Economy
IMF Forecasts Nigeria’s Inflation Cooling to 25% in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Nigeria’s inflation to steady at 25 per cent in 2025 and moderate to 14 per cent by 2029.
Inflation in Nigeria slightly moved up to 32.70 per cent in September 2024, far beyond the 21.4 per cent target pursued by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The country’s inflation hit a 28-year high of 34.19 per cent in June 2024 but cooled to 33.40 per cent in July and extended this slowing to 32.15 per cent in July before rising to the current 32.70 per cent last month.
In its recently published World Economic Outlook (WEO), the Bretton Wood institution noted that Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency.
“Nigeria’s economy in the first and second quarter of the year grew by 2.98 per cent and 3.19 per cent, respectively amid a surge in inflation and further depreciation of the Naira.
“The GDP growth rate in the first two quarters of 2024 surpassed the figure for 2023, representing resilience despite severe macroeconomic shocks with a spike in petrol prices and a 28-year high inflation rate.
“Nigeria’s inflation rate only began to slow down in July 2024 after 19 months of consistent increase dating back to January 2023.
“However, after two months of slowdown hiatus, inflation continued to rise on the back of an increase in petrol prices by the NNPCL in September,” the report said.
Business Post had reported that Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth prospects for 2024 was put at 2.9 per cent from 3.3 per cent for 2024 and 2025 respectively.
The IMF blamed the downgrade, particularly on the effects of recent inflation, flooding and oil production setbacks.
Speaking on the downgrade from a year ago, the spokesperson for IMF’s Research Department, Mr Jean-Marc Natal, said agricultural disruptions caused by severe flooding and security and maintenance issues hampering oil production were key drivers of the revision.
“There has been, over the last year and a half, some progress in the region. You saw, inflation stabilising in some countries, going down even and reaching a level close to the target. So, half of them are still at a large distance from the target, and a third of them are still having double-digit inflation.
“In terms of growth, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is that in the region it is still high. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate, but it’s still too high, and the debt service is, correspondingly, still high in the region,” he said.
Economy
Nigeria Gets Fresh $500m World Bank Loan for Small Businesses
By Adedapo Adesanya
The World Bank has approved a $500 million facility for Nigeria to expand longer-term lending to small and medium sized businesses.
Approved under the Fostering Inclusive Finance for MSMEs in Nigeria (FINCLUDE) project, the package comprises a $400 million International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) loan and a $100 million International Development Association (IDA) credit. Both IBRD and IDA are members of the World Bank Group.
The scheme will be implemented by the Development Bank of Nigeria (DBN), with credit guarantees provided through DBN’s subsidiary, Impact Credit Guarantee Limited (ICGL).
FINCLUDE is designed to address constraints faced by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Nigeria which despite accounting for most businesses and nearly half of gross domestic product (GDP) face long-standing barriers to formal finance.
Fewer than one in 20 MSMEs have access to bank credit; loans are often short-term and costly; and collateral requirements exclude many viable firms. Women-led enterprises, which make up a substantial portion of MSMEs, are disproportionately affected, facing higher rejection rates and limited tailored products. Agribusinesses, central to food security and rural livelihoods, similarly struggle to obtain more extended‑tenor financing for equipment, processing, storage, and logistics.
However, FINCLUDE seeks to address these constraints by expanding access to affordable, longer-term finance and tailored solutions for segments with the most significant development impact.
Speaking on this, the World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mr Mathew Verghis, said, “FINCLUDE is about jobs, opportunity, and inclusion. By expanding access to finance for viable MSMEs—particularly women-led firms and agribusinesses—Nigeria can accelerate growth and deliver tangible benefits across communities nationwide.
“The project will make it easier for deserving small businesses to get the finance they need to grow and hire workers. With better support for lenders that practice inclusive finance and fairer, longer-term loans for entrepreneurs, we are backing the people who power Nigeria’s economy—especially women and those in agriculture.”
The FINCLUDE project will help to mobilise private investment and expand access to and usage of inclusive, innovative financial products for MSMEs nationwide.
Through DBN, the operation will strengthen the capacity of banks, including microfinance banks and non-bank financial institutions such as financial technologies (fintechs), to provide larger loans with more reasonable repayment periods, and—through ICGL—will scale partial credit guarantees so that lenders can extend credit to businesses they might otherwise consider too risky.
