Economy
Impact of Nigeria-South Africa Trade on NGN and ZAR Exchange Rates

Nigeria and South Africa are two of the largest economies in Africa. Their trade interactions hold a significant influence on the continent’s economic landscape. Notably, their bilateral trade relationship greatly impacts their respective currencies, the Nigerian Naira (NGN) and the South African Rand (ZAR). In this article, we will explore the impact of the Nigeria-South Africa trade on the NGN and ZAR exchange rates. Let’s jump in.
A Brief Look at the Trade Relations Between Nigeria and South Africa
Trade between Nigeria and South Africa has evolved significantly over the past few decades. Historically, Nigeria’s economy has been heavily reliant on oil exports, which account for a substantial portion of its GDP and foreign exchange earnings. Understandably, Nigeria is one of South Africa’s key suppliers of crude oil. In contrast, South Africa’s economy is more diversified, with strong mining, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. South Africa exports manufactured goods and fruits to Nigeria.
Historically, trade volume has been skewed in favour of South Africa due to the diversity of its exports. However, Nigeria’s oil exports are significant in value and the trade volume is turning in favour of Nigeria. In 2022, Nigeria exported $1.72 billion to South Africa, while South Africa only exported $447 million to Nigeria. Notably, this is one of the biggest factors that impacts the exchange rate between the Naira and the Rand. Let’s take a look at other exchange rate dynamics between the Naira and the Rand.
Exchange Rate Dynamics Between NGN and ZAR
Exchange rates are influenced by a variety of factors. For Nigeria and South Africa, bilateral trade plays a crucial role in influencing the exchange rates of NGN and ZAR. Here is a brief look at how this works.
Trade Balance and Currency Valuation
The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports. It directly impacts the demand and supply of currencies. A trade surplus, where exports exceed imports, leads to higher demand for the exporting country’s currency, thereby appreciating its value. Conversely, a trade deficit can depreciate the currency.
In the context of Nigeria-South Africa trade, Nigeria currently experiences a trade surplus due to its oil exports to South Africa. This surplus increases demand for the Naira, contributing to its appreciation. On the other hand, South Africa’s importation of Nigerian oil increases the supply of Rands in exchange for Naira. This potentially leads to a depreciation of the Rand.
Currency Valuation Policies
Monetary policies set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) are critical in managing exchange rates. Their central banks intervene in the market to maintain some degree of control over currency fluctuations. Different monetary policies can influence currency values. For instance, if the CBN adopts a tighter monetary policy compared to the SARB, it could lead to higher interest rates in Nigeria. This can attract foreign capital and lead to an appreciation of the Naira.
Commodity Prices
Nigeria is a major oil exporter, and fluctuations in global oil prices can significantly impact its economy and currency. Higher oil prices tend to strengthen the Naira due to increased export revenues. On the other hand, South Africa is a major exporter of gold and other minerals. The prices of these commodities can influence the Rand. Higher gold prices usually strengthen the Rand.
Political and Economic Events
Political stability and significant economic events in Nigeria and South Africa have a direct bearing on their currencies. Elections, policy changes, and economic reforms can lead to fluctuations in the NGN and ZAR exchange rates. For example, political instability, corruption, and militant activities in oil-producing regions have historically affected investor confidence in Nigeria.
On the other hand, economic challenges, such as power shortages and high unemployment, also affect investor confidence in South Africa. Positive developments, such as successful economic reforms and political stability, can enhance the value of the Rand.
Beyond Bilateral Trade: External Factors
Several external factors can also influence the NGN and ZAR exchange rates beyond the Nigeria-South Africa trade. Here is a brief look at some of these factors:
- Speculative Trading – Currency markets are influenced by traders’ expectations about future movements in exchange rates. Both in Nigeria and South Africa, traders are always exchanging currencies and pushing their value. Notably, brokers with low ZAR minimum deposits and low NGN deposits are popular in these countries.
- Global Economic Conditions – A strong global economy can lead to increased demand for South African manufactured goods, boosting the Rand. Conversely, a global slowdown can have a negative impact.
- Foreign Investment Flows – Foreign investments in Nigeria’s oil sector can strengthen the NGN. Similarly, foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Africa can influence the Rand’s value.
- Market Sentiment – Sentiment about economic prospects in Nigeria and South Africa affects investor behaviour. Positive sentiment, driven by factors such as economic reforms or favourable economic data, can attract investment and strengthen currencies. Conversely, negative sentiment can lead to capital flight and currency depreciation.
Conclusion
Nigeria-South Africa trade presents a multifaceted relationship impacting their exchange rates. For Nigeria, oil exports remain a dominant force influencing the Naira, while South Africa’s diversified economy provides a broader base for the Rand. While the trade structure creates a demand-driven influence, external factors and policy interventions play a crucial role. Nigeria and South Africa will continue to strengthen their trade ties and each will navigate the complexities of the global economy. Either way, their exchange rates will remain sensitive to a multitude of factors.
Economy
FAAC Disbursement for April 2025 Drops to N1.578trn

