Economy
Inflation: Base Effect to bow out as Food Pressures Dictate CPI Tone
By ARM Research
Nigerian inflation continued its descent in May to an annual rate of 16.25%, down from 17.3% in April – the fourth consecutive deceleration in 2017. The moderation in CPI was reflective of another sizable down-leg in core inflation owing to impact of high base effect from 2016.
To be clear, while MoM core inflation was 5bps higher at 1.2% (vs. April reading), the YoY reading materially moderated (-173bps from prior reading to 13% YoY) in the review month to provide validation to our thesis.
Particularly, breakdowns provided revealed that moderations in HWEGF (-314bps to 13% YoY) and other energy-related sub core components were central to the further southward swing in core inflation. To buttress, increases in PMS prices have been subdued (+0.3% YoY to N150.70 per litre).
Notwithstanding the slight temperance in YoY food reading from prior month to 19.27% YoY—a reflection of similar base effects, MoM reading printed at its highest level in 12 months (+2.54% MoM) with the NBS noting highest increases in prices of bread and cereals, meat, fish, tubers, and vegetables.
Though much has been said of the potential impact of Naira appreciation on the food basket—with regards to its capacity to tame rising demand pressures from neighbouring West African countries, structural bottlenecks such as higher transport inflation have largely restricted potential pass-through in our view.
Specifically, transport inflation did not only fail to moderate in the review period, it touched its highest level in 9 months in May (+1.2% MoM) despite reported decline in diesel prices (-5.7% MoM to N216.30).
The pressure from transport largely reflects follow-through from recent price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.
However, the recent MoM decline in diesel prices and subdued growth in PMS and cooking gas prices suggest that ongoing reforms are gradually gaining grounds despite current stickiness of transport cost.
Away from the strain from higher transport cost, increased demand for cereals—especially in the predominantly Muslim north—in the bloom of the Ramadan season also added another dimension to the Nigerian food price challenge in May.
Going forward, the continuation of the Ramadan season should leave pressures on cereal prices largely intact. Thus, aided by still elevated transportation cost which have limited gains from an appreciating naira, we remain bearish on food inflation despite ongoing green harvest in the Southern part of the country.
That said, the cumulative benefits of sustained FX policy gains appear to have finally caught up with energy prices given subdued MoM growth in prices of PMS and cooking gas as well as decline in diesel prices in recent readings.
We expect this to lead to a moderation in monthly core inflation reading in June—albeit expected to have a relatively pale influence on YoY reading compared to that from the just ended high base effect from 2016. Overall, our expectations across the core and food inflation buckets should translate to an unchanged headline reading of 16.25% YoY in June 2017.
In terms of market impact, the CBN is expected to maintain its ongoing foreign exchange management policy in line with its guidance at the last MPC.
Specifically, putting subsisting food inflation pressures side by side with the positives from the newly introduced FX window for Investors and Exporters thus far, the CBN is unlikely to be in a hurry to exit its ongoing tight monetary policy and FX market drives. In any case, evidence from last GDP report reveals that the economy is already well on its way to recovery. In the near term therefore, we expect the CBN to sustain its sizable FX supply and aggressive OMO issuances, with the liquidity sapping effect of the duo leaving short term interest rates elevated.
Source: ARM Research
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By Dipo Olowookere
The bears consolidated their dominance on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday, inflicting an additional 0.09 per cent cut on the market.
At midweek, the market capitalisation of the domestic stock exchange went down by N73 billion to N124.754 trillion from the preceding day’s N124.827 trillion, and the All-Share Index (ASI) slipped by 114.32 points to 194,370.20 points from 194,484.52 points.
A look at the sectoral performance showed that only the consumer goods index closed in green, gaining 1.19 per cent due to buying pressure.
However, sustained profit-taking weakened the insurance space by 3.79 per cent, the banking index slumped by 2.07 per cent, the energy counter went down by 0.24 per cent, and the industrial goods sector shrank by 0.22 per cent.
Business Post reports that 25 equities ended on the gainers’ chart, and 54 equities finished on the losers’ table, representing a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
RT Briscoe lost 10.00 per cent to sell for N10.35, ABC Transport crashed by 10.00 per cent to N6.75, SAHCO depreciated by 9.98 per cent to N139.35, Haldane McCall gave up 9.93 per cent to trade at N3.99, and Vitafoam Nigeria decreased by 9.93 per cent to N112.50.
