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Economy

Meristem Analysts See January 2024 Inflation at 29.54%

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Nigeria's inflation

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Inflation in January 2024 in Nigeria is predicted to rise by 0.62 per cent to 29.54 per cent from the 28.92 per cent recorded in December 2023, according to analysts at Meristem Research.

They noted that this rise would be influenced by the continuous rise in the prices of food, as well as the effect of the weakening of the Naira against the Dollar in the foreign exchange (FX) market.

In December 2023, inflation rose for the 13th consecutive month, with food inflation soaring by 33.93 per cent on a year-on-year basis and core inflation increasing by 23.07 per cent.

Food prices have continued to go beyond the reach of consumers due to the forex crisis and insecurity in the northern part of the country, where most of the food items come from.

Farmers have been unable to go to work because bandits and kidnappers are in charge, demanding taxes for planting and harvesting if farmers must go to their farms or risk being killed.

“For January, we anticipate food inflation to continue its upward trend as the underlying drivers of the surge in food prices remain unabated.

“Our market price survey revealed increases in the prices of pasta, noodles, rice, oils, and other essential food staples, supporting our projection of higher food inflation,” a part of the report obtained by Business Post read.

The firm further stated that, “We envisage a rise in core inflation in January. This expectation is based on the continued depreciation of the Naira observed in January, which is expected to impact the prices of imported goods. The Naira depreciated by 25.12 per cent on the NAFEM window, crossing N1500/USD in January 2024.

“Hence, we project a sustained uptrend in the country’s headline inflation for the month. Given the high base effect of January 2023, we expect that the pace of increase will be low. However, the peculiarities in January (mentioned above) would likely prevent a disinflation due to the base effect.”

Meristem then said it expects the headline inflation in January 2024 to jump by 29.54 per cent versus 28.92 per cent in December 2023, the food inflation to rise by 34.88 per cent versus 33.93 per cent in December 2023, and the core inflation to increase by 23.19 per cent versus 23.07 per cent in December 2023.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers for last month on Thursday, February 15, 2024.

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Economy

FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds

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FGN Savings Bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.

Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.

According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.

These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.

Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.

However, interested investor can only  buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.

This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.

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Economy

Reps Express Readiness to Pass Tax Reform Bills

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reps summon CBN

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The House of Representatives has said it would make efforts to pass the controversial tax reform bills forwarded to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu last year.

Mr Tinubu, in a bid to improve revenue of the government, asked the parliament to pass the bills, but this has been resisted mostly by northern lawmakers and others.

At the resumption of plenary session on Tuesday in Abuja, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Abbas Tajudeen, assured that the green chamber of the legislative arm of government would prioritise the tax reform bills.

“The legislative agenda of the House for 2025 prioritises the passage of the Appropriation Bill and the Tax Reform Bills, both of which are pivotal to economic recovery and fiscal stability.

“These reforms are essential for broadening the tax base, improving compliance and reducing dependency on external borrowing.

“The House will ensure that these reforms are equitable and considerate of the needs of all Nigerians, particularly the most vulnerable,” Mr Abbas said through the Deputy Speaker, Mr Ben Kalu, who presided over the session.

He also expressed grief over the loss of lives in stampedes in Ibadan, Abuja and Anambra State last month due to hardship in the country.

Several Nigerians died in the stampedes while trying to receive palliatives given to alleviate their sufferings.

“Tragic events, such as the stampedes in Ibadan, Abuja and Okija, during the distribution of palliative aid, underline the urgent need for improved planning and safety protocols in humanitarian efforts. On behalf of the House, I extend our deepest sympathies to the families and communities affected.

“These incidents serve as a stark reminder of the socio-economic hardships facing our citizens and the imperative for policies that tackle hunger and poverty at their roots.

“Turning to the economy, 2024 presented both difficulties and opportunities. While inflation remains a pressing concern, progress in GDP growth and the positive trajectory of economic reforms provide hope for a more stable and prosperous 2025,” the Speaker said.

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Economy

NASD Index Appreciates 0.69% to 3,095.00 Points

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NASD Unlisted Security Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.69 per cent appreciation on Monday, January 13, as investors showed renewed interests in unlisted securities.

During the trading session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 21.07 points to wrap the session at 3,095.00 points compared with the 3,073.93 points recorded in the previous session.

In the same vein, the value of the local alternative stock exchange went up by N7.22 billion to close at N1.061 trillion compared with last Friday’s N1.051 trillion.

Yesterday, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc recorded a growth of N3.78 to close at N42.00 per share versus N38.22 per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc improved by 20 Kobo to end at N2.35 per unit versus the preceding closing rate of N2.15 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 1 Kobo to finish at 25 Kobo per share compared with the previous session’s 24 Kobo per share.

Conversely, Geo-Fluids Plc lost 29 Kobo to quote at N4.56 per unit compared with the preceding day’s N4.85 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc slid by 75 kobo to end the session at N15.50 per share versus the preceding closing rate of N16.25 per share.

During the session, the volume of securities traded decreased by 27.2 per cent to 3.1 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of securities slumped by 81.5 per cent to N3.2 million from N17.2 million, and the number of deals expanded by 57.9 per cent to 30 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and IGI Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.

Also, IGI Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.

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