Economy
IMF Projects 2.5% Growth for Nigeria in 2020, 2021
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent this year (2020) and the next (2021), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The projection was contained in the IMF’s January World Economic Outlook (WEO) titled Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery, signed by Ms Gita Gopinath, an Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the Fund, which was released on Monday and covers a two-year time period (2020-2021).
In an earlier report released last year October, there had been projection that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 percent in 2019 and 2.5 percent in 2020 as a result of recovery in oil prices and development in agriculture.
It also predicted that inflation is expected to rise in 2020 in the wake of the expected increase in the minimum wage and a higher VAT rate, regardless of the central bank’s effort to sustain a tight monetary policy.
The fund, however, gave a low projection in its growth forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region to 3.5 percent due to constrains and deteriorating public finance in South Africa.
“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.5 percent in 2020–21 (from 3.3 percent in 2019). The projection is 0.1 percentage point lower than in the October WEO for 2020 and 0.2 percentage point weaker for 2021.
“This reflects downward revisions for South Africa (where structural constraints and deteriorating public finances are holding back business confidence and private investment) and for Ethiopia (where public sector consolidation, needed to contain debt vulnerabilities, is expected to weigh on growth),” the global lender said.
Also, the IMF gave a low projection to the global economy to 3.3 percent in 2020, representing a one percentage point decline from 3.4 percent forecast made in October last year.
“Global growth, estimated at 2.9 percent in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3 percent in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4 percent in 2021. Compared to the October WEO forecast, the estimate for 2019 and the projection for 2020 represent 0.1 percentage point reductions for each year while that for 2021 is 0.2 percentage point lower.
“The global growth trajectory reflects a sharp decline followed by a return closer to historical norms for a group of under-performing and stressed emerging market and developing economies (including Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey).
“The growth profile also relies on relatively healthy emerging market economies maintaining their robust performance even as advanced economies and China continue to slow gradually toward their potential growth rates.
“The effects of substantial monetary easing across advanced and emerging market economies in 2019 are expected to continue working their way through the global economy in 2020. The global growth estimate for 2019 and projection for 2020 would have been 0.5 percentage point lower in each year without this monetary stimulus.”
“The global recovery is projected to be accompanied by a pickup in trade growth (albeit more modest than forecast in October), reflecting a recovery in domestic demand and investment in particular, as well as the fading of some temporary drags in the auto and tech sectors,” the international financial institution said on Monday.
With this projection, it is 0.4 percent higher than 2.1 percent projected by the World Bank for three years: 2020 – 2023 earlier in the year.
By Dipo Olowookere
It was a good day for the stock market in Nigeria as it appreciated by 0.79 per cent on Friday to bring the year-to-date return to 0.66 per cent.
This was influenced by renewed interest across most of the sectors of the market, though the insurance index declined by 2.15 per cent when trading activities ended for the session.
Business Post reports that the banking counter appreciated by 1.97 per cent, the consumer goods space grew by 0.70 per cent, the industrial goods sector gained 0.09 per cent, and the energy counter closed flat.
Yesterday, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 810.26 points to 103,598.46 points from the preceding day’s 102,788.20 points and the market capitalisation by N497 billion to N63.645 trillion from Thursday’s N63.148 trillion.
Chellaram was the biggest price gainer on Friday after it chalked up 10.00 per cent to trade at N4.07, Guinness Nigeria also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N77.00, SCOA Nigeria improved by 10.00 per cent to N3.96, Transcorp Power jumped by 7.96 per cent to N349.80, and Lasaco Assurance went up by 7.19 per cent to N3.28.
Conversely, Neimeth was the biggest price loser as it shed 9.88 per cent to N3.10, John Holt declined by 9.78 per cent to N8.30, International Energy Insurance depleted by 9.74 per cent to N1.76, Sovereign Trust Insurance fell by 9.40 per cent to N1.06, and Austin Laz lost 9.00 per cent to close at N1.82.
As for the activity chart, a total of 576.4 million stocks valued at N9.0 billion in 11,546 deals compared with the 394.4 million stocks worth N22.8 billion traded in 12,160 deals in the preceding session, indicating a rise in the trading volume by 46.15 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 60.53 per cent and 5.05 per cent.
Secure Electronic Technology was the busiest equity with 202.2 million units worth N151.8 million, Nigerian Breweries traded 42.1 million units valued at N1.3 billion, Japaul exchanged 34.6 million units for N79.7 million, Access Holdings sold 32.2 million units valued at N807.0 million, and Sovereign Trust Insurance traded 17.0 million units worth N18.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.42 per cent gain on Friday, January 24 after three equities ended on the advancers’ chart at the close of business.
Nipco Plc gained N15.01 during the trading day to close at N165.11 per share versus N150.10 per share of the preceding session, Okitipupa Plc added N4.79 to end the session at N52.69 per unit compared with Thursday’s trading value of N47.90 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc expanded by 80 Kobo to trade at N24.00 per share, in contrast to the N23.30 per share it was sold a day earlier.
The gains recorded by these stocks pushed the value of the bourse higher by NN7.41 billion to N1.775 trillion from the N1.767 trillion recorded in the preceding session and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) grew by 6.93 points to wrap the session at 3,133.20 points compared with 3,120.13 points recorded in the previous session.
Yesterday, the price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc went down by 92 Kobo to end the session at N38.58 per share, in contrast to the previous day’s N39.50 per share.
The volume of securities traded in the session decreased on Friday by 95.9 per cent to 16.3 million units from 407.4 million units, the value of shares traded yesterday slumped by 97.4 per cent to N10.2 million from N391.2 million units, and the number of deals declined by 23.3 per cent to 23 deals from 30 deals.
Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 406.5 million units worth N386.1 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 4.3 million units valued at N170.4 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units sold for N44.3 million.
Impresit Bakolori Plc was also the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 406.5 million units worth N386.1 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 26.3 million units sold for N6.3 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.2 million units valued at N44.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira extended its recent gaining spree by 1.12 per cent or N17.39 on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, January 24.
Yesterday, the local currency was traded in the official market at N1,531.20/$1 compared with the preceding trading day’s value of N1,548.59/$1.
The recent appreciation aligns with expectations that the Naira will appreciate in the first quarter of the year, backed by continued policy support by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), with the latest being the launch of the FX Code due next week to enhance transparency in the market.
Also, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the spot market on the last trading day of the week by N8.97 to quote at N1,903.24/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s exchange rate of N1,912.21/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N8.72 to finish at N1,605.17/€1 versus the preceding day’s N1,613.89/€1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency appreciated against the American Dollar in the parallel market yesterday to sell for N1,660/$1 compared with the N1,665/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
In the cryptocurrency market, there was profit-taking following earlier euphoria around US President Donald Trump’s ambitious “Stargate Project” announcement, which is a $500 billion commitment to enhancing the US AI infrastructure.
Crypto commentators believe this signals a shift toward reduced oversight with the pledge unveiled on Tuesday, bringing together tech giants OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank with an initial commitment of $100 billion, scaling to $500 billion over four years.
Solana (SOL) dipped by 4.9 per cent to trade at $247.14, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 2.8 per cent to $3,290.29, Dogecoin (DOGE) fell by 2.4 per cent to $0.3488, and Cardano (ADA) slid by 2.1 per cent to $0.9763.
Further, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.9 per cent to $3.11, Binance Coin (BNB) shrank by 0.7 per cent to $687.71, and Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 0.6 per cent to $104,369.28, while Litecoin (LTC) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $121.63, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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