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IMF Maintains 2.7% GDP Growth Forecast for Nigeria in 2022

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IMF GDP growth forecast

By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has stuck to its forecast that Nigeria’s economy will grow by 2.7 per cent this year, just as it raised its forecast for 2023 to 2.7 per cent from the 2.6 per cent it projected last year.

The new GDP growth forecast for Nigeria was contained in the IMF’s January World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released on Tuesday.

This is as the Bretton Wood institution lowered its global economic growth forecast for this year, as the Omicron variant continues to spread unabated and supply chain disruptions stoke inflation amid higher energy prices.

The fund, which estimated the global economy to have expanded by 5.9 per cent in 2021, revised down its 2022 output projections to 4.4 per cent, half a percentage point lower than its estimate in October.

Global growth is expected to reach 3.8 per cent in 2023, a 0.2 percentage point higher than projected in the IMF’s October forecast, which, it said, was largely a mechanical pickup after current drags on growth dissipate in the second half of 2022.

However, next year’s forecast is conditional on adverse health outcomes declining to low levels in most countries by the end of 2022, assuming vaccination rates improve worldwide and therapies become more effective.

The global economy has entered 2022 in a weaker-than-anticipated position as the rapid spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 led to increased mobility restrictions and financial market volatility at the end of last year.

Supply disruptions have continued to weigh on activity, inflation has been higher than anticipated.

The 0.5 percentage point revision for 2022 economic output largely reflects the forecast markdowns in the United States and China, the world’s two largest economies, IMF said.

Advanced economies, which are estimated to have grown 5 per cent in 2021, are now set to grow 3.9 per cent this year, 0.6 percentage points lower than estimated in October.

The growth is expected to moderate further to 2.6 per cent, which is still an improvement of 0.4 percentage points from the previous forecast.

The US is estimated to have registered a growth of 5.6 per cent last year. It is forecast to expand 4 per cent in 2022, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the IMF’s October projection. The fund estimates growth for the US to reach 2.6 per cent in 2023.

“This reflects lower prospects of legislating the Build-Back-Better fiscal package, an earlier withdrawal of extraordinary monetary accommodation and continued supply disruptions,” Ms Gopinath said.

Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is set to expand 3.8 per cent in 2022, a 0.8 percentage point downward revision from October estimates.

France, the euro area’s second-largest economy, is forecast to grow 3.5 per cent, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point drop from the previous estimate.

Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, is projected to grow 3.3 per cent this year after expanding an estimated 1.6 per cent in 2021.

The UK, the world’s fifth-largest economy, is expected to expand 4.7 per cent in 2022 after growing 7.2 per cent in 2021, according to IMF data.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Insurance Firms Must Submit 2025 Assessment Returns by May 31—NAICOM

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NAICOM Conplaint Management Portal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Insurance Commission has issued new guidelines for the collection, management, and administration of the Insurance Policyholders’ Protection Fund.

In a circular issued to all insurance institutions on Tuesday, the regulator also set May 31, 2026, as the deadline for insurers to submit their assessment returns for the 2025 financial year.

Recall that on August
 5, 2025, 
President Bola Tinubu signed
 into 
law
 the 
Nigerian 
Insurance 
Industry Reform 
Act (
NIIRA
2025).


This 
landmark legislation 
repeals 
the 
Insurance 
Act 
2003, 
and
 consolidates 
related 
provisions, 
ushering 
in 
a 
modern regulatory framework. It lays a strong foundation for sustainable growth and increased investment in the country’s insurance sector.

The commission said the guidelines were issued in exercise of its powers under the 2025 Act and other existing insurance laws and regulations to provide regulatory clarity, improve guidance, and ensure ease of compliance across the industry.

According to NAICOM, the guidelines establish a comprehensive structure for the operation of the IPPF, which serves as a statutory safety net to protect insurance policyholders in the event of distress or insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer. The framework also provides direction on the reimbursement of loans by insurers and reinsurers.

NAICOM stated, “The guidelines ensure regulatory clarity, guidance and ease of compliance, as it provides a comprehensive regulatory framework for the collection, management, and administration of the Fund, which serves as a statutory safety net designed to protect insurance policyholders against distress and insolvency of a licensed insurer or reinsurer, including guidance for the reimbursement of loans by an insurer or reinsurer.

“Please be informed that the IPPF Assessment Returns in respect of the year 2025 shall be submitted to the Commission not later than 31st May 2026, while subsequent submissions shall be in line with Section 4.3 of the Guideline on Insurance Policyholders Protection Fund.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Sells Petrol at N1,200/L as Global Oil Prices Slump

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Refinery on Wednesday returned the petrol price to N1,200 per litre, less than 24 hours after it increased it by 5 per cent.

The private refinery had raised the ex-depot price by N75 on Tuesday, citing pressure from volatile global oil markets, but quickly brought it back to N1,200 per litre from N1,275 per litre.

The swift downward review is directly linked to a sharp drop in international crude prices. Brent crude has plunged to $95.05 per barrel, after a 13 per cent decline, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude closed at $97.18, recording nearly a 14 per cent drop.

This development comes after US President Donald Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, which eased fears of immediate supply disruptions in the global oil market.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” Trump said on social media, marking a sharp reversal from his earlier warning that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if Iran failed to comply with US demands.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mr Abbas Araqchi, confirmed that the country would halt attacks provided strikes against Iran cease and transit through the Strait of Hormuz is coordinated by Iranian forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

While oil prices have fallen back below $100, they remain significantly elevated after surging by a record amount in March. Market analysts noted that regardless of how successful the ceasefire is, geopolitical risk related to the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain elevated for the foreseeable future under the control of Iran.

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Economy

Crude Deliveries Double to Dangote Refinery in Mix of Naira, Dollar Supply

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil deliveries from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery doubled in March, boosting prospects for improved fuel availability.

This was revealed by the chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, on Tuesday, when he received the Deputy Secretary-General of the United Nations, Mrs Amina Mohammed, at the industrial complex in Ibeju-Lekki, Lagos.

While speaking on feedstock supply, Mr Dangote commended the NNPC for increasing crude deliveries to the refinery in March, noting that volumes rose to 10 cargoes—six supplied in Naira and four in Dollars—to support domestic fuel availability, according to a statement by the Refinery.

“Last month, they gave us six cargoes for Naira and four cargoes for Dollars,” he said.

Despite the improvement, Mr Dangote noted that the supply remains below the 19 cargoes required for optimal operations, with the refinery continuing to bridge the gap through imports from the United States and other African producers.

He also expressed concern over the unwillingness of international oil companies operating in Nigeria to sell to the refinery, stating that their preference for selling crude to traders forces it to repurchase at higher costs, with broader implications for the economy.

Mr Dangote added that the refinery is seeking increased access to domestically priced crude under local currency arrangements as part of efforts to moderate fuel costs and enhance long-term energy and food security across the continent.

On her part, Mrs Mohammed underscored the strategic importance of Dangote Industries Limited -particularly Dangote Fertiliser Limited—in addressing Africa’s mounting food security challenges, while calling for stronger global partnerships to scale its impact.

Mrs Mohammed said the United Nations would prioritise amplifying scalable solutions capable of mitigating the continent’s food crisis, describing Dangote’s integrated industrial model as a critical pathway.

“I think the UN’s job here is to amplify and to put visibility on the possibilities of mitigating a food security crisis, and this is one of them,” she said. “I hope that when we go back, we can continue to engage partners and countries that should collaborate with Dangote Industries.”

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