Economy
How to Unlock Africa’s $3trn Free Trade Opportunity
New research from global law firm Baker McKenzie and Oxford Economics, AfCFTA’s $3 trillion Opportunity: Weighing Existing Barriers against Potential Economic Gains, shows that if fully implemented, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) will unlock significant but uneven growth opportunities on the continent.
The African Union is putting the Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) into operation. It will be the world’s largest free trade area by number of countries and is so far in force across 27 countries.
Open economy key to success
Some countries are currently better placed than others to reap the rewards of intraregional trade and numerous obstacles mean that the tangible benefits of the agreement will likely only be realized from 2030. The report finds countries with good existing trade integration with their neighbours and which have open economies are most likely to benefit economically from lower trade tariffs.
For example, South Africa stands to maximize the benefit from AfCFTA towards future growth and further trade expansion, due to its existing strong connections across the continent and a well-established manufacturing base. Smaller economies, such as those of Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, stand to benefit from the agreement, due to existing favourable conditions such as having open economies, good infrastructure and supportive business environments, they could quickly ramp up their intracontinental exports.
The report also reveals that to unlock the full US$3 trillion in growth potential that free trade will bring to the region, governments and businesses across the continent will need to fully support the AfCFTA agreement and prioritise it over the patchwork of regional and competing agreements in Africa.
Mattias Hedwall, Partner and Head of Baker McKenzie’s Global International Commercial & Trade Group, notes that the AfCFTA agreement will create the world’s largest free trade zone by number of countries and is expected to revolutionise trade across the continent.
“Once implemented, it will lead to sustainable socio-economic development, increased diversification, a boost in investment, trade liberalisation, the industrialisation of African economies, the establishment of new cross-border value chains and better insulation from global shocks,” he says The results of our analysis show countries that have already been bold enough to create more open, business-friendly environments stand to make the biggest gains. The message should be that freeing up trade is going to be the big engine of African growth through the 2020s and the first movers have the biggest advantages.”
Older trade agreements risk stifling growth
However, AfCFTA’s success depends on the continent’s ability to overcome several big challenges that relate to limitations in infrastructure, resources, political climate and existing regional trade agreements.
Kamal Nasrollah, Partner and Head of Baker McKenzie in Casablanca explains that, currently, regional integration in Africa is largely an unattained goal, despite the continent’s Regional Economic Communities (RECs). Overall, the RECs have complex and often conflicting policies and have achieved very different levels of integration to-date.
“Despite the challenges, however, some RECs have successfully encouraged effective trade between member countries. For example, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, Senegal and South Africa have become regional trading hubs, having leveraged alliances they established through their RECs. Morocco is also an active trade hub within the Union du Maghreb Arab (UMA) trade agreement as well as the various trade agreements it has entered into with the US, the EU and the francophone Africa free-trade zone (UEMOA). One of the ways forward for African economies to further implement effective intraregional trade may be to draw on the lessons learned from these successful RECs,” Nasrollah says.
More trade between African nations is the real growth opportunity
Currently, Africa ranks behind other regions in terms of its overall level of regional trade integration. The AfCFTA’s intraregional trade share of 17% compares to 64% for the European Union and 50% for the US Mexico Canada Agreement. At present, trade links between Africa and the rest of the world are often stronger than trade between countries on the continent.
According the Report, African nations currently tend to trade more with Europe (35%) and Asia (31%) than with neighbouring markets. In contrast, less than a fifth of African countries’ exports are headed to other countries on the continent.
“These intracontinental trade shortcomings underscore the extent of lost revenue and development opportunities for African countries. They also highlight the benefits of supporting the AfCFTA and working together towards its successful implementation,” says Nasrollah.
Virusha Subban, Partner specialising in Customs and Trade at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, explains that while African nations may trade within their respective RECs under preferential terms, trade beyond these regional agreements is generally subject to most-favoured nation (MFN) tariffs, which are much higher and act as a disincentive to trade integration.
The Report compares Africa’s 20 largest economies in terms of the share of exports destined for other economies on the continent. Some economies, such as Uganda and Zimbabwe, buck the overall trend, trading more with their neighbours than other African nations do. Yet, their economies are small in contrast to those of Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, which together represent more than half of the continent’s GDP. Egypt and Nigeria, for instance, have very limited trade relationships with their African peers. As major fuel exporters, they are focused on exports outside the continent.
“Over three quarters of African exports to the rest of the world are heavily focused on natural resources, primarily raw materials. In contrast, a look at African imports from outside the continent reveals that manufacturing products, industrial machinery and transport equipment constitute over 50% of Africa’s combined needs. Currently, Africa’s external imports account for more than half of the total volume of imports, with the most important suppliers being Europe (35%), China (16%) and the rest of Asia including India (14%). By contrast imports from other parts of Africa account for only 16% of total merchandise imports.
