By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation rate edged up to 24.23 per cent in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on  Tuesday. 

It was the first time since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen since it was rebased in January by the stats office, which made the base year 2024 from the previous 2009.

The new rate indicates an upward movement of 1.05 per cent from the 23.18 per cent reported in February 2025, signalling a return to levels (24.48 per cent) recorded in the beginning of the year after the CPI rebasing.

This latest figures came at a time that the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, has unleashed a trade war that has triggered a sharp selloff in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export and led to the weakening of the Naira, which will push up import costs, though this should reflect in the next CPI numbers next month.

Although the US administration announced a 90 per cent day pause on the 14 per cent reciprocal tariffs last week, its felt impact remains, as it continues to fight China.

The Nigerian government have announced plans to boost its non-oil imports to tackle the blowbacks from the trade war, which will heavily impact the global economy.

The rise in inflation will also present a challenge to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) regarding interest rates, which it paused at its last meeting.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.

The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.

The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.

The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.

The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.

Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”

It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.

However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.

“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.

The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.

Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.

“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.

It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.

However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.

Forex trading is booming across Nigeria, drawing in thousands of new traders eager to make money from currency markets. This beginner-friendly guide explains how to get started, where to learn the basics, and how services like STIC Cashback can boost your profits through the best forex cashback Nigeria offers. Discover how to use the cashback forex calculator, what platforms to trust and how to trade smarter, not harder.

Forex trading is growing rapidly in Nigeria, with more and more individuals turning to the foreign exchange market to build wealth, create side income, or gain financial independence. Thanks to increasing access to online brokers and mobile-friendly platforms, people across the country—from Lagos to Abuja—are exploring how to trade forex like never before.

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Getting started: How to trade forex for beginners

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Partner with trusted brokers, trade with confidence

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Join Nigeria’s growing forex community today

With forex trading gaining popularity in Nigeria, there’s never been a better time to start. Thanks to resources like the STIC Cashback beginner’s guide and tools like the cashback forex calculator, new traders can begin with clarity and confidence.

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