Economy
Inflationary Pressures Hamper Business Operations as PMI Remains Under 50 Points
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has shown that the manufacturing sector in Nigeria has remained depressed below the 50-point mark for November 2024, though there is an improvement.
In its latest reading, it was disclosed that it was at 49.6 points compared with 46.9 points in October 2024, attributing this to inflationary pressures.
Business Post reports that readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration.
It was revealed that business operations in the Nigerian private sector have been hampered as employment was down and companies continued to lower their purchasing amid steep price pressures.
The firm stated that the less pronounced deterioration in business conditions in part reflected a renewed expansion in new orders, which rose slightly following a solid fall in October.
Although there were some tentative signs of demand improving, companies reported that customers were often deterred by high prices. The inflationary environment and muted demand conditions meant that business activity continued to fall, the fifth month running in which that has been the case.
The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said, “The Nigerian private sector activities deteriorated further in November, albeit at a less pronounced rate relative to October.
“This less pronounced deterioration was primarily due to the return to growth of new orders in November, after having decreased solidly in October. Notably, new orders have now risen in three of the past four months, although the latest expansion was only modest.
“Some panellists saw signs of demand picking up, but others reported that high costs again acted to deter customers. Elsewhere, higher energy prices, increases in the cost of raw materials, and lingering currency weakness continue to lead to intensification of price pressures in November.
“Thus, input prices increased at a substantial rate again during November, with the pace of inflation only slightly lower than that seen in October and remaining one of the sharpest on record. In Q3:24, the Nigerian economy grew by 3.46% y/y relative to 3.19% y/y growth in Q2:24. Notably, the non-oil sector grew by 3.37% y/y in Q3:24 from 2.80% y/y in Q2:24, albeit with uneven performance across the sub-sectors that make up the non-oil sector. ICT, finance & insurance, trade, road transport, and agriculture were the key growth drivers of the non-oil sector in the review period.
“Nonetheless, there appears to be a disconnect between the composite PMI and non-oil GDP growth in recent quarters, with this disconnect more pronounced in Q3:24 when the PMI for the quarter weakened to 49.6 points – a sign of deterioration in business conditions – while non-oil GDP growth was strong in the review period.
“Historically, the non-oil GDP growth is mildly negative whenever the composite PMI is below the 50-point no-change mark. We expect the economy to maintain the Q3:24 growth momentum in Q4:24, supported by a festive-induced increase in economic activity and sustained improvement in crude oil production.
“Indeed, based on the November PMI survey results, companies reported some tentative signs of demand improving although some customers were deterred by high prices. On balance, we estimate the economy to grow by 3.24% y/y in real terms in Q4:24 and adjust our 2024 growth estimate upward to 3.2% (previously: 3.1%).
“The latest reduction was only marginal, however. Sector data pointed to increases in output in agriculture and manufacturing but decreases in wholesale & retail and services. Purchase costs rose rapidly again in November amid currency weakness and higher prices for fuel and raw materials. Although slowing slightly for the second month running, the pace of inflation remained elevated. Staff costs were also up as companies helped their workers with higher living and transportation costs,” he said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The deadline for the recapitalisation of the Nigerian pension industry has been extended by six months to June 2027 from December 2026.
This extension was approved by the National Pension Commission (PenCom), the agency, which regulates the sector in the country.
Addressing newsmen on Thursday in Lagos, the Director-General of PenCom, Ms Omolola Oloworaran, explained that the shift in deadline was to give operators more time to boost the capital base, dismissing speculations that the exercise had been suspended.
“The recapitalisation has not been suspended. We have communicated the requirements to the Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), and we expect every operator to be compliant by June 2027. Anyone who is not compliant by then will lose their licence,” Ms Oloworaran told journalists.
She added that, “From a regulatory standpoint, our major challenge is ensuring compliance. We are working with ICPC, labour and the TUC to ensure employers remit pension contributions for their employees.”
The DG noted that engagements with industry operators indicated broad acceptance of the policy, with many PFAs already taking steps to raise additional capital or explore mergers and acquisitions.
“You may see some mergers and acquisitions in the industry, but what is clear is that the recapitalisation exercise is on track and the industry agrees with us,” she stated.
PenCom wants the PFAs to increase their capital base and has created three categories, with the first consists operators with Assets Under Management of N500 billion and above. They are expected to have a minimum capital of N20 billion and one per cent of AUM above N500 billion.
The second category has PFAs with AUM below N500 billion, which must have at least N20 billion as capital base.
The last segment comprises special-purpose PFAs such as NPF Pensions Limited, whose minimum capital was pegged at N30 billion, and the Nigerian University Pension Management Company Limited, whose minimum capital was fixed at N20 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Three securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Thursday, December 18.
According to data, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc led the losers’ group after it slipped by N2.87 to N36.78 per share from N39.65 per share, Golden Capital Plc depreciated by 77 Kobo to end at N6.98 per unit versus the previous day’s N7.77 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped 19 Kobo to sell at N60.00 per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of N60.19 per share.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation lost N16.81 billion to finish at N2.147 billion compared with the preceding session’s N2.164 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 24.76 points to 3,589.88 points from 3,614.64 points.
Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold increased by 49.3 per cent to 30.5 million units from 20.4 million units, the value of securities surged by 211.8 per cent to N225.1 million from N72.2 million, and the number of deals jumped by 33.3 per cent to 28 deals from 21 deals.
Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc remained the most traded stock by value with a year-to-date sale of 5.8 billion units valued at N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 178.9 million units transacted for N9.5 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 36.1 million units worth N4.9 billion.
Similarly, InfraCredit Plc ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units traded for N16.4 billion, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.7 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units exchanged for N524.9 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The All-Share Index (ASI) of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited has again crossed the 150,000-point threshold on Thursday as the demand of for local intensifies.
The market was up by 0.35 per cent during the session, with the NGX index inching higher by 520.23 points to 150,363.05 points from the previous day’s 149,842.82 points and the market capitalisation climbed by N332 billion to N95.857 trillion from N95.525 trillion.
During the session, the consumer goods index grew by 1.23 per cent, the banking counter expanded by 0.56 per cent, and the energy sector appreciated by 0.05 per cent.
However, the insurance industry went down by 0.23 per cent, while the commodity and the industrial goods sectors closed flat.
Nestle Nigeria gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N1,958.00, Guinness Nigeria improved by 9.98 per cent to N289.70, Aluminium Extrusion Industries rose by 9.76 per cent to N11.25, DAAR Communications soared by 9.20 per cent to 95 Kobo, and Mecure Industries surged by 9.13 per cent to N55.00.
On the flip side, Stanbic IBTC lost 9.33 per cent to settle at N95.20, Lasaco Assurance went down by 9.09 per cent to N2.50, Africa Prudential slipped by 8.82 per cent, Austin Laz depreciated by 8.82 per cent to N12.40, and Sterling Holdings crashed by 6.12 per cent to N6.90.
There were 35 price gainers and 26 price losers yesterday, implying a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.
During the session, a total of 839.8 million equities valued at N32.8 billion exchanged hands in 23,211 deals compared with the 5.9 billion equities worth N216.2 billion traded in 25,205 deals a day earlier, indicating a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 85.77 per cent, 84.83 per cent, and 7.91 per cent apiece.
The day’s busiest stock was First Holdco with a turnover of 385.6 million units sold for N15.6 billion, FCMB traded 76.0 million units worth N805.3 million, Lasaco Assurance exchanged 43.6 million units valued at N111.8 million, Access Holdings transacted 29.6 million units worth N616.8 million, and Chams sold 24.8 million units valued at N75.4 million.
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