Targeted technical assistance will modernise loan appraisal by leveraging AI-enabled digital platforms to accelerate decision-making, improve data quality, strengthen impact measurement, and build capacity for both MSMEs and participating financial institutions.
According to the World Bank, a strong emphasis on inclusion will ensure that women-led businesses and agribusinesses benefit from these improvements.
Also commenting, Task Team Leader for FINCLUDE, Mrs Hadija Kamayo, said, “FINCLUDE will help to mobilize approximately $1.89 billion in private capital, expand debt financing to 250,000 MSMEs—including at least 150,000 women-led businesses and 100,000 agribusinesses—and issue up to $800 million in guarantees to catalyse lending.
“By extending the average maturity of MSME loans to about three years, it will help firms invest in equipment, factories, staff, and productivity, translating finance into jobs and growth.”
Economy
Nigerian Stocks Close 1.13% Higher to Remain in Bulls’ Territory
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock market firmed up by 1.13 per cent on Friday as appetite for Nigerian stocks remained strong.
Investors reacted well to the 2026 budget presentation of President Bola Tinubu to the National Assembly yesterday, especially because of the more realistic crude oil benchmark of $64 per barrel compared with the ambitious $75 per barrel for 2025. This year, prices have been between $60 and $65 per barrel.
Business Post observed profit-taking in the commodity and energy sectors as they respectively shed 0.14 per cent and 0.03 per cent.
But, bargain-hunting in the others sustained the positive run, with the consumer goods index up by 3.82 per cent.
Further, the industrial goods space appreciated by 1.46 per cent, the banking counter improved by 0.08 per cent, and the insurance industry gained 0.04 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 1,694.33 points to 152,057.38 points from 150,363.05 points and the market capitalisation chalked up N1.080 trillion to finish at N96.937 trillion compared with Thursday’s closing value of N95.857 trillion.
A total of 34 shares ended on the advancers’ chart, while 24 were on the laggards’ log, representing a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
Austin Laz gained 10.00 per cent to close at N2.42, Union Dicon also jumped 10.00 per cent to N6.60, Tantalizers increased by 9.80 per cent to N2.69, Aluminium Extrusion improved by 9.78 per cent to N12.35, and Champion Breweries grew by 9.71 per cent to N16.95.
Conversely, Sovereign Trust Insurance dipped by 7.42 per cent to N3.87, Royal Exchange lost 6.84 per cent to trade at N1.77, Omatek slipped by 6.84 per cent to N1.09, Eunisell depreciated by 5.88 per cent to N80.00, and Eterna dropped 5.63 per cent to close at N28.50.
Yesterday, traders transacted 1.5 billion units worth N21.8 billion in 25,667 deals compared with the 839.8 million units sold for N32.8 billion in 23,211 deals in the preceding session, showing a surge in the trading volume by 76.61 per cent, an uptick in the number of deals by 10.58 per cent, and a shrink in the trading value by 33.54 per cent.
Economy
FrieslandCampina, Two Others Erase N26bn from NASD OTC Bourse
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three stocks stretched the bearish run of the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.21 per cent on Friday, December 19, with the market capitalisation giving up N26.01 billion to close at N2.121 billion compared with the N2.147 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropping 43.47 points to 3,546.41 points from 3,589.88 points.
The trio of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, and NASD Plc overpowered the gains printed by four other securities.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N6.00 to sell at N54.00 per unit versus N60.00 per unit, NASD Plc shrank by N3.50 to N58.50 per share from N55.00 per share, and CSCS Plc depleted by N2.91 to N33.87 per unit from N36.78 per unit.
On the flip side, Air Liquide Plc gained N1.01 to close at N13.00 per share versus N11.99 per share, Golden Capital Plc appreciated by 70 Kobo to N7.68 per unit from N6.98 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc added 39 Kobo to sell at N5.50 per share versus N5.11 per share, and IPWA Plc rose by 8 Kobo to 85 Kobo per unit from 77 Kobo per unit.
During the trading day, market participants traded 1.9 million securities versus the previous day’s 30.5 million securities showing a decline of 49.3 per cent. The value of trades went down by 64.3 per cent to N80.3 million from N225.1 million, but the number of deals jumped by 32.1 per cent to 37 deals from 28 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc finished the session as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units traded for N4.9 billion.
The most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was still InfraCredit Plc with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units traded for N524.9 million.
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