Economy
Moody’s Downgrades Nigeria’s Ratings Over High Fiscal Deficit
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency and local-currency issuer ratings, as well as its foreign currency senior unsecured debt ratings, have been downgraded by Moody’s Investors Service to Caa1 from B3.
In a statement over the weekend, the rating agency said it has also downgraded Nigeria’s foreign currency senior unsecured MTN program rating to (P)Caa1 from (P)B3.
The company said Nigeria’s ratings were lowered due to its belief that the government’s fiscal and debt position will continue to deteriorate as it faces wide-ranging fiscal pressure, with the capacity to respond remaining constrained by the country’s long-standing institutional weaknesses and social challenges.
“Ultimately, the risk that a negative feedback loop sets in over the next couple of years between higher government borrowing needs and rising interest rates have intensified, exacerbating the policy trade-off between servicing debt and financing other key spending items,” a part of the statement said.
It further stated that, “The 2023 budget plans on an even larger fiscal deficit than in 2022, while the government’s funding options remain narrow and reliant on central bank financing.”
“In addition, the government’s lack of access to external funding sources will add to the external pressure from depressed oil production and capital outflows, thereby eroding further Nigeria’s external profile over time.
“At this stage, immediate default risk is low, assuming no sudden, unexpected events such as another shock or shift in policy direction that would raise the default risk,” Moody’s said.
In the report, Moody’s put Nigeria’s outlook at stable, noting that while a new administration could reinvigorate the reform impetus in the country after the February 25 presidential election, implementation will likely remain lengthy amid marked social and institutional constraints.
“Indeed, the government has long-held the aim of raising non-oil revenue and phasing out the costly oil subsidy, but these objectives necessitate reforms that are institutionally, socially and politically challenging to carry through. Meanwhile, funding conditions are likely to remain tight,” it noted.
Also, Moody’s has lowered Nigeria’s local currency (LC) and foreign currency (FC) country ceilings to B2 and Caa1 respectively, from B1 and B3 respectively.
The LC country ceiling at B2 remains two notches above the sovereign issuer rating, incorporating some degree of unpredictability of government actions, political risk and the reliance on a single revenue source.
The FC country ceiling at Caa1 remains two notches below the LC country ceiling, reflecting significant transfer and convertibility risks given the track record of imposition of capital controls in times of low oil prices or falling oil production.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Refinery is targeting a $50 billion valuation ahead of the planned Initial Public Offering (IPO) in Nigeria later this year.
A report by Bloomberg, quoting sources, noted that the company wants to sell up to a 10 per cent stake, potentially raising around $5 billion in one of Nigeria’s biggest capital market deals.
The 650,000-barrels-per-day refinery has transformed Nigeria’s fuel supply chain by reducing dependence on imported petroleum products.
A senior executive at the Dangote Group confirmed to Bloomberg that the projected valuation reflects the company’s internal expectations but declined to comment further on the timing or structure of the transaction.
The planned listing comes as rising global crude oil prices and stronger domestic fuel consumption improve the refinery’s commercial outlook.
The Dangote Group has also appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital, operating under the Standard Bank umbrella, will handle the international book-building process and lead engagement with foreign portfolio investors.
Vetiva Capital Management, which has advised on previous Dangote listings, will manage retail investor distribution within Nigeria, while FirstCap will focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds, according to the report
Located in the Lekki Free Zone in Lagos, the facility has a refining capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, making it Africa’s largest single-train refinery.
Since beginning large-scale production of petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel, the refinery has reshaped Nigeria’s fuel supply chain, reducing reliance on imported petroleum products and increasing local refining capacity in Africa’s biggest oil producer.
Last year, Mr Aliko Dangote, the majority stakeholder at the refinery, indicated that Nigerian investors would soon have an opportunity to buy shares directly in the refinery business, signalling a broader push to attract domestic participation in the energy sector.
The IPO is anchored by an unprecedented dividend structure that allows investors to purchase shares in Nigerian naira but receive returns in US Dollars, backed by an estimated $6.4 billion in annual petrochemical export revenues.
The prospectus has already been submitted for regulatory review, and a subscription window is expected to open by August 2026.
It will also be the first time that the Refinery will become available for public ownership. The refinery, located in the Lekki Free Trade Zone near Lagos, was commissioned in May 2023 after nearly a decade of construction and an investment of approximately $20 billion.
By February 2026, the facility had reached its full processing capacity of 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, making it the world’s largest single-train refinery and Africa’s biggest refining complex.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria is currently in talks with the World Bank for a fresh $1.25 billion loan in June 2026.
According to a document titled Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration, the proposed loan will finance ongoing economic reforms, job creation, and competitiveness.
Already, talks are at the critical stage for the loan facility expected to be presented for approval on June 26, 2026. The loan has progressed beyond the initial concept and appraisal phases.
If approved, it will come off as the second-largest loan facility after the approval of the ‘$1.5bn Reforms for Economic Stabilisation to Enable Transformation Development Policy Financing’ approved by the Bank in June 2024.
The borrower is listed as the Federal Republic of Nigeria, while the Federal Ministry of Finance will serve as the implementing agency.
This comes as the country’s debt profile remains high. As of December 31, 2025, external debt stood at $51.86 billion, while Nigeria’s total public debt in dollars is currently at $110.97 billion
The loan is now at the decision-meeting stage of the World Bank’s project cycle, a point at which the lender’s management reviews the final appraisal package and determines whether the project should proceed to the Board of Executive Directors for approval.
This stage comes after appraisal and negotiations have been concluded, with key policy actions, financing terms, and reform commitments already agreed in principle between the borrower and the World Bank team.
In the World Bank process, the decision meeting represents a near-final internal clearance, after which the project is prepared for formal Board consideration, where final approval is granted.
The World Bank document stated, “The review did authorise the team to appraise and negotiate,” meaning the project has successfully passed earlier internal checks and is advancing toward final approval.
According to the global lender, the loan is designed “to support the government’s efforts to expand access to finance, digital, and electricity services, and strengthen competitiveness through tax, trade, and agriculture reforms.”
Under President Bola Tinubu, the World Bank has approved about $9.35 billion in loans and credits for Nigeria between June 2023 and May 2026.
These approvals span multiple sectors, including power, education, healthcare, agriculture, social protection, renewable energy, MSME financing, and economic reform support.
Key packages include the $2.25 billion RESET and ARMOR reform financing in June 2024, $1.57 billion for HOPE and SPIN programmes in September 2024, and $1.08 billion for education and resilience programmes in March 2025.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc boosted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.05 per cent on Monday, May 11.
FrieslandCampina Wamco added N13.07 to sell N146.00 per share versus the previous price of N132.98 per share, and CSCS Plc rose by 10 Kobo to close at N76.00 per unit compared with last Friday’s N75.90 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation increased by N26.20 billion to N2.514 trillion from N2.488 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 48.80 points to 4,202.57 points from 4,158.77 points.
The volume of securities bought and sold by market participants decreased by 55.2 per cent yesterday to 236,921 units from 528,891 units, the value of securities slid by 51.5 per cent to N16.5 million from N34.0 million, and the number of deals contracted by 20 per cent to 20 deals from 25 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.5 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units transacted for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
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