Connect with us

Economy

NESG Forecasts 3.5% GDP Growth, 21.5% Inflation for Nigeria in 2024

Published

on

hedge against inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on Wednesday said that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product would grow at 3.50 per cent in 2024, with inflation projected to average 21.5 per cent in the year

The group made the forecasts in its 2024 macroeconomic outlook report titled Economic Transformation Roadmap: Medium Term Policy Priorities, launched in Lagos on Wednesday, noting that various reform programmes initiated by the Bola Tinubu-led government are expected to trigger an uptick in economic growth as strains on investment are addressed and low productivity in critical sectors resolved.

It said the services sector will remain the economy’s key driver, while the anticipated rebound of the country’s oil sector will push stronger real GDP growth in 2024.

As of the third quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s economy recorded a growth of 2.54 per cent, showing a slight uptick from the 2.51 per cent observed in the second quarter.

During this period, the oil sector experienced a moderated contraction, and the impact of governmental reforms targeting output enhancement had yet to materialise.

“Based on the optimistic view of a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s economic system and stable outlook, Nigeria is expected to experience inflows of investments into key sectors.

“This will result in improved sectoral productivity and generate significant jobs that would moderate or slow down the growth of unemployment in Nigeria,” the NESG said.

The group also projected the moderation of the inflation rate to 21.5 per cent from an estimated average of 24.5 per cent in 2023.

The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows Nigeria’s annual inflation rate rose to 28.92 per cent in December 2023 from 28.20 per cent in November.

The NESG said the country will experience moderate inflationary pressure this year, which aligns with that put forward by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Olayemi Cardoso, who put his target at 21.4 per cent.

“The slowdown in inflationary pressure will be driven by lower deficit monetisation structurally, relative exchange rate stability, and other heightened monetary measures by the Central Bank. In addition, food inflation will remain the fundamental driver of inflation due to increased cost of credit, insecurity, and internal displacement.

“The removal of fuel subsidies will continue to increase core inflation, primarily through high transport and energy costs,” it said.

It also projected that the rate of unemployment will slow down while anticipating enhanced productivity and output in labour-intensive sectors such as construction, agriculture, trade, and manufacturing sectors.

“The rate is anticipated to ascend to around 5.0 per cent, while the poverty headcount is expected to approach 41.5 per cent due to improved performance in these job-intensive sectors,” NESG said in its outlook.

With a population growth rate estimated at 3.2 per cent, this trajectory is set to bolster the overall impact of economic growth on real per capita income.

It said the combination of these factors, alongside a consistent policy environment, is expected to strengthen foreign capital inflows in 2024.

The country is positioned to sustain a trade surplus, increase foreign reserves, and experience diminishing exchange rate pressures throughout the year.

The NESG said with diminished political risks and enhanced returns on investments, the likelihood of attracting confident foreign investors and activating funds previously inactive among local investors appears promising.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Economy

Naira Down Again at NAFEX, Trades N1,359/$1

Published

on

Naira-Yuan Currency Swap Deal

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira further weakened against the Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) for the fourth straight session this week on Thursday, February 26.

At the official market yesterday, the Nigerian Naira lost N3.71 or 0.27 per cent to trade at N1,359.82/$1 compared with the previous session’s N1,356.11/$1.

In the same vein, the local currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window on Thursday by N8.27 to close at N1,843.23/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1,834.96/£1, and against the Euro, it crashed by N8.30 to quote at N1,606.89/€1, in contrast to the midweek’s closing price of N1,598.59/€1.

But at the GTBank forex desk, the exchange rate of the Naira to the Dollar remained unchanged at N1,367/$1, and also at the parallel market, it maintained stability at N1,365/$1.

The continuation of the decline of the Nigerian currency is attributed to a surge in foreign payments that have outpaced the available Dollars in the FX market.

In a move to address the ongoing shortfall at the official window, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) intervened by selling $100 million to banks and dealers on Tuesday.

However, the FX support failed to reverse the trend, though analysts see no cause for alarm, given that the authority recently mopped up foreign currency to achieve balance and it is still within the expected trading range of N1,350 and N1,450/$1.

As for the cryptocurrency market, major tokens posted losses over the last 24 hours as traders continued to de-risk alongside equities following Nvidia’s earnings-driven pullback, with Ripple (XRP) down by 2.7 per cent to $1.40, and Dogecoin (DOGE) down by 1.6 per cent to $0.0098.

Further, Litecoin (LTC) declined by 1.3 per cent to $55.87, Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 0.9 per cent to $2,036.89, Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled by 0.7 per cent to $67,708.21, Cardano (ADA) slumped by 0.6 per cent to $0.2924, and Solana (SOL) depreciated by 0.4 per cent to $87.22, while Binance Coin (BNB) gained 0.4 per cent to sell for $629.95, with the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closing flat at $1.00 each.