“Manufacturing GDP represents on average only 10% of GDP in Africa. This means that limited production capabilities within Africa are currently being compensated for through foreign imports. Yet, this manufacturing deficit could be eventually satisfied within the continent and enabled by AfCFTA. Manufactured products currently exported to African countries by their peers, primarily industrial machinery and motor vehicles, represent a third of the total trade flow in Africa. But a significant share of these intraregional exports of manufactured goods are re-exports of imported manufactured products from the rest of the world,” says Subban.
“This shows that African nations do not trade more with each other because of a misalignment between what various African countries need and what is produced on the continent. This misalignment signals missed opportunities to reduce foreign imports from outside Africa and increase trade flows within the continent. For AfCFTA to succeed fully, more countries need to diversify their production of goods to better match the import needs of their continental neighbours,” she notes.
Multinationals will benefit most from building out their business across Africa to support intra-African trade. Governments should seek to develop policies and regulations to bolster economic relations with their nearest neighbours as well as courting foreign direct investment from Asia, Europe and the US.
“Egypt has chaired the African Union through the year the agreement has come into force in 27 nations – a huge achievement – and now has the opportunity to focus on bringing forward implementation measures to fully activate AfCFTA in one of the continent’s largest economies by growing cross-border trade with nearby countries and diversifying the economy,” said Lamyaa Gadelhak, a partner in Baker McKenzie’s Cairo office.
Overcoming non-tariff barriers requires investment
Wildu du Plessis, Head of Africa at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, says the Report underscores the importance of not only lowering tariff barriers, but also addressing non-tariff barriers to intra-regional trade. Some of the most significant obstacles to AfCFTA are inadequate infrastructure, poor trade logistics, onerous regulatory requirements, volatile financial markets, regional conflict and complex and corrupt customs procedures. These can be even more detrimental to trade expansion than tariff measures.
“There is a strong consensus that the vast infrastructure gap in Africa, including transport and utilities infrastructure, must be urgently addressed so as not to restrict increased trade integration,” du Plessis notes, adding that South Africa is next to chair the African Union, starting in January 2020 and will be keen to facilitate progress in free trade on the continent under the agreement, especially as it is one of the nations with the greatest opportunities for growth.
Du Plessis explains that large infrastructure projects in the pipeline should improve the situation with some non-tariff barriers. These include the Trans-Maghreb Highway in North Africa and the North-South Multimodal Corridor, connecting extensive parts of Southern Africa, as well as the Central Corridor project and the Abidjan-Lagos Corridor Highway project.
“AfCFTA is expected to act as a strong impetus for African governments to address their infrastructure needs as well as to overhaul regulation relating to tariffs, bilateral trade, cross-border initiatives and capital flows. Both domestic and foreign trade will benefit from reforms to regulation, political climate and trade policies that enhance competitiveness and improve the ease of doing business.
“It is important to be realistic about timeframes, however, as effective solutions will take years, given limited financial capacity in many countries, high risks to private financing of infrastructure, political hurdles, administration shortfalls and lack of resources. Less developed economies that are likely to find themselves more exposed initially will therefore prefer a more gradual implementation of the trade deal,” du Plessis says.
Weighing the opportunity
Countries with relatively less manufacturing capacity and weaker trade ties, such as Algeria and Sudan also have higher political and security risks, which undermine their ability to trade and integrate into regional value chains. And the economy of Angola is heavily dependent on hydrocarbons, limiting its ability to fully capitalise on the AfCFTA deal in the near-term. All three economies need to diversify and become more receptive to FDI.
“Economies that are less export-oriented or have unfavourable business environments should identify their comparative advantages and key strengths, and leverage these to tap into new or established AfCFTA value chains,” says Hedwall. “While the benefits may not be immediate, the launch of the AfCFTA is a positive step, not just for the African continent, but for world trade in general. While there are still numerous challenges to be resolved, we expect that if the barriers to its effective implementation can be addressed, the next decade will see the growth of the African Continental Free Trade Area into one world’s most exciting new global trading zones.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has raised concerns over the month-on-month rise in inflation despite a moderate easing in headline inflation.
Earlier this week, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Nigeria’s consumer prices moderating slightly to 15.06 per cent year-on-year in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January. However, a sharp month-on-month rebound to 2.01 per cent signalled renewed momentum.
LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, called for deliberate action amid risks such as exchange-rate volatility and food insecurity.
She viewed the drop from 26.27 per cent in February 2025 as cautious optimism but stressed vigilance.
“Addressing high inflation has been crucial, as it has greatly impacted purchasing power, production costs, and consumer demand,” Mrs Almona said.
She flagged imported input costs and domestic issues, such as agricultural insecurity, noting that, “With the potential for exchange-rate volatility… There is a risk of increased costs for imported raw materials, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items.”
