Economy
Naira Stability Buoys Nigeria’s Consumer Confidence Index in Q2—Report
By Dipo Olowookere
A new report released by South Africa-based Nielsen Africa has revealed Nigeria’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for the second quarter of 2018 recorded a very healthy increase of nine points to 122, while Ghana’s CCI for the same quarter dropped 12 points to 108.
In an emailed statement to Business Post, Nielsen Africa noted that in terms of Nigeria’s performance, its Sub Saharan Africa chief, Mr Bryan Sun, submitted that, “The stability of forex rates and a steady Naira has led to stable retail prices of most manufactured goods and imported staples, resulting in a recovery in confidence levels in Nigeria. The improvements seen in the economic environment are reflected in the overall enhanced sentiment, with 83% of Nigerians describing the state of their personal finances over the next year as excellent or good.”
He stated further that this has resulted in a more positive outlook in terms of Nigerian consumers immediate-spending intentions, which has risen to 48% (up from 38% in Q1) who say now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they need or want.
This increasingly positive sentiment is also reflected in their job prospects, with 67% viewing them as excellent or good (up from 56% in Q1’18) and 29% as not so good or bad.
More cash, more spend
Looking at whether Nigerians have spare cash, a majority of 54% said yes, up nine points from the previous quarter, while 46% said no. Looking at what their spending priorities are once they do have spare cash, the highest number 86% would put it in savings followed by 82% on home improvements, 72% on new clothes and 67% would use their spare cash for both out of home entertainment and investing in shares and mutual funds.
When asked about the changes in their spending to save on household expenses, compared to this time last year, 80% of Nigerians agreed that they have changed their spending habits.
In terms of the actions they took to save money last year, the highest number (66%) said they spent less on at home entertainment, followed by 57% who took less holidays, 42% who spent less on new clothes and 39% who delayed the replacement of major household items.
Some of the major concerns driving this more cautionary mindset include 19% who think economy is their biggest concern over the next six months, whereas 12% consider food prices and 11% said work/ life balance is their biggest concern. When asked what their second biggest concern would be over the next six months, 19% said food prices, 13% said work/life balance and 12% mentioned job security.
Growing uncertainty in Ghana
From a stable confidence level in Q1’18, Ghana dropped 12 points this quarter to 108, the lowest since quarter 3, 2016.
Mr Sun comments; “Though consumer confidence in Ghana has declined in Q2’18, it still leans on the positive side, 100 being the neutral point on the index. The declining economic growth in Ghana, subdued performance in the non-oil and industrial sector, and poor agricultural performance has led to declining confidence levels this quarter.”
He adds that this uncertain sentiment is reflected by the six point drop in Ghanaians, down to 79%, who describe the state of their personal finances over the next year as excellent or good, and 17% (increase of 10% from Q1’18) who say that state of their personal finances is “not so good” or “bad”.
“It’s therefore no surprise that Ghanaian consumers’ immediate-spending intentions have declined, with only 35% of respondents (down from 48% in Q1’18) who say now is a good or excellent time to purchase what they need or want, versus the 61% who said it was not,” reports Mr Sun.
This declining sentiment is also reflected in Ghanaians’ job prospects, which has dropped 11 points to 54% who view them as excellent or good and a 10 point rise to 39% who think their job prospects are not so good or bad compared to the previous quarter.
Disposable income
Looking at whether Ghanaians have spare cash to spend, there was an even 50/50 split between those respondents who said yes and no. Looking at what their spending priorities are once they do have spare cash, the highest number 78% would spend it on home improvements, 77% would put it into savings and 61% would spend on new clothes.
When asked about the changes in their spending to save on household expenses, compared to this time last year, 61% of Ghanaians agreed that they have changed their spending habits. In terms of the actions they took to save money last year, the highest number (49%) said they spent less on at home entertainment, followed by 48% who took less holidays, 32% who delayed the replacement of major household items and 31% who spent less of new clothes.
The factors driving this more cautionary mindset are embodied in Ghanaians biggest and second biggest concerns over the next six months. The highest number of respondents (14%) said health is their biggest concern, followed by work/life balance (13%), and food prices and the economy (both at 12%).
When asked about their second biggest concern over the next six months, 16% of respondents said work/life balance, 12% said their kids’ education/welfare, and food prices and higher fuel prices both recorded 11%.
Elaborating on these results, Sun says: “Despite the decline in confidence levels, Ghana’s outlook is still positive. A strong domestic demand and favourable performance on oil, cocoa, and gold, coupled with ongoing investment in the country, gives hope for a brighter second half in 2018 for the country, resulting in a revival of consumer sentiments and spend”.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices climbed about 2 per cent to a one-month high on Tuesday after the US reportedly reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, which will reduce oil flows from the region through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose by $1.43 or 1.7 per cent to settle at $84.73 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by $1.20 or 1.5 per cent to $79.34 a barrel.
