Adedapo Adesanya
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now sees Nigeria’s economy growing by 3 per cent in 2024, a downward revision from the 3.1 per cent it projected last year.
In its January edition of World Economic Outlook (WEO), the lender said the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for 2024 is lower than the 3.76 per cent projection in Nigeria’s 2024 budget.
The multilateral lender also made a 3.1 per cent forecast for Nigeria in 2025 in its latest WEO released on Tuesday.
The projection aligns with other forecasts, including the Central Bank of Nigeria at 3.4 per cent, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) at 3.5 per cent, and PwC’s 3.1 per cent among others.
The IMF equally nudged its global growth forecast higher, citing the unexpected strength of the United States economy and fiscal support measures in China.
It predicted a 3.8 per cent growth for Sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, from 3.3 per cent in the preceding year.
The IMF WEO report stated: “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.1 per cent in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside, and supply issues gradually improve.
“The downward revision for 2024 of 0.2 percentage point from October 2023 mainly reflects a weaker projection for South Africa on account of increasing logistical constraints, including those in the transportation sector, on economic activity.
“But global growth is projected at 3.1 per cent in 2024 and 3.2 per cent in 2025, with the 2024 forecast 0.2 percentage point higher than that of October 2023 on account of greater-than-expected resilience in the United States and several large emerging market and developing economies, as well as fiscal support in China,” the lender said.
The forecast for 2024–2025 was, however, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent, with elevated central bank policy rates to fight inflation, a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weighing on economic activity, and low underlying productivity growth.
The brighter outlook for the global economy was due largely to the strength of the US economy, which grew 3.1 per cent last year.
China’s economy is also growing faster than previously thought and is projected to grow 4.6 per cent this year.
Global headline inflation was expected to fall from an estimated 6.8 per cent in 2023 (annual average) to 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.4 per cent in 2025.
The global forecast was unrevised for 2024 compared with October 2023 projections and revised down by 0.2 percentage points for 2025.
