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MPC Meeting: Experts Predict Rate Cut to 13%

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Modupe Gbadeyanka

As the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) commences today, experts at FSDH Research are optimistic that the committee will likely support the reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points.

At its last meeting on May 20 and 21, 2019, the MPC retained the benchmark interest rate at 13.50 percent, and retained the asymmetric corridor of +200/-500 basis points around the MPR.

It also left both the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.5 percent; and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.

Within the last few weeks, the CBN has issued two important directives to banks within geared towards stimulating lending to the real sector of the economy to boost economic activity.

In its report, FSDH Research said members of the MPC will likely vote to reduce the policy rates because an increase was not an option under the current economic situation in the country.

It said the short-term outlook of the inflation rate (which points to a declining trend, other things being equal), stability in the foreign exchange rate, and the drive of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) and the CBN to stimulate growth in the economy all support a rate cut.

The investment firm said such a cut would add weight to the implementation of the CBN’s 5-year strategic plan.

“FSDH Research anticipates a 50 basis points reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), as well as a possible adjustment to the asymmetric rates around the MPR,” the report said.

It noted that developments in the global economy also favour an interest rate cut in the short-term and expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve System to lower the Federal Funds Rate by 0.25 percent at its next meeting later this month.

The firm explained that this would aim to provide additional incentive for the global economy following signs of economic slowdown.

In the June 2019 edition of its Global Economic Prospects (GEP), the World Bank downgraded the global growth forecast for 2019 by 0.3% to 2.6 percent. The downward revision reflects weaker-than-expected international trade and investment during the first half of the year. The growth in sub-Saharan Africa was also significantly lower than expected. The 2019 growth forecast for Nigeria is now 2.1%, lower than the previous forecast of 2.2 percent.

According to FSDH Research, the short-term forecast indicates that the inflation rate in Nigeria may continue to trend downwards until October 2019. This is based on the assumptions that there will be no adjustments to the electricity tariff or the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).

“Although we stress that there is a need for these prices to increase, the FGN may not be keen to an adjustment in the short-term.

“Should the increase take place, our projections show that it will shift the inflation curve by 2.5 percent. The impact of the implementation of the new National Minimum Wage on the inflation rate is minimal. Implications of the foregoing are that there may not be pressure on the MPC to raise the policy rate with a view to taming inflationary pressure.

“The CBN is already adopting moral suasion to encourage investment in agriculture to boost production and yields in an attempt to douse a spike in food prices which would place upward pressure on the inflation rate,” it said.

A major pressure point for the FGN at the moment is the high interest expenses relative to FGN revenue. Although the major cause of this problem is government’s low revenue, the low interest rate environment since January 2019 has helped the Debt Management Office (DMO) to raise cheaper debt for the government than before. Unless there is internal or external shock, CBN policies may continue to favour a low interest rate. This may also stimulate lending to non-oil sectors of the economy, provided there are complementary fiscal policies which will improve the business environment.

The negative impact of low growth in the global economy on the price and demand of crude oil may have a negative impact on the exchange rate.

“However, the current external reserve position at over $45billion may provide short-term stability for the exchange rate. In its July 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised downwards its forecast for Brent crude oil price to $66.51/b in 2019. The data shows that the price of crude oil fell from a peak of $77.06/b in May 2019 to $64.12/b in June.

“We also note that an increase in policy rate may not address the crude oil price. Intervention by the

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the way of a production cut may also provide short-term stability for the crude oil price.

“While FSDH Research notes there are a number of structural challenges in the economy at the moment that can reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy, there are strong indications that the MPC members may vote to reduce the MPR to 13 percent.

“The market should not be surprised if the MPC also announces a reduction in the rate of the Standing Deposit Facility (SDF) of the banks with the CBN. It is possible that the MPC will maintain the Liquidity Ratio and CRR at the current level,” the report said.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Lekki Deep Sea Port Reaches 50% Designed Operational Capacity

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Lekki Deep Sea Port

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Managing Director of Lekki Port LFTZ Enterprise Limited, Mr Wang Qiang, says the port has reached half of its designed operational capacity, with steady growth in container throughput since September 2025, reflecting increasing confidence by shipping lines and cargo owners in Nigeria’s first deep seaport.

“We already reached 50 per cent of our capacity now, almost 50 per cent of the port capacity.

“There is consistent improvement in the number of 20ft equivalent units (TEUs) handled monthly,” he said.

Mr Qiang explained further that efficient multimodal connectivity remains critical to sustaining and accelerating growth at the port.

According to him, barge operations have become an important evacuation channel and currently account for about 10 per cent of cargo movement from the port.

Mr Qiang mentioned that the ongoing Lagos–Calabar Coastal Road project would help ease congestion and improve access to the port.

He said that rail connectivity remained essential, particularly given the scale of industrial activities emerging within the Lekki corridor.

He said that Nigeria Government was concerned about the cargoes moving through rail and that the development would enhance more cargoes distribution outside the port.

