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Economy

Inflation: Base Effect to bow out as Food Pressures Dictate CPI Tone

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Inflation Rate

By ARM Research

Nigerian inflation continued its descent in May to an annual rate of 16.25%, down from 17.3% in April – the fourth consecutive deceleration in 2017. The moderation in CPI was reflective of another sizable down-leg in core inflation owing to impact of high base effect from 2016.

To be clear, while MoM core inflation was 5bps higher at 1.2% (vs. April reading), the YoY reading materially moderated (-173bps from prior reading to 13% YoY) in the review month to provide validation to our thesis.

Particularly, breakdowns provided revealed that moderations in HWEGF (-314bps to 13% YoY) and other energy-related sub core components were central to the further southward swing in core inflation. To buttress, increases in PMS prices have been subdued (+0.3% YoY to N150.70 per litre).

Notwithstanding the slight temperance in YoY food reading from prior month to 19.27% YoY—a reflection of similar base effects, MoM reading printed at its highest level in 12 months (+2.54% MoM) with the NBS noting highest increases in prices of bread and cereals, meat, fish, tubers, and vegetables.

Though much has been said of the potential impact of Naira appreciation on the food basket—with regards to its capacity to tame rising demand pressures from neighbouring West African countries, structural bottlenecks such as higher transport inflation have largely restricted potential pass-through in our view.

Specifically, transport inflation did not only fail to moderate in the review period, it touched its highest level in 9 months in May (+1.2% MoM) despite reported decline in diesel prices (-5.7% MoM to N216.30).

The pressure from transport largely reflects follow-through from recent price hikes by major transport associations across the country in response to the sharp jump in Diesel prices in December.

However, the recent MoM decline in diesel prices and subdued growth in PMS and cooking gas prices suggest that ongoing reforms are gradually gaining grounds despite current stickiness of transport cost.

Away from the strain from higher transport cost, increased demand for cereals—especially in the predominantly Muslim north—in the bloom of the Ramadan season also added another dimension to the Nigerian food price challenge in May.

Going forward, the continuation of the Ramadan season should leave pressures on cereal prices largely intact. Thus, aided by still elevated transportation cost which have limited gains from an appreciating naira, we remain bearish on food inflation despite ongoing green harvest in the Southern part of the country.

That said, the cumulative benefits of sustained FX policy gains appear to have finally caught up with energy prices given subdued MoM growth in prices of PMS and cooking gas as well as decline in diesel prices in recent readings.

We expect this to lead to a moderation in monthly core inflation reading in June—albeit expected to have a relatively pale influence on YoY reading compared to that from the just ended high base effect from 2016. Overall, our expectations across the core and food inflation buckets should translate to an unchanged headline reading of 16.25% YoY in June 2017.

In terms of market impact, the CBN is expected to maintain its ongoing foreign exchange management policy in line with its guidance at the last MPC.

Specifically, putting subsisting food inflation pressures side by side with the positives from the newly introduced FX window for Investors and Exporters thus far, the CBN is unlikely to be in a hurry to exit its ongoing tight monetary policy and FX market drives. In any case, evidence from last GDP report reveals that the economy is already well on its way to recovery. In the near term therefore, we expect the CBN to sustain its sizable FX supply and aggressive OMO issuances, with the liquidity sapping effect of the duo leaving short term interest rates elevated.

Source: ARM Research

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Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Stocks Sheds 0.94% on Commencement of NGX Extended Market Session

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NGX Group

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited suffered a 0.94 per cent loss on Monday, April 27, 2026, which marked the commencement of an extended market session.

A few weeks ago, it was announced that trading activities on Customs Street would now be from 9:00 am to 4:00 pm instead of the usual 9:30 am to 2:30 pm.

This action was taken to allow market participants more time to explore the bourse and further make it robust, especially after the restoration of Nigeria’s frontier market status by FTSE Russell.

The NGX came under selling pressure, which resulted in 35 equities finishing on the gainers’ chart and 40 equities ending on the losers’ table, indicating a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.

Trans-Nationwide Express, First Holdco, and UBA were the worst-performing equities after giving up 10.00 per cent each to trade at N7.11, N67.50, and N49.50, respectively. Access Holdings depreciated by 9.90 per cent to N28.20, and Fidelity Bank crashed by 9.87 per cent to N20.10.

The best-performing equity for the session was Abbey Mortgage Bank, which gained 9.26 per cent to N5.90, Zichis went up by 8.91 per cent to N16.99, Wema Bank expanded by 8.80 per cent to N34.00, NPF Microfinance Bank soared by 8.19 per cent to N5.68, and Coronation Insurance grew by 7.27 per cent to N2.66.

It was observed that the profit-taking was mainly from banking stocks, as the index shed 6.49 per cent. The consumer goods sector lost 0.41 per cent, and the energy counter depreciated by 0.24 per cent.

However, the industrial goods space improved by 0.85 per cent, and the insurance segment appreciated by 0.15 per cent.

But at the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) slipped by 2,120.20 points to 223,602.29 points from 225,722.49 points, and the market capitalisation shrank by N1.365 trillion to N143.970 trillion from N145.335 trillion.

