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IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s Economic Growth to 3.0%

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Nigeria's economic growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.0 per cent in 2025, a downgrade from the 3.2 per cent project by the organisation earlier this year.

According to its latest World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the Bretton Wood institution said the downgrade was due to recent tariffs move by the US under President Doland Trump.

“Since the release of the January 2025 WEO Update, a series of new tariff measures by the United States and countermeasures by its trading partners have been announced and implemented, ending up in near-universal US tariffs on April 2 and bringing effective tariff rates to levels not seen in a century.” it noted.

The organisation also projects a 2.7 per cent growth rate for the country in 2026.

The global financial institution noted that while Nigeria faces significant challenges, particularly with inflation, forex volatility, and weak infrastructure, recent policy adjustments, such as the partial unification of exchange rates and removal of fuel subsidies, could enhance investor confidence and stimulate economic activity if properly implemented.

The IMF warned that the US tariffs on its own is a major negative shock to global growth.

“The unpredictability with which these measures have been unfolding also has a negative impact on economic activity and the outlook and, at the same time, makes it  more difficult than usual to make assumptions that would constitute a basis for an internally consistent and timely set of projections,” the April outlook said.

The IMF added that the swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic activity.

Based on this, it projected that global growth is projected to slow to 2.8 per cent in 2025 and 3 per cent in 2026—down from 3.3 per cent for both years in the January 2025 WEO Update, corresponding to a cumulative downgrade of 0.8 percentage point, and much below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 per cent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Nigeria Records Five-Year Peak in Oil Output at 1.71mbpd

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crude oil output

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s oil production recorded a five-year high of 1.71 million barrels per day, marking a significant rebound for the country’s upstream sector amid renewed efforts to restore output and improve operational stability.

The latest figure, released by Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, covers the period from April 2025 to April 2026 and underscores a steady recovery in crude production after years of disruptions caused by theft, pipeline vandalism and underinvestment.

According to the chief executive of the national oil company, Mr Bayo Ojulari, the performance reflects measurable progress across the company’s upstream, gas and downstream operations, with production gains supported by improved asset management and stronger field performance.

Within its exploration and production business, NNPC recorded a peak daily output of 365,000 barrels in December 2025, the highest level ever achieved by its upstream subsidiary. The company also advanced key contractual reforms, including revised production-sharing terms for deepwater assets aimed at unlocking additional gas reserves.

Nigeria’s gas ambitions are also gaining traction. Gas supply rose to 7.5 billion standard cubic feet per day in 2025, driven by major infrastructure milestones such as the River Niger crossing on the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano pipeline and the commissioning of the Assa North-Ohaji South gas processing plant.

These investments are beginning to strengthen domestic gas utilisation. New supply agreements with major industrial consumers, including Dangote Refinery, Dangote Fertiliser and Dangote Cement, are expected to deepen gas penetration across manufacturing and power generation.

On the downstream front, NNPC has continued crude supply to Dangote Refinery under the crude-for-naira arrangement, a policy designed to reduce foreign exchange demand, support local refining and improve fuel market stability. The company also reaffirmed its 7.25 per cent equity stake in the refinery as part of its long-term energy security strategy.

Financially, the national oil company said it has resumed full monthly remittances to the Federation Account since July 2025. It has also reinstated regular performance reporting and held its first earnings call, moves widely seen as part of a broader push towards greater transparency and corporate accountability.

Despite the progress, challenges remain. Crude theft, pipeline outages and infrastructure bottlenecks continue to threaten production stability. Sustaining this recovery will depend on stronger security, reliable infrastructure and policy consistency as Nigeria seeks to maximise the benefits of rising domestic refining capacity.

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Economy

UAE to Leave OPEC May 1

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Nigeria OPEC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United ‌Arab Emirates has announced its decision to quit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to focus on national interests.

This dealt ⁠a heavy ⁠blow to the oil-exporting group at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran had caused ⁠a historic energy shock and rattled the global economy.

The move, which will take effect on May 1, 2026, reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”, a statement carried by state media said on Tuesday.

“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” it added. “However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”

The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could create disarray and weaken the oil cartel, which has usually sought to show a united ⁠front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas.

UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies.

“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to the level of production,” the minister said.

OPEC’s Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a ‌narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, because of threats and attacks against vessels during the war.

The UAE had been a member of OPEC first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when it became its own country in 1971.

The oil cartel, based in Vienna, has seen some of its market power wane as the US has increased its production of crude oil in recent years.

Additionally, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed over economic issues and regional politics, particularly in the Red Sea area.

The two countries had joined a coalition to fight against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis in 2015. However, that coalition broke down into recriminations in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for Yemeni separatists backed by the UAE.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Inches Up 0.03% as CSCS Outshines Four Price Decliners

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Nigerian OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc bested four price decliners on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday, April 27. The alternative stock market opened the week bullish during the session with a 0.03 per cent uptick.

According to data, the security depository company added N2.61 to its share price to close at N76.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N78.87 per unit.

As a result, the market capitalisation of the platform increased by N820 million to N2.425 trillion from N2.424 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 1.38 points to finish at 4,053.97 points compared with the 4,052.58 points it ended last Friday.

The four price losers were led by NASD Plc, which slumped by N3.80 to sell at N34.70 per share versus N38.50 per share. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc fell by N1.45 to N98.10 per unit from N99.55 per unit, Food Concepts Plc slid by 27 Kobo to N2.43 per share from N2.70 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 9 Kobo to N2.91 per unit from N3.00 per unit.

The value of securities transacted by market participants went down by 82.0 per cent to N7.4 million from N41.3 million units, the volume of securities declined by 28.5 per cent to 319,831 units from 447,403 units, and the number of deals dropped by 34.1 per cent to 29 deals from 44 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units sold for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.

Also, GNI Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with a turnover of 400 million units worth N1.2 billion.

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