Economy
IMF Retains 2.9% GDP Growth Forecast for Nigeria in 2024, 3.2% in 2025
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has predicted that growth in Nigeria will remain unchanged at 2.9 per cent this year and 3.2 per cent in 2025 due to weaker-than-expected activity in the first half of the year.
This is as the wider Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which includes Nigeria, will remain unchanged at 3.6 per cent this year, rising to 4.2 per cent in 2025 as weather shocks abate and supply constraints ease.
In its new World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the Bretton Wood institution also estimates that global growth is expected to ease slightly to 3.2 per cent this year and remain at that level in 2025.
The report noted that global inflation will continue to ease, hitting 5.8 per cent this year, before falling further to 4.3 per cent in 2025.
The report finds that the United States has remained an engine of global growth — in sharp contrast with the euro area, where expansion remains slow.
The world’s largest economy is now expected to grow by 2.8 per cent this year, down ever-so-slightly from the 2.9 per cent seen in 2023, but still a shade better than the Fund’s previous estimate in July.
It is then expected to ease somewhat to 2.2 per cent in 2025 — up 0.3 percentage points from July — as fiscal policy is “gradually tightened and a cooling labour market slows consumption,” the IMF said.
In Europe, growth is still trending higher but remains low by historical standards, and is on track to be at 0.8 per cent this year, rising slightly to 1.2 per cent in 2025.
While France and Spain saw upgrades in their outlook for 2024, the IMF cut its projections for German growth by 0.2 percentage points this year, and by half a percentage point next year, citing its “persistent weakness in manufacturing.”
In the United Kingdom, the IMF says growth is projected to accelerate in both 2024 and 2025, “as falling inflation and interest rates stimulate domestic demand.”
Growth in Japan is expected to slow sharply to just 0.3 per cent this year, before accelerating to 1.1 per cent next year boosted by private consumption as real wage growth strengthens, according to the IMF.
The lender expects the growth in economic output in China to continue to cool, easing from 5.2 per cent last year to 4.8 per cent this year, and then falling further to 4.5 per cent in 2025.
“Despite persisting weakness in the real estate sector and low consumer confidence, growth is projected to have slowed only marginally,” the IMF said, pointing to better-than-expected net exports from the world’s second-largest economy.
The slowdown in India was put at a growth of 7.0 per cent this year, down from 8.2 per cent in 2023.
The IMF expects growth in the Middle East and Central Asia to pick up slightly to 2.4 per cent this year, before jumping to 3.9 per cent in 2025 as the temporary effect of oil and shipping disruptions fade.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited recorded its first loss in nine consecutive sessions after it finished in the red territory on Friday by 0.12 per cent.
This decline suffered by Customs Street was caused by profit-taking in the industrial goods sectors, which tumbled by 0.31 per cent at the close of trading activities.
It upturned the gains recorded by the other sectors, as the banking space grew by 1.66 per cent, the insurance counter expanded by 1.05 per cent, the consumer goods index appreciated by 1.03 per cent, and the energy sector gained 0.31 per cent.
When the market ended for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 118.93 points to 101,129.09 points from 101,248.02 points and the market capitalisation shrank by N72 billion to N61.303 trillion from N61.375 trillion it ended a day earlier.
Despite the poor performance, investor sentiment was bullish as the bourse finished with 39 price gainers and 15 price losers, representing a positive market breadth index.
Multiverse lost 9.80 per cent to trade at N4.60, Aradel Holdings tumbled by 9.09 per cent to N664.00, International Energy Insurance slumped by 8.13 per cent to N1.47, Coronation Insurance declined by 4.49 per cent to N1.70, and Nigerian Breweries moderated by 3.33 per cent to N29.00.
On the flip side, UAC Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to close at N30.25, Honeywell Flour also increased by 10.00 per cent to N6.05, Universal Insurance jumped by 10.00 per cent to 44 Kobo, Learn Africa rose by 9.92 per cent to N3.88, and NAHCO improved by 9.89 per cent to N46.10.