Conversely, Jaiz Bank gained 9.95 per cent to settle at N14.03, Okomu Oil appreciated by 9.93 per cent to N1,765.00, Trans-nationwide Express chalked up 9.77 per cent to close at N2.36, Fortis Global Insurance moved up by 9.72 per cent to 79 Kobo, and Champion Breweries rose by 5.39 per cent to N17.60.
Yesterday, 1.4 billion shares worth N46.2 billion were transacted in 70,222 deals compared with the 1.1 billion shares valued at N53.4 billion traded in 72,218 deals a day earlier, implying a rise in the trading volume by 27.27 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 13.48 per cent and 2.76 per cent, respectively.
Fortis Global Insurance ended the session as the busiest stock after trading 193.7 million units for N152.7 million, Zenith Bank transacted 120.7 million units worth N11.1 billion, Japaul exchanged 114.8 million units valued at N407.0 million, Ellah Lakes sold 98.4 million units worth N999.2 million, and Access Holdings traded 63.1 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 74 Kobo or 0.05 per cent decline was recorded by the Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, February 25, trading at N1,356.11/$1 compared with the N1,355.37/$1 it was traded on Tuesday.
The Nigerian currency also further depreciated against the Pound Sterling during the session in the official market by N6.70 to settle at N1,834.96/£1 versus the preceding day’s rate of N1,828.26/£1, and against the Euro, it tumbled by N4.94 to quote at N1,598.59/€1 compared with the previous session’s N1,596.36/€1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira lost N6 against the Dollar at the GTBank forex desk to close at N1,367/$1, in contrast to N1,361/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier, and in the parallel market, it traded flat at N1,365/$1.
The continuation of the decline of the local currency has been tied to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) buying US Dollars from the market to slow the rapid rise of the Naira.
The apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN on Tuesday reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent after inflation eased in January 2026, a move analysts say is the best not to unsettle FX market, especially the Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI_ inflows which have anchored much of the recent supply and weakened the recently restored monetary credibility.
“The 50bps move therefore provides a clear directional signal while still keeping overall monetary conditions restrictive, indicating the start of a shallow, data-dependent easing cycle rather than a radical shift to accommodative policy,” said Mr Kayode Akindele, CEO, Coronation Capital and Head, Coronation Research in an email.
As for the cryptocurrency market, benchmarked tokens rebounded in double digits, driven by bearish positioning and thin liquidity rather than by clear fundamental catalysts, with Cardano (ADA) growing by 16.2 per cent to $0.3015, and Solana (SOL) appreciating by 12.3 per cent to $88.66.
Further, Ethereum (ETH) surged 11.9 per cent to $2,076.66, Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 11.5 per cent to $57.15, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 11.5 per cent to $0.1025, Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 7.6 per cent to $629.76, Ripple (XRP) jumped 7.2 per cent to $1.45, and Bitcoin (BTC) added 6.4 per cent to sell for $68,136.72, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled largely unchanged on Wednesday amid a build in American crude stockpile and the threat to oil supply from potential military conflict between the US and Iran.
Brent futures chalked up 8 cents to trade at $70.85 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled lost 21 cents to close at $65.42 per barrel.
Crude oil inventories in the US increased by 16 million barrels during the week ending February 20, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday.
The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 435.8 million barrels according to government data, which is still 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories rose by a massive 11.4 million barrels in the period.
The market continued to weigh the possibility extended conflict could disrupt supplies from Iran, the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries in the Middle East.
US President Donald Trump verbally attacked Iran, saying he would not allow a country he described as the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.
This comes as US envoys are due to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of talks on Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.
Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering raising its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April to end a three-month pause in production increases. This is as the group prepares for peak summer demand and tensions between the US and Iran boost prices.
Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – meet on March 1.
An increase of 137,000 barrels per day for April would be the same as those agreed for December, November and October last year.
In a separate development, Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case a US strike on Iran disrupts flows from the Middle East, said two sources familiar with the Saudi plan.
Tariff uncertainty also further worried investors after President Trump’s temporary global tariff of 10 per cent took effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court’s sweeping ruling last week. He later said the levy would be 15 per cent, but it was unclear when and if it would apply.
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