Economy
IMF Retains 3.2% GDP Growth Forecast for Nigeria Amid Shaky Global Recovery
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.2 per cent in 2023 in its recent world economic outlook update, retaining its forecast from January.
In the World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery (2023 Apr), the IMF raised the country’s 2024 economic growth projection to 3.0 per cent from 2.9 per cent in its January update.
According to the Washington-based lender, global economic growth is expected to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent in 2023.
It said, “The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent in 2023 before settling at 3.0 per cent in 2024.”
Recall that the World Bank, in its recent African Pulse report, expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 2.8 per cent amid weakening performances in non-oil activity as well as a slow uptick in the country’s oil production while rising inflation and a weak Naira persist.
The IMF report noted that the global economy appears poised for a gradual recovery from the powerful blows of the pandemic and of Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine. China is rebounding strongly following the reopening of its economy just as supply-chain disruptions are unwinding, while the dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding.
The lender noted that the tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back toward its targets.
“In our latest forecast, global growth will bottom out at 2.8 per cent this year before rising modestly to 3.0 per cent in 2024,” it noted.
The report showed that global inflation will decrease, although more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 7.0 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024.
Notably, emerging markets and developing economies are already powering ahead in many cases, with growth rates (fourth quarter over fourth quarter) jumping from 2.8 per cent in 2022 to 4.5 per cent this year.
“The slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the Euro area and the United Kingdom, where growth (also fourth quarter over fourth quarter) is expected to fall to 0.7 per cent and –0.4 per cent, respectively, this year before rebounding to 1.8 and 2.0 per cent in 2024.”
IMF, however, warned that the recent banking crisis in the US painted a picture that anything could happen in the global economy.
“Below the surface, however, turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us. Inflation is much stickier than anticipated, even a few months ago.
“While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.
“It is expected to decline to 5.1 per cent this year (fourth quarter over fourth quarter), a sizable upward revision of 0.6 percentage point from our January update, well above target,” the report seen by Business Post showed.
Economy
Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.
According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.
The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.
The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.
The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.
The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.
The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are often opaque and complex.
“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.
Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.
The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.
Economy
Nigeria Needs More Taxpayers, Not Higher Taxes—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, yesterday clarified that the federal government is not increasing taxes but making efforts to raise the tax net.
Mr Oyedele made this remark on Thursday while receiving a delegation from the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN) at his office in Abuja.
He hailed the institute for introducing a National Tax Awareness Day and for supporting the current tax reforms of the federal government.
The minister charged the institute to double its effort in public enlightenment, stressing that many Nigerians still view taxation as a means for the government to take money from citizens.
He reiterated that the priority of the government is not to increase tax rates but to broaden the tax base by ensuring that all eligible taxpayers meet their obligations.
“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes.
“It is not about increasing taxes but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he said.
Nigeria is challenged by the inability to generate adequate revenue from taxation despite ongoing reforms, stressing that a significant number of eligible taxpayers have yet to fulfil their civic obligations.
He said the challenge facing the country was not necessarily about raising tax rates but ensuring that individuals and businesses that ought to pay taxes do so in a fair and transparent system.
The minister also commended the institute for supporting the federal government’s tax reform agenda and promoting public understanding of taxation, but urged it to intensify its advocacy efforts, noting that many Nigerians still harbour misconceptions about taxation.
According to him, many citizens continue to view taxation merely as a tool for the government to take money from the people rather than as a critical instrument for national development.
“We are still not getting enough revenue from taxes. It is not about increasing taxes, but making sure that those who are supposed to pay taxes. We want to promote fairness in tax administration,” he added.
Mr Oyedele stressed that if Nigeria succeeds in building an efficient and equitable tax system, the impact on infrastructure, public services and economic development would be transformative, challenging the institute to introduce annual awards for the country’s most tax-compliant individuals and organisations as a means of encouraging voluntary compliance and recognising responsible taxpayers.
Economy
Akara, Kulikuli, Roasted Corn Business Not Capital Intensive—Remi Tinubu
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s First Lady, Mrs Oluremi Tinubu, has given Nigerians business advice that may not involve a lot of money to start.
Speaking with newsmen recently, the wife of President Bola Tinubu said businesses like akara (fried bean cake), kulikuli (a crunchy snack from roasted peanuts or groundnuts) and roasted corn can be set up without breaking the bank.
She disclosed that to support her husband’s Renewed Hope agenda, she has provided funding packages to traders and others to the tune of N3.5 billion.
“To start akara business doesn’t take a lot of money. To start roasting corn and kuli-kuli doesn’t take much. We didn’t give them a loan; we gave it to them as a grant,” she stated.
She further said, “We’ve encouraged Nigerians as best as we could, what is within our hands, I have given, and I keep giving. Those are the things we’ve done.”
“I remember giving for TB (tuberculosis) when I heard of many TB cases; I gave N2 billion, to breast cancer, I gave N1 billion, and to [tackle] malnutrition, I gave N500 million.
“These are the things we’ve been doing to assist the government. So, we’ve had impact in agriculture, social investment, education (as scholarship and ICT training) and others. We are still open to doing more,” she disclosed.
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