Economy
Inflationary Pressures Hamper Business Operations as PMI Remains Under 50 Points
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has shown that the manufacturing sector in Nigeria has remained depressed below the 50-point mark for November 2024, though there is an improvement.
In its latest reading, it was disclosed that it was at 49.6 points compared with 46.9 points in October 2024, attributing this to inflationary pressures.
Business Post reports that readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration.
It was revealed that business operations in the Nigerian private sector have been hampered as employment was down and companies continued to lower their purchasing amid steep price pressures.
The firm stated that the less pronounced deterioration in business conditions in part reflected a renewed expansion in new orders, which rose slightly following a solid fall in October.
Although there were some tentative signs of demand improving, companies reported that customers were often deterred by high prices. The inflationary environment and muted demand conditions meant that business activity continued to fall, the fifth month running in which that has been the case.
The Head of Equity Research West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said, “The Nigerian private sector activities deteriorated further in November, albeit at a less pronounced rate relative to October.
“This less pronounced deterioration was primarily due to the return to growth of new orders in November, after having decreased solidly in October. Notably, new orders have now risen in three of the past four months, although the latest expansion was only modest.
“Some panellists saw signs of demand picking up, but others reported that high costs again acted to deter customers. Elsewhere, higher energy prices, increases in the cost of raw materials, and lingering currency weakness continue to lead to intensification of price pressures in November.
“Thus, input prices increased at a substantial rate again during November, with the pace of inflation only slightly lower than that seen in October and remaining one of the sharpest on record. In Q3:24, the Nigerian economy grew by 3.46% y/y relative to 3.19% y/y growth in Q2:24. Notably, the non-oil sector grew by 3.37% y/y in Q3:24 from 2.80% y/y in Q2:24, albeit with uneven performance across the sub-sectors that make up the non-oil sector. ICT, finance & insurance, trade, road transport, and agriculture were the key growth drivers of the non-oil sector in the review period.
“Nonetheless, there appears to be a disconnect between the composite PMI and non-oil GDP growth in recent quarters, with this disconnect more pronounced in Q3:24 when the PMI for the quarter weakened to 49.6 points – a sign of deterioration in business conditions – while non-oil GDP growth was strong in the review period.
“Historically, the non-oil GDP growth is mildly negative whenever the composite PMI is below the 50-point no-change mark. We expect the economy to maintain the Q3:24 growth momentum in Q4:24, supported by a festive-induced increase in economic activity and sustained improvement in crude oil production.
“Indeed, based on the November PMI survey results, companies reported some tentative signs of demand improving although some customers were deterred by high prices. On balance, we estimate the economy to grow by 3.24% y/y in real terms in Q4:24 and adjust our 2024 growth estimate upward to 3.2% (previously: 3.1%).
“The latest reduction was only marginal, however. Sector data pointed to increases in output in agriculture and manufacturing but decreases in wholesale & retail and services. Purchase costs rose rapidly again in November amid currency weakness and higher prices for fuel and raw materials. Although slowing slightly for the second month running, the pace of inflation remained elevated. Staff costs were also up as companies helped their workers with higher living and transportation costs,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s external debt servicing costs surged by 38 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The surge translated to Nigeria’s apex bank spending a whopping $3.53 billion to service the country’s debts, indicating a $970 million jump compared to $2.56 billion during the same period in 2023.
This was contained in CBN’s International Payment Data published on its website.
The increase underscored the intensifying fiscal pressures facing Nigeria’s economy amid dwindling revenues, inflationary pressures, and currency depreciation.
A month-by-month analysis highlighted the scale of the challenge and showed that in January 2024, Nigeria spent $560.52 million on external debt servicing, marking a sharp increase from $112.35 million in January 2023.
February 2024 followed with $283.22 million, slightly below the $288.54 million recorded the previous year.
March 2024 showed a decline, with $276.17 million spent, compared to $400.47 million in March 2023, a 31 per cent drop.
