Economy
MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%
Modupe Gbadeyanka
As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.
At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.
It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.
In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.
It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.
The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.
“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.
It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.
The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.
In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.
According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).
“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.
“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.
“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.
A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.
The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.
“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.
“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.
“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.
“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.
Economy
CBN Grants IOCs 100% Access to Export Proceeds, Ends Cash Pooling
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has removed the cash pooling requirement for International Oil Companies (IOCs), allowing them to fully repatriate their export proceeds through Authorised Dealer Banks (ADBs).
Previously in 2024, the apex bank required IOCs to repatriate export earnings into Nigeria, but only 50 per cent could be accessed immediately (via banks) while the other 50 per cent had to stay in Nigeria for 90 days before they could move it.
This was called a cash pooling requirement, designed to keep more foreign currency (like Dollars) inside Nigeria temporarily to support FX liquidity.
However, the apex bank, in a circular signed by the Director, Trade and Exchange Department, Mr Musa Nakorji, disclosed that, to further liberalise and deepen the market in line with current realities, IOCs are now granted unfettered access to their repatriated export proceeds.
“Accordingly, IOCs may repatriate 100 per cent of their export proceeds through ADBs, which are required to ensure proper documentation and submit monthly reports to the Director, Trade and Exchange Department.
“This provision supersedes all previous circulars issued by the Bank on cash pooling.
“All Authorised Dealer Banks are advised to note and comply accordingly, as this directive takes immediate effect.”
The development means more flexibility for foreign oil companies as they can now move their money freely and meet international obligations faster, while it reduces exposure to FX risks in Nigeria. This makes Nigeria more attractive to foreign investors, especially in the oil and gas sector, at a time when the global oil market is facing turbulence from the Middle East war triggered by the US and Israel against Iran.
This indicates that the apex bank is making do of its promise to shift towards a more market-driven FX system, where there are fewer controls and less forced retention of foreign currency. This could help boost investor confidence since they will have more control over their money flows.
However, this comes with potential risks as the country could see less short-term Dollar supply staying in the country and may invite pressure on the Naira if outflows exceed inflows.
Economy
Private Debt Booms in Africa’s Startup Ecosystem in 2025—Report
By Adedapo Adesanya
Debt has emerged as a fast-growing asset class for the startup funding landscape in Africa, according to a new report by the African Private Capital Association (AVCA).
The 2025 Private Capital Activity in Africa report showed that Africa emerged as the only global region to record growth in private capital deal volume in 2025, underscoring the continent’s resilience amid a challenging global investment climate.
For startups, raising funds signals validation of their business model, market potential, and growth trajectory, while also providing the financial runway needed to scale operations, invest in innovation, and compete effectively. This can be done via a number of means, including bootstrapping, venture capital, private equity, debt financing, crowdfunding, accelerators, grants, corporate investments, initial public offerings (IPOs), and revenue-based financing, among others.
The data showed that private debt emerged as a fast-growing asset class, with deal volumes surging by 57 per cent year-on-year.
The growth was driven largely by the rising use of venture debt, positioning private debt alongside private equity and venture capital as a key financing channel in Africa.
The report put total investment at $5.1 billion, reflecting a slight dip in value but sustained investor appetite across the continent. The data showed that deal activity rose by 8 per cent year-on-year to 530 transactions, even as global deal volumes declined by 7 per cent.
IPOs also saw modest growth, with four listings completed during the year.
Domestic investors played a critical role in driving liquidity, accounting for 68 per cent of private capital acquisitions.
International investors made up the remaining 32 per cent, led by Asian strategic buyers seeking to expand their footprint in African markets.
The report highlighted a shift in strategy among fund managers, who increasingly focused on smaller mid-market deals as global financial conditions tightened.
Transactions valued between $50 million and $99 million doubled during the year, signalling a move away from larger, capital-intensive investments.
Sectoral activity remained dominated by financial services, particularly fintech, which accounted for 82 per cent of transactions within the sector.
The information sector ranked as the second most active, supporting investments across finance, healthcare, retail and logistics.
Regionally, Southern Africa maintained its position as the most active investment hub, while East and North Africa recorded strong performances, buoyed by growth in energy and information technology investments.
Africa’s exit market also showed significant improvement, with 81 exits recorded in 2025, representing a 27 per cent increase from the previous year and the second-highest level on record.
This contrasted sharply with a 15 per cent decline in global exit activity over the same period.
Trade buyers remained the dominant exit route, accounting for 38 per cent of transactions, while sponsor-to-sponsor deals reached a record 26 per cent, reflecting increased depth in the secondary market.
Despite the strong deal and exit performance, fundraising declined by 34 per cent year-on-year to $2.7 billion, mirroring global liquidity pressures.
Development finance institutions remained central to the ecosystem, contributing 64 per cent of total commitments.
However, domestic capital continued to deepen, with African institutional investors accounting for 21 per cent of commitments.
Sovereign wealth funds and pension funds led this trend, reflecting a growing shift towards locally sourced capital.
Commenting on the findings, AVCA chief executive, Mrs Abi Mustapha-Maduakor, said the data reflects a continent increasingly decoupling from global investment headwinds.
“This year’s report tells a clear story: Africa is decoupling from the global slowdown. Stronger exit performance, deeper participation from domestic institutional capital, and sustained commitments from development finance institutions all point to a maturing ecosystem,” she said.
She added that the momentum is expected to build further as investors increase exposure to sectors driving Africa’s next phase of economic transformation.
Economy
NASD OTC Bourse Climbs 0.75% as Gainers Dominate Trading
By Adedapo Adesanya
Four price gainers buoyed the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.75 per cent on Thursday, March 26.
During the session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N8.87 to sell at N110.00 per unit compared with the previous day’s N101.13 per unit, Golden Capital Plc rose by 63 Kobo to N13.00 per share from N12.37 per share, Geo-Fluids Plc appreciated by 29 Kobo to N3.18 per unit from N2.89 per unit, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc increased by 2 Kobo to 52 Kobo per share from 50 Kobo per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation added N18.91 billion to close at N2.531 trillion versus the previous session’s N2.512 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) grew by 31.61 points to 4,230.46 points from 4,198.85 points.
The volume of securities went down by 84.4 per cent to 342,825 units from 2.2 million units, the value of securities decreased by 50.7 per cent to N23.0 million from N46.7 million, and the number of deals shrank by 27.0 per cent to 27 deals from 37 deals.
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 39.3 million units sold for N2.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units valued at N1.2 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 6.5 million units traded for N1.2 billion.
Resourcery Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units worth N415.7 million, followed by Infrastructure Credit Plc with 400 million units exchanged for N1.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 133.0 million units transacted for N511.1 million.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn











