an addition of 10.67 points to wrap the session at 3,103.83 points compared with 3,093.16 points recorded at the previous session.
Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc added 3 Kobo to its price yesterday to trade at 33 Kobo per unit compared with Wednesday’s closing price of 30 Kobo per unit, Newrest Asl Plc appreciated by N2.85 to N31.18 per share from N28.53 per share, 11 Plc gained N2.90 to close at N256.00 per unit versus the N253.10 per unit it finished a day earlier, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by 21 Kobo to N39.16 per share, in contrast to midweek’s N38.95 per share.
On Thursday. there was an 85.3 per cent increase in the volume of securities traded by investors to 1.2 million units from the 666,494 units recorded in the preceding session, the value of shares traded surged by 8.9 per cent to N18.0 million from N16.5 million, and the number of deals leapt by 65 per cent to 33 deals from 20 deals.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units sold for N43.0 million, and Afriland Properties Plc valued at 690,825 sold for N11.1 million.
IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 23.5 million units sold for N5.3 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units valued at N43.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc followed with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million.
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