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Economy

Inflation: Base Effect to bow out as Food Pressures Dictate CPI Tone

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Inflation Rate

By ARM Research

Nigerian inflation continued its descent in May to an annual rate of 16.25%, down from 17.3% in April – the fourth consecutive deceleration in 2017. The moderation in CPI was reflective of another sizable down-leg in core inflation owing to impact of high base effect from 2016.

To be clear, while MoM core inflation was 5bps higher at 1.2% (vs. April reading), the YoY reading materially moderated (-173bps from prior reading to 13% YoY) in the review month to provide validation to our thesis.

Particularly, breakdowns provided revealed that moderations in HWEGF (-314bps to 13% YoY) and other energy-related sub core components were central to the further southward swing in core inflation. To buttress, increases in PMS prices have been subdued (+0.3% YoY to N150.70 per litre).

Notwithstanding the slight temperance in YoY food reading from prior month to 19.27% YoY—a reflection of similar base effects, MoM reading printed at its highest level in 12 months (+2.54% MoM) with the NBS noting highest increases in prices of bread and cereals, meat, fish, tubers, and vegetables.

Though much has been said of the potential impact of Naira appreciation on the food basket—with regards to its capacity to tame rising demand pressures from neighbouring West African countries, structural bottlenecks such as higher transport inflation have largely restricted potential pass-through in our view.

Specifically, transport inflation did not only fail to moderate in the review period, it touched its highest level in 9 months in May (+1.2% MoM) despite reported decline in diesel prices (-5.7% MoM to N216.30).

The pressure from transport largely reflects follow-through from recent price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.

However, the recent MoM decline in diesel prices and subdued growth in PMS and cooking gas prices suggest that ongoing reforms are gradually gaining grounds despite current stickiness of transport cost.

Away from the strain from higher transport cost, increased demand for cereals—especially in the predominantly Muslim north—in the bloom of the Ramadan season also added another dimension to the Nigerian food price challenge in May.

Going forward, the continuation of the Ramadan season should leave pressures on cereal prices largely intact. Thus, aided by still elevated transportation cost which have limited gains from an appreciating naira, we remain bearish on food inflation despite ongoing green harvest in the Southern part of the country.

That said, the cumulative benefits of sustained FX policy gains appear to have finally caught up with energy prices given subdued MoM growth in prices of PMS and cooking gas as well as decline in diesel prices in recent readings.

We expect this to lead to a moderation in monthly core inflation reading in June—albeit expected to have a relatively pale influence on YoY reading compared to that from the just ended high base effect from 2016. Overall, our expectations across the core and food inflation buckets should translate to an unchanged headline reading of 16.25% YoY in June 2017.

In terms of market impact, the CBN is expected to maintain its ongoing foreign exchange management policy in line with its guidance at the last MPC.

Specifically, putting subsisting food inflation pressures side by side with the positives from the newly introduced FX window for Investors and Exporters thus far, the CBN is unlikely to be in a hurry to exit its ongoing tight monetary policy and FX market drives. In any case, evidence from last GDP report reveals that the economy is already well on its way to recovery. In the near term therefore, we expect the CBN to sustain its sizable FX supply and aggressive OMO issuances, with the liquidity sapping effect of the duo leaving short term interest rates elevated.

Source: ARM Research

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Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes

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UK Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.

Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.

Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”

The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.

Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.

“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”

On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.

“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”

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Economy

MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth

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MTN Nigeria SMEDAN

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).

The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.

With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.

At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.

The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.

“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.

Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.

“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.

Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.

“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.

“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.

Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.

He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.

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Economy

NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax

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capital gains tax

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.

Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.

Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.

The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”

According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”

“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”

Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.

He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.

Mr Oyedele  also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.

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