Economy
NESG Forecasts 3.5% GDP Growth, 21.5% Inflation for Nigeria in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on Wednesday said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product would grow at 3.50 per cent in 2024, with inflation projected to average 21.5 per cent in the year
The group made the forecasts in its 2024 macroeconomic outlook report titled Economic Transformation Roadmap: Medium Term Policy Priorities, launched in Lagos on Wednesday, noting that various reform programmes initiated by the Bola Tinubu-led government are expected to trigger an uptick in economic growth as strains on investment are addressed and low productivity in critical sectors resolved.
It said the services sector will remain the economy’s key driver, while the anticipated rebound of the country’s oil sector will push stronger real GDP growth in 2024.
As of the third quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s economy recorded a growth of 2.54 per cent, showing a slight uptick from the 2.51 per cent observed in the second quarter.
During this period, the oil sector experienced a moderated contraction, and the impact of governmental reforms targeting output enhancement had yet to materialise.
“Based on the optimistic view of a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s economic system and stable outlook, Nigeria is expected to experience inflows of investments into key sectors.
“This will result in improved sectoral productivity and generate significant jobs that would moderate or slow down the growth of unemployment in Nigeria,” the NESG said.
The group also projected the moderation of the inflation rate to 21.5 per cent from an estimated average of 24.5 per cent in 2023.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 28.92 per cent in December 2023 from 28.20 per cent in November.
The NESG said the country will experience moderate inflationary pressure this year, which aligns with that put forward by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, who put his target at 21.4 per cent.
“The slowdown in inflationary pressure will be driven by lower deficit monetisation structurally, relative exchange rate stability, and other heightened monetary measures by the Central Bank. In addition, food inflation will remain the fundamental driver of inflation due to increased cost of credit, insecurity, and internal displacement.
“The removal of fuel subsidies will continue to increase core inflation, primarily through high transport and energy costs,” it said.
It also projected that the rate of unemployment will slow down while anticipating enhanced productivity and output in labour-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, trade, and manufacturing sectors.
“The rate is anticipated to ascend to around 5.0 per cent, while the poverty headcount is expected to approach 41.5 per cent due to improved performance in these job-intensive sectors,” NESG said in its outlook.
With a population growth rate estimated at 3.2 per cent, this trajectory is set to bolster the overall impact of economic growth on real per capita income.
It said the combination of these factors, alongside a consistent policy environment, is expected to strengthen foreign capital inflows in 2024.
The country is positioned to sustain a trade surplus, increase foreign reserves, and experience diminishing exchange rate pressures throughout the year.
The NESG said with diminished political risks and enhanced returns on investments, the likelihood of attracting confident foreign investors and activating funds previously inactive among local investors appears promising.
Economy
LIRS Reminds Companies of Annual Tax Returns Filing Deadline
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of their obligations to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year on or before January 31, 2026.
This reminder was given by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement made available to Business Post on Thursday.
In the notice signed by the chairman of the tax agency, Mr Ayodele Subair, it was stressed that filing the tax returns is an obligation as stipulated in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025.
He explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted.
Mr Subair emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.
According to Section 14 of the NTAA, employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.
“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice.
“Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” he noted.
The LIRS chief disclosed that electronic filing via the organisation’s eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the state.
Employers are therefore required to submit their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.
Dr Subair described the channel as secure, user-friendly, accessible 24/7, and designed to provide employers with a convenient and efficient means of fulfilling their tax obligations, advising firms to ensure that the tax identification number (Tax ID) of all employees is correctly captured in their filings, noting that employees without a Tax ID must generate one promptly to avoid disruptions during the filing process.
Economy
How Investor Confidence Is Reshaping Africa’s Digital Business Landscape
Africa’s business environment is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation. Over the past few years, investor confidence in African-focused digital companies has grown steadily, driven by stronger business fundamentals, improved technology infrastructure, and a deeper understanding of local markets. What was once viewed as a high-risk frontier is increasingly seen as a long-term growth opportunity with scalable returns.
This shift is evident in the types of startups attracting capital today. Investors are backing platforms that combine technology, recurring revenue models, and cross-border appeal—signaling a new phase in how digital businesses are built and funded across the continent.
The Evolution of Venture Capital in Africa
Early venture capital activity in Africa was largely experimental. Funding rounds were modest, timelines were short, and expectations focused on proof of concept rather than long-term scale. Today, the narrative has changed. Investors are deploying larger checks and looking beyond survival metrics toward sustainable growth, operational efficiency, and regional expansion.
Digital-first companies are particularly attractive because they can scale without heavy physical infrastructure. With mobile penetration rising and digital payments becoming more common, African startups now have access to broader audiences than ever before. This scalability has become a key selling point for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets without excessive operational complexity.
Why Digital Platforms Are Drawing Increased Attention
One notable trend is growing investment interest in digital entertainment and online platforms. These businesses benefit from high engagement, repeat usage, and diverse monetization opportunities. Unlike traditional industries, digital platforms can adapt quickly to consumer behavior and expand into new markets with relatively low marginal cost.
