Economy
IMF Says Nigeria’s GDP to Shrink 5.4% in 2020
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest forecast has downgraded expectations for the Nigerian economy for the 2020 fiscal year.
The Bretton Wood institution said in its reports that it expects Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to shrink by 5.4 percent this year.
According to the global lender, this expected economic contraction is in light of recent challenges brought about by the coronavirus pandemic.
The fund had in April projected a 3.4 percent decline in Nigeria’s GDP, but an assessment of economic trends associated with the pandemic compelled it to review its earlier position.
The global financial institution said the economy will experience a recovery of 2.6 percent in 2021, a slight improvement compared to the 2.4 percent April projection for 2021.
In its presentation on Wednesday, following the release of the June 2020 World Economic Outlook, the IMF further disclosed that the global economy in 2020 and 2021 would further contract by 4.9 percent and 3 percent respectively.
The forecast represents a downgrade from its April projection of 3 percent contraction in 2020 and a recovery of 2.2 percent in 2021, adding that it will bring about a cumulative loss of total output for the global economy this year and next year to around $12 trillion.
It said, “Compared to our April World Economic Outlook forecast, we are now projecting a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021.
“We are projecting a synchronised deep downturn in 2020 for both advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies.
“The COVID-19 pandemic has had a more negative impact on activity in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and the recovery is projected to be more gradual than previously forecast.”
The pandemic has had more negative impact on activities in the first half of 2020 than anticipated and recovery is projected to be slower than previously forecast, the IMF said in the June 2020 Outlook.
“We are definitely not out of the woods,” Chief Economist and director of IMF’s research department, Ms Gita Gopinath said. “This is a crisis like no other and will have a recovery like no other.”
The IMF warned that the adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, setting back the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.
The world is facing the worst downturn since the Great Depression, but the depth and duration of the economic collapse are not expected to be as severe, given the strength of the economy going into the crisis and the relative stability of the financial system.
However, as with earlier projections, there is a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around this forecast, the IMF said.
Across the world, countries are experiencing surges in new cases, complicating plans to reopen their economies. Even with some businesses resuming, voluntary social distancing and workplace safety standards are weighing on economic activity, the fund notes.
The global lender explained that any improvement moving forward will largely depend on the development of a vaccine or cure for the coronavirus disease or whether future waves create the need for additional lockdowns.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian capital market will transition to a T+1 settlement cycle from May 29, as part of efforts to enhance efficiency and align with global standards, the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc said in a notice.
If this is achieved, it would be about six months after the Nigerian central depository, clearing, and settlement agent switched to a T+2 settlement cycle from the previous T+3 cycle. The previous transitioning was precisely on November 28, 2025.
This switch will shorten the settlement period for trades, allowing transactions to be completed one business day after the execution date, instead of the current two-day cycle.
CSCS Plc, in the disclosure, said the move represents the next phase in the development of Nigeria’s capital market infrastructure.
It stated that the new settlement cycle is expected to improve post-trade efficiency, reduce settlement risk and speed up the movement of securities and funds across the capital market.
The company added that trades executed on Thursday, May 28, the final trading day under the T+2 cycle, and those executed on Friday, May 29, the first trading day under the T+1 cycle, would both settle on Monday, June 1.
“This transition requires coordinated readiness across all market participants, including exchanges, brokers, custodians, registrars, settlement banks and institutional investors.
“Industry-wide engagements and technical readiness initiatives are ongoing to ensure a seamless transition.
“All market participants are encouraged to review their internal processes, systems and operational workflows to ensure alignment with the new settlement framework,” the company stated.
After the T+2 settlement cycle went live last year, the erstwhile chief executive of the company, Mr Haruna Jalo-Waziri, at the time said CSCS Plc is already preparing to shift to a T+1 settlement cycle by mid-2026.
Mr Kalo-Waziri, who has since been replaced by Mr Shehu Yahaya Shantali, said the organisation had been strengthening its capacity over time, ensuring that the eventual migration would be efficient, stable, and cost-effective, stressing that the transition aligns with global best practices and reflects the market’s readiness for faster, more reliable settlement processes.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Geo-Fluids Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.12 per cent on Monday, March 16.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N1.45 during the session to sell at N123.55 per share versus the previous price of N125.00 per share, and Geo Fluids Plc depreciated by 5 Kobo to N3.05 per unit from N3.10 per unit.
The losses recorded by the two securities lowered the market capitalisation by N8.88 billion to N2.480 trillion from N2.489 trillion, and crashed the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 14.86 points to 4,145.60 points from 4,160.46 points.
On the first trading day of the week, the value of securities transacted by investors went up by 10.8 per cent to N33.2 million from N29.9 million, but the volume of securities dipped 97.5 per cent to 265,610 units from 10.4 million units, and the number of deals decreased by 43.5 per cent to 26 deals from 46 deals.
At the close of trades, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.6 million units sold for N2.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 6.4 million units traded for N1.2 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 6.5 million units worth N609.6 million.
Resourcery Plc closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units transacted for N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.6 million units exchanged for N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the week stronger against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, March 16, by N8.46 or 0.62 per cent to trade at N1,357.77/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,366.23/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N23.45 to quote at N1,789.54/£1 compared with last Friday’s value of N1,812.99/£1, and improved its value against the Euro by N9.72 to N1,558.31/€1 from N1,568.03/€1.
Similarly, the Naira gained N5 against the greenback in the parallel market during the trading session to sell for N1,395/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,400/$1, and closed flat at the GTBank FX desk at N1,385/$1.
The pressure that piled on the domestic currency appeared to have eased, buoyed by higher oil prices, which have continued to bolster market sentiment.
A report by Coronation Merchant Bank Research said Brent crude prices advanced by 11.16 per cent week-on-week, rising from $91.00 per barrel to close at $101.16 per barrel amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The bank noted that developments in the region heightened concerns about potential disruptions to global oil supply, increasing volatility in energy markets.
Nigeria recorded modest portfolio inflows as investors sought higher-yielding opportunities, but the inflows helped support liquidity in the FX market and contributed to the Naira’s recovery during the past week.
Also, Nigeria’s inflation cooled to 15.06 per cent in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January 2026, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed.
As for the cryptocurrency market, prices continued to weigh the tensions around the Strait of Hormuz — a critical oil shipping route between the Persian Gulf and global markets — appeared to ease slightly.
US President Donald Trump called on other nations to help secure the waterway, while some tankers reportedly have crossed the Strait, suggesting that traffic through the corridor has not been fully disrupted.
This weakened some coins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), which slumped by 1.7 per cent to $0.0998, and Cardano (ADA), which depreciated 1.6 per cent to $0.2832. Binance Coin (BNB) lost 1.5 per cent to sell for $674.25, TRON (TRX) declined by 0.6 per cent to $0.2964, and Solana (SOL) dropped 0.2 per cent to $93.66.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped 2.2 per cent to $1.51, Ethereum (ETH) grew by 1.5 per cent to $2,302.08, and Bitcoin (BTC) appreciated by 0.1 per cent to $73,951.40, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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