Economy
January Inflation to Hit 18.64% Amid Rising Food Costs—FSDH
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A latest report released by FSDH Research has predicted a rise in Nigeria’s inflation rate for the month of January.
In its inflation watch released on Thursday, FSDH stated that it expects the “January 2017 inflation rate (year-on-year) to increase further to 18.64 percent from 18.55 percent recorded in the month of December 2016.”
Explaining reason for the expected rise, the report said it is due to “increase in the prices of food items and other non-food items as a result of the continued pressure on the value of the Naira.”
It further noted that the “increase in the price of diesel which is predominantly used in production of goods and services will also contribute to the rising inflation rate.”
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation rate for the month of January 2017 on February 15, 2017 based on data calendar on its website.
According to the monthly Food Price Index (FPI) released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) this week, the Index averaged 173.8 points, 2.15 percent higher than the revised value for December 2016, and 16.41 percent higher than the January 2016 figure.
At its current level, the Index has reached its highest value since February 2015.
Last month’s increase reflected sharp increases in the prices of sugar, cereals and vegetable oils. The Sugar Price Index rebounded sharply by 9.9 percent in January on the heels of reports of low production conditions in the main sugar producing regions of Brazil, India and Thailand.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 3.37 percent from the previous month and represents a six-month high. The increase recorded was due to the rise in the prices of wheat, maize and rice, with wheat reflecting the highest increase amid concerns over unfavourable weather conditions.
The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was up 1.82 percent, driven by palm oil prices, reflecting concerns over supply tightness in Southeast Asia.
The FAO Dairy Index appreciated marginally by 0.20 percent from December 2016, prices of dairy products remained relatively stable across the board. The FAO Meat Price Index was marginally down by 0.06 percent.
According to the analysis of FSDH, the value of the Naira depreciated at both the inter-bank and the parallel market.
The value of the Naira lost marginally by 0.08 percent at the inter-bank market to close at $/N305.25 while it lost 2.09 percent at the parallel market to close at $/N491 at the end of January.
The depreciation recorded in the foreign exchange rate particularly in the parallel market between the two months and higher prices in the international market put further pressure on domestic prices in January 2017.
The prices of food items that FSDH Research monitored in January 2016 moved in varying directions. The prices of garri and tomatoes were up by 7.14 percent and 2.78 percent respectively; meanwhile, the prices of palm oil and fish were down by 7.14 percent and 2.08 percent respectively.
The prices of most other food items remained unchanged. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in a 0.96 percent increase in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 219.72 points, while it increases in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas &Other Fuels divisions between December 2016 and January 2017.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira crashed against the United States Dollar by N2.70 0r 0.2 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, June 29, to N1,383.63/$1 from last Friday’s exchange rate of N1,380.93/$1.
This was influenced by FX pressure on the domestic currency, which also weakened its exchange rate against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment during the session by N6.06 to N1,831.64/£1 from the previous value of N1,824.90/£1. It also depleted the Nigerian currency against the Euro by 45 Kobo, trading at N1,578.03/€1 versus the preceding session’s N1,577.58/€1.
However, it maintained stability against the greenback at the parallel market and the GTBank forex desk yesterday at N1,395/$1 and N1,387/$1, respectively.
Despite the pressure on the Naira, it is still trading within the expected range, as a result of ongoing FX reforms, stronger market liquidity, and increased transparency in the FX market.
Unlike in previous years, the improved stability is reflected in the relatively narrow spread between the official exchange rate and rates in the Bureau de Change (BDC) segment, suggesting that reforms introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) are helping to improve price discovery and reduce distortions.
Also, Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the apex bank with the capacity to support the Naira and meet the country’s external obligations, have continued to trend upward. Most recent data published on the apex bank’s website showed that reserves rose to $51.29 billion as of June 26, 2026.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) lost momentum after it dropped below $60,000, remaining under its 200-week moving average as currency markets swung following the Japanese Yen slipping to four-decade lows against the US Dollar.
Strategy, the largest public holder of bitcoin, plans to sell more than $1 billion of BTC as part of a $1.25 billion monetisation program, a sharp break from Michael Saylor’s long-held “never sell” stance. BTC traded at $59,463.89.
