Economy
Impact of Nigeria-South Africa Trade on NGN and ZAR Exchange Rates
Nigeria and South Africa are two of the largest economies in Africa. Their trade interactions hold a significant influence on the continent’s economic landscape. Notably, their bilateral trade relationship greatly impacts their respective currencies, the Nigerian Naira (NGN) and the South African Rand (ZAR). In this article, we will explore the impact of the Nigeria-South Africa trade on the NGN and ZAR exchange rates. Let’s jump in.
A Brief Look at the Trade Relations Between Nigeria and South Africa
Trade between Nigeria and South Africa has evolved significantly over the past few decades. Historically, Nigeria’s economy has been heavily reliant on oil exports, which account for a substantial portion of its GDP and foreign exchange earnings. Understandably, Nigeria is one of South Africa’s key suppliers of crude oil. In contrast, South Africa’s economy is more diversified, with strong mining, manufacturing, and agricultural sectors. South Africa exports manufactured goods and fruits to Nigeria.
Historically, trade volume has been skewed in favour of South Africa due to the diversity of its exports. However, Nigeria’s oil exports are significant in value and the trade volume is turning in favour of Nigeria. In 2022, Nigeria exported $1.72 billion to South Africa, while South Africa only exported $447 million to Nigeria. Notably, this is one of the biggest factors that impacts the exchange rate between the Naira and the Rand. Let’s take a look at other exchange rate dynamics between the Naira and the Rand.
Exchange Rate Dynamics Between NGN and ZAR
Exchange rates are influenced by a variety of factors. For Nigeria and South Africa, bilateral trade plays a crucial role in influencing the exchange rates of NGN and ZAR. Here is a brief look at how this works.
Trade Balance and Currency Valuation
The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports. It directly impacts the demand and supply of currencies. A trade surplus, where exports exceed imports, leads to higher demand for the exporting country’s currency, thereby appreciating its value. Conversely, a trade deficit can depreciate the currency.
In the context of Nigeria-South Africa trade, Nigeria currently experiences a trade surplus due to its oil exports to South Africa. This surplus increases demand for the Naira, contributing to its appreciation. On the other hand, South Africa’s importation of Nigerian oil increases the supply of Rands in exchange for Naira. This potentially leads to a depreciation of the Rand.
Currency Valuation Policies
Monetary policies set by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) are critical in managing exchange rates. Their central banks intervene in the market to maintain some degree of control over currency fluctuations. Different monetary policies can influence currency values. For instance, if the CBN adopts a tighter monetary policy compared to the SARB, it could lead to higher interest rates in Nigeria. This can attract foreign capital and lead to an appreciation of the Naira.
Commodity Prices
Nigeria is a major oil exporter, and fluctuations in global oil prices can significantly impact its economy and currency. Higher oil prices tend to strengthen the Naira due to increased export revenues. On the other hand, South Africa is a major exporter of gold and other minerals. The prices of these commodities can influence the Rand. Higher gold prices usually strengthen the Rand.
Political and Economic Events
Political stability and significant economic events in Nigeria and South Africa have a direct bearing on their currencies. Elections, policy changes, and economic reforms can lead to fluctuations in the NGN and ZAR exchange rates. For example, political instability, corruption, and militant activities in oil-producing regions have historically affected investor confidence in Nigeria.
On the other hand, economic challenges, such as power shortages and high unemployment, also affect investor confidence in South Africa. Positive developments, such as successful economic reforms and political stability, can enhance the value of the Rand.
Beyond Bilateral Trade: External Factors
Several external factors can also influence the NGN and ZAR exchange rates beyond the Nigeria-South Africa trade. Here is a brief look at some of these factors:
- Speculative Trading – Currency markets are influenced by traders’ expectations about future movements in exchange rates. Both in Nigeria and South Africa, traders are always exchanging currencies and pushing their value. Notably, brokers with low ZAR minimum deposits and low NGN deposits are popular in these countries.
- Global Economic Conditions – A strong global economy can lead to increased demand for South African manufactured goods, boosting the Rand. Conversely, a global slowdown can have a negative impact.