A total of 678.2 million shares worth N44.1 billion were traded in 82,838 deals on Monday compared with 627.6 million shares valued at 44.5 billion transacted in 55,232 deals last Friday, representing a drop in the trading value by 0.90 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and number of deals by 8.06 per cent and 49.98 per cent, respectively.

Zenith Bank was at the zenith of the activity chart yesterday with 76.1 million units sold for N9.5 billion. Wema Bank traded 49.9 million units worth N1.7 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 39.1 million units valued at N1.1 billion, Tantalizers transacted 30.0 million units worth N113.9 million, and AIICO Insurance traded 28.3 million units valued at N118.3 million.

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Economy

Nigeria Boosts Oil Theft Curbing with Naval Drill

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Crude Oil Theft special court

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has ramped up efforts to secure its oil-rich waters and curb maritime crime, deploying significant naval assets under Exercise Obangame Express 2026 to protect critical energy infrastructure and trade routes in the Gulf of Guinea.

Flagging off the exercise in Onne, Rivers State, the Chief of Naval Staff, Vice Admiral Idi Abbas, said the exercise is central to safeguarding economic assets and sustaining investor confidence in Nigeria’s maritime domain.

“The safer maritime environment has enhanced investor confidence, increased shipping activities and supports the Federal Government’s drive towards a sustainable blue economy,” he said in a statement.

The multinational exercise, coordinated with the United States Africa Command, focuses on combating oil theft, piracy, illegal trafficking and other threats that directly impact Nigeria’s oil revenues and regional trade flows.

The focus on maritime security comes amid persistent concerns over crude oil theft and supply chain disruptions, which continue to undermine Nigeria’s production capacity.

Mr Abbas emphasised that coordinated regional efforts remain the most effective response to evolving threats.

“OBANGAME EXPRESS provides a unique opportunity for participating nations to train together, operate together and build the trust necessary for real-time coordination,” he said.

He added that no country can independently secure its maritime domain, stressing the need for sustained partnerships to protect the Gulf’s strategic energy corridor.

Also, the Commander, Eastern Naval Command, Rear Admiral CD Okehie, said the operation reflects a strategic shift toward protecting high-value maritime assets.

“The Gulf of Guinea serves as a major global sea lane of commerce, making it indispensable not only to regional economies but also to international trade,” he noted.

According to him, the Navy’s deployment of 10 ships, helicopters and special forces is designed to strengthen surveillance, interdiction and rapid response capabilities.

With Nigeria’s offshore assets and export routes forming a backbone of national revenue, the exercise signals a renewed push to tighten security, reduce losses and stabilise the broader oil and gas ecosystem.

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Economy

Why We Did Not Pay Dividend for FY 2025—Nigerian Breweries

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Nigerian Breweries

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

When shareholders of Nigerian Breweries Plc gathered at the company’s 80th Annual General Meeting (AGM) in Lagos, on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, one thing they were sure was not on the agenda was the approval of a dividend for the 2025 financial year.

This was because the board did not propose the payment of a cash reward to investors for the fiscal year for some reasons, which were explained at the meeting.

The chairman of the organisation, Ms Juliet Anammah, told shareholders that the dividend payout was skipped to rebuild retained earnings impacted by prior macroeconomic shocks, particularly foreign exchange-related losses.

“We recognise the importance of dividend payments to our shareholders and sincerely appreciate your continued understanding.

“While we are not declaring a dividend at this time due to negative retained earnings, we are working diligently to restore the company’s financial position and return to dividend payments as soon as it is sustainable to do so,” she explained.

Ms Anammah noted that the board remains vigilant to external risks, including the Middle East crisis and broader macroeconomic challenges, which may impact the pace of improvement in the 2026 financial year.

She thanked shareholders for their continued support and reaffirmed that the company will build on its 2025 performance as it accelerates growth ambitions.

“We have a solid foundation built over eight decades, anchored on a strong portfolio of brands, an extensive nationwide sales and supply chain network, ongoing digital transformation, and most importantly, our people. These strengths remain critical to sustaining our leadership position,” she said.

Despite the non-payment of cash reward for the year, shareholders applauded Nigerian Breweries for strong recovery and improved profitability in the 2025 financial year, driven by disciplined cost management and a significant reduction in finance expenses.

One of them, Mr Eke Emmanuel, who is the immediate past Secretary of the Independent Shareholders Association of Nigeria, praised the board and management for steering the company through a volatile macroeconomic environment while strengthening its financial position, noting that the company’s resilience, at a time when several businesses exited the country, reflects strong leadership and a sound strategic direction.

“It is good news that we have been here for 80 years. There is no reason why we will not be here for the next 80 years with what we have achieved. To return to this level of profitability and cash position shows the Board has done an enormous amount of work,” he said.

Another shareholder, Mr Owolabi Opeyemi of the Noble Shareholders Association, confessed that, “We are proud of how the company has withstood the ups and downs of a challenging environment. The return to profitability and the reversal of the negative cash position recorded in the previous two financial years is commendable.”

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