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Economy

Lafarge Africa Plc: Making Hay While Prices Shine

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

After four successive quarters of losses, Lafarge Africa Plc reported N17.56 billion pre-tax profit in Q4-2016 on (1) price-driven 1004bps y/y and 3290bps q/q gross margin expansion, (2) other gains/operating income of N9.97 billion (vs. losses in previous quarters), and (3) investment/finance income of N2.88 billion (highest since Q2-2015).

Of the above mentioned items that impacted the fourth quarter result, the restoration of gross margin to the pre-2015 price-crash levels (given the uncertainty of other items) will be most defining of LAFARGE’s return to profitable performance in 2017.

Consequently, we have revised 2017 PAT forecast higher to N25.8 billion, from N11.2 billion previously. The PAT is also reflective of the elimination of forex-related losses as well as relatively higher sales volume.

Cement prices in Nigeria are currently above the end-2016 levels, following the additional increases (twice) effected this quarter. We estimate LAFARGE’s realized average Nigerian price to be 42 percent above 2016 average. In addition, we look for relatively lower per tonne production cost, given the earlier-than-expected progress made with energy substitution, and considering that about 50 percent of 2017 capex outlay will be committed to delivering energy optimization.

Notwithstanding the generally modest Nigerian cement consumption outlook, we forecast LAFARGE’s Nigerian cement sales volume to increase by c.7%, as markets lost in 2016 on production challenges (which limited supply capability) are reclaimed. For reference, Q4-2016 realized volume was 39 percent and 3 percent above Q3 and Q2 levels (during which energy challenges adversely impacted production) respectively, despite the relatively higher price.

In addition to pricing and efficiency gains, we estimate 2017 EBITDA of N64.34 billion, higher than both the previous estimate of N50.2 billion, and the N29.65 billion reported in 2016.

Following the revision to our forecasts, we have increased 2017 TP to N80.56 (from N60.10) and retain BUY recommendation on 107.37% upside. At current price, the stock is trading on a forward PE of 7.8x, at 37 percent and 5 percent discount respectively to Bloomberg’s SSA and Nigerian comparables.

While acknowledging the risks to earnings recovery in the short term, we think LAFARGE’s shares have faced intense pressure and expect the market price to rise to our 2017 TP on relatively (compared to 2016) better performance.

Key risk is that notwithstanding the expected lower production cost, the strength of LAFARGE’s profitability in 2017 has greater dependence on pricing development where we think the market leader (Dangote Cement) might a pull negative surprise.

While updating on DANGCEM, we noted that the Group targets sizeable absolute Nigerian EBITDA in 2017 which is realizable under a lower price (from current level, but above 2016 average) scenario. From our sensitivity test, LAFARGE risks losing up to N9 billion of the above forecast 2017 EBITDA on N32,000-N34,000 realized average price scenario (from the N42,000 estimated).

Target price under this scenario is N62.88, representing 57.60 percent upside from market value.

http://research.cordros.com/view-reports

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget

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domestic debt servicing

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.

She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.

According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.

However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.

She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.

“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.

“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.

“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.

“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.

Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.

She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.

The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.

She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.

Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.

She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.

The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.

“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.

“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

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Economy

Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally

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Customs Street Nigerian Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.

Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.

Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.

Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.

On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.

Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.

Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.

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Economy

Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation

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Rite foods stamp black

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.

In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.

Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.

“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.

He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.

Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.

“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”

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