Economy
Inflation: Base Effect to bow out as Food Pressures Dictate CPI Tone
By ARM Research
Nigerian inflation continued its descent in May to an annual rate of 16.25%, down from 17.3% in April – the fourth consecutive deceleration in 2017. The moderation in CPI was reflective of another sizable down-leg in core inflation owing to impact of high base effect from 2016.
To be clear, while MoM core inflation was 5bps higher at 1.2% (vs. April reading), the YoY reading materially moderated (-173bps from prior reading to 13% YoY) in the review month to provide validation to our thesis.
Particularly, breakdowns provided revealed that moderations in HWEGF (-314bps to 13% YoY) and other energy-related sub core components were central to the further southward swing in core inflation. To buttress, increases in PMS prices have been subdued (+0.3% YoY to N150.70 per litre).
Notwithstanding the slight temperance in YoY food reading from prior month to 19.27% YoY—a reflection of similar base effects, MoM reading printed at its highest level in 12 months (+2.54% MoM) with the NBS noting highest increases in prices of bread and cereals, meat, fish, tubers, and vegetables.
Though much has been said of the potential impact of Naira appreciation on the food basket—with regards to its capacity to tame rising demand pressures from neighbouring West African countries, structural bottlenecks such as higher transport inflation have largely restricted potential pass-through in our view.
Specifically, transport inflation did not only fail to moderate in the review period, it touched its highest level in 9 months in May (+1.2% MoM) despite reported decline in diesel prices (-5.7% MoM to N216.30).
The pressure from transport largely reflects follow-through from recent price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.
However, the recent MoM decline in diesel prices and subdued growth in PMS and cooking gas prices suggest that ongoing reforms are gradually gaining grounds despite current stickiness of transport cost.
Away from the strain from higher transport cost, increased demand for cereals—especially in the predominantly Muslim north—in the bloom of the Ramadan season also added another dimension to the Nigerian food price challenge in May.
Going forward, the continuation of the Ramadan season should leave pressures on cereal prices largely intact. Thus, aided by still elevated transportation cost which have limited gains from an appreciating naira, we remain bearish on food inflation despite ongoing green harvest in the Southern part of the country.
That said, the cumulative benefits of sustained FX policy gains appear to have finally caught up with energy prices given subdued MoM growth in prices of PMS and cooking gas as well as decline in diesel prices in recent readings.
We expect this to lead to a moderation in monthly core inflation reading in June—albeit expected to have a relatively pale influence on YoY reading compared to that from the just ended high base effect from 2016. Overall, our expectations across the core and food inflation buckets should translate to an unchanged headline reading of 16.25% YoY in June 2017.
In terms of market impact, the CBN is expected to maintain its ongoing foreign exchange management policy in line with its guidance at the last MPC.
Specifically, putting subsisting food inflation pressures side by side with the positives from the newly introduced FX window for Investors and Exporters thus far, the CBN is unlikely to be in a hurry to exit its ongoing tight monetary policy and FX market drives. In any case, evidence from last GDP report reveals that the economy is already well on its way to recovery. In the near term therefore, we expect the CBN to sustain its sizable FX supply and aggressive OMO issuances, with the liquidity sapping effect of the duo leaving short term interest rates elevated.
Source: ARM Research
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By Adedapo Adesanya
NASD Plc, which operates Nigeria’s Over-the-Counter (OTC) securities exchange, has reaffirmed its commitment to reinforcing its long-term strategic direction and governance framework.
The exchange recently convened its major shareholders, board members, and executive management at a high-level stakeholder retreat in Lagos.
NASD said, “The retreat held in Lagos brought together key institutional stakeholders for in-depth discussions on NASD’s evolving role within Nigeria’s capital market ecosystem.
“The engagement provided a structured platform for shareholders and management to align on strategic priorities necessary to deepen institutional strength, enhance market relevance, and support sustainable growth.”
The company noted that deliberations focused on the importance of strong shareholder collaboration, disciplined strategy execution, and equitable governance practices to further strengthen investor confidence and long-term value creation.
The statement added that participants exchanged views on navigating market complexity, adapting to regulatory and economic changes, and ensuring that the Exchange continues to operate in line with global best practices while addressing the specific needs of Nigeria’s over-the-counter market.
NASD emphasised that the retreat highlighted the critical role of close alignment among shareholders, the Board, and executive leadership in shaping the Exchange’s next phase of development. By encouraging open dialogue and shared strategic intent, the engagement reaffirmed NASD’s commitment to transparency, institutional resilience, and leadership within the capital market.
The session concluded with a group engagement reflecting the depth of experience, governance oversight, and collective responsibility guiding NASD’s strategic outlook as it continues to enhance its contribution to Nigeria’s financial market architecture.
NASD posted a standout performance in 2025, with its market diversification strategy delivering a surge in listings, deeper market activity, and a sharp expansion in market value across its alternative trading platforms.
Last year, the market capitalisation on the exchange more than doubled to N2.12 trillion, representing a 106 per cent increase from N1.03 trillion in 2024. The number of admitted securities also rose marginally to 47, up from 45 in the prior year, reflecting a 4 per cent growth.
