Economy
MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%
Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.
At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.
It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.
In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.
It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.
The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.
“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.
It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.
The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.
In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.
According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.
“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.
“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.
A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.
The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.
“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.
“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.
“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.
“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The supply of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), also known as petrol, increased by 55.4 per cent on a month-on-month basis to 71.5 million litres per day in November 2025 from 46 million litres per day in October.
This was contained in the November 2025 fact sheet of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on Monday.
The data showed that the nation’s consumption also increased by 44.5 per cent or 37.4 million litres to 52.1 million litres per day in November 2025, against 28.9 million litres in October.
The significant increase in petrol supply last month was on account of the imports by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited into the Nigerian market from both the domestic and the international market.
Domestic refineries supplied in the period stood at 17.1 million litres per day, while the average daily consumption of PMS for the month was 52.9 million litres per day.
The NMDPRA noted that no production activities were recorded in all the state-owned refineries, which included Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna refineries, in the period, as the refineries remained shut down.
According to the report, the imports were aimed at building inventory and further guaranteeing supply during the peak demand period.
Other reasons for the increase, according to the NMDPRA, were due to “low supply recorded in September and October 2025, below the national demand threshold; the need for boosting national stock level to meet the peak demand period of end of year festivities, and twelve vessels programmed to discharge into October, which spilled into November.”
On gas, the average daily gas supply climbed to 4.684 billion standard cubic feet per day in November 2025, from the 3.94 bscf/d average processing level recorded in October.
The Nigeria LNG Trains 1-6 also maintained a stable processing output of 3.5 bscf/d in November 2025, but utilisation improved slightly to 73.7 per cent compared with 71.68 per cent in October.
The increase, according to the report, was driven by higher plant utilisation across processing hubs and steady export volumes from the Nigeria LNG plant in Bonny.
“As of November 2025, Nigeria’s major gas processing facilities recorded improved output and utilisation levels, with the Nigeria LNG Trains 1-6 processing 3.50 billion standard cubic feet per day at a utilisation rate of 73.70 per cent.
“Gbaran Ubie Gas Plant processed 1.250 bscf per day, operating at 71.21 per cent utilisation, while the MPNU Bonny River Terminal recorded a throughput of 0.690 bscf per day during the period. Processing activities at the Escravos Gas Plant stood at 0.680 bscf per day, representing a 62 per cent utilisation rate, whereas the Soku Gas Plant emerged as the top performer, processing 0.600 bscf per day at 96.84 per cent utilisation,” it stated.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The proposed share reconstruction of a local gaming firm, Secure Electronic Technology (SET), has been suspended.
The Lagos-based company decided to shelve the exercise after negotiations with potential investors crumbled like a house of cards.
Secure Electronic Technology was earlier in talks with some foreign investors interested in the organisation.
Plans were underway to restructure the shares of the company, which are listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
However, things did not go as planned as the potential investors pulled out, leaving the board to consider others ways to move the firm forward.
Confirming this development, the company secretary, Ms Irene Attoe, in a statement, said the board would explore other means to keep the company running to deliver value to shareholders.
“This is to notify the NGX and the investing public that a meeting of the board of SET held on Tuesday, December 16, 2025, as scheduled, to consider the status of the proposed share reconstruction and recapitalisation as approved by the members at the Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) held on April 16, 2025.
“After due deliberations, the board wishes to announce that the proposed share reconstruction will not take place as anticipated due to the inability of the parties to reach a convergence on the best and mutually viable terms.
“Thus, following an impasse in the negotiations, and the investors’ withdrawal from the transaction, the board has, in the interest of all members, decided to accept these outcomes and move ahead in the overall interest of the business.
“The board is committed to driving the strategic objectives of SEC and to seeking viable opportunities for sustainable growth of the company,” the disclosure stated.
Business Post reports that the share price of SET crashed by 3.85 per cent on Tuesday on Customs Street on Tuesday to 75 Kobo. Its 52-week high remains N1.33 and its one-year low is 45 Kobo. Today, investors transacted 39,331,958 units.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Clea, a blockchain-powered platform that allows African importers to pay international suppliers in USD while settling locally, has officially launched.
During its pilot phase, Clea processed more than $4 million in cross-border transactions, demonstrating strong early demand from businesses navigating the complexities of global trade.
Clea addresses persistent challenges that African importers have long struggled with, including limited FX access, unpredictable exchange rates, high bank charges, fraudulent intermediaries, and payment delays that slow or halt shipments. The continent also faces a trade-finance gap estimated at over $120 billion annually, limiting importers’ ability to access the FX and financial infrastructure needed for timely international payments by offering fast, transparent, and direct USD settlements, completed without intermediaries or banking bottlenecks.
Founded by Mr Sheriff Adedokun, Mr Iyiola Osuagwu, and Mr Sidney Egwuatu, Clea was created from the team’s own experiences dealing with unreliable international payments. The platform currently serves Nigerian importers trading with suppliers in the United States, China, and the UAE, with plans to expand into additional trade corridors.
The platform will allow local payments in Naira with instant access to Dollars as well as instant, same-day, or next-day settlement options and transparent, traceable transactions that reduce fraud risk.
Speaking on the launch, Mr Adedokun said, “Importers face unnecessary stress when payments are delayed or rejected. Clea eliminates that uncertainty by offering reliable, secure, and traceable payments completed in the importer’s own name, strengthening supplier confidence from day one.”
Mr Osuagwu, co-founder & CTO, added, “Our goal is to make global trade feel as seamless as a local transfer. By connecting local currencies to global transactions through blockchain technology, we are removing long-standing barriers that have limited African importers for years.”
According to a statement shared with Business Post, Clea is already working with shipping operators who refer merchants to the platform and is also engaging trade associations and logistics networks in key import hubs. The company remains fully bootstrapped but is open to strategic investors aligned with its mission to build a trusted global payment network for African businesses.
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