Economy
MPC to Maintain Status Quo on Policy Variables Despite Falling Market Rates
By Afrinvestor Research
Since we released our Pre-MPC Note last week, two major developments have surfaced in the global and domestic scene with potential impacts on domestic market condition and near term outlook for monetary policy.
Whilst we consider these events important talking points as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes next week (tomorrow) to deliberate, our expectation of the outcome of the meeting remains unchanged as we anticipate committee members to overwhelmingly vote to retain policy rates at current levels.
The first major development is the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting which held midweek. Dismissing the deceleration in US inflation rate below the 2.0% target since the start of the year as a “mystery”, the US Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, guided on one additional rate hike in 2017 and three more in 2018 in addition to measures to begin slowly reducing the Fed’s US$4.5tn balance sheet.
Although the slightly hawkish statement of the US Fed caught many by surprise, markets’ reaction has so far been calm against the backdrop of the strong and synchronized global growth expansion as well as effective use of forward guidance communication by the Fed to guide on a policy path.
Thus, US equity markets, which have been on a tear this year, traded flattish on Wednesday and Thursday, although yields have risen on US bonds and Emerging Market sovereign and corporate Eurobonds. Nonetheless, we do not expect the MPC to respond as the likelihood of a large-scale capital flow reversal from emerging markets remains low as long as the US Fed sticks to its guided gradual tightening path whilst other major central banks’ policy outlook remains broadly accommodative.
Contrarily, we consider the recent developments in the domestic scene more significant to the MPC’s discourse next week. Over the last three weeks, rates have been dropping sharply in the Treasury Bills market in response to possible near term easing of monetary policy as well as reduction in supply of longer dated bills since CBN stopped offering 364-day bills at its OMO auctions.
Consequently, we have observed a bull flattening pattern (i.e. longer term rates falling faster than shorter ones) at primary and secondary market for Treasury Bills as investors aggressively position in longer-dated bills.
At the PMA held mid-week, the 364-day stop rate fell to 17.0%, 152bps lower than the August 30th Auction stop rate, compared to a 15bps and 56bps drop in 91-day and 182-day papers respectively.
As demand increases relative to supply, secondary market rates on T-bills have also declined across tenors, down 134bps M-o-M as of market close today. The bullish sentiment in the fixed income market is also noticeable in the bond market where yields have dropped 74bps on average M-o-M across benchmark bonds to 16.2%. Given market sentiments are often leading indicators of policy rate changes, we expect the MPC to take notice of recent movements in the yield curve.
However, as we noted in our Pre-MPC note last week, we believe MPC would maintain status quo on all rates next week given the need to consolidate gains on stabilizing FX and inflation rates. Our expectations are based on the following considerations:
Price level remains sticky as high base effect thins out: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Inflation report for August released today indicated Headline inflation marginally decelerated 3bps to 16.01% Y-o-Y from 16.04% in July. M-o-M CPI growth have remained elevated since the start of the year against the backdrop of a food price pressure which took Food Inflation to an all-time high of 20.3% in July 2017. With the economy now running out of high base effect driven moderation in headline inflation, our model projects inflation rate will rise for the first time since the start of the year in September. Given supposed price-anchored monetary policy regime, the MPC is not likely to cut benchmark rate in a period of rising inflation expectation.
MPR has become a less effective Monetary Policy Tool: the case for easing via benchmark rate reduction becomes weaker if the current disparity between the benchmark rate and short-term fixed income yields is taken into consideration. Although the recent bullish streak in the fixed income market has narrowed this spread, it is not enough to justify a cut in interest.
While our medium term outlook favours a gradual monetary easing, we believe the stabilization of the FX market is paramount to achieving monetary policy objectives. The FX market, despite improvements recorded so far in the year, is still in a fragile state as the CBN is yet to harmonize all rates at the official market. As such, in the event that a unified rate is not achieved, monetary easing poses a threat for FX stability. Furthermore, the current realities of Nigeria’s budget deficit, suggests the need for the fiscal authorities to continuously fund this disparity which current tightening stance enhances; though at a higher cost to government.
In light of the above, the more rational decision we foresee the MPC making is to maintain status quo and continue to consolidate on gains in the FX market. Hence, we believe the outcome of the 5th MPC meeting would be to; retain the MPR at 14.0%; retain the CRR at 22.5%; retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0%; and retain the Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A 0.11 per cent or N1.53 loss was recorded by the Nigerian Naira against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Tuesday, June 22, closing at N1,370.64/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,369.11/$1.
However, the domestic currency appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official FX window during the session by N4.69 to trade at N1,810.75/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,815.44/£1, and gained N5.37 on the Euro to sell at N1,561.02/€1 versus Monday’s exchange rate of N1,566.39/€1.
At the black market segment, the Naira traded flat against the Dollar yesterday at N1,395/$1, and at the GTBank forex desk, it also closed flat at N1,380/$1.
Daily FX update from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) indicated that forex liquidity improved, but dollar volume was surpassed by strong dollar outflows on Tuesday.
Interbank FX turnover among financial institutions and market makers experienced a significant surge, reaching $125.314 million across 106 deals at the official window, 92 per cent higher than the $65.206 million the previous day, highlighting robust market activity and growing investor confidence.
