Economy
IMF Forecasts Nigeria’s Inflation Cooling to 25% in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Nigeria’s inflation to steady at 25 per cent in 2025 and moderate to 14 per cent by 2029.
Inflation in Nigeria slightly moved up to 32.70 per cent in September 2024, far beyond the 21.4 per cent target pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The country’s inflation hit a 28-year high of 34.19 per cent in June 2024 but cooled to 33.40 per cent in July and extended this slowing to 32.15 per cent in July before rising to the current 32.70 per cent last month.
In its recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency.
“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98 per cent and 3.19 per cent, respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.
“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate.
“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.
“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.
Business Post had reported that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth prospects for 2024 was put at 2.9 per cent from 3.3 per cent for 2024 and 2025 respectively.
The IMF blamed the downgrade, particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.
Speaking on the downgrade from a year ago, the spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.
“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.
“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.
By Dipo Olowookere
It was a good day for the stock market in Nigeria as it appreciated by 0.79 per cent on Friday to bring the year-to-date return to 0.66 per cent.
This was influenced by renewed interest across most of the sectors of the market, though the insurance index declined by 2.15 per cent when trading activities ended for the session.
Business Post reports that the banking counter appreciated by 1.97 per cent, the consumer goods space grew by 0.70 per cent, the industrial goods sector gained 0.09 per cent, and the energy counter closed flat.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 810.26 points to 103,598.46 points from the preceding day’s 102,788.20 points and the market capitalisation by N497 billion to N63.645 trillion from Thursday’s N63.148 trillion.
Chellaram was the biggest price gainer on Friday after it chalked up 10.00 per cent to trade at N4.07, Guinness Nigeria also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N77.00, SCOA Nigeria improved by 10.00 per cent to N3.96, Transcorp Power jumped by 7.96 per cent to N349.80, and Lasaco Assurance went up by 7.19 per cent to N3.28.
Conversely, Neimeth was the biggest price loser as it shed 9.88 per cent to N3.10, John Holt declined by 9.78 per cent to N8.30, International Energy Insurance depleted by 9.74 per cent to N1.76, Sovereign Trust Insurance fell by 9.40 per cent to N1.06, and Austin Laz lost 9.00 per cent to close at N1.82.
As for the activity chart, a total of 576.4 million stocks valued at N9.0 billion in 11,546 deals compared with the 394.4 million stocks worth N22.8 billion traded in 12,160 deals in the preceding session, indicating a rise in the trading volume by 46.15 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 60.53 per cent and 5.05 per cent.
Secure Electronic Technology was the busiest equity with 202.2 million units worth N151.8 million, Nigerian Breweries traded 42.1 million units valued at N1.3 billion, Japaul exchanged 34.6 million units for N79.7 million, Access Holdings sold 32.2 million units valued at N807.0 million, and Sovereign Trust Insurance traded 17.0 million units worth N18.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.42 per cent gain on Friday, January 24 after three equities ended on the advancers’ chart at the close of business.
Nipco Plc gained N15.01 during the trading day to close at N165.11 per share versus N150.10 per share of the preceding session, Okitipupa Plc added N4.79 to end the session at N52.69 per unit compared with Thursday’s trading value of N47.90 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc expanded by 80 Kobo to trade at N24.00 per share, in contrast to the N23.30 per share it was sold a day earlier.
The gains recorded by these stocks pushed the value of the bourse higher by NN7.41 billion to N1.775 trillion from the N1.767 trillion recorded in the preceding session and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) grew by 6.93 points to wrap the session at 3,133.20 points compared with 3,120.13 points recorded in the previous session.
Yesterday, the price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc went down by 92 Kobo to end the session at N38.58 per share, in contrast to the previous day’s N39.50 per share.
The volume of securities traded in the session decreased on Friday by 95.9 per cent to 16.3 million units from 407.4 million units, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 97.4 per cent to N10.2 million from N391.2 million units, and the number of deals declined by 23.3 per cent to 23 deals from 30 deals.
Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 406.5 million units worth N386.1 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 4.3 million units valued at N170.4 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units sold for N44.3 million.
Impresit Bakolori Plc was also the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 406.5 million units worth N386.1 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 26.3 million units sold for N6.3 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.2 million units valued at N44.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira extended its recent gaining spree by 1.12 per cent or N17.39 on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, January 24.
Yesterday, the local currency was traded in the official market at N1,531.20/$1 compared with the preceding trading day’s value of N1,548.59/$1.
The recent appreciation aligns with expectations that the Naira will appreciate in the first quarter of the year, backed by continued policy support by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with the latest being the launch of the FX Code due next week to enhance transparency in the market.
Also, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the spot market on the last trading day of the week by N8.97 to quote at N1,903.24/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s exchange rate of N1,912.21/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N8.72 to finish at N1,605.17/€1 versus the preceding day’s N1,613.89/€1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency appreciated against the American Dollar in the parallel market yesterday to sell for N1,660/$1 compared with the N1,665/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
In the cryptocurrency market, there was profit-taking following earlier euphoria around US President Donald Trump’s ambitious “Stargate Project” announcement, which is a $500 billion commitment to enhancing the US AI infrastructure.
Crypto commentators believe this signals a shift toward reduced oversight with the pledge unveiled on Tuesday, bringing together tech giants OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank with an initial commitment of $100 billion, scaling to $500 billion over four years.
Solana (SOL) dipped by 4.9 per cent to trade at $247.14, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 2.8 per cent to $3,290.29, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 2.4 per cent to $0.3488, and Cardano (ADA) slid by 2.1 per cent to $0.9763.
Further, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.9 per cent to $3.11, Binance Coin (BNB) shrank by 0.7 per cent to $687.71, and Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.6 per cent to $104,369.28, while Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $121.63, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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