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Libya, Iraq Supply Disruption Raises Crude Prices

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil prices rose Thursday as supply disruptions in Libya and plans to lower output in Iraq raised fears of tighter global supplies, with Brent gaining $1.29 or 1.6 per cent to settle at $79.94 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) appreciating by $1.39 or 1.9 per cent to $75.91 a barrel.

Libya’s eastern government called force majeure on all oil production and exports, which could remove up to 1 million barrels per day of crude from the markets.

More than half of Libya’s oil production was offline on Thursday and exports were halted at several ports due to a standoff between rival political factions.

Libya’s National Oil Corporation, which controls the country’s oil resources, said yesterday that the average oil output stood at 591,024 barrels as of Wednesday, August 28, over 50 per cent of Libya’s output of 1.18 million barrels per day produced in July.

Market analysts noted that Libya’s development is much more significant to oil markets because it represents real barrels lost, effectively tightening the physical market for as long as the Libya crisis lasts.

The conflict over control of Libya’s central bank threatens a new bout of instability in the country, which is divided between eastern and western factions supported by Turkey and Russia.

Elsewhere, Iraq plans to reduce oil output in September as part of a plan to compensate for producing over the quota agreed with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies.

Iraq, which produced 4.25 million barrels per day in July, will cut output to between 3.85 million and 3.9 million barrels per day next month. Its agreed quota is 4 million barrels per day.

Oil prices were also helped by expectations that the US Federal Reserve would begin reducing interest rates next month. President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Raphael Bostic stated that as unemployment has increased more than expected and inflation has decreased further, it might be time for cuts.

The disruptions, and expectations of lower interest rates in the US, turned the attention away from signs of weak demand after data showed that US crude inventories last week fell by 846,000 barrels to 425.2 million, smaller than the expected draw.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NBS Website Blackout Mars Access to Nigerian Economy Information

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National bureau of statistics NBS

By Adedapo Adesanya

For almost a month, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website has been down, blocking access to crucial information about the Nigerian economy.

The nation’s statistics agency shut down its website after it claims it had been hacked on December 18, 2024.

Since then, important information such as capital flows into the Nigerian economy in the third quarter of 2024, as well as an update on outstanding local and foreign debt for the same period, have become inaccessible.

The website blackout occurred a day after the NBS published its Crime Experience and Security Perception Survey on December 17. According to the report, Nigerians paid a total of N2.23 trillion in ransom within one year, from May 2023 to April 2024.

There was a widespread report (excluding Business Post) that the Department of State Services (DSS) summoned the Statistician-General of the Federation, Mr Adeniran Adeyemi, based on the report.

This was later denied by the secret police.

The agency then closed the site on December 18, further warning against using any information posted on it until it was fully restored.

In its last update on X, formerly Twitter, the stats office said, “This is to inform the public that the NBS Website has been hacked and we are working to recover it. Please disregard any message or report posted until the website is fully restored. Thank you.”

This lack of information has raised worry about inflation report for December, which is usually due on January 15 as per recent trends.

The inflation numbers set the tone for decisions of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria, which should hold its first policy meeting for 2025 on January 27-28.

Analysts told this newspaper that the continued blackout on the NBS website raises concerns about credibility and trust on data that will be provided in the future.

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Energy Editors See Significant Boost in Nigeria’s Oil, Gas in Q1 2025

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Gas Flaring Solutions

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Society of Energy Editors (SEE) expects the Nigerian energy sector to witness significant developments in the first quarter of 2025.

This, according to the society, would be driven by President Bola Tinubu’s proposed N49.7 trillion budget for the year.

The budget is anchored on an increase in base crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day, expected to drive down inflation from 34.6 per cent to 15 per cent in 2025.

In its Nigeria Energy Outlook Q1 2025, the group said key areas to watch in the energy sector in the first quarter of the year include oil oil exploration and production; domestic crude refining; gas production and liquefied natural gas (LNG) export; power generation and transmission as well as labour relations.

“The government’s target to increase crude oil production is ambitious, but its feasibility hinges on addressing security challenges, particularly in the Niger Delta region.

“Nigeria plans to hold a fresh oil licensing round in 2025 focused primarily on handing out blocks that remained undeveloped, as the country battles to raise crude reserves and production,” it said in the outlook.

It added that “the federal government would have to show the necessary political will and apply a lot of push for this fresh oil licensing round to happen during the year as planned”.

On domestic refining, the organisation noted that the commencement of petroleum refining at the Dangote Refinery is expected to reduce fuel imports and ease the burden of petroleum subsidies.

However, it added that the steady supply of crude oil feedstock from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Dangote Refinery would be crucial in determining the refinery’s impact on the economy in 2025.

Nigeria spent N9.176 trillion on the importation of the Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, in nine months, from January to September 2024, rising by 60.87 percent, compared with N5.704 trillion worth of the commodity imported in the same period in 2023.

Focusing on gas production and LNG exports, the SEE projected that Nigeria’s gas sector will grow during the first quarter, driven by the government’s “Decade of Gas” initiative and the country’s ambitions to increase its gas reserves to 210 trillion cubic feet, Tcf, in 2025 and 220 Tcf by 2030.

“Gas production and supply will also increase in response to the Federal Government initiative on gas for automobiles and the need to meet the current shortfalls being experienced by power generating stations and industries,” it also projected.

According to the SEE, gas export through the Nigeria LNG Limited will be steady during the first quarter.

In the area of power generation and transmission, the Society of Energy Editors, said efforts to expand power generation and improve transmission infrastructure will continue, with a focus on increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix.

It maintained that power transmission and distribution infrastructure remained very weak with the national grid recording 12 incidents of collapse in 2024. Adding that 2025 would witness a repeat owing to poor mitigation measures aimed at tackling inherent weaknesses.

On labour relations, the society stated that the government would need to address labour concerns in the downstream and upstream petroleum sectors, as well as in the electricity sector, to maintain stability and avoid disruptions.

Listing challenges and opportunities, it noted that the government’s expectations for reducing inflation and improving the exchange rate may be challenging to achieve, given the current market realities.

It asserted that the development of the Niger Delta region, through the activities of the Niger Delta Development Commission, would be crucial in addressing the root causes of insecurity and instability in the region.

“The solid minerals sector offers significant opportunities for revenue growth and job creation, but the government will need to address the challenges of artisanal mining and ensure that the sector is developed in a sustainable and responsible manner.

“Overall, the first quarter of 2025 will be critical in setting the tone for Nigeria’s energy sector in the year ahead. The government’s policies and initiatives will need to be carefully implemented to address the challenges facing the sector and to unlock its full potential,” the report stated.

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Economy

Geo-Fluids, Afriland Properties Lift NASD Bourse by 0.13%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of Geo-Fluids Plc and Afriland Properties Plc propelled the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange up 0.13 per cent on Friday, January 10.

Investors gained N1.4 billion during the trading session after the market capitalisation of the bourse ended at N1.053 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.052 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased at the close of business by 4.07 points to wrap the session at 3,073.93 points compared with 3,069.86 points recorded at the previous session.

Geo-Fluids added 25 Kobo to its value to close at N4.85 per unit compared with the previous session’s N4.60 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 24 Kobo to close at N16.25 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N16.01 per share.

There was a 35.4 per cent fall in the volume of securities traded in the session as investors exchanged 4.3 million units compared to 6.6 million units traded in the preceding session, the value of shares traded yesterday went down by 37.4 per cent to N17.2 million from the N27.5 million recorded a day earlier, and the number of deals decreased by 47.2 per cent to 19 deals from the 36 deals recorded in the preceding day.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and Industrial and General Insurance  (IGI )Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.

IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.

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