During the session, investors transacted 515.6 million shares valued at N16.5 billion in 11,554 deals compared with the previous day’s 411.4 million shares worth N26.3 billion traded in 10,260 deals a day earlier, indicating a decline in the trading value by 37.26 per cent, and growth in the trading volume and number of deals by 25.33 per cent and 12.61 per cent, respectively.
Zenith Bank was the most traded stock for the session with 60.4 million units valued at N2.7 billion, UBA exchanged 43.5 million units worth N1.5 billion, Sterling Holdings sold 43.3 million units for N216.3 million, Universal Insurance transacted 28.3 million units valued at N12.4 million, and GTCO traded 23.5 million units worth N1.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange grew by 0.87 per cent on Friday, December 20, spurred by Okitipupa Plc and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc.
During the session, the market capitalisation of the trading platform added N8.98 billion to settle at N1.043 trillion compared with the preceding day’s value of N1.034 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) ended the day at 3,043.27 points after adding 26.20 points to the previous day’s closing value of 3,017.07 points.
Yesterday, the price of Okitipupa Plc went up by N2.98 to close at N32.72 per unit compared with Thursday’s closing price of N29.74 per unit and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc increased by N3.84 to wrap the session at N43.84 per share versus the preceding day’s N40.00 per share.
Business Post reports that the volume of securities traded at the bourse by investors on the last trading day of the week went up by 182.1 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 419,682 units recorded a day earlier.
In the same vein, the value of shares traded yesterday increased by 2,089.4 per cent to N51.2 million from the N2.3 million achieved in the preceding session, and the number of deals went down by 45.5 per cent to 12 deals from the 22 deals carried out in the previous session.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with a turnover of 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc occupied the second spot with 752.3 million units sold for N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in the third position with the sale of 297.7 million units worth N5.3 million.
Also, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with the sale of 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.3 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third with 297.7 million units sold for N5.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira suffered a marginal decline against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, December 20 by 0.02 per cent or 30 Kobo to settle at N1,541.68/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,541.38/$1.
This marginal slide came as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) moved to alleviate some pressure by allowing Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators to access the official market for a period of 50 days.
The CBN in a notice on Friday said BDC operators would have access to FX at the official market from December 19, 2024, to January 30, 2025, with a weekly cap of $25,000, with transactions requiring upfront funding at prevailing rates and must follow a maximum of 1 per cent spread.
This development trails the launch of the CBN-backed Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) which began operations earlier this month and has led to a rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system is expected to instantly reflect data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN, giving traders real-time prices and buy-sell orders data.
But against the British Pound Sterling, the domestic currency appreciated yesterday by N6.46 to trade at N1,929.77/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,936.23/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency depreciated by N60.21 to quote at N1,597.64/€1 versus N1,537.43/€1.
In the parallel market, the Naira maintained stability against the greenback during the trading session at N1,650/$1.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it was bullish on Friday after a hawkish tone in this week’s FOMC meeting flipped market sentiment ahead of the new year.
The positive outcome came as inflation slowed in the US and offered respite to the market, with Cardano (ADA) growing by 9.3 per cent to trade at $0.9825, as Dogecoin (DOGE) grew by 8.2 per cent to sell at $0.3463, and Ethereum (ETH) gained 4.1 per cent to settle at $3,535.49.
Further, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 3.9 per cent to $104.94, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.3 per cent to $199.76, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.2 per cent to $690.84, Ripple (XRP) surged by 1.9 per cent to $2.36, and Bitcoin (BTC) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $98,654.80, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
-
Feature/OPED5 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism8 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz2 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking6 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy2 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking2 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports2 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn
-
Technology4 years agoHow To Link Your MTN, Airtel, Glo, 9mobile Lines to NIN
Pingback: IMF Forecasts Nigeria's Inflation Cooling to 25% in 2025 | Business Post Nigeria