Mrs Almona advocated prioritising FX stability through non-oil exports, food security through productivity and infrastructure, and energy reforms to ensure reliable power.
“Advancing reforms in the power and energy sectors is crucial for reducing production costs,” she added, alongside transport and port efficiencies.
“Sustaining this trend will require consistent macroeconomic management, structural reforms, and policies aimed at enhancing domestic productivity,” she added.
She noted that with the potential for exchange-rate volatility, there is a risk of increased costs for imported raw materials, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items.
“Nigeria has the opportunity to mitigate these external pressures by investing in local refining capacities and ensuring that crude supply meets domestic needs.”
“This could subsequently affect production and consumer prices. Other concerns, such as insecurity in agricultural regions, climate-related disruptions, and high transportation costs, could also challenge food supply and price stability.”
She pointed out that it is vital for the government to undertake deliberate policy actions to maintain the current easing of inflation, saying that “prioritising exchange-rate stability by enhancing foreign exchange liquidity and promoting non-oil export earnings is key.
She emphasised the importance of enhancing efficiency in transportation and trade infrastructure, including port operations, cargo evacuation systems, and digital trade processes, saying that such improvements can notably reduce logistics costs that contribute to consumer prices.
“While the marginal decline in inflation is a positive development, sustaining this trend will require consistent macroeconomic management, structural reforms, and policies aimed at enhancing domestic productivity.
“We must act swiftly to address concerns that may jeopardise the progress made in controlling inflation. Given that month-on-month rates already suggest ongoing inflationary challenges, supply-side interventions are likely to offer more sustainable solutions than imposing price controls on manufacturers and investors,” the LCCI DG explained.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Shipping Association of Nigeria (SAN) has clarified that a recent upward review of tariffs by shipping line agencies operating in the country was to reflect prevailing economic realities.
SAN clarified in a response dated March 16, 2026, to a letter from the National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwarders (NAGAFF) Trade Advocacy Committee, which had opposed the tariff adjustment approved by the Nigerian Shippers’ Council (NSC), the port economic regulator.
In the letter signed by SAN chairman, Mrs Boma Alabi, the association acknowledged the concerns raised by freight forwarders. It maintained that some of the claims made by NAGAFF did not accurately represent the regulatory process that preceded the approval or the operational realities of international shipping operations in Nigeria.
Mrs Alabi stressed that the tariff adjustment was neither implemented unilaterally by shipping lines nor granted arbitrarily by the regulator.
According to her, the council conducted an extensive review before approving, including detailed cost analysis submitted by shipping line agencies, an assessment of prevailing economic conditions such as inflation and foreign exchange volatility, as well as stakeholder consultations carried out over an extended period.
She added that the review process lasted nearly two years and involved several rounds of regulatory scrutiny before the final approval was granted.
“It is therefore inaccurate to suggest that the approval was granted without due consideration of the statutory regulatory framework,” Mrs Alabi said.
She explained that the adjustment merely represents a partial cost recovery measure, considering the sharp rise in operational costs across the maritime sector in recent years.
Mrs Alabi also clarified that the approval was not granted across the board to all shipping lines, noting that it did not amount to a blanket increase for every operator.
According to her, the adjustment approved by the shippers’ council is modest and significantly lower than Nigeria’s cumulative inflation rate within the same period.
“In practical terms, the adjustment does not represent a real increase in economic terms but rather a limited adjustment intended to partially offset the impact of rising operational costs,” she said.
She listed some of the cost drivers to include increasing port and terminal charges, administrative and regulatory compliance costs, exchange rate fluctuations, and logistics and operational overheads.
Mrs Alabi further noted that the tariff review reflects broader developments across the maritime and logistics sector, where several service providers have adjusted their charges in response to economic pressures.
She pointed out that truck operators, freight forwarders, clearing agents, terminal operators and other logistics service providers have all increased their rates in recent years.
“In this context, it would be unrealistic and inequitable to expect shipping line agencies alone to maintain static rates despite operating under the same economic pressures,” she said.
The SAN chairman also dismissed insinuations that shipping lines exercise collective market dominance, stressing that the global liner shipping industry is highly competitive.
According to her, shipping companies compete independently in freight pricing and service delivery while constantly striving to improve operational efficiency and attract cargo volumes through better service offerings.
She added that several operational challenges cited by NAGAFF – such as port congestion, container return logistics, documentation bottlenecks and operational delays- are systemic issues within the entire port ecosystem and cannot be attributed solely to shipping line agencies.
Mrs Alabi explained that port operations involve multiple stakeholders, including port authorities, terminal operators, customs and regulatory agencies, freight forwarders, and trucking and logistics providers.
She therefore called for collaborative efforts among stakeholders to address the challenges rather than placing responsibility on a single segment of the logistics chain.