Also, Nigeria’s foreign reserves continue to grow, reaching $51.142 billion, up from $51.060 billion reported the previous day, according to the CBN’s latest update.
In the cryptocurrency market, digital currencies fell amid heavy selling in technology stocks, which kept pressure on risk assets worldwide. Also, the gauge of the Dollar climbed to a seven-month high as investors moved toward safer assets.
Leading the losers was Cardano (ADA), as it slid 2.1 per cent to $0.1511. Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.3 per cent to quote at $0.0789, Ethereum (ETH) shrank 0.9 per cent to $1,673.38, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.7 per cent to $1.10, TRON (TRX) also fell by 0.7 per cent to $0.3285, Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $69.83, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 0.2 per cent to $62,756.99, and Binance Coin (BNB) tumbled by 0.01 per cent to $579.20, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals has refuted allegations that its premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, exported to other countries, is being re-imported into Nigeria.
It was claimed that the private crude oil refiner sells PMS to other African nations, especially Togo, at a lower price to the extent that when re-imported into the country, it is still cheaper than what Dangote Refinery sells to Nigerian marketers.
Reacting via a statement on Tuesday night, the management described the allegations as “baseless and unsubstantiated” because they are not “supported by verifiable trade data, commercial logic, or the operational realities of Dangote Refinery.”
The company noted that its core mandate is to strengthen domestic supply and remains a leading provider of petroleum products in Nigeria.
“Any practice that enables imports to compete directly with its own production clearly contradicts this objective,” it stated.
Dangote Refinery said “all sales contracts and tender agreements expressly prohibit the resale or re-importation of Dangote Refinery products into Nigeria,” emphasising that “the economics of the purported trade route are fundamentally flawed.”
The organisation stated that estimated logistics costs for transporting products from the refinery to Lomé and back into Nigeria range between $82–90 per metric ton. Such additional costs would significantly erode margins and render the transaction commercially unviable.
“Dangote Refinery does not provide export discounts sufficient to offset these costs or create arbitrage opportunities between export and domestic markets. Simply put, no rational producer would incur additional shipping, storage, financing, and handling costs only for products to re-enter and compete in its primary market,” it pointed out.
The management also highlighted that the refinery maintains stringent product traceability protocols, including detailed records of lifting points, nominated vessels, counterparties, and declared destinations. These measures ensure full visibility and accountability across the supply chain.
The statement insisted that any “claim suggesting that the refinery facilitates or tolerates re-importation is inconsistent with its contractual safeguards and established compliance standards.”
The refinery said it has consistently advocated for reducing Nigeria’s dependence on imported petroleum products, underscoring that encouraging or enabling re-importation would undermine local refining efforts, strain foreign exchange reserves, and weaken national industrial growth, positions that are contrary to its core objectives.
Dangote Refinery reiterated that there is no strategic, economic, or operational basis for the claim that it exports products for re-importation into Nigeria, stressing that the allegation is entirely unfounded and does not withstand scrutiny when measured against market logic, contractual frameworks, and industry practices.
The statement concluded that “Dangote Refinery remains focused on its mission to enhance energy security, support local refining, and contribute meaningfully to Africa’s industrial development.”
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied by 1.06 per cent on renewed investor confidence after surviving a run of losing streaks.
Yesterday, some performance indicators were better compared with the previous session, with the All-Share Index (ASI) chalking up 2,540.08 points to settle at 240,743.19 points versus Monday’s 238,203.11 points, and the market capitalisation gained N1.649 trillion to close at N154.484 trillion, in contrast to the preceding day’s N152.835 trillion.
As for the sectoral performance, the energy sector was down by 0.09 per cent, but the loss was offset by the gains recorded by the others.
The insurance counter grew by 2.84 per cent, the banking and the consumer goods indices rose by 0.18 per cent each, and the industrial goods segment expanded by 0.07 per cent.
Unlike on Monday, the market breadth index was positive on Tuesday, with Customs Street closing with 33 price gainers and 23 price losers, indicating bullish investor sentiment.
Guinea Insurance improved by 10.00 per cent to N1.10, International Energy Insurance advanced by 9.89 per cent to N6.11, Tripple Gee soared by 9.82 per cent to N3.69, Cornerstone Insurance climbed 9.76 per cent to N6.75, and Sovereign Trust Insurance surged by 8.63 per cent to N2.14.
On the flip side, Red Star Express dropped 9.96 per cent to trade at N24.85, Premier Paints depreciated by 9.93 per cent to N6.43, Trans-Nationwide Express declined by 9.82 per cent to N4.04, Royal Exchange shrank by 9.38 per cent to N1.45, and Abbey Mortgage Bank crashed by 9.29 per cent to N28.12.
Market activity improved during the trading day, with market participants transacting 564.9 million shares valued at N39.4 billion in 49,230 deals compared with the 475.8 million shares worth N36.5 billion traded in 63,567 deals a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the number of deals by 22.55 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 18.73 per cent and 7.95 per cent, respectively.
Fidelity Bank led the activity chart after a turnover of 59.4 million units worth N1.1 billion, Zenith Bank traded 49.5 million units valued at N5.9 billion, Dangote Sugar exchanged 43.1 million units for N3.1 billion, Chams sold 39.5 million units worth N156.5 million, and Access Holdings transacted 30.7 million units valued at N703.6 million.
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