Economy
MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%
Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.
At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.
It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.
In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.
It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.
The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.
“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.
It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.
The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.
In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.
According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.
“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.
“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.
A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.
The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.
“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.
“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.
“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.
“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Italian oil major, Eni, is positioning to embark on deepwater exploration investment in Nigeria after President Bola Tinubu met its chief executive Officer, Mr Claudio Descalzi, in Abuja to discuss the company’s deepwater expansion plans.
This follows the recent conversion of Oil Prospecting Licence 245 (OPL 245) into new development and exploration licenses.
Under an agreement with the Federal Government of Nigeria, OPL 245 has been converted into two Petroleum Mining Leases (PML 102 and 103) and two Petroleum Prospecting Leases (PPL 2011 and 2012), following a mutually agreed settlement of claims and the discontinuation of arbitration proceedings at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).
Nigerian Agip Exploration Limited will operate the licenses alongside partners Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited and Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCO).
The conversion clears the path for the development of the Zabazaba and Etan deepwater fields under PML 102 and 103.
The Etan-Zabazaba project is estimated to contain approximately 500 MMbbl of reserves and is planned around a 150,000-bopd floating production, storage and offloading (FPSO) facility. Associated gas volumes of up to 200 MMscf/d at peak are expected to be exported to Nigeria LNG.
Eni, which has operated in Nigeria since 1962, also discussed its broader offshore portfolio, including interests in the Abo and Bonga fields and Nigeria LNG.
The company recently increased its stake in OML 118 to 15 per cent, reinforcing its position in Nigeria’s deepwater sector, where it currently produces approximately 55,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on an equity basis.
Business Post reported earlier this week that Nigeria has broken up the OPL 245 oil block into four new assets to be operated by Eni and Shell, potentially settling the future of the field at the centre of one of the oil industry’s biggest historic corruption trials.
The agreement clears the way for the development of OPL 245, one of Nigeria’s biggest deepwater reserves that has remained untapped for almost three decades amid overlapping lawsuits in multiple countries.
The block is estimated to hold up to 9 billion barrels of oil equivalent in reserves, enough to rival Nigeria’s entire proven reserves if fully developed.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Executive Director for Personal and Private Banking at Stanbic IBTC, Mr Olu Delano, has stressed the need to link macroeconomic trends to personal financial goals.
At the 2026 Regional Economic Outlook Series of Stanbic IBTC recently, he said, “Whether planning for retirement, funding education abroad, or expanding a business, improved stability creates opportunities. But those opportunities require careful structuring around foreign exchange dynamics, inflation trends, and interest rate movements.”
Business Post reports that the regional investor summit was designed to provide high-net-worth individuals, investors, business leaders, and senior executives with clarity in a rapidly evolving economic environment.
Hosted in Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt, the series served as a strategic platform for translating Nigeria’s reform momentum into practical investment and business decisions.
It featured a keynote address by Professor Adedipe, whose insights set a strong analytical foundation for the conversations that followed. His presentation unpacked structural reforms, fiscal recalibration, and the direction of monetary policy, offering attendees a comprehensive perspective on Nigeria’s growth trajectory and the discipline required to sustain macroeconomic stability.
Across all three cities, Stanbic IBTC’s subject matter experts and industry professionals moved the discussion from macroeconomic signals to market strategy. Sessions were structured to bridge economic context with sector-specific opportunities, portfolio construction frameworks, and risk management considerations. The focus extended beyond understanding the environment to making informed, disciplined decisions within it.
A recurring theme throughout the summit was the evolving monetary policy cycle. Discussions examined the Central Bank of Nigeria’s tight stance in addressing inflationary pressures and stabilising the currency.
Participants also considered the potential implications of a gradual policy easing cycle, particularly for fixed income instruments, equity positioning, and broader asset allocation strategies. Emphasis was placed on timing, selectivity, and portfolio resilience.
Beyond markets, the conversations addressed the practical realities of wealth and business strategy. High net worth individuals gained clarity on diversification, currency exposure, and inflation management, while business leaders explored how improving macroeconomic stability can support capital allocation decisions and long-term expansion plans.
The chief executive of Stanbic IBTC Asset Management, Ms Busola Jejelowo, reflected on the quality of engagement across the regions.
She noted that the depth of questions and analytical rigour demonstrated a maturing investment culture and a growing appetite for data-driven strategies.
According to her, the series was not only about presenting forecasts, but about equipping clients with structured frameworks for navigating uncertainty.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Coronation Registrars Limited processed N1.28 trillion in dividends for the year 2025, representing over 40 per cent of the total dividends distributed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
This information was revealed by the company in its 2025 performance scorecard, highlighting its continued role in supporting transparency, efficiency, and investor confidence within Nigeria’s capital market.
According to the company, the performance underscores its scale and the trust placed in it by leading publicly listed companies, which it helps in administering dividend processing. Other functionalities include managing shareholder records, corporate actions, and investor communications while ensuring compliance with regulations of the NGX and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Coronation Registrars also recorded 34.8 per cent market share of the NGX by market capitalisation, while maintaining 64 per cent coverage of companies listed on the NGX Premium Board, reflecting strong partnerships with some of Nigeria’s largest and most influential issuers.
Operationally, the registrar facilitated 1.99 million buy and sell transactions in 2025, while managing 2.91 million shareholder accounts across its registrar’s portfolio.
The organisation also continued to address the longstanding issue of unclaimed dividends. In 2025, N3.67 billion in legacy unclaimed dividends was successfully returned to investors, helping reconnect shareholders with previously outstanding entitlements.
To further strengthen shareholder record accuracy and service efficiency, Coronation Registrars processed over 513,000 Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and shareholder account updates, including Clearing House Number (CHN) updates and record changes.
Commenting on the milestone, the Managing Director of Coronation Registrars Limited, Mr Seyi Owuturo, stated, “Our 2025 scorecard reflects the responsibility we carry as custodians of shareholder records and facilitators of dividend distribution for many of Nigeria’s leading companies. We remain committed to improving investor access, strengthening operational efficiency, and supporting the continued development of Nigeria’s capital market.”
Coronation Registrars said it remains focused on leveraging technology, operational excellence, and strong issuer partnerships to deliver reliable registry services while supporting the evolving needs of shareholders and listed companies.
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