Economy
Tinubu’s Economic Reforms Poorly Timed, Lacked Critical Safeguards—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Renowned economist, Dr Yemi Kale, says Nigeria must recalibrate its economy through disciplined reforms, forward-looking governance, and people-centred development.
Mr Kale, a former head of Nigeria’s statistics bureau and now Group Chief Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), gave this advice at the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse, where he delivered a keynote address that examined Nigeria’s current economic hardship and offered a compelling and urgent roadmap toward sustainable recovery and shared prosperity.
According to the economist, Nigeria is grappling with both external shocks and internal structural fragilities: from global inflationary pressures to domestic policy missteps.
“Business as usual is no longer an option,” he quipped, warning that slowing growth, commodity volatility, rising protectionism, and geopolitical instability are compounding Nigeria’s vulnerabilities.
“From exchange rate volatility to eroding investor confidence, Nigeria finds itself navigating a storm with limited buffers,” he explained.
He critiqued the removal of fuel subsidies, FX rate unification, tax overhauls, and monetary tightening, leading to surging inflation, currency depreciation, contracting investment, and intensifying socioeconomic hardship, noting that while the reforms instituted by President Bola Tinubu were necessary steps toward a rules-based economy, they were poorly sequenced and lacked critical safeguards.
“Most of Nigeria’s economic hardship is not caused by unforeseen events but by policies introduced without adequate safeguards. Public trust is built not just by making policies—but by implementing them with foresight, fairness, and firmness,” he submitted.
The economist then outlined a clear, actionable framework to transition Nigeria from macroeconomic fragility to resilient, inclusive growth revolving around three pillars: macroeconomic stability, economic diversification, and social investment and inclusive governance.
He noted that restoring confidence begins with fiscal discipline, transparent FX management, and tighter coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.
“The first pillar is macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic stability is not an outcome—it is a prerequisite. Nigeria must rebuild investor and citizen confidence by addressing fiscal imbalances, taming inflation, and restoring exchange rate credibility.”
He noted that this can be done via enforcing tax reform, curb leakages, and ensure budget credibility, empowering the central bank with operational independence and clear mandates, tackling inflation through supply-side reforms—particularly in agriculture and logistics, maintaining a transparent, market-reflective exchange rate supported by non-oil exports and reserve buffers, as well as creating a predictable investment climate that encourages long-term capital formation.
“The second pillar is economic diversification. Diversification is no longer optional. Nigeria’s dependence on oil exposes it to external volatility and fiscal instability. We must rapidly expand our productive base,” adding that core focus should be on agriculture, manufacturing, services and digital economy, small businesses, and infrastructure.
“The third and final pillar is social investment and governance. True growth is people-centered. It must deliver meaningful improvements in the lives of Nigerians across all demographics and regions.”
Dr Kale emphasised that key focus areas include the need to expand social safety nets to protect vulnerable populations from systemic shocks, improve access to basic services—housing, healthcare, electricity, water, and strengthen education through curriculum reform, teacher training, and vocational pathways.
He also advocated fostering entrepreneurship and digital inclusion, particularly for youth and women, deepening institutional trust through anti-corruption enforcement and policy continuity, and usage of digital governance to increase transparency, reduce leakages, and improve service delivery.
“Inclusive growth is not just a social ideal—it is a strategic economic necessity,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three securities lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.38 per cent on Friday, July 3, with the NASD Security Index (NSI) up by 58.80 points to 4,307.26 points from 4,248.46 points, and the market capitalisation closing higher by N35.30 billion to N2.585 trillion from N2.549 trillion.
The price gainers were led by 11 Plc, which expanded by N20.05 to close at N220.55 per share compared with the previous day’s N200.50 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc increased by N5.36 to N151.82 per unit from N146.46 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by N3.52 to N90.74 per share from N87.22 per share.
Yesterday, the value of transactions surged by 1,431.2 per cent to N160.1 million from the preceding session’s N10.5 million, and the volume of trades rose by 303.7 per cent to 1.8 million units from 440,653 units, while the number of deals decreased by 34.4 per cent to 21 deals from 32 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 70.7 million units transacted for N4.9 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The losing streak on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was halted on Friday after the bourse closed higher by 2.19 per cent at the close of trading activities.
The gains reported by Nigerian stocks were buoyed by renewed bargain-hunting by investors, which resulted in all the key sectors of Customs Street ended in the green territory.
The banking space rose by 2.78 per cent, the insurance counter appreciated by 1.26 per cent, the energy segment expanded by 0.36 per cent, the consumer goods index chalked up 0.06 per cent, and the industrial goods sector grew by 0.05 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 4,918.37 points to 229,240.34 points from 224,321.97 points, and the market capitalisation increased by N3.156 trillion to N147.103 trillion from N143.947 trillion.
Investor sentiment was bullish after 34 stocks ended on the price gainers’ chart and 18 stocks finished on the losers’ log, representing a positive market breadth index.
The quintet of The Initiates, Universal Insurance, DAAR Communications, Omatek, and Airtel Africa surged by 10.00 per cent to sell for N25.85, 88 Kobo, N1.65, N1.76, and N5,274.00, respectively.
On the flip side, International Energy Insurance lost 9.96 per cent to trade at N4.70, Meyer shed 9.95 per cent to close at N18.55, Veritas Kapital dropped 5.07 per cent to finish at N1.31, Fidelity Bank slipped by 2.17 per cent to N18.00, and Jaiz Bank crashed by 1.84 per cent to N28.12.
During the session, a total of 414.7 million equities worth N25.1 billion exchanged hands in 47,106 deals compared with the 855.4 million equities valued at N28.4 billion transacted in the preceding day in 51,609 deals, implying a contraction in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 51.52 per cent, 11.62 per cent, and 8.73 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira closed flat against the United States Dollar at N1,370.19/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, July 3.
However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment by N2.29 to settle at N1,829.88/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,832.17/£1, and marginally depreciated against the Euro by 4 Kobo to close at N1,568.32/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,568.28/€1.
At the parallel market, the Naira also traded flat against the US Dollar at N1,390/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also maintained stability at N1,832/$1.
Market conditions improved shortly after the following minimal intervention by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through modest Dollar sales, which boosted liquidity and supported stronger trading activity.
Easing pressure came after half-year profit-taking tapered down, while continued stronger policy signals from the central bank add to near-term support.
Deals executed at the official market on Friday came in at $70.430 million across 82 interbank deals, from $85.517 million the previous day.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market continued its recovery after June non-farm payrolls printed at 57,000, less than half the 113,000 consensus, sending the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from 64 per cent to 54 per cent and dragging AI stocks sharply lower.
Weak labour data reduces inflationary pressure and, by extension, the Federal Reserve’s justification for holding rates elevated. That transmission mechanism is direct: lower rate-hike odds compress the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like crypto.
Bitcoin regained the $62,000 mark after it rose by 1.3 per cent to $62,475.29.
Cardano (ADA) gained 6.6 per cent to trade at $0.1759, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.5 per cent to $1.14, Ethereum (ETH) expanded by 2.4 per cent to $1,756.82, Dogecoin (DOGE) improved by 2.1 per cent to $0.0768, Solana (SOL) chalked up 1.8 per cent to $82.65, TRON (TRX) increased by 1.5 per cent to $0.3235, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.4 per cent to $569.12, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 apiece.
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