The NASD Securities Index (NSI) rose by 18 per cent to 3,543.74 points, compared with 3,002.68 points in 2024. Similarly, the NASD Pension Index advanced by 21 per cent to 1,032.88 points, up from 954.33 points.
Trading volumes surged significantly during the year. Total volume traded climbed to 14.03 billion units, marking a 377 per cent increase from 2.98 billion units in 2024. However, this sharp rise in volume contrasted with a decline in transaction value, which fell by 43 per cent to N59.29 billion, down from N103.96 billion in 2024.
The total number of deals executed on the platform dropped to 6,456, representing a 26 per cent decline from 8,724 deals recorded the previous year, indicating fewer but larger or more strategic transactions.
The exchange also recorded notable listings in 2025, with Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company PLC (InfraCredit), Paintcom Investment Nigeria PLC (Paintcom), and MRS PLC admitted to trading.
By Bon Peters
The Area 1 Command of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) in Port Harcourt, Rivers State, surpassed its 2025 revenue target by generating about N288.8 billion.
In the preceding financial year, the command generated N200.8 billion as revenue, indicating a year-on-year growth of 43.83 per cent.
Addressing journalists in Port Harcourt, the Customs Area 1 Controller, Comptroller Salamatu Atuluku, disclosed that the target for the command last year was N216.9 billion, indicating that this was surpassed by N71.8 billion or 33.1 per cent.
She attributed this achievement to the effectiveness of improved compliance monitoring, enhanced cargo examination processes, automation-driven controls, and sustained stakeholder sensitization.
According to her, the monthly revenue performance remained consistently strong throughout the year, with the highest collection recorded in October 2025 at N33.7 billion.
On export trade facilitation, she hinted that in line with the federal government’s economic diversification agenda, the command intensified efforts toward facilitating legitimate export trade, adding that within the year under review, it processed a total export volume of over a million metric tons, comprising both oil and non-oil commodities with a Free on Board (FOB) value of $463.6 million, which she said contributed meaningfully to Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings.
In addition, Ms Atuluku stated that N838.02 million was paid as Nigeria Export Supervision Scheme (NESS) charges for both oil and non-oil exports during the year, noting that this reflected an increased exporter participation, improved documentation compliance, and the command’s deliberate efforts to streamline export procedures while ensuring adherence to extant regulations.
On anti-smuggling and enforcement activities, it was disclosed that the command sustained vigorous enforcement operations throughout 2025, deploying intelligence-led interventions, risk profiling, and routine cargo examinations to curb smuggling and protect national interests, resulting in the interception of undeclared pharmaceutical products at the NACHO shed.
The items intercepted included Progesterone 100mg/2ml, and Isifrane IP 250ml among others, discovered in three packages without the mandatory NAFDAC regulatory certification, contrary to import guidelines governing pharmaceutical products, the Controller stated.
In the year under review, the personnel of the command benefitted from periodic training programs, sensitization sessions, operational briefings, and system-focused engagements, particularly in areas of customs automation, risk management, enforcement procedures, and trade facilitation.
On infrastructural development, the command renovated the Quarter Guard, thereby enhancing access control, security coordination, and command presence at the main entry point, including the Command Staff Clinic which was renovated and upgraded to improve healthcare delivery and working conditions for medical personnel, and beneficiaries.
Also, the command executed a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) intervention on December 11, 2025, at the Model Primary School I and II, Orominike, D-Line, Port Harcourt, with the donation of customs-branded notebooks, school bags, and school uniforms, aimed at supporting basic education and easing the burden on pupils and parents within the host community.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Five securities caused the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange to experience a setback of 0.64 per cent on Monday, February 2.
During the first trading session of February 2026, FrieslandCampinaWamco Nigeria Plc shrank by N4.46 to end at N63.54 per unit versus the previous session’s N68.00 per unit, as Okitipupa Plc depreciated by N3.83 to close at N230.77 per share versus last Friday’s N234.60 per share.
Further, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) dropped 50 Kobo to sell at N40.00 per unit compared with the previous closing price of N40.50 per unit, UBN Property Plc dipped by 21 Kobo to N1.99 per share from N2.20 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc lost 3 Kobo to end at N1.35 per unit versus N1.38 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation went down by N13.98 billion to settle at N2.158 trillion, in contrast to the previous value of N2.171 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) contracted by 23.35 points to settle at 3,606.76 points compared with last Friday’s closing value of 3,630.11 points.
Amid the loss, Geo-Fluids Plc managed to finish green after it chalked up 9 Kobo to sell at N6.84 per share versus the N5.75 per share it ended in the last trading day.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors surged by 1,238.5 per cent to 3.9 million units from 287,618 units, the value of securities increased by 1,075.2 per cent to N36.0 million from N3.1 million, and the number of deals soared by 90.5 per cent to 40 deals from 21 deals.
At the close of trades, CSCS Plc remained the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 15.4 million units valued at N623.9 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.7 million units worth N110.2 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 10.6 million units sold for N69.9 million.
CSCS Plc was also the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 15.4 million units traded for N623.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 10.6 million units worth N69.9 million, and Mass Telecom Innovation Plc with 10.1 million units transacted for N4.1 million.
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