Dogecoin (DOGE) went down by 0.9 per cent to $0.0723, TRON (TRX) slipped by 0.8 per cent to $0.3196, Cardano (ADA) dipped 0.2 per cent to $0.1446, and Ripple (XRP) dropped 0.1 per cent to close at $1.04.
On the flip side, Solana (SOL) gained 2.5 per cent to sell at $73.99, Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.4 per cent to $1,587.51, and Binance Coin (BNB) added 0.01 per cent to sell for $552.58, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
Panic sell-offs by investors have left the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited losing weight very fast, as it further gave up 1.57 per cent on Monday.
Yesterday, only 17 equities ended on the advancers’ log, while 45 equities finished on the laggards’ chart, representing a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
All the major sectors of the bourse tasted defeat during the session, with the insurance counter down by 1.33 per cent. The banking space lost 1.22 per cent, the consumer goods index depreciated by 0.63 per cent, the industrial goods segment shed 0.39 per cent, and the energy sector tumbled by 0.06 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) stumbled by 3,682.70 points to 228,366.32 points from 232,049.02 points, and the market capitalisation slipped by N2.363 trillion to N146.542 trillion from N148.905 trillion.
Learn Africa lost 10.00 per cent to close at N9.00, MTN Nigeria also declined by 10.00 per cent to N747.00, Unilever Nigeria crashed by 10.00 per cent to N126.00, Austin Laz dropped 9.94 per cent to settle at N3.17, and Universal Insurance dipped by 9.90 per cent to quote at N28.12.
Conversely, Sovereign Trust Insurance gained 4.08 per cent to end at N2.04, Cornerstone Insurance chalked up 3.45 per cent to trade at N6.00, Neimeth appreciated by 3.03 per cent to N8.50, Livestock Feeds climbed by 1.92 per cent to N7.95, and C&I Leasing grew by 1.90 per cent to N5.35.
Business Post observed a surge in activity level on the first trading day of this week, with the trading volume, value, and number of deals up by 156.37 per cent, 137.50 per cent, and 38.50 per cent.
This was because market participants transacted 996.5 million stocks worth N43.7 billion in 61,813 deals on Monday compared with the 388.7 million stocks valued at N18.4 billion traded in 44,631 deals last Friday.
Ikeja Hotel exchanged 305.5 million shares for N13.2 billion, Access Holdings sold 289.9 million equities worth N6.6 billion, Dangote Sugar traded 29.4 million stocks valued at N1.9 billion, Chams transacted 22.0 million shares worth N87.9 million, and Zenith Bank traded 21.2 million equities for N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled higher by more than 1 per cent on Monday after attacks by the United States and Iran underscored the fragility of their interim peace deal.
Brent crude futures gained $1.16 or 1.61 per cent to sell at $73.15 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by $1.52 or 2.2 per cent to $70.75 per barrel.
The latest price movement appears to suggest that the market is concerned about a reduction in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz following attacks on two commercial vessels on Thursday and Friday last week, and a further flare-up over the weekend.
The Thursday attack on the container ship Ever Lovely prompted some shipowners to pull back and wait for additional information about how safe transiting the Strait is. The US military on Friday carried out strikes on Iran in response to the attack on the vessel.
On Saturday, an Iranian attack on a Panama-flagged oil tanker, Kiku, while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz, prompted additional strikes by the U.S. forces.
After the flare-up this weekend, the US and Iran appear to have agreed to cease attacks ahead of tentatively planned new talks this week.
Iranian and US technical teams working on the implementation of an interim peace deal are expected to meet in Doha in the coming days, even after both sides carried out strikes over the weekend that threatened to derail the accord.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said Iranian and Omani experts will start talks on redefining transit paths through the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, adding that his country will try to obstruct vessels outside of defined paths.
Analysts cautioned that traffic through the strait is far from being fully recovered, helping keep prices somewhat elevated as outbound Persian Gulf crude exports are quickly rebounding to at least 75 per cent of pre-war levels.
Middle East producers are pushing ahead with loading oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) despite fresh ship attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and renewed strikes between the US and Iran in recent days.
Saudi oil giant Aramco resumed crude oil loadings on Friday at its Ras Tanura terminal, west of the Strait of Hormuz, after they were halted for nearly four months. Loadings continued even after a helicopter belonging to the company crashed on Sunday at Ras Tanura, killing 14 nationals. The cause of the crash was unknown.
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