In April 2024, debt servicing rose to $215.20 million, a 132 per cent increase, compared to $92.85 million in April 2023.
May 2024 saw the highest monthly expenditure of $854.37 million, a staggering 287 per cent jump from $221.05 million in May 2023.
By contrast, June 2024 recorded $50.82 million, slightly lower than the $54.36 million spent in June 2023.
The mid-year trend showed mixed movements as debt servicing fell to $542.50 million in July 2024, a 15 per cent decline from $641.69 million in July 2023.
August 2024 followed a similar trajectory, with $279.95 million spent compared to $309.96 million the previous year, a 10 per cent reduction.
However, September 2024 marked an increase, with $515.81 million spent, up 17 per cent from $439.06 million in September 2023.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Mr Adeola Olamilekan, has confirmed January 31, 2025, as a provisional date for the passage of Nigeria’s 2025 budget as the committee prepares to begin budget defence today (Tuesday).
He made this disclosure on Monday during a meeting with the chairmen of relevant committees on the template for the 2025 Budget Defence Session to guide the budget process towards its eventual signing into law.
Mr Olamilekan further revealed that upon the resumption of plenary by January 14, 2025, the Senate would immediately commence a two-week break for the seamless continuation of the budget defence process.
He equally revealed a planned retreat on Thursday on the budget consideration which will involve ministries, departments and agencies, civil society organisations, and other stakeholders in the polity for further consultation and insight into the content of the budget proposal.
According to the timetable, from January 15 to 18, the committees are expected to submit reports of their documents, after which collation and tiding of documents by the Appropriation Committee.
Acknowledging the limited timeframe, Mr Olamilekan emphasised the need for lawmakers to intensify their efforts, urging his colleagues to forgo their holidays and begin immediate work on the proposed budget estimate, underscoring the importance of timely and efficient handling of the budget process within the stipulated timeframe.
In a related development, the House of Representatives is to commence the defence for the 2025 appropriation bill by Ministries Departments and Agencies on Tuesday.
The chairman House Committee on Appropriation, Mr Abubakar Bichi, revealed this on Monday after a meeting with chairmen of statutory committees at the House of Representatives.
President Bola Tinubu on December 18, 2024 presented the N49.7 trillion Budget Proposal for 2025 before a joint session of the National Assembly, with security and defence, infrastructure, health and education topping the allocations.
The President listed some of the highlights of the budget as defence and security – N4.91 trillion, infrastructure – N4.06 trillion, health – N2.4 trillion, education – N3.5 trillion, among others.
The budget will likely cross N50 trillion upon review by the National Assembly, making it the largest yet the country has ever had since self rule began in 1960.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended with a 0.92 per cent growth on Monday, January 6 as investors rebalance their portfolios.
Five stocks trading at Nigeria’s OTC securities exchange influenced the positive outcome yesterday, with the value of the bourse growing by N9.58 billion to N1.056 trillion from the N1.046 trillion it ended last Friday.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased at the close of business by 27.95 points to 3,080.29 points from the 3,052.34 points recorded at the previous session.
11 Plc jumped during the day by N23.21 to N255.31 per share from N232.10 per share, Acorn Petroleum Plc expanded by 14 Kobo to sell at N1.54 per unit versus N1.40 per unit, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc went up by 2 Kobo to settle at 22 Kobo per share compared with the preceding day’s 20 Kobo per share, Afriland Properties Plc added 13 Kobo to close at N16.12 per unit versus N15.99 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc chalked up 24 Kobo to quote at N40.00 per share, in contrast to last Friday’s N39.76 per share.
On Monday, the volume of securities traded by investors went down by 83.7 per cent to 1.8 million units from 11.3 million units, and the value of shares traded yesterday depreciated by 63.5 per cent to N20.7 million from the N56.8 million recorded in the preceding session, but the number of deals increased by 7.4 per cent to 29 deals from 27 deals.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc was the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.8 million units worth N72.4 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and IGI Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.
IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.8 million units valued at N72.4 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc followed with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.
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