- Foreign Investment Flows – Foreign investments in Nigeria’s oil sector can strengthen the NGN. Similarly, foreign direct investment (FDI) in South Africa can influence the Rand’s value.
- Market Sentiment – Sentiment about economic prospects in Nigeria and South Africa affects investor behaviour. Positive sentiment, driven by factors such as economic reforms or favourable economic data, can attract investment and strengthen currencies. Conversely, negative sentiment can lead to capital flight and currency depreciation.
Conclusion
Nigeria-South Africa trade presents a multifaceted relationship impacting their exchange rates. For Nigeria, oil exports remain a dominant force influencing the Naira, while South Africa’s diversified economy provides a broader base for the Rand. While the trade structure creates a demand-driven influence, external factors and policy interventions play a crucial role. Nigeria and South Africa will continue to strengthen their trade ties and each will navigate the complexities of the global economy. Either way, their exchange rates will remain sensitive to a multitude of factors.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
To unlock the trade and investment opportunities in West Africa, efforts must be made to build a regional coalition, the chairman of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, has submitted.
Speaking at the inaugural West Africa Economic Summit (WAES) 2025, the NGX Group chief tasked stakeholders to harness the untapped potential of the region’s trade and commodity markets.
According to him, capital markets and commodity exchanges can transform West Africa’s abundant natural resources into organized, transparent capital that fuels industrialization and inclusive economic growth.
Delivering remarks during a high-level panel on Commodities as Capital: Regional Commodities Exchange and Reserves, Mr Kwairanga noted that despite West Africa’s wealth of raw materials, it continues to face a paradox of resource abundance coexisting with capital scarcity.
“As a nation and region, we are abundantly rich in raw materials, but often poor in capital outcomes. This paradox is not due to lack of resources, but due to the way these resources have historically been excluded from structured financial ecosystems.
“Commodities, whether agricultural, mineral, or energy, must be seen not just as tradeable goods, but as investable assets capable of powering industrialization, job creation, and macroeconomic stability,” he said at the event themed Unlocking Trade and Investment Opportunities in the Region.
Mr Kwairanga emphasized NGX Group’s commitment to building resilient market infrastructure that supports price discovery, clearing, settlement, and investor protection, systems that can underpin thriving regional commodity markets.
He highlighted NGX Group’s role in mobilizing capital for commodity value chains through IPOs, bonds, and structured funds, citing the success of NGX-listed companies like Presco and Okomu Oil as models for attracting long-term investment.
On the question of regional versus national commodity exchanges, Mr Kwairanga advocated a dual approach that combines the strengths of national platforms with the scale and integration benefits of regional frameworks.
“National exchanges address local needs and build depth, but for West Africa to unlock the full potential of commodity trade, we must connect these markets under a regional structure.
“Regulatory harmonization will be key and this is where NGX Group’s experience in governance, coupled with platforms like the African Exchanges Linkage Project and the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, can help align standards and enable seamless cross-border transactions,” he stated.
Addressing liquidity challenges, the chairman outlined the need for harmonized rules, trustworthy infrastructure, product innovation, and incentives to drive participation, calling for public-private partnerships and regional integration to deepen market liquidity and ensure efficient price discovery.
Beyond the panel discussions, Mr Kwairanga commended the vision of President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria and the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mr Yusuf Tuggar, for spearheading the summit.
“There is power in unity and prestige in size. The great economic powerhouses of the 21st century, such as the United States and China have risen to prominence partly because of the scale of their markets. A united West Africa can achieve the same if we work together on initiatives like this,” he said, expressing optimism that the summit would produce actionable frameworks to reduce trade barriers, encourage regional investment, and fast-track economic growth across ECOWAS.
NGX Group, he added, remains committed to supporting cross-border investments, citing its participation in the African Exchanges Linkage Project and the increasing regional footprint of NGX-listed companies such as Dangote Cement, First Bank, Zenith Bank, Access Bank, and Ecobank.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a decline of 0.61 per cent in the 25th trading week of 2025, with the benchmark index, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI), going down by 20.31 points to 3,320.91 points from the 3,341.22 points posted in Week 24.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation, which captures the total value of stocks on the platform, went down by N20 billion to N1.94 trillion from the N1.96 trillion recorded in the preceding week.
