Economy
IMF Projects 2.5% Growth for Nigeria in 2020, 2021
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s economy is expected to grow by 2.5 percent this year (2020) and the next (2021), according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The projection was contained in the IMF’s January World Economic Outlook (WEO) titled Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery, signed by Ms Gita Gopinath, an Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department at the Fund, which was released on Monday and covers a two-year time period (2020-2021).
In an earlier report released last year October, there had been projection that the country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 2.3 percent in 2019 and 2.5 percent in 2020 as a result of recovery in oil prices and development in agriculture.
It also predicted that inflation is expected to rise in 2020 in the wake of the expected increase in the minimum wage and a higher VAT rate, regardless of the central bank’s effort to sustain a tight monetary policy.
The fund, however, gave a low projection in its growth forecast for the Sub-Saharan African region to 3.5 percent due to constrains and deteriorating public finance in South Africa.
“In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to strengthen to 3.5 percent in 2020–21 (from 3.3 percent in 2019). The projection is 0.1 percentage point lower than in the October WEO for 2020 and 0.2 percentage point weaker for 2021.
“This reflects downward revisions for South Africa (where structural constraints and deteriorating public finances are holding back business confidence and private investment) and for Ethiopia (where public sector consolidation, needed to contain debt vulnerabilities, is expected to weigh on growth),” the global lender said.
Also, the IMF gave a low projection to the global economy to 3.3 percent in 2020, representing a one percentage point decline from 3.4 percent forecast made in October last year.
“Global growth, estimated at 2.9 percent in 2019, is projected to increase to 3.3 percent in 2020 and inch up further to 3.4 percent in 2021. Compared to the October WEO forecast, the estimate for 2019 and the projection for 2020 represent 0.1 percentage point reductions for each year while that for 2021 is 0.2 percentage point lower.
“The global growth trajectory reflects a sharp decline followed by a return closer to historical norms for a group of under-performing and stressed emerging market and developing economies (including Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey).
“The growth profile also relies on relatively healthy emerging market economies maintaining their robust performance even as advanced economies and China continue to slow gradually toward their potential growth rates.
“The effects of substantial monetary easing across advanced and emerging market economies in 2019 are expected to continue working their way through the global economy in 2020. The global growth estimate for 2019 and projection for 2020 would have been 0.5 percentage point lower in each year without this monetary stimulus.”
“The global recovery is projected to be accompanied by a pickup in trade growth (albeit more modest than forecast in October), reflecting a recovery in domestic demand and investment in particular, as well as the fading of some temporary drags in the auto and tech sectors,” the international financial institution said on Monday.
With this projection, it is 0.4 percent higher than 2.1 percent projected by the World Bank for three years: 2020 – 2023 earlier in the year.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.12 per cent on Monday, March 16.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N1.45 during the session to sell at N123.55 per share versus the previous price of N125.00 per share, and Geo Fluids Plc depreciated by 5 Kobo to N3.05 per unit from N3.10 per unit.
The losses recorded by the two securities lowered the market capitalisation by N8.88 billion to N2.480 trillion from N2.489 trillion, and crashed the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 14.86 points to 4,145.60 points from 4,160.46 points.
On the first trading day of the week, the value of securities transacted by investors went up by 10.8 per cent to N33.2 million from N29.9 million, but the volume of securities dipped 97.5 per cent to 265,610 units from 10.4 million units, and the number of deals decreased by 43.5 per cent to 26 deals from 46 deals.
At the close of trades, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.6 million units sold for N2.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 6.4 million units traded for N1.2 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 6.5 million units worth N609.6 million.
Resourcery Plc closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units transacted for N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.6 million units exchanged for N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the week stronger against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, March 16, by N8.46 or 0.62 per cent to trade at N1,357.77/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,366.23/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N23.45 to quote at N1,789.54/£1 compared with last Friday’s value of N1,812.99/£1, and improved its value against the Euro by N9.72 to N1,558.31/€1 from N1,568.03/€1.
Similarly, the Naira gained N5 against the greenback in the parallel market during the trading session to sell for N1,395/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,400/$1, and closed flat at the GTBank FX desk at N1,385/$1.
The pressure that piled on the domestic currency appeared to have eased, buoyed by higher oil prices, which have continued to bolster market sentiment.
A report by Coronation Merchant Bank Research said Brent crude prices advanced by 11.16 per cent week-on-week, rising from $91.00 per barrel to close at $101.16 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The bank noted that developments in the region heightened concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply, increasing volatility in energy markets.
Nigeria recorded modest portfolio inflows as investors sought higher-yielding opportunities, but the inflows helped support liquidity in the FX market and contributed to the Naira’s recovery during the past week.
Also, Nigeria’s inflation cooled to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices continued to weigh the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping route between the Persian Gulf and global markets — appeared to ease slightly.
US President Donald Trump called on other nations to help secure the waterway, while some tankers reportedly have crossed the Strait, suggesting that traffic through the corridor has not been fully disrupted.
This weakened some coins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), which slumped by 1.7 per cent to $0.0998, and Cardano (ADA), which depreciated 1.6 per cent to $0.2832. Binance Coin (BNB) lost 1.5 per cent to sell for $674.25, TRON (TRX) declined by 0.6 per cent to $0.2964, and Solana (SOL) dropped 0.2 per cent to $93.66.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped 2.2 per cent to $1.51, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 1.5 per cent to $2,302.08, and Bitcoin (BTC) appreciated by 0.1 per cent to $73,951.40, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The All-Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited reached an all-time high of 201,474.89 points on Monday after adding 3,067.59 points or 1.55 per cent to its previous closing figures of 198,407.30 points.
Buying pressure in three of the five key sectors sustained the upward trend on Customs Street during the trading session, analysis of the market data revealed.
The industrial goods sector appreciated by 4.52 per cent, the banking index improved by 2.20 per cent, and the consumer goods space rose by 0.03 per cent.
However, the insurance sector experienced profit-taking, which crashed it by 0.43 per cent, and the energy counter lost 0.08 per cent due to sell-offs.
When the bourse ended for the day, the market capitalisation chalked up N1.969 trillion to settle at N129.330 trillion compared with last Friday’s M127.361 trillion.
BUA Cement led the advancers’ group yesterday after growing by 10.00 per cent to N297.00, Premier Paints jumped 9.79 per cent to N21.30, John Holt expanded by 9.52 per cent to N10.35, Guinea Insurance soared by 9.38 per cent to N1.40, and Fortis Global Insurance grew by 9.32 per cent to N1.29.
On the flip side, VFD Group led the laggards’ gang after it gave up 10.00 per cent to close at N11.25, Royal Exchange shed 9.63 per cent to settle at N1.69, Omatek depreciated by 9.62 per cent to N2.35, Sovereign Trust Insurance lost 9.00 per cent to quote at N1.92, and Regency Alliance slipped by 8.94 per cent to N1.12.
Yesterday, a total of 948.2 million stocks valued at N49.2 billion were traded in 72,735 deals compared with 591.0 million stocks worth N35.0 billion transacted in 53,066 deals in the preceding session, representing an improvement in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 60.44 per cent, 40.57 per cent, and 37.07 per cent apiece.
The activity log was led by Sovereign Trust Insurance, which traded 72.6 million equities valued at N147.1 million, Access Holdings sold 69.9 million shares for N1.8 billion, First Holdco exchanged 67.0 million stocks worth N3.4 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 60.0 million equities valued at N6.0 billion, and Nigerian Breweries exchanged 55.0 million shares worth N4.0 billion.
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