Recent investment activity reflects this shift. A clear example is the funding momentum around winna casino, which highlights how investors are backing tech-enabled platforms positioned for global reach rather than local limitation.
The significance of such deals goes beyond the individual company. They point to a broader willingness by investors to support African-linked digital businesses operating at the intersection of technology, finance, and entertainment.
Technology as a Driver of Business Scalability
Technology is no longer just an enabler—it is the core value proposition. Businesses that leverage automation, cloud infrastructure, and data-driven decision-making are better positioned to scale efficiently. This is particularly relevant in Africa, where legacy systems can slow down traditional business models.
Digital platforms reduce friction by offering faster transactions, better user experiences, and real-time insights. From an investor’s perspective, these efficiencies translate into lower operating risk and higher growth potential. Companies that build with scalability in mind from day one are more likely to secure follow-on funding and strategic partnerships.
Africa’s Changing Perception Among Global Investors
Global investors are increasingly reassessing Africa’s role in their portfolios. Rather than viewing the continent solely through the lens of risk, many now see demographic advantage, underpenetrated markets, and long-term consumer growth.
A growing body of international business analysis supports this outlook. Forbes, for instance, has highlighted why global investors are paying closer attention to African tech and digital businesses as part of broader emerging market strategies:
This change in perception is critical. It influences not only the volume of capital flowing into Africa but also the quality—bringing in investors with longer horizons, stronger networks, and deeper operational expertise.
The Importance of Governance and Trust
Despite the optimism, capital is not deployed blindly. Investors remain highly selective, particularly when it comes to governance, compliance, and transparency. Digital businesses operating in regulated or semi-regulated spaces are expected to demonstrate strong internal controls and responsible growth strategies.
For African startups, this means that trust has become a competitive advantage. Companies that invest early in governance structures, risk management, and user protection are better positioned to attract serious institutional capital. In the long term, this focus strengthens the overall business ecosystem.
What This Means for African Entrepreneurs
For founders, the evolving investment climate presents both opportunity and responsibility. Access to capital can accelerate growth, but it also raises expectations around execution, reporting, and accountability. Investors now expect African startups to operate at global standards while maintaining local relevance.
This environment rewards entrepreneurs who think beyond short-term gains and focus on building resilient, scalable businesses. Those who can balance innovation with discipline are more likely to thrive in an increasingly competitive funding landscape.
Looking Ahead
Africa’s digital economy is entering a more mature phase. Venture capital is no longer just fueling ideas—it is shaping business models, governance practices, and long-term strategies. As investor confidence continues to grow, digital platforms that demonstrate scalability, trust, and clear value propositions will define the next chapter of Africa’s business story.
For business leaders, policymakers, and investors alike, one thing is clear: Africa’s digital transformation is not a future promise—it is already underway, and capital is following conviction.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Seeks Naira-For-Crude Policy Expansion
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has called for the expansion of the federal government’s Naira-for-Crude policy, describing this initiative as a strong indication of support for domestic refining.
The newly appointed Managing Director of the oil facility, Mr David Bird, made this call during a press briefing at the refinery complex in Lagos, noting that the scheme has significantly contributed to stabilising the the local currency and should be expanded in Nigeria’s overall economic interest.
“I think it’s a great testimony to the level of government support that we get,” he said on Wednesday.
According to Mr Bird, between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s current crude feedstock is sourced under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement, with ongoing monthly engagements between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to determine suitable crude grades.
“Let’s say between 30 and 40 per cent of our current crude diet is on the crude-for-naira programme. We engage with NNPC monthly on the grades to buy because there is a lot of variability in the Nigerian crude grades.
“So, we have a preference, we have a wish list, and we continue to work with government support to ensure we get the right allocations,” he explained.
Mr Bird noted that while the refinery is optimised for Nigerian crude, supply volumes fluctuate.
He said approximately 30 per cent of crude supply is obtained through the Naira-for-Crude programme, another 30 per cent from Nigerian crudes purchased on the spot market, while the remaining 40 per cent comes from international grades, adding that even at that, the refinery would welcome an expansion of the policy.
“We would always like to enhance the crude-for-naira programme. Even at that level, five cargoes a month, for example, it has contributed to the stabilisation of the naira enormously,” Bird said, in response to a question.
Mr Bird added that the refinery has the capacity to absorb additional crude volumes if allocations are increased, noting that continued engagement with NNPC and the federal government is ongoing.
“We would have the potential to take further grades if and when, and we continue to engage with NNPC and the government on further increasing that,” he said, pointing to global geopolitical uncertainties as a reason Nigeria should prioritise domestic crude supply.
“It is in the country’s interest to supply domestically, because geopolitically it’s a very volatile situation. If Venezuelan crude comes back on the market, for example, it is in Nigeria’s interest to secure an offtaker through domestic refining,” he said.
The Naira-for-Crude policy, which began in October 2024, allows local refineries to purchase crude oil from NNPC in Naira instead of US Dollars. This approach reduces pressure on foreign exchange, lowers transaction costs, stabilises the local currency, and strengthens domestic refining capacity.
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