Business Post reports that there were eight price gainers and three price losers in the five-day trading week, led by Okitipupa Oil Palm Plc, which fell by 9.50 per cent to close at N219.00 per unit versus the preceding week’s N242.00 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc lost 2.78 per cent to trade at N29.00 per share versus N29.43 per cent share of the earlier week, and Friesland Campina Wamco Nigeria Plc shed 2.06 per cent to trade at N69.38 per unit compared with the preceding week’s N70.84 per unit.
On the flip side, Geo-Fluids Plc gained 9.87 per cent to finish at N4.23 per share versus N3.85 per share. Air Liquide Plc appreciated by 9.80 per cent to N9.97 per unit versus N9.08, AG Mortgage Bank Plc rose by 9.21 per cent to N83 Kobo per share from 76 Kobo per share, FirstTrust Mortgage Bank Plc improved by 8.62 per cent to 63 Kobo per unit from 58 Kobo per unit, Food Concepts Plc expanded by 7.27 per cent N1.77 per share from N1.65 per share, Acorn Petroleum Plc grew by 6.36 per cent to N1.17 per unit from N1.10 per unit, Industrial and General Insurance Plc chalked up 2.86 per cent to quote at N36 Kobo per share versus N35 Kobo per share, UBN Property Plc increased by 2.75 per cent to N2.34 per unit from N2.18 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc jumped by 0.78 per cent to N29.40 per share from N19.25 per share.
In the week, the total value of trades went up by 255.2 per cent to N113.13 million from N39.1 million, while the total volume of transactions went down by 35.6 to 2.44 million units from 3.80 million units.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc was the busiest stock by value with N90.3 million, CSCS Plc recorded N13.2 million, Okitipupa Plc posted N5.2 billion, Afriland Properties Plc sold N1.6 million, and 11 Plc achieved N1.1 million.
Also, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc was the most active by volume with 1.3 million units, CSCS Plc traded 0.43 million units, UBN Property Plc exchanged 0.27 million units, Lagos Building Investment Company (LBIC) Plc reported 0.15 million units, and Afriland Plc transacted 0.08 million units.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The suspension earlier placed on Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited has been lifted.
This action was taken on Wednesday, allowing investors to resume trading in the shares of the company, a pioneer paper conversion and printing firm in Nigeria.
Recall that on February 11, 2025, the stock market regulator suspended trading in the equities of Thomas Wyatt because of its inability to publish its financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2024.
The embargo on the organisation, according to the NGX, was in line with the provisions of Rule 3.1: Rules for Filing of Accounts and Treatment of Default Filing (Default Filing Rules).
Business Post reports that the rule requires the regulator to prohibit the buying and selling of the company’s securities on its platform “If an issuer fails to file the relevant accounts by the expiration of the cure period.”
However, before the suspension if effected, the NGX must have sent the defaulting firm “a second filing deficiency notification” within two business days after the end of the cure period.
After the suspension of trading in the issuer’s securities, the NGX must “notify the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the market within 24 hours.”
In a statement last Wednesday, the stock exchange informed the market that “Thomas Wyatt Nigeria has now filed its audited financial statements for the year ended March 31, 2024, and other outstanding unaudited financial statements for 2024.”
“In view of the company’s submission of its 2024 AFS, and pursuant to Rule 3.3 of the default filing rules, which states that the suspension of trading in the issuer’s securities shall be lifted upon submission of the relevant accounts provided the exchange is satisfied that the accounts comply with all applicable rules of the exchange. the exchange shall thereafter also announce through the medium by which the public and the sec was initially notified of the suspension, that the suspension has been lifted, trading license holders and the investing public are hereby notified that the suspension placed on trading on the shares of Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc was lifted on Wednesday, June 18, 2025,” the notice stated.
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