Continue Reading

Economy

Crude Oil Falls as Geopolitical Risk Around Iran Clouds Supply Outlook

Published

on

Crude Oil Loan Facility

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil settled lower on Thursday as investors tracked developments in talks between the United States and Iran over the latter’s nuclear programme, weighing potential supply concerns if hostilities escalate.

Brent crude futures lost 10 cents or 0.14 per cent to close at $70.75 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by 21 cents or 0.32 per cent to $65.21 a barrel.

The US and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday over their long-running nuclear dispute to avert a conflict after US President Donald Trump ordered a military build-up in the region.

Prices had gained earlier in the session after media reports indicated the talks had stalled over US insistence on zero enrichment of uranium by Iran, as well as a demand for the delivery of all 60 per cent-enriched uranium to the US.

However, prices then retreated after the two countries extended talks into next week, reducing the immediate strike potential.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, who confirmed talks will continue next week, said Thursday’s talks were the most serious exchanges with the US yet, saying Iran clearly laid out its demand for lifting sanctions and the process for relief.

His counterpart from Oman, who is handling the talks, said significant progress was made in Thursday’s talks. The Omani minister’s upbeat assessment followed indirect talks between Iranian Foreign Minister and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Geneva, with one session in the morning and the second in the afternoon.

He will also hold talks with US Vice President JD Vance and other US officials in Washington on Friday.

The Trump administration has insisted that Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for armed groups in the region must be part of the negotiations.

The American President said on February 19 that Iran must make a deal in 10 to 15 days, warning that “really bad things” would otherwise happen.

On Tuesday, he briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech, underlining that while he preferred a diplomatic solution, he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, the US continues to amass forces in the Middle Eastern region, with the military saying it is prepared to execute orders given by the US President.

Continue Reading

Economy

Why Transparency Matters in Your Choice of a Financial Broker

Published

on

HFM financial broker

Choosing a Forex broker is essentially picking a partner to hold the wallet. In 2026, the market is flooded with flashy ads promising massive leverage and “zero fees,” but most of that is just noise. Real transparency is becoming a rare commodity. It isn’t just a corporate buzzword; it’s the only way a trader can be sure they aren’t playing against a stacked deck. If a broker’s operations are a black box, the trader is flying blind, which is a guaranteed way to blow an account.

The Scam of “Zero Commissions”

The first place transparency falls apart is in the pricing. Many brokers scream about “zero commissions” to get people through the door, but they aren’t running a charity. If they aren’t charging a flat fee, they are almost certainly hiding their profit in bloated spreads or “slippage.” A trader might hit buy at one price and get filled at a significantly worse one without any explanation. This acts as a silent tax on every trade. A transparent broker doesn’t hide the bill; they provide a live, auditable breakdown of costs so the trader can actually calculate their edge.

The Conflict of Market Making

It is vital to know who is on the other side of the screen. Many brokers act as “Market Makers,” which is a polite way of saying they win when the trader loses. This creates a massive conflict of interest. There is little incentive for a broker to provide fast execution if a client’s profit hurts their own bottom line. A broker with nothing to hide is open about using an ECN or STP model, simply passing orders to the big banks and taking a small, visible fee. If a broker refuses to disclose their execution model, they are likely betting against their own clients.

Regulation as a Safety Net

Transparency is worthless without an actual watchdog. A broker that values its reputation leads with its licenses from heavy-hitters like the FCA or ASIC. They don’t bury their regulatory status in the fine print or hide behind “offshore” jurisdictions with zero oversight. More importantly, they provide proof that client funds are kept in segregated accounts. This ensures that if the broker goes bust, the money doesn’t go to their creditors—it stays with the trader. Without this level of openness, capital is essentially unprotected.

The Withdrawal Litmus Test

The ultimate test of a broker’s transparency is how they handle the exit. There are countless horror stories of traders growing an account only to find that “technical errors” or vague “bonus terms” prevent them from withdrawing their money. A legitimate broker has clear, public rules for getting funds out and doesn’t hide behind a wall of unreturned emails. If a platform makes it difficult to see the exit strategy, it’s a sign that the front door should have stayed closed.

Conclusion

In 2026, honesty is the most valuable feature a broker can offer. It is the foundation that allows a trader to focus on the charts instead of worrying if their stops are being hunted. Finding a partner with clear pricing, honest execution, and real regulation is the first trade that has to be won. Flashy marketing is easy to find, but transparency is what actually keeps a trader in the game for the long haul.

Continue Reading

Trending