Economy
IMF Forecasts Nigeria’s Inflation Cooling to 25% in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Nigeria’s inflation to steady at 25 per cent in 2025 and moderate to 14 per cent by 2029.
Inflation in Nigeria slightly moved up to 32.70 per cent in September 2024, far beyond the 21.4 per cent target pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The country’s inflation hit a 28-year high of 34.19 per cent in June 2024 but cooled to 33.40 per cent in July and extended this slowing to 32.15 per cent in July before rising to the current 32.70 per cent last month.
In its recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency.
“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98 per cent and 3.19 per cent, respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.
“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate.
“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.
“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.
Business Post had reported that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth prospects for 2024 was put at 2.9 per cent from 3.3 per cent for 2024 and 2025 respectively.
The IMF blamed the downgrade, particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.
Speaking on the downgrade from a year ago, the spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.
“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.
“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.
By Dipo Olowookere
Christmas came early for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited as it extended its positive run on Tuesday with a 0.82 per cent growth.
The last trading session before Christmas was bullish as investors embraced Santa Claus rally, mopping up shares with sound fundamentals across the key sectors of the bourse.
During the session, the insurance index appreciated by 1.49 per cent, the banking space expanded by 0.98 per cent, the consumer goods counter improved by 0.49 per cent, the industrial goods counter gained 0.15 per cent and the energy sector jumped by 0.14 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 829.88 points to 102,186.03 points from 101,356.15 points and the market capitalisation grew by N503 billion to N61.944 trillion from N61.441 trillion.
MRS Oil gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N217.80, Ikeja Hotel improved by 9.95 per cent to N11.05, Multiverse advanced by 9.90 per cent to N5.55, SAHCO rose by 9.84 per cent to N30.70, and John Holt increased by 9.69 per cent to N6.45.
Conversely, Thomas Wyatt shed 10.00 per cent to quote at N1.71, Caverton shrank by 7.35 per cent to N2.27, Coronation Insurance declined by 5.03 per cent to N1.70, Haldane McCall slipped by 5.00 per cent to N4.75, and Livestock Feeds moderated by 5.00 per cent to N3.80.
When the market ended for the session to resume on Friday, 37 stocks were on the gainers’ chart and 21 stocks were on the losers’ table, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
A total of 431.8 million shares worth N18.3 billion in 8,369 deals during the session compared with the 503.2 million shares valued at N16.3 billion in 12,490 deals, indicating a rise in the trading value by 12.27 per cent and a decline in the trading volume and number of deals by 14.19 per cent and 32.99 per cent, respectively.
The busiest equity for the session was UBA with 51.2 million units valued at N1.9 billion, Universal Insurance exchanged 49.6 million units for N25.1 million, C&I Leasing transacted 37.2 million units worth N134.0 million, Dangote Cement traded 34.3 million units worth N11.1 billion, and GTCO sold 17.4 million units valued at N1.0 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.06 per cent gain on Tuesday, December 24, with the market capitalisation increasing by N620 million to close at N1.032 trillion compared with the N1.031 trillion it ended a day earlier.
Business Post reports that the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) added 1.81 points to wrap the session at 3,011.59 points compared with 3,009.78 points recorded in the previous session.
The expansion recorded by the alternative stock exchange was triggered by Geo-Fluids Plc, which grew its price by 41 Kobo to N4.61 per unit from N4.20 per unit.
However, the price of UBN Property Plc went down by 20 Kobo at the Christmas Eve session to finish at N1.80 per share, in contrast to the N2.00 per share it ended a day earlier.
Yesterday, the market participants completed eight deals compared with the 31 deals carried out in the preceding trading session, representing a decline of 74.2 per cent.
In the same vein, the volume of securities traded in the session shrank by 38.9 per cent to 5.3 million units from the 8.3 million units recorded in the previous trading day, as the value of transactions decreased by 40.0 per cent to N23.8 million from N39.6 million.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units sold for N4.0 billion, Okitipupa Plc came next with 752.4 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc occupied the third position with 297.7 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.4 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.7 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
The market will be closed for two days – December 25 and 26 – to mark the Christmas holidays and trading will resume on Friday, December 27.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira witnessed a depreciation of 0.07 per cent or N1.10 against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Tuesday, December 24.
Data showed that the exchange rate of the local currency to its American counterpart closed on Christmas Eve at N1,540.65/$1, in contrast to the N1,539.55/$1 it was traded on Monday.
Similarly, the domestic currency weakened against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N7.44 to sell for N1,954.07/£1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,946.63/£1 and against the Euro, it lost N3.16 to settle at N1,614.89/€1 versus the preceding day’s N1,611.73/€1.
Market analysts noted that the access of Bureaux de Change (BDCs) to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s-backed Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform has continued to keep a lid on the rates.
Also, increased December activity through the influx of tourists has helped strengthen the demand for the local currency.
In the black market on Tuesday, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the greenback by N5 to sell at N1,650/$1 compared with the N1,655/$1 it was transacted a day earlier.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market experienced a Santa rally during the trading session, with Bitcoin (BTC) rising by 4.1 per cent to quote at $98,152.89, and Dogecoin (DOGE) growing by 3.4 per cent to sell at $0.3327.
Further, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.1 per cent to trade at $198.50, Ethereum (ETH) improved its value by 2.8 per cent to close at $3,498.25, Binance Coin (BNB) went up by 2.2 per cent to settle at $703.87, Cardano (ADA) rose by 2.1 per cent to finish at $0.9208, Ripple (XRP) expanded by 1.8 per cent to end the day at $2.29, and Litecoin (LTC) recorded a 1.7 per cent rise to trade at $108.44, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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