Mr Qiang reiterated that Lekki port was a fully automated terminal, noting that delays may persist until all stakeholders, including government agencies, fully aligned with end-to-end digital processes.

He explained that customs procedures, particularly physical cargo examinations, and other port services should be fully digitalised to significantly reduce cargo dwell time.

“We must work together very closely with customers and all categories of operations for automation to yield results.

“Integration between the customs system, the terminal operating system and customers is already part of an agreed implementation schedule.

“For automation to work efficiently, all players must be ready — customers, government and every stakeholder. Only then can we have a fantastic system,” Mr Qiang said.

He also stressed that improved connectivity would allow the port to effectively double capacity through performance optimisation without expanding its physical footprint.

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Economy

Investors Reaffirm Strong Confidence in Legend Internet With N10bn CP Oversubscription

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legend internet shares

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The series 1 of the N10 billion Commercial Paper (CP) issuance of Legend Internet Plc recorded an oversubscription of 19.7 per cent from investors.

This reaffirmed the strong confidence in the company’s financial stability and growth trajectory.

The exercise is a critical component of Legend Internet’s N10 billion multi-layered financing programme, designed to support its medium- to long-term growth.

Proceeds are expected to be used for broadband infrastructure expansion to deepen nationwide penetration, optimise the organisation’s working capital for operational efficiency, strategic acquisitions that will strengthen its market position and accelerate service innovation.

The telecommunications firm sees the acceptance of the debt instruments as a response to its performance, credit profile, and disciplined operational structure, noting it also reflects continued trust in its ability to execute on its strategic vision for nationwide digital infrastructure expansion.

“The strong investor participation in our Series 1 Commercial Paper issuance is both encouraging and validating. It demonstrates the market’s belief in our financial integrity, operational strength, and long-term vision for digital infrastructure growth. This support fuels our commitment to building a more connected, competitive, and digitally enabled Nigeria.

“This milestone is not just a financing event; it is a strategic enabler of our expansion plans, working capital needs, and future acquisitions. We extend our sincere appreciation to our investors, advisers, and market partners whose confidence continues to propel Legend Internet forward,” the chief executive of Legend Internet, Ms Aisha Abdulaziz, commented.

Also commenting, the Chief Financial Officer of Legend Internet, Mr Chris Pitan, said, “This achievement is powered by our disciplined financing framework, which enables us to scale sustainably, innovate continuously, and consistently meet the evolving needs of our customers.

“We remain committed to building a future where every connection drives opportunity, productivity, and growth for communities across Nigeria.”

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Economy

Tinubu to Present 2026 Budget to National Assembly Friday

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N6.2trn Supplementary Budget

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu will, on Friday, present the 2026 Appropriation Bill to a joint session of the National Assembly.

The presentation, scheduled for 2:00 pm, was conveyed in a notice issued on Wednesday by the Office of the Clerk to the National Assembly.

According to the notice, all accredited persons are required to be at their duty posts by 11:00 am on the day of the presentation, as access into the National Assembly Complex will be restricted thereafter for security reasons.

The notice, signed by the Secretary, Human Resources and Staff Development, Mr Essien Eyo Essien, on behalf of the Clerk to the National Assembly, urged all concerned to ensure strict compliance with the arrangements ahead of the President’s budget presentation.

The 2026 budget is projected at N54.4 trillion, according to the approved 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) and Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

Meanwhile, President Tinubu has asked the National Assembly to repeal and re-enact the 2024 appropriation act in separate letters to the Senate and the House of Representatives on Wednesday and read during plenary by the presiding officers.

The bill was titled Appropriation (Repeal and Re-enactment Bill 2) 2024, involving a total proposed expenditure of N43.56 trillion.

In a letter dated December 16, 2025, the President said the bill seeks authorisation for the issuance of a total sum of N43.56 trillion from the Consolidated Revenue Fund of the Federation for the year ending December 31, 2025.

A breakdown of the proposed expenditure shows N1.74 trillion for statutory transfers, N8.27 trillion for debt service, N11.27 trillion for recurrent (non-debt) expenditure, and N22.28 trillion for capital expenditure and development fund contributions.

The President said the proposed legislation is aimed at ending the practice of running multiple budgets concurrently, while ensuring reasonable – indeed unprecedentedly high – capital performance rates on the 2024 and 2025 capital budgets.

He explained that the bill also provides a transparent and constitutionally grounded framework for consolidating and appropriating critical and time-sensitive expenditures undertaken in response to emergency situations, national security concerns, and other urgent needs.

President Tinubu added that the bill strengthens fiscal discipline and accountability by mandating that funds be released strictly for purposes approved by the National Assembly, restricting virement without prior legislative approval, and setting conditions for corrigenda in cases of genuine implementation errors.

The bill, which passed first and second reading in the House of Representatives, has been referred to the Committee on Appropriations for further legislative action.

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