Economy
IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s GDP Growth for 2024 to 3%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees Nigeria’s economy growing by 3 per cent in 2024, a downward revision from the 3.1 per cent it projected last year.
In its January edition of World Economic Outlook (WEO), the lender said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2024 is lower than the 3.76 per cent projection in Nigeria’s 2024 budget.
The multilateral lender also made a 3.1 per cent forecast for Nigeria in 2025 in its latest WEO released on Tuesday.
The projection aligns with other forecasts, including the Central Bank of Nigeria at 3.4 per cent, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) at 3.5 per cent, and PwC’s 3.1 per cent among others.
The IMF equally nudged its global growth forecast higher, citing the unexpected strength of the United States economy and fiscal support measures in China.
It predicted a 3.8 per cent growth for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, from 3.3 per cent in the preceding year.
The IMF WEO report stated: “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.1 per cent in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside, and supply issues gradually improve.
“The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2 percentage point from October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa on account of increasing logistical constraints, including those in the transportation sector, on economic activity.
“But global growth is projected at 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that of October 2023 on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China,” the lender said.
The forecast for 2024–2025 was, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth.
The brighter outlook for the global economy was due largely to the strength of the US economy, which grew 3.1 per cent last year.
China’s economy is also growing faster than previously thought and is projected to grow 4.6 per cent this year.
Global headline inflation was expected to fall from an estimated 6.8 per cent in 2023 (annual average) to 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.4 per cent in 2025.
The global forecast was unrevised for 2024 compared with October 2023 projections and revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2025.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Afriland Properties Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc crashed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by a marginal 0.06 per cent on Wednesday, December 11 due to profit-taking activities.
The OTC securities exchange experienced a downfall at midweek despite UBN Property Plc posting a price appreciation of 17 Kobo to close at N1.96 per share, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing price of N1.79.
Business Post reports that Afriland Properties Plc slid by N1.14 to finish at N15.80 per unit versus the preceding day’s N16.94 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 1 Kobo to trade at N3.92 per share compared with the N3.93 it ended a day earlier.
At the close of transactions, the market capitalisation of the bourse, which measures the total value of securities on the platform, shrank by N650 million to finish at N1.055 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.056 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 1.86 points to wrap the session at 3,012.50 points compared with 3,014.36 points recorded in the previous session.
The alternative stock market was busy yesterday as the volume of securities traded by investors soared by 146.9 per cent to 5.9 million units from 2.4 million units, as the value of shares transacted by the market participants jumped by 360.9 per cent to N22.5 million from N4.9 million, and the number of deals increased by 50 per cent to 21 deals from 14 deals.
When the bourse closed for the day, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units worth N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc 297.5 million units sold for N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc, which is now listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after its exit from NASD, remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units sold for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.5 million units worth N5.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The euphoria around the recent appreciation of the Naira eased on Wednesday, December 11 after its value shrank against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N5.23 or 0.3 per cent to N1,547.50/$1 from the N1,542.27/$1 it was valued on Tuesday.
It was observed that spectators’ activities may have triggered the weakening of the local currency in the official market at midweek as they tried to fight back and ensure the value of funds in foreign currencies strengthened.
The domestic currency was regaining its footing after the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) launched an Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform to tackle speculation and improve transparency in Nigeria’s FX market.
At midweek, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling by N3.56 to close at N1,958.68/£1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,955.12/£1 and against the Euro, it slumped by 34 Kobo to trade at N1,612.66/€1, in contrast to the previous session’s N1,613.00/€1.
As for the black market segment, the Naira lost N45 against the American currency during the session to quote at N1,670/$1 compared with the N1,625/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
A look at the cryptocurrency market showed a recovery following profit-taking as the US Consumer Price Index report matched economist forecasts.
The news was enough to convince traders that the Federal Reserve is certain to trim its benchmark fed funds rate another 25 basis points at its meeting next week.
The move also saw Bitcoin (BTC), the most valued coin, return to the $100,000 mark as it added a 2.9 per cent gain and sold for $100,566.12.
The biggest gainer was Cardano (ADA), which jumped by 15.00 per cent to trade at $1.16, as Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 10.4 per cent to sell for $121.76, and Ethereum (ETH) surged by 7.0 per cent to $3,929.30, while Dogecoin (DOGE) recorded a 6.7 per cent growth to finish at $0.4181.
Further, Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 5.2 per cent to $716.72, Solana (SOL) expanded by 4.6 per cent to $229.77, and Ripple (XRP) increased by 4.2 per cent to $2.43, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 apiece.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Dangote Refinery located in the Lekki area of Lagos State has made its first export of premium motor spirit (PMS) just three months after it commenced the production of petrol.
In September 2024, the refinery produced its first petrol and began loading to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) on September 15.
However, due to some issues, the facility has not been able to flood the local market with its product, forcing it to look elsewhere.
In a landmark move for regional energy integration, Dangote Refinery has partnered with Neptune Oil to take its petrol to neighbouring Cameroon.
Neptune Oil is a leading energy company in Cameroon which provides reliable and sustainable energy solutions.
Dangote Refinery said this development showcases its ability to meet domestic needs and position itself as a key player in the regional energy market, adding that it represents a significant step forward in accessing high-quality and locally sourced petroleum products for Cameroon.
“This first export of PMS to Cameroon is a tangible demonstration of our vision for a united and energy-independent Africa.
“With this development, we are laying the foundation for a future where African resources are refined and exchanged within the continent for the benefit of our people,” the owner of Dangote Refinery, Mr Aliko Dangote, said.
His counterpart at Neptune Oil, Mr Antoine Ndzengue, said, “This partnership with Dangote Refinery marks a turning point for Cameroon.
“By becoming the first importer of petroleum products from this world-class refinery, we are bolstering our country’s energy security and supporting local economic development.
“This initial supply, executed without international intermediaries, reflects our commitment to serving our markets independently and efficiently.”
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