On allegations of regulatory infractions, the SAN chairman said the claims referencing laws such as the ICPC Act and the FCCPC Act appear speculative and are not backed by formal regulatory findings.
She maintained that shipping line agencies operating in Nigeria remain under the oversight of several government institutions and continue to comply with all applicable statutory and regulatory requirements.
Mrs Alabi reiterated that the tariff adjustment approved by the Nigerian Shippers’ Council followed a lengthy regulatory process that carefully reviewed cost structures, economic conditions and stakeholder input.
According to her, the decision was aimed at ensuring the sustainability of maritime services while maintaining fairness within the port economic framework.
She added that since the approval was granted by the NCS in its regulatory capacity, the agency is best positioned to address any further concerns regarding the tariff review.
The Covid-19 pandemic brought a different work mode globally that promised freedom: remote work. This new work approach brought along technological innovations that aided the conveniences that accompanied it: the ability to work from anywhere, collaborate across time zones, and build a career without borders. But the one problem nobody warned us about was that getting paid and using that money shouldn’t require a finance degree.
Remote workers in Nigeria sought various avenues to navigate international payments, and one of the solutions that was provided was OneDosh, which has now become the bridge between earning globally and spending locally. Built by global fintech leaders, OneDosh developed solutions to solve these problems.
We will be focusing on how real people are using the platform to simplify their financial lives in this article.
The Payment Waiting Game Nobody Talks About – Chioma’s Story
Chioma works as a social media manager for two U.S. companies and a UK-based startup. Her biggest frustration isn’t the work itself or managing clients across time zones. It’s the anxiety that comes every payment cycle when she wonders if her domiciliary account will receive the wire transfer, or if this will be the month her bank flags the transaction for “verification” that takes weeks to resolve.
She’s had months where a $2,000 payment got stuck in banking limbo for three weeks while her landlord sent messages about rent. The experience taught her that having multiple international clients doesn’t guarantee financial stability when you can’t reliably access your earnings.
OneDosh changed her approach entirely. Now when clients pay her in stablecoins, the money arrives within minutes and she can decide immediately what to do with it, whether to convert to naira for immediate expenses, keep in USD for savings, or split between both. The control matters more than the speed, though the speed helps when bills are due.
When Your Card Works Until It Doesn’t – Tunde’s Story
Tunde learned the hard way that Nigerian debit cards have spending limits that make international subscriptions a constant negotiation. His Adobe Creative Cloud subscription failed three months in a row despite having money in his account. Customer support would apologize, he’d try a different card, and the cycle would repeat until he eventually had to ask a friend abroad to pay for it while he reimbursed them.
The OneDosh visa card solved this specific problem, but more importantly, it eliminated the unpredictability. He uses it for all his international subscriptions now like software tools, cloud storage, freelancing platform fees, without wondering if this will be the month his bank decides the transaction looks suspicious. The card works consistently, which sounds basic until you’ve experienced the alternative.
Naira Volatility and the Dollar Earning Advantage – Blessing’s Experience
For remote workers earning in dollars, the mathematics of currency conversion has become a monthly calculation that affects every financial decision. Blessing, a freelance writer, watches exchange rates the way other people check weather forecasts. A project that pays $500 means something very different in naira depending on when and how she converts it.
Her previous system involved converting everything to naira immediately at the offered rate, rather than exploring other options but felt safer than alternatives she didn’t fully understand. With OneDosh, she keeps her dollar earnings in the Onedosh wallet until she needs them; converting smaller amounts as needed rather than converting everything at once. This helps her manage timing and stay mindful of exchange rates and fees.
The Family Support Reality – Emeka the Tech Bro
Remote work success in Nigeria often means becoming the family member others turn to when emergencies arise. Emeka earns well working for a Canadian tech company, which means he’s frequently sending money to siblings for school fees, parents for medical bills, or extended family for various urgent needs.
Sending support shouldn’t feel complicated or time-consuming. With OneDosh, he can transfer funds seamlessly from wherever he is, with a simple and straightforward process. This flexibility is especially valuable when someone needs access to funds at a critical moment, allowing him to respond quickly and confidently.
“Although he believes this hasn’t made him richer, it certainly has made helping family significantly less stressful and time-consuming, which matters when you’re trying to balance work deadlines with family obligations.”
The Nigerian remote worker experience involves navigating payment systems that weren’t built for how we work now. Blocked transactions, unclear fees, conversion rate losses, spending limits etc are barriers that make earning internationally harder than it needs to be.
OneDosh doesn’t eliminate every challenge remote workers face, but it addresses several major ones directly. The platform works with the reality of Nigerian remote workers rather than pretending those realities don’t exist.
If you’re managing international payments, download the OneDosh app, It is designed to help you handle things more smoothly.
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