Brent closed at its highest since June 12, and WTI at its highest since June 15. The closing price increase kept Brent in technically overbought territory for a second day in a row for the first time since March.
Before the Iran war, about 20 per cent of global oil supplies flowed through the strait.
US President Donald Trump stepped back from a proposal to charge a 20 per cent fee to guard the Strait of Hormuz as part of the conflict with Iran, saying he would instead seek investment deals with Gulf states.
US forces had carried out waves of attacks for the third night after Iran said it had closed the strait. President Trump on Monday reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed the fee, but hours before the fee was to take effect, the American President said the strait was open to all shipping traffic except that of Iran.
The renewed attacks have fed doubts that a memorandum of understanding signed last month will lead to a permanent halt in the war that has disrupted global energy supplies and stoked inflation fears.
Data showed that US consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June as energy prices retreated, but financial markets still expect an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Tuesday vowed to “do my job” if challenged by President Trump, who has said he wants the US central bank to cut interest rates and boost economic growth.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 564,000 barrels in the week ending July 10. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 399,000 barrels.
Although commercial crude oil inventories excluding the SPR have been falling rapidly for three months now, shedding just over 60 million barrels over the last twelve weeks, US crude inventories are only down 9.2 million barrels so far this year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its report later on Wednesday.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The 700,000 barrels per day Dangote Petroleum Refinery has begun pricing fuel products for the local market in US Dollars amid crude supply challenges.
The company cited difficulties securing sufficient crude under the government’s Naira-for-crude programme and rising global oil prices as reasons for the development.
The Naira-for-crude programme, launched in October 2024, allowed domestic refiners to purchase crude in the local currency and reduced pressure on the foreign exchange market.
Mr Edwin Devakumar, the vice president of the Dangote Group, said the refinery had been absorbing a currency mismatch by selling products in Naira while sourcing crude in Dollars, but limited crude supply under the Naira-for-crude programme had undermined the arrangement’s viability.
Dangote has now set the ex-depot price of petrol at $0.779 per litre, diesel at $1.087 per litre and aviation fuel at $0.942 per litre, according to a pricing template circulated to marketers.
Although the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited increased Dangote’s allocation to seven cargoes in May from about five previously, the refiner has said it requires 13 to 15 cargoes a month and has been forced to import the remainder at international prices.
The decision could boost demand for Dollars among fuel marketers and make domestic fuel prices more sensitive to exchange-rate fluctuations.
Dangote Refinery is steadily ramping up operations toward full capacity after a gradual start since late 2023. In April alone, it received 21 separate crude cargoes, with all supplies coming from West Africa, mainly Nigerian crude grades, with one cargo from Cameroon; however, it boosted international cargoes in recent months.
The refinery has been broadening the range of crude grades it processes as part of its ambition to operate as a fully merchant refinery. In 2025, about 70 per cent of the refinery’s crude imports came from Nigeria, while 24 per cent originated from the United States.
Dangote plans to double the refinery’s processing capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by the end of 2028, a level that would enable it to process about 80 per cent of Nigeria’s recent crude oil production in a single day.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) is seeking a reduction in import duty exemptions, which rose to N34 trillion, limiting its ability to increase its revenue generation threshold.
The Comptroller-General of the Customs Service, Mr Adewale Adeniyi, disclosed that the value of import duty exemption certificate approvals increased to that level in 2025, describing the policy as one of the major factors restricting its revenue generation.
At an investigative session of the Senate Committee on Finance with revenue-generating agencies in Abuja on Monday, Mr Adeniyi explained that government fiscal policies have continued to impact the revenue-generating capacity of the Customs Service, both positively and negatively.
“The NCS would have generated significantly higher revenue over the years if not for government-approved import duty waivers and other external factors affecting collections,” he said.
He added that the Import Duty Exemption Certificate scheme, introduced in March 2020, accounted for about N34 trillion in approvals in 2025, with nearly 60 per cent covering duty-free importation of military hardware due to Nigeria’s prevailing security challenges.
Other government-backed duty waivers, he noted, covered the importation of Compressed Natural Gas (CNG), electric and hybrid vehicles, healthcare equipment and medical supplies, industrial machinery and manufacturing inputs, as well as food import intervention programmes.
While acknowledging the impact of the waivers on Customs revenue, Mr Adeniyi argued that fiscal policy should not be assessed solely on the basis of revenue generation but also on its broader economic and social objectives.
He, however, urged the federal government to establish stronger monitoring mechanisms to ensure beneficiaries of duty waivers deliver the intended economic outcomes, including lower consumer prices, increased local production and improved healthcare access.
The committee also expressed displeasure over the absence of several heads of government agencies invited to the hearing, including the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA), Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN), Industrial Training Fund (ITF), and the Federal Medical Centre (FMC), Jabi.
The Chairman of the Senate Committee on Finance, Mr Sani Musa, warned that the affected chief executives must appear at the committee’s next sitting or face severe sanctions under the Senate’s rules.