By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The amount shared by the federal government, the 36 state governments and the 774 local government areas of the federation from the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) in April 2025 from the revenue generated last month declined by N100 billion, Business Post reports.
This month, FAAC disbursed about N1.578 trillion to the three tiers of government, lower than the N1.678 billion distributed in March 2025.
In a communiqué by the Director of Press and Public Relations in the Office of the Accountant-General of the Federation (OAGF), Bawa Mokwa, it was stated that the N1.578 trillion comprised statutory revenue of N931.325 billion, Value Added Tax (VAT) revenue of N593.750 billion, Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) revenue of N24.971 billion, and an Exchange Difference revenue of N28.711 billion.
The money was shared after deducting N85.376 billion as cost of collection and N747.180 billion as total transfers, interventions and refunds from the total gross revenue of N2.411 trillion generated by the nation last month.
It was explained that gross statutory revenue of N1.718 trillion was received for March 2025 versus N1.653 trillion received in February 2025, and gross revenue of N637.618 billion was available from VAT compared with N654.456 billion a month earlier.
As for the distribution of the N1.578 trillion, FAAC said it gave the federal government N528.696 billion, the states N530.448 billion, the local councils N387.002 billion, and the benefiting states N132.611 billion as 13 per cent of mineral revenue.
It disclosed that on the N931.325 billion statutory revenue, the federal government received N422.485 billion, the state governments got N214.290 billion, the LGAs were given N165.209 billion, and the oil-producing states went away with N129.341 billion.
Further, from the N593.750 billion VAT revenue, the national government got N89.063 billion, the state governments received N296.875 billion, and the local councils got N207.813 billion.
In addition, from the N24.971 billion EMTL, the central government was given N3.746 billion, the state governments got N12.485 billion, and LGAs shared N8.740 billion.
Economy
Nigeria, South Africa Sign Agreement to Boost Mining

By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria and South Africa have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to boost mining cooperation, focusing on investment, knowledge exchange, and technology transfer.
The agreement was signed in Abuja by the Solid Minerals Development Minister, Mr Dele Alake, and South Africa’s Mineral Resources, Mr Gwede Mantashe.
A statement on Wednesday said the MoU was part of efforts to strengthen ties under the Nigeria–South Africa Bi-National Commission framework.
It noted that the deal sets out specific areas of collaboration alongside defined implementation timelines for joint activities and engagements in the mining sector.
“Both ministers pledged ongoing engagement to advance intra-African trade and implement practical steps outlined in the agreement,” it said.
The ministers also expressed optimism that the renewed partnership would significantly strengthen the mining industries of both countries through shared expertise and innovation.
Key highlights include capacity building in geological methods using UAVs and applying spectral remote sensing technologies for mineral exploration and mapping.
Other areas cover geoscientific data sharing via the Nigeria Geological Survey Agency, training in mineral processing, and value-addition initiatives.
The MoU also supports capacity building in elemental fingerprinting with LA-ICP-MS and joint exploration of agro and energy minerals within Nigeria.
Mr Alake restated that bilateral cooperation holds promise for industrialisation, employment generation, and sustainable economic development across the African continent.
“The agreement on geology, mining, and mineral processing will foster knowledge exchange, promote investment, and encourage regional integration,” Mr Alake stated.
He reiterated Nigeria’s focus on developing its mining sector, noting mutual benefits through mineral wealth and South Africa’s technological expertise.
According to Mr Alake, this synergy will attract investments, build skills, and help diversify Nigeria’s economy for long-term growth and stability.
Mr Mantashe, on his part lauded the agreement, noting that it will be crucial to South Africa, as well as promote cooperation between the two African nations.
Economy
ARM-Harith Secures £10m to Unlock Nigerian Pension Funds

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
About £10 million has been injected into ARM-Harith’s Climate and Transition Infrastructure Fund (ACT Fund) to unlock local institutional capital for climate infrastructure.
The leading African private equity firm received the financial support from the United Kingdom-backed FSD Africa Investments (FSDAi) to unlock nigerian pension funds and catalyse local capital for infrastructure.
It was gathered that 75 per cent of the FSDAi facility would be provided in local currency, a first-of-its- kind approach specifically designed to mitigate the impact of foreign exchange (FX) volatility for pension funds.
This structure is expected to unlock an additional £31 million in pension fund contributions, nearly five times the participation achieved in ARM- Harith’s first fund.
The investment from ARM-Harith and FSDAi introduces an innovative solution to allow Nigerian pension funds to address a longstanding challenge in infrastructure equity finance: the ability to invest while receiving early liquidity.
By enabling predictable interim distributions during the early phases of investment, this innovative facility directly addresses a key barrier that has historically deterred domestic institutional capital from entering the asset class.
“For too long, domestic pension funds have remained on the sidelines of infrastructure equity due to liquidity constraints and heightened perception of risk.
“We are proud to have collaborated with FSDAi to design a pioneering solution that reduces risk for pension funds while delivering both early liquidity and long-term capital growth.
“This is a global first—a groundbreaking private sector-led solution that could fundamentally change how infrastructure equity is financed—not just in Nigeria, but across Africa,” the chief executive of ARM-Harith, Ms Rachel Moré-Oshodi, said.
Also, the Chief Investment Officer of FSDAi, Ms Anne-Marie Chidzero, said, “We are thrilled to collaborate with ARM-Harith to showcase how risk- bearing capital from a market-building investor like FSDAi can be strategically structured to unlock domestic institutional capital. This approach strengthens Africa’s financial markets and facilitates capital allocation towards sustainable, green economic growth across the continent.”
On his part, the British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, Mr Jonny Baxter, said, “The UK government, through its bilateral and investment vehicles is committed to continue to support the country’s financial sector — developing domestic capital markets as a means of financing priority sectors and driving economic development.
“Local currency capital helps mitigate the impact of foreign exchange volatility, narrows the financing gap, supports diversification into new asset classes and into climate- related projects and social sectors – while providing long-term funds to growing businesses.”
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